Carson Palmquist

P Rochester Red Wings

Age 26 LHP 6'3" / 206 lbs AAA peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

AAASP40-MANFG #940

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	27	27	118	3.98	3.84	29.0%	12.1%	—	K 23.8% · BB 12.2% · FIP 4.54
2025	24	MIX2 levels	35	17	112	5.95	4.71	23.6%	13.1%	-0.2	K 21.0% · BB 12.2% · FIP 4.63
2026	25	MIX2 levels	35	14	58	6.05	3.79	19.3%	13.0%	0.5	K 17.4% · BB 12.0% · FIP 3.80
2027PROJ	26	MLBWSH	24	24	142	5.19	5.22	17.9%	12.6%	-0.5
2028PROJ64% MLB	27	MLBWSH	15	15	92	5.14	5.16	18.3%	12.1%	-0.3
2029PROJ76% MLB	28	MLBWSH	18	18	109	5.14	5.18	18.5%	12.0%	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.3 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

Whiff%30

K%30

xwOBA vs29

FB Velo10

CompsDan Meyer (age 26) · Irwin Delgado (age 26) · Brad Mills (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116124vR 132

ERA5.19

FIP5.22

K%17.9%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%5.4%

Proj IP142

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 142 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL2045

CMD4045

K†4045

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.2

Whiff%

p3022.5%

p3019.2%

xwOBA vs

p290.337

SL+1.3 (31%)

SI (10%)

CH (3%)

CT-4.6 (13%)

FB-14.1 (52%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	1	0	1	5	1	2	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	40.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.48	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	1	0	1	5	1	2	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	40.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	0.00	7.10	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	92	391	134	37	13	100%	4.9	26.7%	10.8%	15.9%	3.9%	3.90	4.37	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	92	391	134	37	13	100%	4.9	34.3%	9.5%	24.8%	3.3%	3.90	3.23	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	118	496	144	60	15	100%	4.4	23.8%	12.2%	11.6%	3.5%	3.98	4.54	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	118	496	144	60	15	100%	4.4	23.8%	12.2%	11.6%	3.5%	3.98	4.54	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	118	496	144	60	15	100%	4.4	29.0%	12.1%	16.9%	3.0%	3.98	3.84	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	17	112	513	121	67	17	49%	3.2	21.0%	12.2%	8.8%	3.2%	5.95	4.63	-0.1
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	17	112	513	121	67	17	49%	3.2	21.0%	12.2%	8.8%	3.2%	5.95	4.63	-0.1
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	17	112	513	121	67	17	49%	3.2	23.6%	13.1%	10.5%	3.3%	5.95	4.71	-0.2
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	14	58	269	52	35	3	40%	1.7	17.4%	12.0%	5.4%	1.2%	6.05	3.80	+0.5
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	14	58	269	52	35	3	40%	1.7	17.4%	12.0%	5.4%	1.2%	6.05	3.80	+0.5
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	14	58	269	52	35	3	40%	1.7	19.3%	13.0%	6.3%	1.1%	6.05	3.79	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			20	13	51	253	42	33	11	65%	2.5	16.6%	13.0%	3.6%	4.3%	8.53	6.22	-0.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	WSH	24	24	142	600	108	75	18	100%	5.9	17.9%	12.6%	5.4%	3.0%	5.19	5.22	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	WSH	24	24	144	608	111	74	19	100%	6.0	18.3%	12.1%	6.2%	3.1%	5.14	5.16	-0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	WSH	24	24	144	608	112	73	19	100%	6.0	18.5%	12.0%	6.5%	3.2%	5.14	5.18	-0.5
2030	29	MLB MLE	WSH	23	23	137	580	105	69	19	100%	6.0	18.1%	12.0%	6.1%	3.3%	5.21	5.29	-0.6
2031	30	MLB MLE	WSH	22	22	129	546	95	66	19	100%	5.9	17.5%	12.2%	5.3%	3.5%	5.36	5.47	-0.8
2028	27	MLB CTX	WSH	15	15	92	388	71	47	12	100%	6.1	18.3%	12.1%	6.2%	3.1%	5.14	5.16	-0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	WSH	18	18	109	460	85	55	15	100%	6.1	18.5%	12.0%	6.5%	3.2%	5.14	5.18	-0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	WSH	19	19	113	477	86	57	16	100%	5.9	18.1%	12.0%	6.1%	3.3%	5.21	5.29	-0.5
2031	30	MLB CTX	WSH	18	18	111	469	82	57	16	100%	6.2	17.5%	12.2%	5.3%	3.5%	5.36	5.47	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		91	84	476	2049	367	249	70	92%	5.2	17.9%	12.2%	5.7%	3.4%	5.57	5.01	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	35	200	861	154	105	29	92%	5.2	17.9%	12.2%	5.7%	3.4%	5.57	5.01	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		117	77	381	1674	378	200	52	66%	3.3	22.6%	11.9%	10.7%	3.1%	4.84	4.42	-3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	40	200	879	199	105	27	66%	3.3	22.6%	11.9%	10.7%	3.1%	4.84	4.42	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carson Palmquist (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.22	17.9%	12.6%	3.0%	—	5.21	18.3%	6.3%	425	-0.01	—	—	—
Dan Meyer L 2007 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	13.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.316	4.35	20.6%	11.8%	86	-0.41	3.73	112	77
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	71
Brad Mills L 2011 · 5.37 FIP	26	SP-	5.37	19.8%	12.1%	4.4%	.328	5.61	18.8%	7.9%	21	+0.24	4.22	243	71
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	69
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	68
Vidal Nuño L 2013 · 4.35 FIP	26	SP-	4.35	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.215	4.24	19.7%	14.3%	366	-0.11	4.00	606	67
Zac Lowther L 2022 · 5.67 FIP	26	SP-	5.67	17.8%	10.6%	5.0%	.436	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	375	67
Brian Tallet L 2003 · 4.65 FIP	25	SP-	4.65	10.3%	9.2%	2.3%	.309	4.43	16.2%	4.4%	54	-0.22	2.59	443	67
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	66
Sean Nolin L 2015 · 4.88 FIP	25	SP	4.88	14.5%	9.5%	3.3%	.273	3.79	20.7%	11.3%	40	-1.09	3.79	309	65
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	65
Houston Harding L 2024 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	16.5%	11.2%	2.6%	.268	5.19	12.0%	0.5%	61	+0.65	3.41	239	65
Hayden Wynja L 2024 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP-	4.79	18.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.74	154	64
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	64
Nick Dombkowski L 2024 · 4.92 FIP	25	SW	4.92	16.5%	10.9%	3.3%	.273	5.17	18.2%	10.6%	183	+0.25	3.71	425	64
Chaz Hebert L 2017 · 4.46 FIP	24	SP-	4.46	15.6%	8.7%	2.9%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	167	62
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	62
Mitch Stallings L 2021 · 5.48 FIP	26	SW	5.48	16.8%	11.5%	4.3%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.18	108	61
Pat Misch L 2008 · 5.05 FIP	26	SW	5.05	16.5%	5.7%	4.8%	.268	4.53	10.8%	5.4%	100	-0.52	3.50	265	61
Lenny DiNardo L 2006 · 5.34 FIP	26	SW	5.34	8.9%	10.0%	3.2%	.372	4.68	10.1%	0.9%	176	-0.66	2.76	257	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	125	18.0%	12.2%	1.28	5.43
Don Black ('43-'48, 0 WAR*)	4.0	133	17.4%*	10.4%*	1.28*	5.32*
Mysterious Walker ('10-'15, -1 WAR*)	1.5	99	20.6%*	11.4%*	1.25*	5.38*
Gene Dale ('11-'16, -1 WAR*)	2.2	148	17.7%*	12.6%*	1.45*	5.30*
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Robert Person ('03)	4.5	128	19.8%	11.2%	1.29	4.64
Luke Hudson ('07)	1.2	81	15.2%	11.5%	0.96	5.11