Vladimir Gutierrez

P Worcester Red Sox

Age 31 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	26	MLBCIN	10	8	37	7.61	6.24	16.2%	12.8%	-0.3
2023	27	MIX2 levels	5	1	6	5.68	5.78	25.9%	22.2%	—	K 25.9% · BB 22.2% · FIP 5.76
2024	28	MIX2 levels	8	2	17	9.72	6.82	16.3%	19.8%	-0.4	K 12.5% · BB 19.6% · FIP 6.28
2025	29	No MLB games played
2026	30	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	31	MLBMIA	1	1	5	4.66	4.74	21.3%	10.7%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	32	MLBMIA	3	3	17	4.86	5.00	20.5%	11.1%	0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	33	MLBMIA	4	4	21	5.11	5.28	19.7%	11.6%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2022

FB Velo26

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsZack Segovia (age 32) · Tyler Herron (age 30) · Stan Spencer (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA4.66

FIP4.74

K%21.3%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%10.6%

Proj IP51

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2692.8

Whiff%

p1018.0%

p1016.2%

xwOBA vs

p100.369

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	21	A+ MLE	Daytona Tortugas	19	19	103	434	94	19	10	100%	5.4	16.7%	5.0%	11.6%	3.1%	4.46	4.03	—
2017	21	A+ RAW	Daytona Tortugas	19	19	103	434	94	19	10	100%	5.4	21.7%	4.4%	17.3%	2.3%	4.46	3.09	—
2018	22	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	27	27	147	624	145	37	18	100%	5.4	18.8%	6.5%	12.3%	3.8%	4.35	4.43	—
2018	22	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	27	27	147	624	145	37	18	100%	5.4	23.2%	5.9%	17.3%	2.9%	4.35	3.47	—
2019	23	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	27	27	137	610	117	46	26	100%	5.1	16.9%	7.9%	9.0%	4.9%	6.04	5.37	—
2019	23	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	27	27	137	610	117	46	26	100%	5.1	19.2%	7.5%	11.6%	4.3%	6.04	4.87	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	131	563	109	53	23	100%	5.2	18.9%	9.5%	9.4%	3.8%	4.47	4.80	+0.9
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	131	563	109	53	23	100%	5.2	19.4%	9.4%	9.9%	4.1%	4.47	4.93	+0.7
2022	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	10	8	37	179	29	23	8	80%	3.7	16.2%	12.8%	3.4%	4.1%	7.61	5.63	-0.1
2022	26	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	10	8	37	179	29	23	8	80%	3.7	16.2%	12.8%	3.4%	4.5%	7.61	6.24	-0.3
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	1	6	27	7	6	1	20%	1.3	25.9%	22.2%	3.7%	3.7%	5.68	5.76	—
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	1	6	27	7	6	1	20%	1.3	25.9%	22.2%	3.7%	3.7%	5.68	5.78	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	2	17	86	14	17	3	25%	2.1	12.5%	19.6%	-7.1%	3.2%	9.72	6.28	-0.3
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	2	17	86	14	17	3	25%	2.1	12.5%	19.6%	-7.1%	3.2%	9.72	6.28	-0.3
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	2	17	86	14	17	3	25%	2.1	16.3%	19.8%	-3.5%	3.5%	9.72	6.82	-0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			33	30	155	692	121	71	29	91%	4.7	17.5%	10.3%	7.2%	4.2%	5.47	5.35	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	MIA	1	1	5	21	5	2	1	100%	5.0	21.3%	10.7%	10.6%	3.1%	4.66	4.74	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	MIA	8	8	46	193	40	21	6	100%	5.7	20.5%	11.1%	9.4%	3.4%	4.86	5.00	+0.2
2029	33	MLB MLE	MIA	6	6	38	158	31	18	6	100%	6.2	19.7%	11.6%	8.1%	3.6%	5.11	5.28	+0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	MIA	3	3	17	72	15	8	2	100%	5.7	20.5%	11.1%	9.4%	3.4%	4.86	5.00	+0.1
2029	33	MLB CTX	MIA	4	4	21	89	17	10	3	100%	5.2	19.7%	11.6%	8.1%	3.6%	5.11	5.28	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		39	36	192	850	153	89	35	92%	4.9	18.0%	10.5%	7.5%	4.1%	5.38	5.14	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	38	200	885	159	93	36	92%	4.9	18.0%	10.5%	7.5%	4.1%	5.38	5.14	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		121	109	578	2523	446	210	100	90%	4.8	17.7%	8.3%	9.4%	4.0%	5.17	4.83	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	38	200	874	154	73	35	90%	4.8	17.7%	8.3%	9.4%	4.0%	5.17	4.83	+0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 13 IPFIP 6.22 → 6.28 (+0.06)K% 14.5% → 12.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.49%	—	×0.860	12.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	21.74%	—	×0.900	19.57%
HR / BF /BF	2.90%	÷0.996	×1.100	3.20%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 6.22 → 6.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAALouisville Bats · 17 IPFIP 4.23 → 4.65 (+0.41)K% 31.3% → 27.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.34%	—	×0.880	27.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.45%	—	×1.050	10.97%
HR / BF /BF	4.48%	÷1.088	×1.100	4.53%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 118).

Result: FIP 4.23 → 4.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAALouisville Bats · 137 IPFIP 4.78 → 5.37 (+0.59)K% 19.2% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.18%	—	×0.880	16.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.54%	—	×1.050	7.92%
HR / BF /BF	4.26%	÷0.957	×1.100	4.90%

Result: FIP 4.78 → 5.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 147 IPFIP 3.47 → 4.43 (+0.95)K% 23.2% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.24%	—	×0.810	18.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.93%	—	×1.100	6.52%
HR / BF /BF	2.88%	÷0.909	×1.200	3.81%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 3.47 → 4.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Daytona Tortugas · 103 IPFIP 3.09 → 4.03 (+0.94)K% 21.7% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.66%	—	×0.770	16.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.38%	—	×1.150	5.03%
HR / BF /BF	2.30%	÷0.932	×1.250	3.09%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 86).

Result: FIP 3.09 → 4.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Vladimir Gutierrez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	21.3%	10.7%	3.1%	—	5.13	20.1%	8.8%	83	+0.39	—	—	—
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	74
Tyler Herron R 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	16.4%	8.7%	2.2%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	117	72
Stan Spencer R 2000 · 4.42 FIP	30	SP	4.42	19.2%	8.7%	3.4%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	119	68
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	68
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	67
André Rienzo R 2019 · 5.33 FIP	31	SP	5.33	17.9%	11.8%	4.1%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	321	66
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	64
Jose Samayoa R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP	4.05	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	262	64
Joe Biagini R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	31	SP	4.80	18.0%	10.6%	3.4%	.309	4.53	16.4%	6.6%	39	-0.27	2.66	624	63
Dennis O'Grady R 2019 · 3.62 FIP	30	SP	3.62	17.2%	8.1%	1.7%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	63
Daniel Guerrero R 2016 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	12.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.328	4.93	11.7%	2.0%	175	+0.12	4.61	269	62
Patrick Johnson R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	15.7%	9.3%	2.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	248	62
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	61
Chuck Smith R 2001 · 3.99 FIP	31	SP	3.99	18.4%	8.1%	2.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	211	61
Matt Buschmann R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	31	SP	4.03	17.2%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	4.84	12.8%	4.4%	142	+0.81	4.03	277	61
Andres Ivan Meza R 2017 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	12.5%	8.5%	1.8%	.351	4.33	11.7%	4.0%	89	+0.19	4.14	275	61
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2016 · 4.92 FIP	31	SP-	4.92	14.9%	7.2%	4.0%	.277	5.19	16.3%	8.8%	259	+0.27	3.97	567	60
Danny Gutierrez R 2017 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	15.1%	6.1%	2.8%	.362	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	239	60
Hector Galvan R 2019 · 4.84 FIP	31	SP-	4.84	14.3%	12.2%	2.6%	.357	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	406	60
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	58	18.9%	10.7%	1.47	5.18
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Steve Shields ('85-'89, -3 WAR*)	1.1	55	17.0%*	9.0%*	1.61*	5.49*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Collin Balester ('15)	1.0	50	17.4%	10.1%	1.75	5.47
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Buddy Carlyle ('15)	1.5	58	18.5%	8.5%	1.32	5.14