Bradley Blalock

P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 213 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX3 levels	27	24	120	4.64	4.39	19.1%	9.4%	1.4	K 15.9% · BB 10.1% · FIP 5.10
2025	24	MIX2 levels	29	27	119	8.97	6.26	13.8%	10.0%	-1.1	K 12.5% · BB 9.4% · FIP 5.81
2026	25	MIX2 levels	28	23	121	5.56	5.09	21.6%	9.2%	0.4	K 18.3% · BB 8.4% · FIP 5.23
2027PROJ	26	MLBMIA	12	12	69	6.18	5.97	14.7%	11.2%	-0.4
2028PROJ91% MLB	27	MLBMIA	8	8	50	6.07	6.00	14.7%	11.2%	-0.3
2029PROJ93% MLB	28	MLBMIA	5	5	31	6.08	6.09	14.5%	11.4%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.7 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control40Command20FB velo50

CompsDarrell Rasner (age 26) · Hiram Burgos (age 25) · Noah Song (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 147138vR 130

ERA6.18

FIP5.97

K%14.7%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%3.5%

Proj IP78

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD2020

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	4	3	7	29	4	4	0	75%	1.7	13.8%	13.8%	0.0%	0.0%	6.75	3.68	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	4	3	7	29	4	4	0	75%	1.7	13.8%	13.8%	0.0%	0.0%	6.75	3.70	—
2021	20	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	23	23	86	390	85	36	5	100%	3.8	16.1%	10.9%	5.2%	1.9%	4.27	4.18	—
2021	20	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	23	23	86	390	85	36	5	100%	3.8	21.8%	9.2%	12.6%	1.3%	4.27	3.13	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	67	271	75	20	7	100%	4.5	21.1%	8.5%	12.5%	3.2%	2.82	4.14	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	15	67	271	75	20	7	100%	4.5	27.7%	7.4%	20.3%	2.6%	2.82	3.11	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	24	120	524	100	49	16	89%	4.5	15.9%	10.1%	5.8%	3.7%	4.64	5.10	+0.4
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	24	120	524	100	49	16	89%	4.5	15.9%	10.1%	5.8%	3.7%	4.64	5.10	+0.4
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	24	120	524	100	49	16	89%	4.5	19.1%	9.4%	9.7%	3.1%	4.64	4.39	+1.4
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	27	119	572	79	57	28	93%	4.1	12.5%	9.4%	3.2%	4.7%	8.97	5.81	-0.6
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	27	119	572	79	57	28	93%	4.1	12.5%	9.4%	3.2%	4.7%	8.97	5.81	-0.6
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	27	119	572	79	57	28	93%	4.1	13.8%	10.0%	3.8%	4.9%	8.97	6.26	-1.1
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	23	121	533	115	49	25	82%	4.3	18.3%	8.4%	9.9%	4.8%	5.56	5.23	+0.2
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	23	121	533	115	49	25	82%	4.3	18.3%	8.4%	9.9%	4.8%	5.56	5.23	+0.2
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	23	121	533	115	49	25	82%	4.3	21.6%	9.2%	12.4%	4.7%	5.56	5.09	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			25	18	101	470	59	46	25	72%	4.0	12.6%	9.8%	2.8%	5.3%	7.87	6.53	-1.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	MIA	12	12	69	291	43	32	12	100%	5.8	14.7%	11.2%	3.5%	4.2%	6.18	5.97	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIA	9	9	54	230	34	26	10	100%	6.1	14.7%	11.2%	3.4%	4.3%	6.07	6.00	-0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIA	6	6	33	141	20	16	6	100%	5.5	14.5%	11.4%	3.2%	4.4%	6.08	6.09	-0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	MIA	4	4	23	98	14	11	4	100%	5.8	14.0%	11.6%	2.3%	4.5%	6.18	6.25	-0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	MIA	3	3	18	77	10	9	4	100%	6.1	13.2%	11.9%	1.3%	4.7%	6.35	6.46	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIA	8	8	50	211	31	24	9	100%	6.2	14.7%	11.2%	3.4%	4.3%	6.07	6.00	-0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIA	5	5	31	131	19	15	6	100%	6.2	14.5%	11.4%	3.2%	4.4%	6.08	6.09	-0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	MIA	4	4	22	93	13	11	4	100%	5.5	14.0%	11.6%	2.3%	4.5%	6.18	6.25	-0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	MIA	3	3	17	72	10	9	3	100%	5.7	13.2%	11.9%	1.3%	4.7%	6.35	6.46	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		45	38	220	975	131	104	47	84%	4.9	13.5%	10.6%	2.8%	4.8%	6.93	5.97	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	34	200	885	119	94	43	84%	4.9	13.5%	10.6%	2.8%	4.8%	6.93	5.97	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		126	115	521	2319	376	221	88	91%	4.1	16.2%	9.5%	6.7%	3.8%	5.58	5.02	-2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	44	200	890	144	85	34	91%	4.1	16.2%	9.5%	6.7%	3.8%	5.58	5.02	-2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 110 IPFIP 4.86 → 5.23 (+0.37)K% 21.2% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.24%	—	×0.860	18.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.28%	—	×0.900	8.35%
HR / BF /BF	4.33%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.76%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.86 → 5.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 61 IPFIP 5.15 → 5.37 (+0.22)K% 17.5% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.51%	—	×0.860	15.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.78%	—	×0.900	10.61%
HR / BF /BF	3.70%	÷1.017	×1.100	4.01%

Result: FIP 5.15 → 5.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAHartford Yard Goats · 87 IPFIP 4.15 → 5.14 (+0.99)K% 20.7% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.71%	—	×0.810	16.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.90%	—	×1.100	8.69%
HR / BF /BF	3.27%	÷0.916	×1.200	4.28%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 4.15 → 5.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 49 IPFIP 3.51 → 4.49 (+0.98)K% 25.7% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.73%	—	×0.770	19.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.77%	—	×1.150	8.93%
HR / BF /BF	2.91%	÷1.033	×1.250	3.52%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 3.51 → 4.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ASalem Red Sox · 18 IPFIP 1.87 → 3.00 (+1.14)K% 33.8% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.85%	—	×0.740	25.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.15%	—	×1.180	7.26%
HR / BF /BF	1.54%	÷0.999	×1.300	2.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.87 → 3.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ASalem Red Sox · 86 IPFIP 3.13 → 4.18 (+1.05)K% 21.8% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.79%	—	×0.740	16.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.23%	—	×1.180	10.89%
HR / BF /BF	1.28%	÷0.858	×1.300	1.94%

Result: FIP 3.13 → 4.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKGCL Red Sox · 7 IPFIP 3.68 → 4.49 (+0.81)K% 13.8% → 9.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.79%	—	×0.680	9.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.79%	—	×1.250	17.24%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.68 → 4.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bradley Blalock (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.97	14.7%	11.2%	4.2%	—	6.08	14.5%	3.1%	111	+0.11	—	—	—
Darrell Rasner R 2007 · 5.15 FIP	26	SP	5.15	9.9%	7.2%	3.6%	.284	4.43	13.1%	5.7%	113	-0.72	4.07	158	75
Hiram Burgos R 2013 · 4.89 FIP	25	SP	4.89	12.9%	7.9%	3.4%	.314	3.73	18.0%	8.7%	293	-1.16	3.40	384	73
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.80	19.8%	8.3%	116	-2.26	3.68	138	73
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	72
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	71
Seth Shuman R 2024 · 5.47 FIP	26	SP	5.47	14.1%	8.0%	4.7%	.273	4.61	17.0%	11.3%	157	-0.86	3.16	357	71
Kohei Arihara R 2021 · 6.04 FIP	28	SP	6.04	13.5%	7.3%	5.8%	.262	4.58	16.4%	9.2%	94	-1.46	4.58	135	70
Josh Hancock R 2004 · 6.37 FIP	26	SP-	6.37	12.3%	8.9%	5.8%	.262	4.15	14.7%	8.6%	104	-2.22	3.57	167	68
Nelson Figueroa R 2000 · 6.39 FIP	26	SP	6.39	10.3%	7.4%	5.9%	.250	4.88	14.2%	6.2%	217	-1.51	3.71	499	68
Kurt Ainsworth R 2004 · 5.84 FIP	25	SP	5.84	13.2%	13.2%	4.0%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	125	68
Justin Dunn R 2022 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	16.1%	12.9%	4.9%	.267	5.29	18.8%	4.1%	49	-0.77	3.54	607	68
Parker Dunshee R 2021 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	16.8%	8.4%	4.1%	.297	5.27	19.9%	9.2%	236	+0.26	2.29	598	67
Spencer Jones R 2019 · 5.49 FIP	24	SP	5.49	14.9%	8.9%	4.6%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	171	67
Shane McCarthy R 2021 · 5.47 FIP	25	SP	5.47	18.9%	11.9%	4.5%	.240	8.32	14.3%	3.9%	18	+2.85	2.07	117	67
Cha Seung Baek R 2006 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP	5.24	16.4%	9.3%	4.3%	.204	3.97	15.3%	9.6%	214	-1.27	3.35	280	67
Justin Miller R 2004 · 5.41 FIP	26	SP-	5.41	12.5%	10.4%	3.7%	.316	2.63	28.6%	21.7%	62	-2.78	2.63	373	67
Seth Etherton R 2003 · 4.85 FIP	26	SP	4.85	11.7%	9.7%	2.8%	.318	5.78	13.5%	6.7%	18	+0.93	4.85	108	67
Vladimir Gutierrez R 2022 · 5.63 FIP	26	SP-	5.63	16.2%	12.8%	4.1%	.319	6.28	12.5%	-7.1%	13	+0.65	4.03	567	66
Chance Kirby R 2021 · 5.83 FIP	26	SP-	5.83	15.1%	10.0%	5.0%	.242	4.59	18.5%	11.2%	138	-1.24	4.14	325	66
Paul Rigdon R 2001 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP	5.34	13.6%	11.1%	3.6%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	5.29	167	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	44	13.8%	10.9%	1.81	6.71
Steve Shields ('85-'89, -3 WAR*)	1.1	55	17.0%*	9.0%*	1.61*	5.49*
Mike Wright Jr. ('21)	1.4	55	17.4%	8.8%	1.47	5.97
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*
Lance Painter ('03)	2.2	56	16.7%	9.0%	1.32	5.24
Wayne Franklin ('06)	1.6	81	14.8%	11.5%	1.59	5.54
Mike Willis ('77-'81, 0 WAR*)	1.5	59	18.4%*	9.6%*	1.45*	4.77*