Josh Rivera

SS Buffalo Bisons

Age 26 R/R 6'0" / 215 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	24	AAATOR	394	.226/.333/.330	6	1	52	—	.188/.269/.268
2025	24	AATOR	46	.163/.217/.256	1	1	-20	—	.114/.152/.205
2026	25	AAATOR	365	.212/.282/.376	11	3	38	—	.171/.224/.283
2027PROJ10% MLB	26	MLBTOR	25	.179/.243/.274	0	0	45	-0.1
2028PROJ31% MLB	27	MLBTOR	104	.181/.246/.278	2	1	47	-0.3

Next 2 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Chase%72

Max EV69

Speed49

BB%33

Whiff%32

Z-Con%29

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsMatt O'Neill (age 26) · Cooper Johnson (age 26) · Joe Cronin (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†45

AVG/OBP/SLG.179 / .243 / .274

PA25

HR0

K%36

BB%8

BABIP280

ISO43

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	22	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	103	92	23	8	0	2	9	26	1	1	1	250	324	402	726	152	323	25	9	322	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	368	325	55	7	2	4	40	105	1	9	2	169	262	240	502	71	234	29	11	237	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	394	336	76	15	1	6	53	124	1	1	1	226	333	330	664	104	337	31	13	304	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	46	43	7	1	0	1	3	24	0	1	0	163	217	256	473	93	333	52	7	217	-20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	365	330	70	19	1	11	32	121	0	3	1	212	282	376	658	164	295	33	9	292	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	103	95	17	5	0	1	6	34	1	1	1	179	235	263	498	84	272	33	6	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	368	336	47	5	2	3	29	129	1	9	2	140	210	193	404	54	212	35	8	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	394	351	66	11	1	5	38	151	1	1	1	188	269	268	537	80	306	38	10	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	46	44	5	1	0	1	2	30	0	1	0	114	152	205	357	91	306	65	4	139	-20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	365	339	58	15	1	7	23	145	0	3	1	171	224	283	507	112	268	40	6	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	103	95	17	5	0	1	6	34	1	1	1	179	235	263	498	84	262	33	6	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	—	103	92	23	8	0	2	9	26	1	1	1	250	324	402	726	152	323	25	9	322	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	368	336	47	5	2	3	29	129	1	9	2	140	210	193	404	54	214	35	8	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	368	325	55	7	2	4	40	105	1	9	2	169	262	240	502	71	234	29	11	237	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	440	395	72	12	1	6	40	181	1	2	1	182	259	263	522	81	314	41	9	234	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	440	379	83	16	1	7	56	148	1	2	1	219	321	322	643	103	336	34	13	295	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	365	339	58	15	1	7	23	145	0	3	1	171	224	283	507	112	270	40	6	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	Buffalo Bisons	—	365	330	70	19	1	11	32	121	0	3	1	212	282	376	658	164	295	33	9	292	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	103	95	17	5	0	1	6	34	1	1	1	179	235	263	498	84	272	33	6	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	368	335	47	5	2	3	29	129	1	9	2	140	210	194	404	54	212	35	8	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	440	396	72	12	1	6	40	181	1	2	1	182	259	263	522	81	306	41	9	234	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	365	339	58	15	1	7	23	145	0	3	1	171	224	283	507	112	268	40	6	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	23	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	368	335	47	5	2	3	29	129	1	9	2	140	210	194	404	54	212	35	8	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	440	396	72	12	1	6	40	181	1	2	1	182	259	263	522	81	306	41	9	234	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	25	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	365	339	58	15	1	7	23	145	0	3	1	171	224	283	507	112	268	40	6	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	26	MLB MLE	TOR	10%	380	347	62	13	1	6	29	144	1	4	1	178	243	273	516	95	279	38	8	235	45	-25	+0	+0	+4	+8	-0.6
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	26	MLB CTX	TOR	10%	25	23	4	1	0	0	2	9	0	0	0	179	243	274	517	95	280	36	8	236	45	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	TOR	31%	336	306	54	11	1	5	26	125	1	3	1	180	246	277	523	97	279	37	8	238	47	-21	+0	+0	+4	+7	-1.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	TOR	31%	104	95	17	3	0	2	8	39	0	1	0	181	246	278	524	97	280	38	8	239	47	-7	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	104	95	17	3	0	2	8	39	0	1	0	179	243	274	516	95	273	38	8	239	37	-7	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	594	106	19	0	12	50	244	0	6	0	178	242	271	513	93	273	38	8	239	37	-41	+1	+0	+7	+14	-1.9
Career	—	MLE		—	1862	1700	289	56	6	26	143	709	4	20	7	170	236	256	492	86	270	38	8	224	37	-37	+0	+0	+6	+13	-1.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	101	20	2	9	50	248	1	7	2	170	236	256	492	86	271	38	8	224	37	-41	+0	+0	+7	+14	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Josh Rivera (OGILVIE)	26	35	40	45	60	176/241/271	94	279	4	2	38%	8%	45	-1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Matt O'Neill 2024 · AAA	26	34	41→45	45	40	165/246/261	95	294	10	3	44%	9%	45	-2.7	192/262/291	99	303	9	5	36%	8%	57	-1.8	188/262/285	97	277	9	2	33%	9%	54	-0.6
✕Cooper Johnson 2024 · AA	26	37	40→45	47→40	40	171/254/258	86	308	7	7	43%	9%	48	-2.5	187/265/311	124	269	14	5	34%	9%	64	-1.3	170/251/291	120	232	14	3	32%	9%	52	-1.3
✕Joe Cronin 2019 · AA	25	37	40→45	45→50	44	180/271/269	89	284	8	7	36%	9%	57	-1.8	194/276/296	102	294	9	11	34%	8%	64	-1.3	166/256/268	102	246	9	13	34%	9%	49	-1.2
✕Eric Yang 2024 · AAA	26	41	39→40	47→40	43	194/269/277	83	288	6	6	33%	8%	57	-1.8	203/280/276	73	313	5	6	34%	8%	61	-1.5	175/267/227	52	282	5	2	36%	9%	44	-0.6
✕Cody Bohanek 2021 · AAA	26	39→36	38→40	44→50	39	179/267/255	76	302	6	11	39%	7%	53	-2.1	178/274/281	103	290	9	15	38%	8%	61	-1.5	153/258/253	100	252	9	18	39%	9%	48	-1.3
✕McCarthy Tatum 2022 · AA	26	33→25	41→50	45→50	35	170/234/264	94	274	10	6	40%	6%	41	-3.0	198/254/313	115	283	11	10	33%	5%	60	-1.6	196/248/320	125	268	11	11	30%	4%	56	-0.6
✕Madison Stokes 2022 · AA	26	39→36	42→45	41→40	37	196/244/302	106	285	10	4	34%	5%	53	-2.1	186/258/289	103	297	9	9	37%	8%	56	-1.9	161/248/256	95	264	7	9	38%	9%	42	-1.5
✕Caleb Hamilton 2022 · AAA	27	36	44→45	47→45	44	181/259/292	111	272	12	9	36%	9%	57	-1.8	177/261/302	125	271	15	6	38%	10%	61	-1.5	140/232/254	115	204	16	3	39%	10%	37	-1.0
✕Chris Okey 2021 · AAA	26	38	45	49→40	38	195/248/314	119	281	13	6	35%	6%	57	-1.8	212/265/320	108	303	10	5	32%	6%	65	-1.2	209/261/309	100	290	9	2	30%	5%	58	-0.5
✕Jordan Betts 2018 · AA	26	36→28	44→45	46→40	35	183/230/295	112	279	11	5	38%	6%	46	-2.6	201/249/309	108	295	11	5	34%	5%	57	-1.8	188/232/279	91	267	11	0	33%	5%	41	-1.8
✕Kekai Rios 2023 · AA	26	41	40	47→45	43	196/265/283	86	287	8	4	33%	8%	57	-1.8	188/249/274	86	281	8	6	34%	6%	49	-2.4	158/219/221	64	246	8	0	37%	5%	24	-1.3
✕Jorge Saez 2017 · AA	26	38	45	44→30	41	194/252/312	118	271	13	4	33%	7%	59	-1.7	207/272/331	124	290	15	5	32%	8%	70	-0.8	189/263/302	114	258	16	2	32%	9%	59	-0.5
✕Chris Sharpe 2022 · AAA	26	38→40	43→45	45→50	40	188/260/301	113	281	9	10	35%	7%	60	-1.6	193/272/299	106	298	8	13	35%	8%	64	-1.3	165/257/264	99	259	6	16	35%	9%	51	-1.0
✕Joe Hudson 2017 · AA	26	38	40→45	45→40	44	189/257/283	94	259	8	3	29%	8%	54	-2.0	190/248/287	97	263	8	3	29%	7%	51	-2.2	168/269/293	125	244	17	8	36%	10%	60	-0.5
✕Brent Diaz 2022 · AA	26	40	43→45	44→45	37	195/271/298	103	305	11	8	37%	6%	63	-1.3	219/284/346	127	296	14	9	30%	6%	79	-0.2	198/261/319	120	262	16	9	30%	5%	59	-0.5
✕Bryan Arias 2023 · AA	26	38	43→45	51→50	41	189/264/294	105	291	11	14	37%	8%	59	-1.6	201/274/303	102	294	9	14	32%	8%	65	-1.2	190/290/284	94	249	9	24	25%	10%	64	-0.3
✕Hayden Senger 2024 · AAA	27	40	41→45	45	37	192/262/290	97	307	9	5	38%	6%	57	-1.8	195/251/293	98	279	10	6	32%	5%	53	-2.1	187/233/284	97	254	12	4	31%	4%	42	-1.2
✕Mark Kolozsvary 2022 · AAA	26	39	45→40	43→30	40	188/279/309	122	296	12	4	38%	8%	70	-0.9	180/263/292	112	284	12	6	38%	7%	60	-1.6	147/224/255	108	224	12	2	38%	6%	34	-0.8
✕Jack Conley 2022 · AAA	25	35	41→45	50→45	39	176/239/272	96	267	8	7	36%	7%	45	-2.7	203/269/313	110	288	10	8	31%	7%	65	-1.2	192/265/298	106	267	9	5	30%	8%	56	-0.9
✕Grant Koch 2023 · AA	26	35	42→45	44→30	41	180/247/279	99	256	11	4	33%	7%	49	-2.4	204/259/298	94	312	9	4	35%	6%	57	-1.8	194/243/276	82	299	9	0	36%	5%	43	-0.7