Blake Walston

P Reno Aces

Age 26 LHP 6'5" / 175 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIEFG #984

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	22	AAAARI	30	30	149	4.52	4.36	15.6%	14.0%	—	K 13.4% · BB 12.6% · FIP 4.36
2024	23	MIX2 levels	21	15	83	4.75	4.35	22.9%	10.6%	0.5	K 20.3% · BB 9.8% · FIP 4.39
2026	25	MIX2 levels	11	0	15	3.07	4.05	18.2%	6.1%	0.1	K 16.2% · BB 5.1% · FIP 4.65
2027PROJ	26	MLBARI	28	28	165	4.61	4.73	18.6%	8.6%	0.3
2028PROJ64% MLB	27	MLBARI	18	18	107	4.66	4.72	18.9%	8.6%	0.2
2029PROJ76% MLB	28	MLBARI	21	21	126	4.71	4.77	19.0%	8.7%	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

K%47

Whiff%27

xwOBA vs22

FB Velo10

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsBrad Mills (age 26) · Hung-Chih Kuo (age 26) · Hunter Barco (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 123

ERA4.61

FIP4.73

K%18.6%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%9.9%

Proj IP165

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CMD4045

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.5

Whiff%

p2722.1%

p4721.7%

xwOBA vs

p220.345

FB+2.0 (36%)

CT (18%)

SI (4%)

CU (13%)

SL-1.0 (16%)

CH-4.0 (16%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	3	2	5	17	11	0	0	67%	1.7	64.7%	0.0%	64.7%	0.0%	1.80	-2.36	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	3	2	5	17	11	0	0	67%	1.7	64.7%	0.0%	64.7%	0.0%	1.80	-1.30	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	96	406	117	33	16	100%	5.0	21.7%	9.5%	12.3%	5.2%	3.76	5.31	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	96	406	117	33	16	100%	5.0	28.8%	8.1%	20.7%	3.9%	3.76	3.86	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	124	532	137	46	16	100%	5.0	20.7%	9.6%	11.1%	3.3%	4.79	4.38	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	124	532	137	46	16	100%	5.0	25.8%	8.6%	17.1%	3.0%	4.79	3.68	—
2023	22	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	30	30	149	666	104	93	9	100%	5.0	13.4%	12.6%	0.9%	1.5%	4.52	4.36	—
2023	22	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	30	30	149	666	104	93	9	100%	5.0	15.6%	14.0%	1.7%	1.4%	4.52	4.36	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	15	83	376	86	40	12	71%	4.0	20.3%	9.8%	10.5%	3.2%	4.75	4.39	+0.5
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	15	83	376	86	40	12	71%	4.0	20.3%	9.8%	10.5%	3.2%	4.75	4.39	+0.5
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	15	83	376	86	40	12	71%	4.0	22.9%	10.6%	12.2%	3.2%	4.75	4.35	+0.5
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	0	15	66	12	4	2	0%	1.3	16.2%	5.1%	11.1%	4.2%	3.07	4.65	-0.0
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	0	15	66	12	4	2	0%	1.3	16.2%	5.1%	11.1%	4.2%	3.07	4.65	-0.0
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	0	15	66	12	4	2	0%	1.3	18.2%	6.1%	12.1%	3.0%	3.07	4.05	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			9	2	21	96	20	11	4	22%	2.4	20.8%	11.5%	9.4%	4.2%	4.22	5.21	-0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	ARI	28	28	165	697	129	60	22	100%	5.9	18.6%	8.6%	9.9%	3.1%	4.61	4.73	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	ARI	28	28	166	703	133	61	22	100%	5.9	18.9%	8.6%	10.3%	3.2%	4.66	4.72	+0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	ARI	28	28	166	703	134	61	23	100%	5.9	19.0%	8.7%	10.3%	3.3%	4.71	4.77	+0.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	ARI	26	26	159	671	125	60	23	100%	6.1	18.6%	8.9%	9.7%	3.4%	4.81	4.90	0.0
2031	30	MLB MLE	ARI	25	25	150	631	113	58	23	100%	6.0	17.9%	9.1%	8.8%	3.6%	4.98	5.09	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	107	452	85	39	14	100%	5.9	18.9%	8.6%	10.3%	3.2%	4.66	4.72	+0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	ARI	21	21	126	532	101	46	17	100%	6.0	19.0%	8.7%	10.3%	3.3%	4.71	4.77	+0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	ARI	22	22	130	549	102	49	19	100%	5.9	18.6%	8.9%	9.7%	3.4%	4.81	4.90	0.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	ARI	22	22	129	545	98	50	20	100%	5.9	17.9%	9.1%	8.8%	3.6%	4.98	5.09	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		91	84	513	2174	406	195	74	92%	5.6	18.7%	9.0%	9.7%	3.4%	4.77	4.52	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	33	200	847	158	76	29	92%	5.6	18.7%	9.0%	9.7%	3.4%	4.77	4.52	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		109	91	472	2063	386	213	63	83%	4.3	18.7%	10.3%	8.4%	3.1%	4.40	4.51	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	39	200	874	163	90	27	83%	4.3	18.7%	10.3%	8.4%	3.1%	4.40	4.51	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Blake Walston (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	18.6%	8.6%	3.1%	—	4.80	18.8%	10.1%	492	+0.07	—	—	—
Brad Mills L 2011 · 5.37 FIP	26	SP-	5.37	19.8%	12.1%	4.4%	.328	5.61	18.8%	7.9%	21	+0.24	4.22	243	76
Hung-Chih Kuo L 2007 · 3.91 FIP	26	SP-	3.91	19.3%	10.0%	2.1%	.333	2.04	29.8%	22.7%	170	-1.87	1.63	287	70
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	68
Yohan Flande L 2014 · 3.65 FIP	28	SP-	3.65	14.1%	5.8%	1.8%	.266	3.90	14.1%	7.9%	312	+0.25	3.18	394	68
Vidal Nuño L 2013 · 4.35 FIP	26	SP-	4.35	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.215	4.24	19.7%	14.3%	366	-0.11	4.00	606	68
T.J. Sikkema L 2024 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	18.5%	6.0%	2.3%	.282	4.10	16.1%	7.2%	87	+0.53	3.57	300	67
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	66
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	66
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	66
Brian Tallet L 2003 · 4.65 FIP	25	SP-	4.65	10.3%	9.2%	2.3%	.309	4.43	16.2%	4.4%	54	-0.22	2.59	443	66
Hayden Wynja L 2024 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP-	4.79	18.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.74	154	66
Josh Outman L 2011 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	13.8%	9.1%	1.7%	.302	3.80	21.8%	11.8%	123	-0.23	2.95	380	65
James Paxton L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	26	SP	4.22	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	2.95	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.27	2.46	1,022	65
Eric DuBose L 2003 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP-	3.92	14.4%	7.5%	2.0%	.233	5.49	13.7%	0.4%	104	+1.57	3.92	178	65
Rodney Boone L 2024 · 4.56 FIP	24	SP-	4.56	18.1%	9.8%	3.2%	.221	3.64	18.5%	10.8%	78	-0.92	3.64	311	64
Matt Portland L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP-	4.64	17.4%	11.0%	2.9%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	143	64
David Purcey L 2008 · 4.39 FIP	26	SP	4.39	20.1%	10.0%	3.1%	.301	4.39	17.9%	5.0%	116	-0.00	3.60	206	63
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	63
Dan Meyer L 2007 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	13.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.316	4.35	20.6%	11.8%	86	-0.41	3.73	112	62
Grant Borne L 2019 · 4.20 FIP	25	SP-	4.20	14.5%	5.4%	3.0%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	169	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	166	18.7%	8.9%	1.29	4.74
Max Surkont ('49-'57, 5 WAR*)	6.0	149	20.0%*	8.4%*	1.27*	4.76*
Manny Salvo ('39-'43, 4 WAR*)	3.6	144	17.2%*	9.2%*	1.19*	4.37*
Jack Bentley ('13-'27, 5 WAR*)	3.6	143	21.1%*	9.8%*	1.35*	4.67*
Tom Koehler ('17)	3.9	157	17.9%	9.6%	1.08	4.39
Nate Robertson ('10)	5.8	144	15.3%	8.3%	1.25	5.01
Colby Lewis ('16)	6.1	135	18.4%	7.2%	1.32	4.70