Manuel Medina

P Greenville Drive

Age 25 LHP 5'10" / 140 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	21	MIX2 levels	17	0	30	3.90	3.57	29.4%	10.3%	—	K 22.3% · BB 11.2% · FIP 5.09
2024	22	MIX2 levels	21	0	24	1.48	0.22	42.3%	4.1%	—	K 31.4% · BB 6.4% · FIP 1.26
2025	23	MIX2 levels	23	2	58	4.06	2.42	28.5%	8.3%	—	K 21.6% · BB 9.6% · FIP 3.33
2027PROJ	25	MLBBOS	32	0	34	4.35	4.35	22.2%	9.3%	0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBBOS	21	0	22	4.33	4.33	22.5%	9.2%	0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBBOS	30	0	32	4.35	4.36	22.6%	9.3%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsPedro Feliciano (age 26) · Will Gilbert (age 25) · Colton Johnson (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 116

ERA4.35

FIP4.35

K%22.2%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%13.0%

Proj IP34

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	6	0	8	32	10	2	0	0%	1.3	31.2%	6.2%	25.0%	0.0%	1.17	1.25	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	6	0	8	32	10	2	0	0%	1.3	31.2%	6.2%	25.0%	0.0%	1.17	1.27	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	14	0	22	94	35	5	0	0%	1.5	25.3%	6.6%	18.7%	0.0%	1.25	1.80	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	14	0	22	94	35	5	0	0%	1.5	37.2%	5.3%	31.9%	0.0%	1.25	0.56	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	1	40	152	56	5	2	7%	2.7	24.7%	2.2%	22.5%	2.9%	2.45	2.89	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	1	40	152	56	5	2	7%	2.7	36.8%	3.3%	33.6%	1.3%	2.45	1.34	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	30	136	40	14	4	0%	1.8	22.3%	11.2%	11.1%	4.5%	3.90	5.09	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	0	30	136	40	14	4	0%	1.8	29.4%	10.3%	19.1%	2.9%	3.90	3.57	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	24	97	41	4	0	0%	1.2	31.4%	6.4%	25.0%	0.0%	1.48	1.26	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	24	97	41	4	0	0%	1.2	31.4%	6.4%	25.0%	0.0%	1.48	1.26	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	0	24	97	41	4	0	0%	1.2	42.3%	4.1%	38.1%	0.0%	1.48	0.22	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	2	58	242	69	20	3	9%	2.5	21.6%	9.6%	12.0%	1.5%	4.06	3.33	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	2	58	242	69	20	3	9%	2.5	21.6%	9.6%	12.0%	1.5%	4.06	3.33	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	2	58	242	69	20	3	9%	2.5	28.5%	8.3%	20.2%	1.2%	4.06	2.42	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	BOS	32	0	34	144	32	13	4	0%	1.1	22.2%	9.3%	13.0%	2.9%	4.35	4.35	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	BOS	49	0	52	219	49	20	6	0%	1.1	22.5%	9.2%	13.3%	2.9%	4.33	4.33	+0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	BOS	49	0	51	216	49	20	6	0%	1.0	22.6%	9.3%	13.3%	2.9%	4.35	4.36	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	BOS	21	0	22	93	21	9	3	0%	1.0	22.5%	9.2%	13.3%	2.9%	4.33	4.33	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	BOS	30	0	32	135	31	13	4	0%	1.1	22.6%	9.3%	13.3%	2.9%	4.35	4.36	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		52	0	54	230	52	21	7	0%	1.0	22.6%	9.3%	13.3%	2.9%	4.34	3.97	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	191	77	26	0%	1.1	22.6%	9.3%	13.3%	2.9%	4.34	3.97	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		96	3	182	753	184	56	14	3%	1.9	24.5%	7.5%	17.0%	1.9%	2.87	3.02	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		106	3	200	829	203	62	16	3%	1.9	24.5%	7.5%	17.0%	1.9%	2.87	3.02	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Manuel Medina (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.35	22.2%	9.3%	2.9%	—	4.34	22.6%	13.3%	103	-0.01	—	—	—
Pedro Feliciano L 2003 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.7%	8.3%	2.3%	.309	3.52	20.2%	11.1%	79	-0.22	2.69	378	88
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	85
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	85
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	85
Greg Nappo L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	26	SU	3.37	22.7%	7.5%	2.2%	.267	5.25	16.5%	5.9%	79	+1.88	3.37	144	84
Aaron Fultz L 2000 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.7%	9.4%	2.7%	.294	3.88	19.4%	12.5%	180	-0.12	3.46	480	84
Luis Perez L 2011 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	18.4%	8.8%	3.1%	.317	3.32	22.3%	13.2%	42	-1.03	3.32	173	84
Mike Zagurski L 2007 · 4.10 FIP	24	SU	4.10	20.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	83
Jackson Lancaster L 2024 · 4.48 FIP	25	SU	4.48	24.0%	11.1%	3.6%	.355	5.36	18.3%	4.9%	93	+0.88	4.15	142	83
Adam Laskey L 2023 · 3.27 FIP	25	SU	3.27	21.7%	9.4%	1.5%	.331	3.66	18.1%	10.4%	167	+0.39	3.12	310	83
Jake Kalish L 2016 · 3.89 FIP	25	SU	3.89	17.8%	6.9%	2.6%	.231	3.90	17.0%	11.9%	352	+0.01	2.68	740	83
Brandon Hughes L 2021 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	27.0%	11.1%	2.7%	.300	4.59	24.3%	15.3%	149	+0.91	3.68	206	82
Jerry Vasto L 2017 · 4.16 FIP	25	SU	4.16	22.2%	10.2%	3.0%	.382	3.52	24.0%	12.5%	38	-0.64	2.89	206	82
Bailey Horn L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	25	SU	3.91	21.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.322	4.56	22.4%	11.6%	110	+0.65	3.90	265	82
Robby Ahlstrom L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	25	SU	3.89	21.9%	11.6%	2.1%	.294	4.02	20.7%	11.1%	120	+0.13	3.79	332	82
Thomas Burrows L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	22.0%	10.5%	2.6%	.276	3.93	26.5%	12.9%	82	-0.06	2.67	271	81
Williams Jerez L 2017 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	17.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.294	3.81	24.0%	15.1%	127	-0.24	3.58	364	81
Elvis Araujo L 2016 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	21.0%	9.8%	2.8%	.308	5.18	22.9%	11.1%	38	+1.09	2.46	120	81
Kit Scheetz L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	22.9%	8.7%	3.9%	.340	5.08	16.2%	2.6%	55	+0.66	2.34	195	81
Harry Gustin L 2024 · 3.91 FIP	22	SU	3.91	20.7%	11.0%	2.1%	.331	4.33	22.9%	12.7%	109	+0.42	3.70	152	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	22.5%	9.3%	1.12	4.34
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*