Declan Cronin — OGILVIE

Declan Cronin P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10698vR 89

ERA4.19

FIP4.09

K%21.4%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%12.2%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4193.9

Whiff%

p5826.6%

p5723.5%

xwOBA vs

p640.298

FB+1.4 (48%)

SL (52%)

SI (41%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	34	135	29	11	2	0%	1.7	12.6%	11.3%	1.3%	3.3%	2.88	5.26	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	0	34	135	29	11	2	0%	1.7	21.5%	8.1%	13.3%	1.5%	2.88	3.13	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	47	204	43	22	4	0%	1.4	17.0%	13.0%	4.0%	3.1%	4.56	5.02	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	47	204	43	22	4	0%	1.4	21.1%	10.8%	10.3%	2.0%	4.56	3.78	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	1	51	216	36	19	4	2%	1.0	13.9%	9.6%	4.3%	1.8%	3.71	4.11	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	1	51	216	36	19	4	2%	1.0	16.7%	8.8%	7.9%	1.9%	3.71	3.83	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	63	276	50	27	6	0%	1.1	15.5%	9.1%	6.5%	2.1%	4.74	4.09	+0.3
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	63	276	50	27	6	0%	1.1	15.5%	9.1%	6.5%	2.1%	4.74	4.09	+0.3
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	0	63	276	50	27	6	0%	1.1	18.1%	9.8%	8.3%	2.2%	4.74	4.04	+0.4
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	75	327	76	26	2	0%	1.3	23.5%	7.2%	16.3%	0.3%	4.34	2.21	+2.1
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	75	327	76	26	2	0%	1.3	23.5%	7.2%	16.3%	0.3%	4.34	2.21	+2.1
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	0	75	327	76	26	2	0%	1.3	23.2%	8.0%	15.3%	0.6%	4.34	2.46	+1.9
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	3	23	101	23	15	3	13%	1.0	18.4%	14.0%	4.4%	2.7%	4.63	4.80	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	3	23	101	23	15	3	13%	1.0	18.4%	14.0%	4.4%	2.7%	4.63	4.80	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	3	23	101	23	15	3	13%	1.0	22.8%	14.9%	7.9%	3.0%	4.63	4.73	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			65	0	81	357	80	29	4	0%	1.3	22.4%	8.1%	14.3%	1.1%	4.98	2.84	+1.7
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	MIA	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	21.4%	9.2%	12.2%	2.3%	4.19	4.09	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	MIA	72	0	75	318	67	30	8	0%	1.0	21.0%	9.4%	11.6%	2.5%	4.24	4.27	+0.2
2028	30	MLB MLE	MIA	67	0	71	299	61	29	8	0%	1.1	20.5%	9.7%	10.8%	2.7%	4.38	4.48	+0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	MIA	27	0	28	118	25	11	3	0%	1.0	21.0%	9.4%	11.6%	2.5%	4.24	4.27	+0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	MIA	37	0	39	165	34	16	4	0%	1.1	20.5%	9.7%	10.8%	2.7%	4.38	4.48	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		129	0	148	639	138	56	11	0%	1.1	21.6%	8.8%	12.9%	1.8%	4.68	3.36	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		174	0	200	863	186	76	15	0%	1.2	21.6%	8.8%	12.9%	1.8%	4.68	3.36	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		242	4	293	1259	220	125	24	2%	1.2	17.5%	9.9%	7.5%	1.9%	4.20	3.94	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		165	3	200	858	150	85	17	2%	1.2	17.5%	9.9%	7.5%	1.9%	4.20	3.94	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Declan Cronin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.09	21.4%	9.2%	2.3%	—	4.37	20.7%	11.2%	146	+0.28	—	—	—
Michael Mariot R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	22.6%	9.0%	2.1%	.327	4.79	20.9%	11.8%	74	+1.28	2.40	676	83
Zach McAllister R 2016 · 3.70 FIP	28	SU	3.70	23.2%	9.0%	2.6%	.309	4.18	24.0%	17.4%	119	+0.48	2.82	363	81
Blake Treinen R 2016 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	24.0%	9.5%	1.9%	.271	3.04	26.0%	17.7%	215	-0.28	1.53	547	81
Sam Dyson R 2016 · 3.42 FIP	28	SU	3.42	19.3%	8.1%	1.7%	.287	3.76	18.9%	11.9%	187	+0.34	2.66	333	80
Jaye Chapman R 2015 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	21.6%	8.5%	1.8%	.276	4.08	20.3%	11.3%	85	+0.76	3.25	150	79
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	79
Ryan Tepera R 2016 · 3.11 FIP	28	SU	3.11	22.6%	8.9%	1.4%	.266	3.81	24.3%	15.9%	164	+0.70	2.35	445	79
A.J. Schugel R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	28	SU	4.01	20.1%	8.1%	2.9%	.307	6.37	17.6%	10.6%	13	+2.36	2.80	299	78
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	78
Luis García R 2015 · 3.23 FIP	28	SU	3.23	20.7%	9.5%	1.2%	.327	3.22	21.6%	12.8%	187	-0.01	2.33	617	78
Chris Martin R 2015 · 3.24 FIP	29	SU	3.24	18.1%	7.0%	1.4%	.319	3.04	20.9%	19.2%	42	-0.20	1.76	416	77
Taylor Williams R 2019 · 4.15 FIP	28	SU	4.15	21.9%	8.4%	3.3%	.275	3.85	22.1%	12.1%	103	-0.30	2.51	309	77
Al Alburquerque R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	29	SU	3.54	21.4%	11.1%	1.5%	.330	3.23	21.3%	12.5%	114	-0.31	2.84	228	77
Pedro Beato R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	17.4%	7.5%	1.6%	.276	3.93	19.0%	11.2%	192	+0.46	3.47	295	77
Kevin Jepsen R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	31	SU	3.47	20.7%	9.1%	1.8%	.241	5.85	16.9%	7.2%	90	+2.38	3.47	160	76
Andrew Robinson R 2016 · 3.19 FIP	28	SU	3.19	22.2%	7.9%	1.8%	.247	4.32	23.4%	14.6%	39	+1.13	3.19	160	76
Danny Farquhar R 2015 · 3.85 FIP	28	SU	3.85	22.4%	6.8%	3.2%	.324	3.84	22.0%	12.8%	135	-0.01	3.62	224	76
Miguel Mejia R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	19.6%	7.2%	1.8%	.359	5.21	12.8%	2.8%	47	+1.84	3.37	108	76
Greg Holland R 2015 · 3.21 FIP	29	SU	3.21	25.4%	13.0%	1.1%	.316	3.45	26.4%	14.2%	104	+0.24	1.97	268	75
Murphy Smith R 2016 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	19.3%	9.3%	1.6%	.245	4.43	13.6%	6.8%	145	+0.89	3.16	300	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	75	21.0%	9.4%	0.96	4.27
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Cory Gearrin ('19)	1.1	57	21.5%	9.8%	0.79	3.42
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38