Thomas Schultz — OGILVIE

Thomas Schultz P Harrisburg Senators

Age 26 RHP 6'6" / 243 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION54 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.22

FIP5.22

K%18.9%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%6.5%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	16	64	17	5	3	0%	1.6	18.8%	8.0%	10.8%	7.2%	4.02	6.48	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	16	64	17	5	3	0%	1.6	18.8%	8.0%	10.8%	7.2%	4.02	6.48	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	16	64	17	5	3	0%	1.6	26.6%	7.8%	18.8%	4.7%	4.02	4.38	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	49	201	51	17	8	0%	1.2	19.1%	9.8%	9.2%	4.9%	3.65	5.41	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	49	201	51	17	8	0%	1.2	19.1%	9.8%	9.2%	4.9%	3.65	5.41	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	49	201	51	17	8	0%	1.2	25.4%	8.5%	16.9%	4.0%	3.65	4.17	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	5	69	283	69	31	8	11%	1.5	20.0%	11.9%	8.2%	3.2%	3.78	4.69	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	5	69	283	69	31	8	11%	1.5	20.0%	11.9%	8.2%	3.2%	3.78	4.69	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	46	5	69	283	69	31	8	11%	1.5	24.4%	11.0%	13.4%	2.8%	3.78	3.96	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	43	3	54	232	61	21	8	7%	1.3	21.3%	10.0%	11.3%	4.1%	4.50	4.83	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	43	3	54	232	61	21	8	7%	1.3	21.3%	10.0%	11.3%	4.1%	4.50	4.83	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	WSH	43	3	54	232	61	21	8	7%	1.3	26.3%	9.1%	17.2%	3.4%	4.50	3.92	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	WSH	5	0	5	23	4	3	1	0%	1.1	18.9%	12.4%	6.5%	3.2%	5.22	5.22	-0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	59	255	65	24	9	—	—	25.6%	9.4%	16.3%	3.4%	4.57	4.87	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	WSH	66	0	69	291	56	35	9	0%	1.0	19.4%	12.2%	7.2%	3.2%	5.15	5.16	-0.5
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	64	0	67	282	55	34	9	0%	1.0	19.6%	12.1%	7.5%	3.3%	5.15	5.19	-0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	WSH	61	0	64	270	53	33	9	0%	1.0	19.5%	12.2%	7.3%	3.5%	5.20	5.27	-0.5
2027	27	MLB CTX	WSH	25	0	26	110	21	13	4	0%	1.0	19.4%	12.2%	7.2%	3.2%	5.15	5.16	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	38	0	40	169	33	20	6	0%	1.1	19.6%	12.1%	7.5%	3.3%	5.15	5.19	-0.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	WSH	43	0	45	190	37	23	7	0%	1.0	19.5%	12.2%	7.3%	3.5%	5.20	5.27	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		106	0	111	469	91	57	16	0%	1.0	19.5%	12.1%	7.4%	3.4%	5.17	4.84	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	164	103	29	0%	1.1	19.5%	12.1%	7.4%	3.4%	5.17	4.84	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		140	8	188	780	156	82	33	6%	1.3	20.1%	10.5%	9.6%	4.3%	3.97	5.07	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		149	9	200	830	166	87	35	6%	1.3	20.1%	10.5%	9.6%	4.3%	3.97	5.07	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Thomas Schultz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.22	18.9%	12.4%	3.2%	—	5.21	19.5%	7.3%	200	-0.01	—	—	—
Gonzalez Germen R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	27	SU	4.24	18.0%	12.5%	1.9%	.296	3.88	19.2%	8.3%	54	-0.36	3.70	146	89
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	88
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	87
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	86
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	86
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	86
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	86
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	85
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.53	13.6%	5.9%	162	+0.30	3.85	291	85
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	85
Dusty Isaacs R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	26	SU	5.26	19.3%	14.1%	3.7%	.287	3.16	26.8%	20.6%	26	-2.10	3.16	253	85
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	85
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	84
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	84
Brad Schreiber R 2017 · 4.23 FIP	26	SU	4.23	17.3%	12.7%	1.8%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	171	84
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	84
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	84
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	84
Confesor Lara R 2016 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	16.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	111	83
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	19.3%	12.2%	1.28	5.18
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04