Declan Cronin
P
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
Age 28
RHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 78 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10798vR 89
ERA4.23
FIP4.16
K%21.6%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%11.8%
ROS IP79
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4193.9
Whiff%
p5826.6%
K%
p5723.5%
xwOBA vs
p640.298
FB+1.4 (48%)
SL (52%)
SI (41%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 0 | 34 | 135 | 29 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.7 | 12.6% | 11.3% | 1.3% | 4.0% | 2.88 | 5.65 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 0 | 34 | 135 | 29 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.7 | 21.5% | 8.1% | 13.3% | 1.5% | 2.88 | 3.13 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 47 | 204 | 43 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 17.0% | 13.0% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 5.11 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 47 | 204 | 43 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.1% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 2.0% | 4.56 | 3.78 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 1 | 51 | 216 | 36 | 19 | 4 | 2% | 1.0 | 13.9% | 9.6% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 3.71 | 3.99 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 1 | 51 | 216 | 36 | 19 | 4 | 2% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 1.9% | 3.71 | 3.83 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 0 | 63 | 276 | 50 | 27 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.3% | 10.1% | 6.1% | 2.0% | 4.74 | 4.09 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 0 | 63 | 276 | 50 | 27 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 2.2% | 4.74 | 4.04 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 59 | 0 | 75 | 327 | 76 | 26 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.5% | 7.2% | 16.3% | 0.3% | 4.34 | 2.21 | +2.3 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 59 | 0 | 75 | 327 | 76 | 26 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.2% | 8.0% | 15.3% | 0.6% | 4.34 | 2.46 | +2.1 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 3 | 23 | 101 | 23 | 15 | 3 | 13% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 16.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 5.18 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 3 | 23 | 101 | 23 | 15 | 3 | 13% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 14.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 4.73 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 75 | 0 | 79 | 333 | 72 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 2.3% | 4.23 | 4.16 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 72 | 0 | 75 | 318 | 68 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 2.5% | 4.30 | 4.33 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 67 | 0 | 71 | 299 | 62 | 31 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 4.44 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 25 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 2.5% | 4.30 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 34 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 4.44 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 129 | 0 | 148 | 639 | 139 | 58 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 9.0% | 12.7% | 1.8% | 4.71 | 3.39 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 174 | 0 | 200 | 863 | 188 | 78 | 15 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.8% | 9.0% | 12.7% | 1.8% | 4.71 | 3.39 | +4.7 | ||
| Career | — | 242 | 4 | 293 | 1259 | 223 | 130 | 25 | 2% | 1.2 | 17.7% | 10.4% | 7.4% | 2.0% | 4.20 | 4.00 | +4.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 165 | 3 | 200 | 858 | 152 | 89 | 17 | 2% | 1.2 | 17.7% | 10.4% | 7.4% | 2.0% | 4.20 | 4.00 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Declan Cronin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.16 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 2.3% | — | 4.43 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 146 | +0.27 | — | — | — |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .327 | 4.77 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 74 | +1.31 | 2.32 | 676 | 82 |
| Zach McAllister R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.71 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .309 | 4.19 | 24.0% | 17.4% | 119 | +0.48 | 2.82 | 363 | 79 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.32 | 24.0% | 9.5% | 1.9% | .271 | 2.99 | 26.0% | 17.7% | 215 | -0.33 | 1.51 | 544 | 79 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .333 | 4.06 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.44 | 3.62 | 147 | 79 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.36 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.03 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.27 | 150 | 79 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.56 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .283 | 4.38 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.82 | 3.56 | 104 | 78 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.26 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 1.3% | .327 | 3.25 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 187 | -0.01 | 2.40 | 617 | 78 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.18 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.40 | 2.76 | 228 | 77 |
| Ryan Tepera R 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.04 | 22.6% | 8.9% | 1.3% | .266 | 3.81 | 24.3% | 15.9% | 164 | +0.77 | 2.33 | 445 | 77 |
| Sam Dyson R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.43 | 19.3% | 8.1% | 1.7% | .287 | 3.77 | 18.9% | 11.9% | 187 | +0.34 | 2.67 | 333 | 77 |
| Greg Holland R 2027 · 3.21 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.21 | 25.4% | 13.0% | 1.1% | .316 | 3.35 | 26.4% | 14.2% | 104 | +0.14 | 1.97 | 268 | 77 |
| Chris Martin R 2027 · 3.28 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.28 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.5% | .319 | 3.06 | 20.9% | 19.2% | 42 | -0.22 | 1.76 | 416 | 77 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2029 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 76 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.40 | 17.4% | 7.5% | 1.5% | .276 | 4.18 | 19.0% | 11.2% | 192 | +0.78 | 3.40 | 295 | 76 |
| A.J. Schugel R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.18 | 20.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .307 | 6.22 | 17.6% | 10.6% | 13 | +2.04 | 2.75 | 299 | 76 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2029 · 3.09 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.09 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.84 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.75 | 3.09 | 148 | 75 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.20 | 21.9% | 8.4% | 3.4% | .275 | 3.73 | 22.1% | 12.1% | 103 | -0.47 | 2.59 | 309 | 75 |
| Javy Guerra R 2028 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 75 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 2.0% | .359 | 5.26 | 12.8% | 2.8% | 47 | +1.80 | 3.46 | 108 | 75 |
| Murphy Smith R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.37 | 19.3% | 9.3% | 1.3% | .245 | 4.51 | 13.6% | 6.8% | 145 | +1.14 | 3.14 | 300 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 75 | 21.2% | 10.0% | 0.97 | 4.32 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |