Natanael Garabitos

P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	22	AModesto Nuts	39	1	40	4.02	3.05	30.2%	17.3%	—	K 22.3% · BB 20.4% · FIP 4.25
2024	23	A+KC	34	0	42	4.46	5.06	17.7%	15.1%	—	K 13.7% · BB 17.3% · FIP 6.06
2025	24	MIX2 levels	31	0	34	7.49	5.77	16.8%	18.5%	—	K 13.3% · BB 20.7% · FIP 6.07
2027PROJ	26	MLBKC	20	0	21	5.79	5.79	17.1%	16.7%	-0.3
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBKC	10	0	11	5.66	5.68	17.7%	16.1%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsHaden Erbe (age 25) · Luis García (age 26) · David Holman (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 127

ERA5.79

FIP5.79

K%17.1%

BB%16.7%

K-BB%0.4%

Proj IP21

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	14	0	20	90	18	17	1	0%	1.5	13.6%	23.6%	-10.0%	1.6%	3.10	5.80	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	14	0	20	90	18	17	1	0%	1.5	20.0%	18.9%	1.1%	1.1%	3.10	4.48	—
2021	20	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	12	7	41	181	57	28	3	58%	3.4	21.4%	19.3%	2.1%	2.6%	5.31	5.15	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	12	7	41	181	57	28	3	58%	3.4	31.5%	15.5%	16.0%	1.7%	5.31	3.32	—
2022	21	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	35	0	44	205	59	35	3	0%	1.3	21.3%	20.1%	1.2%	2.2%	5.11	5.08	—
2022	21	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	35	0	44	205	59	35	3	0%	1.3	28.8%	17.1%	11.7%	1.5%	5.11	3.69	—
2023	22	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	39	1	40	179	54	31	1	3%	1.0	22.3%	20.4%	1.9%	0.8%	4.02	4.25	—
2023	22	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	39	1	40	179	54	31	1	3%	1.0	30.2%	17.3%	12.8%	0.6%	4.02	3.05	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	34	0	42	186	33	28	5	0%	1.2	13.7%	17.3%	-3.7%	3.5%	4.46	6.06	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	34	0	42	186	33	28	5	0%	1.2	13.7%	17.3%	-3.7%	3.5%	4.46	6.06	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	34	0	42	186	33	28	5	0%	1.2	17.7%	15.1%	2.7%	2.7%	4.46	5.06	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	34	173	29	32	4	0%	1.1	13.3%	20.7%	-7.4%	2.7%	7.49	6.07	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	34	173	29	32	4	0%	1.1	13.3%	20.7%	-7.4%	2.7%	7.49	6.07	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	34	173	29	32	4	0%	1.1	16.8%	18.5%	-1.7%	2.3%	7.49	5.77	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	KC	20	0	21	89	15	15	3	0%	1.1	17.1%	16.7%	0.4%	3.0%	5.79	5.79	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	KC	28	0	30	126	22	20	4	0%	1.1	17.7%	16.1%	1.7%	3.0%	5.66	5.68	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	KC	10	0	11	46	8	7	1	0%	1.1	17.7%	16.1%	1.7%	3.0%	5.66	5.68	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	11	47	8	8	1	0%	1.0	17.7%	16.1%	1.7%	3.0%	5.66	5.30	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	143	143	18	0%	1.1	17.7%	16.1%	1.7%	3.0%	5.66	5.30	-1.8
Career	—	MLE		165	8	221	1014	183	202	23	5%	1.3	18.1%	19.9%	-1.9%	2.3%	5.00	5.36	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		149	7	200	916	165	183	21	5%	1.3	18.1%	19.9%	-1.9%	2.3%	5.00	5.36	-2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Natanael Garabitos (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.79	17.1%	16.7%	3.0%	—	5.68	17.7%	1.7%	30	-0.11	—	—	—
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	88
Luis García R 2013 · 4.92 FIP	26	SU	4.92	16.7%	16.7%	2.0%	.270	3.68	20.3%	9.3%	151	-1.24	2.33	662	86
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	83
Trey Haley R 2016 · 4.98 FIP	26	SU	4.98	14.0%	16.5%	1.8%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	111	83
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	82
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	82
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	81
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	81
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	81
Mitchell Osnowitz R 2017 · 5.30 FIP	26	SU	5.30	16.5%	18.7%	2.2%	.366	5.43	19.2%	7.7%	42	+0.13	4.54	132	81
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	81
Tim Elliott R 2023 · 6.21 FIP	25	SU	6.21	15.5%	16.1%	4.3%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	5.54	138	81
Chad Harville R 2003 · 5.17 FIP	26	SU	5.17	17.3%	15.4%	2.9%	.328	4.84	17.6%	6.5%	142	-0.33	4.51	178	81
Harrison Cooney R 2018 · 6.60 FIP	26	SU	6.60	18.8%	21.9%	4.2%	.237	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	186	80
Roman Phansalkar R 2024 · 5.39 FIP	26	SU	5.39	15.8%	13.2%	3.6%	.294	4.33	18.2%	3.7%	31	-1.06	4.33	164	80
Jeremy Guthrie R 2006 · 4.92 FIP	27	SU	4.92	15.1%	15.1%	2.1%	.349	4.57	14.8%	8.1%	566	-0.35	4.08	1,834	80
Cre Finfrock R 2022 · 6.31 FIP	26	SU	6.31	16.7%	25.2%	2.6%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	103	80
Yaramil Hiraldo R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	25	SU	4.86	18.5%	15.5%	2.5%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	155	80
Jake Haberer R 2021 · 6.54 FIP	26	SU	6.54	13.4%	17.5%	4.3%	.287	5.15	19.6%	4.0%	106	-1.39	3.46	183	80
Connor Cooke R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	24	SU	5.02	17.4%	17.0%	2.2%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	2.93	103	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	17.5%	16.3%	1.16	5.71
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*