James Gonzalez

P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 26 LHP 6'2" / 255 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX3 levels	27	18	121	3.41	3.19	21.8%	7.5%	—	K 17.9% · BB 8.4% · FIP 3.85
2025	24	AAOAK	17	17	78	4.27	3.32	24.4%	10.3%	—	K 19.8% · BB 11.3% · FIP 3.98
2026	25	MIX2 levels	43	5	75	5.64	4.11	19.7%	11.6%	—	K 16.7% · BB 11.1% · FIP 4.38
2027PROJ	26	MLBOAK	67	0	70	4.94	4.94	17.1%	11.4%	-0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	27	MLBOAK	28	0	29	4.90	4.91	17.7%	11.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	28	MLBOAK	40	0	42	4.92	4.95	18.0%	11.2%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control45Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsIrwin Delgado (age 26) · Matt Tracy (age 26) · Connor Oliver (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111119vR 127

ERA4.94

FIP4.94

K%17.1%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%5.7%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	7	4	19	80	22	5	1	57%	2.7	18.7%	7.8%	10.9%	1.7%	4.82	3.47	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	7	4	19	80	22	5	1	57%	2.7	27.5%	6.2%	21.3%	1.2%	4.82	2.24	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	4	28	116	27	6	1	40%	2.8	18.7%	6.2%	12.5%	0.0%	2.25	2.31	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	4	28	116	27	6	1	40%	2.8	23.3%	5.2%	18.1%	0.9%	2.25	2.28	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	15	79	359	76	36	12	68%	3.6	16.6%	11.2%	5.4%	4.5%	6.15	5.59	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	15	79	359	76	36	12	68%	3.6	21.2%	10.0%	11.1%	3.3%	6.15	4.52	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	19	108	479	135	46	11	79%	4.5	21.0%	11.3%	9.8%	3.2%	4.42	4.49	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	19	108	479	135	46	11	79%	4.5	28.2%	9.6%	18.6%	2.3%	4.42	3.20	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	18	121	505	110	38	9	67%	4.5	17.9%	8.4%	9.6%	2.2%	3.41	3.85	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	18	121	505	110	38	9	67%	4.5	17.9%	8.4%	9.6%	2.2%	3.41	3.85	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	18	121	505	110	38	9	67%	4.5	21.8%	7.5%	14.3%	1.8%	3.41	3.19	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	17	17	78	340	83	35	6	100%	4.6	19.8%	11.3%	8.5%	2.0%	4.27	3.98	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	17	17	78	340	83	35	6	100%	4.6	19.8%	11.3%	8.5%	2.0%	4.27	3.98	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	17	17	78	340	83	35	6	100%	4.6	24.4%	10.3%	14.1%	1.8%	4.27	3.32	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	5	75	335	66	39	7	12%	1.7	16.7%	11.1%	5.5%	2.3%	5.64	4.38	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	5	75	335	66	39	7	12%	1.7	16.7%	11.1%	5.5%	2.3%	5.64	4.38	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	5	75	335	66	39	7	12%	1.7	19.7%	11.6%	8.1%	2.1%	5.64	4.11	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	OAK	67	0	70	296	50	34	8	0%	1.0	17.1%	11.4%	5.7%	2.7%	4.94	4.94	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	OAK	66	0	69	292	52	33	8	0%	1.0	17.7%	11.2%	6.4%	2.7%	4.90	4.91	-0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	OAK	64	0	67	283	51	32	8	0%	1.0	18.0%	11.2%	6.7%	2.9%	4.92	4.95	-0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	OAK	61	0	64	270	49	31	8	0%	1.0	18.0%	11.4%	6.7%	3.0%	4.99	5.05	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	OAK	28	0	29	122	22	14	3	0%	1.0	17.7%	11.2%	6.4%	2.7%	4.90	4.91	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	OAK	40	0	42	177	32	20	5	0%	1.1	18.0%	11.2%	6.7%	2.9%	4.92	4.95	-0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	OAK	45	0	47	198	36	23	6	0%	1.0	18.0%	11.4%	6.7%	3.0%	4.99	5.05	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		112	0	118	498	89	56	14	0%	1.1	17.9%	11.3%	6.6%	2.9%	4.94	4.60	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	151	95	24	0%	1.1	17.9%	11.3%	6.6%	2.9%	4.94	4.60	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		150	82	508	2214	411	226	59	55%	3.4	18.6%	10.2%	8.4%	2.6%	4.50	4.28	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	32	200	872	162	89	23	55%	3.4	18.6%	10.2%	8.4%	2.6%	4.50	4.28	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
James Gonzalez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	17.1%	11.4%	2.7%	—	4.97	17.9%	6.6%	200	+0.03	—	—	—
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	86
Matt Tracy L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SW	3.96	14.4%	9.8%	1.5%	.306	4.10	14.7%	5.5%	208	+0.14	3.24	298	85
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	84
Brian Burres L 2007 · 4.50 FIP	26	SW	4.50	17.2%	11.6%	2.5%	.328	4.71	11.3%	3.1%	209	+0.21	4.50	344	83
Brian Duensing L 2009 · 3.98 FIP	26	SW	3.98	14.8%	8.4%	1.9%	.286	3.90	15.2%	9.3%	401	-0.08	2.57	799	82
Ben Holmes L 2018 · 4.02 FIP	26	SW	4.02	19.1%	9.3%	2.5%	.264	5.57	19.7%	8.6%	61	+1.55	3.09	451	82
Nick Dombkowski L 2024 · 4.92 FIP	25	SW	4.92	16.5%	10.9%	3.3%	.273	5.17	18.2%	10.6%	183	+0.25	3.71	425	81
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	80
Dan Meyer L 2007 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	13.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.316	4.35	20.6%	11.8%	86	-0.41	3.73	112	80
Carlos Teller L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	28	SP-	3.75	13.8%	10.9%	0.8%	.329	4.75	13.3%	3.1%	187	+1.00	3.75	333	78
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	77
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	77
Houston Harding L 2024 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	16.5%	11.2%	2.6%	.268	5.19	12.0%	0.5%	61	+0.65	3.41	239	76
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	75
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	74
Eric DuBose L 2003 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP-	3.92	14.4%	7.5%	2.0%	.233	5.49	13.7%	0.4%	104	+1.57	3.92	178	74
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	73
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	73
Nate Peterson L 2024 · 5.51 FIP	24	SP-	5.51	19.2%	11.4%	4.7%	.296	4.75	16.0%	3.7%	148	-0.76	4.27	315	73
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	68	17.7%	11.3%	1.09	4.94
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*