Vladimir Gutierrez
P
Worcester Red Sox
+0.0
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'1" / 205 lbs
AAA
ERA4.70
FIP4.70
xFIP4.93
SIERA4.55
K%21.9%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%10.7%
IP10
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
K†5050
FB Velo
p2692.8
Whiff%
p1018.0%
K%
p1016.2%
xwOBA vs
p100.369
FB (34%)
CH (26%)
CU (11%)
SL (29%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | A+ | Daytona Tortugas | 19 | 19 | 103 | 434 | 94 | 19 | 10 | 16.7% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.01 | +1.5 |
| 2018 | 22 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 27 | 27 | 147 | 624 | 145 | 37 | 18 | 18.8% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 4.35 | 4.37 | +1.5 |
| 2019 | 23 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 27 | 27 | 137 | 610 | 117 | 46 | 26 | 16.9% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 6.04 | 5.33 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 25 | 25 | 131 | 563 | 109 | 53 | 23 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 3.8% | 4.47 | 4.81 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 10 | 8 | 37 | 179 | 29 | 23 | 8 | 16.2% | 12.8% | 4.4% | 7.61 | 5.76 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 5 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 7 | 6 | 1 | — | — | — | 5.68 | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 8 | 2 | 17 | 86 | 14 | 17 | 3 | 12.8% | 22.8% | 3.2% | 9.72 | 6.67 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 10 | — | 10 | 41 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 20.8% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 4.75 | 4.85 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 17 | 10 | 3 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 3.2% | 4.87 | 4.95 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 121 | 109 | 578 | 2523 | 446 | 213 | 99 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 3.9% | 5.17 | 4.83 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 38 | 200 | 874 | 154 | 74 | 34 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 3.9% | 5.17 | 4.83 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Vladimir Gutierrez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.85 | 20.8% | 11.2% | 3.1% | — | 4.95 | 20.2% | 8.9% | 20 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 81 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 79 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 77 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.10 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 4.1% | .333 | 5.03 | 15.8% | 7.4% | 182 | -0.07 | 2.39 | 676 | 77 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.58 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.79 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.79 | 3.73 | 164 | 76 |
| Zack Segovia R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 72 |
| Louis Coleman R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.98 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .288 | 3.64 | 22.0% | 10.9% | 144 | -0.34 | 3.10 | 256 | 71 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 5.95 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.95 | 19.9% | 14.1% | 5.0% | .261 | 3.91 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 101 | -2.04 | 2.36 | 309 | 71 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.31 | 18.7% | 12.6% | 2.2% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 104 | 70 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.90 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 133 | 70 |
| Jean Machi R 2029 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 70 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 70 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2029 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 70 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.16 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.9% | .373 | 3.54 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.62 | 3.45 | 170 | 69 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 69 |
| André Rienzo R 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.38 | 18.9% | 15.6% | 1.6% | .301 | 5.33 | 17.9% | 6.1% | 29 | +0.95 | 3.54 | 200 | 69 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.24 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.9% | .349 | 3.54 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.70 | 3.05 | 227 | 69 |
| Ronald Peña R 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.49 | 16.5% | 10.4% | 2.7% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 187 | 69 |
| Casey Coleman R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.84 | 16.8% | 11.4% | 3.1% | .343 | 4.98 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 107 | +0.14 | 2.98 | 306 | 68 |
| Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 68 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.