Vladimir Gutierrez
P
Worcester Red Sox
Age 30
RHP
6'1" / 205 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION7 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.75
FIP4.85
xFIP4.93
SIERA4.55
K%20.8%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%9.6%
IP7
K†5050
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
FB Velo
p2692.8
Whiff%
p1018.0%
K%
p1016.2%
xwOBA vs
p100.369
FB (34%)
CH (26%)
CU (11%)
SL (29%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | A+ | Daytona Tortugas | 19 | 19 | 103 | 434 | 94 | 19 | 10 | 16.7% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 4.46 | 4.16 | +1.5 |
| 2018 | 22 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 27 | 27 | 147 | 624 | 145 | 37 | 18 | 18.8% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 4.35 | 4.66 | +1.3 |
| 2019 | 23 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 27 | 27 | 137 | 610 | 117 | 46 | 26 | 16.9% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 6.04 | 5.49 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 25 | 25 | 131 | 563 | 109 | 53 | 23 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 3.9% | 4.47 | 4.83 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 10 | 8 | 37 | 179 | 29 | 23 | 8 | 16.2% | 12.8% | 4.2% | 7.61 | 5.68 | -0.5 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 5 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 25.9% | 22.2% | 3.7% | 5.68 | 5.76 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 8 | 2 | 17 | 86 | 14 | 17 | 3 | 12.8% | 22.8% | 3.2% | 9.72 | 6.68 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 7 | — | 7 | 29 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 20.8% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 4.75 | 4.85 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 17 | 10 | 3 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.3% | 4.95 | 5.08 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 121 | 109 | 578 | 2523 | 446 | 213 | 105 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 4.2% | 5.17 | 4.96 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 38 | 200 | 874 | 154 | 74 | 36 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 4.2% | 5.17 | 4.96 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Vladimir Gutierrez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.85 | 20.8% | 11.2% | 3.1% | — | 5.08 | 20.1% | 8.5% | 20 | +0.23 | — | — | — |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 85 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 78 |
| Jean Machi R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 76 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.18 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .349 | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 76 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 76 |
| Casey Coleman R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.91 | 16.8% | 11.4% | 3.2% | .343 | 4.99 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 107 | +0.08 | 2.86 | 306 | 76 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2029 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 76 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.61 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.71 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.90 | 3.62 | 164 | 75 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 75 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 74 |
| Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 74 |
| Chris Leroux R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 74 |
| Bryan Mitchell R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.49 | 20.6% | 12.0% | 2.9% | .305 | 5.01 | 14.4% | 3.9% | 39 | +0.52 | 2.70 | 481 | 74 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.22 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 4.3% | .333 | 4.92 | 15.8% | 7.4% | 182 | -0.30 | 2.32 | 676 | 74 |
| Tyler Herron R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.17 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .377 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 117 | 74 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.76 | 19.6% | 12.3% | 3.2% | .292 | 3.91 | 19.2% | 10.9% | 25 | -0.85 | 2.82 | 536 | 73 |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 73 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2029 · 5.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 5.47 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.3% | .300 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.23 | 3.83 | 208 | 73 |
| Wil Browning R 2024 · 4.58 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.58 | 17.9% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.12 | 162 | 72 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 72 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.