Thomas Schultz
P
Harrisburg Senators
Age 26
RHP
6'6" / 243 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137128vR 119
ERA5.26
FIP5.26
K%18.9%
BB%12.7%
K-BB%6.3%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 110 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 16 | 64 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.8% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 4.02 | 6.88 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 16 | 64 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 26.6% | 7.8% | 18.8% | 4.7% | 4.02 | 4.38 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 49 | 201 | 51 | 17 | 8 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.1% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 4.7% | 3.65 | 5.34 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 49 | 201 | 51 | 17 | 8 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.4% | 8.5% | 16.9% | 4.0% | 3.65 | 4.17 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 46 | 5 | 69 | 283 | 69 | 31 | 8 | 11% | 1.5 | 20.0% | 11.9% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 3.78 | 4.76 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 46 | 5 | 69 | 283 | 69 | 31 | 8 | 11% | 1.5 | 24.4% | 11.0% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 3.78 | 3.96 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 31 | 1 | 40 | 167 | 46 | 15 | 5 | 3% | 1.3 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 3.6% | 3.86 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | WSH | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 56 | 37 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 12.7% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 5.26 | 5.26 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | WSH | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 12.7% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 5.26 | 5.26 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 110 | 463 | 102 | 52 | 15 | — | — | 22.0% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.75 | 4.96 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 18.9% | 12.7% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 5.26 | 4.88 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 56 | 36 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 12.4% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 5.19 | 5.21 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 55 | 35 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 12.3% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 5.18 | 5.22 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 53 | 33 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 12.4% | 7.1% | 3.5% | 5.24 | 5.31 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 21 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 12.4% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 5.19 | 5.21 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 33 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.6% | 12.3% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 5.18 | 5.22 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 37 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 12.4% | 7.1% | 3.5% | 5.24 | 5.31 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 107 | 0 | 112 | 474 | 92 | 59 | 16 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 12.4% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 5.21 | 4.88 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 164 | 105 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.5% | 12.4% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 5.21 | 4.88 | +1.2 | ||
| Career | — | 128 | 6 | 174 | 715 | 144 | 75 | 30 | 5% | 1.4 | 20.2% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 4.2% | 3.78 | 5.04 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 147 | 7 | 200 | 823 | 166 | 86 | 35 | 5% | 1.4 | 20.2% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 4.2% | 3.78 | 5.04 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Thomas Schultz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.26 | 18.9% | 12.7% | 3.2% | — | 5.25 | 19.5% | 7.1% | 200 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Nolan Riggs R 2025 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 88 |
| Armando Rivero R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.39 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .256 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.58 | 2.81 | 125 | 87 |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2027 · 4.11 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.11 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .296 | 3.74 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 54 | -0.37 | 3.74 | 146 | 87 |
| Justin Courtney R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.26 | 16.8% | 12.8% | 3.6% | .331 | 9.13 | 18.4% | 7.1% | 21 | +3.87 | 4.53 | 108 | 87 |
| David Goforth R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.11 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .287 | 4.58 | 14.1% | 3.6% | 184 | +0.47 | 3.92 | 256 | 87 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 106 | 86 |
| Nick Ernst R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 117 | 86 |
| Roman Phansalkar R 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.61 | 15.8% | 13.2% | 4.0% | .294 | 4.31 | 18.2% | 3.7% | 31 | -1.30 | 4.31 | 164 | 85 |
| Dusty Isaacs R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.36 | 19.3% | 14.1% | 3.8% | .287 | 3.16 | 26.8% | 20.6% | 26 | -2.20 | 3.16 | 253 | 85 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 85 |
| Brett McKinney R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.06 | 18.5% | 9.9% | 4.1% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 183 | 85 |
| Julian Arballo R 2027 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.38 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -1.09 | 4.28 | 214 | 85 |
| Ryan Cook R 2028 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 84 |
| Ryan Middendorf R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.24 | 19.6% | 10.5% | 4.5% | .293 | 4.39 | 12.8% | -1.5% | 34 | -0.85 | 1.27 | 164 | 84 |
| Confesor Lara R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.32 | 16.4% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 111 | 84 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2028 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 84 |
| Ryan Ledbetter R 2024 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.63 | 18.5% | 12.3% | 2.8% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.63 | 124 | 83 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.26 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .211 | 4.51 | 24.6% | 14.3% | 98 | +0.25 | 4.26 | 258 | 83 |
| Matt Lollis R 2025 · 5.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.05 | 19.2% | 14.5% | 3.2% | .221 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 120 | 83 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.02 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.56 | 2.69 | 315 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 67 | 19.3% | 12.4% | 1.29 | 5.22 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |