Benjamin Arias

P Peoria Chiefs

Age 25 RHP 6'5" / 195 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	21	MIX3 levels	15	13	66	4.21	4.11	20.8%	9.5%	—	K 15.5% · BB 11.6% · FIP 5.19
2024	22	MIX2 levels	29	0	66	4.21	2.51	26.1%	6.2%	—	K 19.6% · BB 7.3% · FIP 3.39
2025	23	A+STL	33	0	56	3.67	3.54	17.7%	9.9%	—	K 13.6% · BB 11.4% · FIP 4.38
2027PROJ	25	MLBSTL	67	0	70	5.37	5.37	13.8%	11.7%	-0.6
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBSTL	29	0	30	5.22	5.19	15.5%	11.4%	-0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBSTL	41	0	43	5.16	5.17	16.1%	11.3%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control45Command35

CompsCooper Adams (age 24) · Raymar Navarro (age 25) · Dennis O'Grady (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.37

FIP5.37

K%13.8%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%2.1%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals Blue	18	0	25	140	22	19	1	0%	1.4	10.7%	17.0%	-6.3%	1.0%	8.39	4.90	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals Blue	18	0	25	140	22	19	1	0%	1.4	15.7%	13.6%	2.1%	0.7%	8.39	4.15	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals Blue	12	12	51	207	61	14	2	100%	4.2	20.0%	8.5%	11.6%	1.3%	1.94	3.20	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals Blue	12	12	51	207	61	14	2	100%	4.2	29.5%	6.8%	22.7%	1.0%	1.94	2.04	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	12	11	42	195	40	21	3	92%	3.5	13.9%	13.5%	0.5%	1.9%	3.64	4.68	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	12	11	42	195	40	21	3	92%	3.5	20.5%	10.8%	9.7%	1.5%	3.64	3.62	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	13	66	283	59	27	8	87%	4.4	15.5%	11.6%	3.9%	3.5%	4.21	5.19	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	13	66	283	59	27	8	87%	4.4	20.8%	9.5%	11.3%	2.8%	4.21	4.11	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	66	272	71	17	4	0%	2.3	19.6%	7.3%	12.3%	1.8%	4.21	3.39	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	66	272	71	17	4	0%	2.3	19.6%	7.3%	12.3%	1.8%	4.21	3.39	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	66	272	71	17	4	0%	2.3	26.1%	6.2%	19.9%	1.5%	4.21	2.51	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	33	0	56	243	43	24	3	0%	1.7	13.6%	11.4%	2.3%	1.8%	3.67	4.38	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	33	0	56	243	43	24	3	0%	1.7	13.6%	11.4%	2.3%	1.8%	3.67	4.38	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	33	0	56	243	43	24	3	0%	1.7	17.7%	9.9%	7.8%	1.2%	3.67	3.54	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	STL	67	0	70	296	41	35	8	0%	1.0	13.8%	11.7%	2.1%	2.9%	5.37	5.37	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	STL	67	0	70	296	46	34	8	0%	1.0	15.5%	11.4%	4.1%	2.9%	5.22	5.19	-0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	STL	66	0	69	291	47	33	9	0%	1.0	16.1%	11.3%	4.8%	2.9%	5.16	5.17	-0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	STL	64	0	67	282	46	32	9	0%	1.0	16.4%	11.4%	5.0%	3.0%	5.17	5.21	-0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	STL	61	0	64	270	44	31	9	0%	1.0	16.3%	11.6%	4.7%	3.2%	5.25	5.32	-0.5
2028	26	MLB CTX	STL	29	0	30	127	20	14	4	0%	1.0	15.5%	11.4%	4.1%	2.9%	5.22	5.19	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	STL	41	0	43	182	29	21	5	0%	1.0	16.1%	11.3%	4.8%	2.9%	5.16	5.17	-0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	STL	48	0	50	211	35	24	6	0%	1.0	16.4%	11.4%	5.0%	3.0%	5.17	5.21	-0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	STL	50	0	52	220	36	25	7	0%	1.0	16.3%	11.6%	4.7%	3.2%	5.25	5.32	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		167	0	176	742	120	85	22	0%	1.1	16.1%	11.4%	4.7%	3.0%	5.20	4.85	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	136	97	25	0%	1.1	16.1%	11.4%	4.7%	3.0%	5.20	4.85	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		119	36	307	1340	214	148	27	30%	2.6	15.9%	11.0%	4.9%	2.0%	3.99	4.26	-2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		78	23	200	874	139	96	18	30%	2.6	15.9%	11.0%	4.9%	2.0%	3.99	4.26	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Benjamin Arias (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.37	13.8%	11.7%	2.9%	—	5.19	16.0%	4.6%	206	-0.18	—	—	—
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	88
Raymar Navarro R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	13.1%	11.7%	1.5%	.332	4.29	11.8%	1.0%	41	-0.01	4.29	108	88
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	88
Brad Allen R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	26	SW	4.25	14.0%	12.6%	1.3%	.315	5.82	14.7%	1.5%	87	+1.57	4.25	149	86
Aaron Northcraft R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	25	SW	4.37	13.6%	10.2%	2.1%	.286	4.19	16.1%	7.8%	91	-0.18	3.32	252	86
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	85
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	85
Tyler Santana R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	25	SW	4.43	15.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.306	5.01	15.0%	4.8%	193	+0.58	3.37	401	84
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	84
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	83
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	83
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	83
Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	15.6%	9.5%	3.4%	.354	3.77	20.2%	10.8%	111	-1.07	3.73	186	82
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	82
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	81
Lance Cormier R 2006 · 4.55 FIP	25	SW	4.55	12.9%	9.6%	2.4%	.328	4.73	12.7%	4.2%	195	+0.18	3.80	469	81
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	81
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	81
Ross Ohlendorf R 2008 · 4.73 FIP	25	SW	4.73	16.3%	9.3%	3.3%	.357	4.63	15.4%	7.7%	324	-0.10	3.30	617	80
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	15.6%	11.5%	1.15	5.23
Luther Hackman ('03)	1.1	71	13.3%	10.9%	1.10	5.09
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Jim Winn ('83-'88, -1 WAR*)	1.5	77	15.1%*	11.0%*	1.09*	4.96*