Kohl Drake

P Reno Aces

Age 27 LHP 6'5" / 220 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAASP40-MANROOKIEFG #275

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX3 levels	23	19	106	2.29	2.29	35.4%	7.4%	—	K 26.9% · BB 8.5% · FIP 3.32
2025	25	MIX2 levels	20	19	89	4.23	3.39	28.2%	9.6%	—	K 23.3% · BB 9.8% · FIP 4.16
2026	26	MIX2 levels	26	24	101	7.31	5.78	17.5%	10.6%	-1.0	K 15.5% · BB 9.7% · FIP 5.76
2027PROJ	27	MLBARI	21	21	126	4.89	5.20	18.3%	8.7%	-0.4
2028PROJ64% MLB	28	MLBARI	14	14	81	5.03	5.19	18.6%	8.7%	-0.3
2029PROJ74% MLB	29	MLBARI	15	15	89	5.15	5.28	18.2%	8.9%	-0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.0 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

Whiff%27

K%21

FB Velo10

xwOBA vs10

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsBrad Mills (age 26) · Matt Lujan (age 27) · Ben Holmes (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116124vR 132

ERA4.89

FIP5.20

K%18.3%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%9.6%

Proj IP126

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 126 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL—50

CMD5060

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.6

Whiff%

p2722.0%

p2117.9%

xwOBA vs

p100.412

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	4	47	217	55	20	4	29%	3.3	16.3%	11.9%	4.4%	2.9%	6.36	4.81	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	4	47	217	55	20	4	29%	3.3	25.3%	9.2%	16.1%	1.8%	6.36	3.14	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	19	106	418	148	31	9	83%	4.6	26.9%	8.5%	18.5%	2.6%	2.29	3.32	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	19	106	418	148	31	9	83%	4.6	26.9%	8.5%	18.5%	2.6%	2.29	3.32	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	19	106	418	148	31	9	83%	4.6	35.4%	7.4%	28.0%	2.2%	2.29	2.29	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	89	376	106	36	10	95%	4.5	23.3%	9.8%	13.5%	3.3%	4.23	4.16	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	89	376	106	36	10	95%	4.5	23.3%	9.8%	13.5%	3.3%	4.23	4.16	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	19	89	376	106	36	10	95%	4.5	28.2%	9.6%	18.6%	2.7%	4.23	3.39	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	101	480	84	51	22	92%	3.9	15.5%	9.7%	5.8%	5.0%	7.31	5.76	-1.0
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	101	480	84	51	22	92%	3.9	15.5%	9.7%	5.8%	5.0%	7.31	5.76	-1.0
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	24	101	480	84	51	22	92%	3.9	17.5%	10.6%	6.9%	4.6%	7.31	5.78	-1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			5	5	21	95	17	7	5	100%	4.1	17.9%	7.4%	10.5%	5.3%	6.53	5.62	-0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	ARI	21	21	126	532	97	46	21	100%	6.0	18.3%	8.7%	9.6%	3.9%	4.89	5.20	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	ARI	21	21	126	532	99	46	21	100%	6.0	18.6%	8.7%	9.8%	4.0%	5.03	5.19	-0.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	ARI	20	20	120	508	93	45	20	100%	6.0	18.2%	8.9%	9.3%	4.0%	5.15	5.28	-0.5
2030	30	MLB MLE	ARI	19	19	113	478	85	44	20	100%	6.0	17.7%	9.1%	8.6%	4.2%	5.30	5.43	-0.7
2028	28	MLB CTX	ARI	14	14	81	342	63	30	14	100%	5.8	18.6%	8.7%	9.8%	4.0%	5.03	5.19	-0.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	ARI	15	15	89	376	69	33	15	100%	5.9	18.2%	8.9%	9.3%	4.0%	5.15	5.28	-0.4
2030	30	MLB CTX	ARI	15	15	91	384	68	35	16	100%	6.1	17.7%	9.1%	8.6%	4.2%	5.30	5.43	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		48	48	281	1196	217	105	50	100%	5.9	18.1%	8.8%	9.3%	4.2%	5.27	4.96	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	850	154	75	36	100%	5.8	18.1%	8.8%	9.3%	4.2%	5.27	4.96	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		83	66	343	1491	310	145	53	80%	4.1	20.8%	9.7%	11.1%	3.6%	4.83	4.53	-1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	38	200	869	181	84	31	80%	4.1	20.8%	9.7%	11.1%	3.6%	4.83	4.53	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kohl Drake (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.20	18.3%	8.7%	3.9%	—	5.30	18.2%	9.3%	359	+0.10	—	—	—
Brad Mills L 2011 · 5.37 FIP	26	SP-	5.37	19.8%	12.1%	4.4%	.328	5.61	18.8%	7.9%	21	+0.24	4.22	243	80
Matt Lujan L 2016 · 5.05 FIP	27	SP	5.05	18.5%	11.3%	3.8%	.319	4.69	14.3%	7.9%	70	-0.36	4.06	227	71
Ben Holmes L 2019 · 5.57 FIP	27	SP	5.57	19.7%	11.1%	5.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	451	70
Hayden Wynja L 2024 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP-	4.79	18.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.74	154	68
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.34	16.7%	9.5%	356	-0.53	3.68	579	67
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	67
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	66
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	65
Houston Harding L 2024 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	16.5%	11.2%	2.6%	.268	5.19	12.0%	0.5%	61	+0.65	3.41	239	65
Taylor Varnell L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	20.1%	10.3%	3.2%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	248	65
Dylan Dodd L 2024 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	17.5%	6.0%	4.2%	.338	3.97	26.5%	21.7%	123	-0.74	3.31	475	64
Matt Chico L 2008 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP-	5.34	14.2%	7.3%	4.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	5.15	215	64
Chris O'Grady L 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP-	4.33	21.4%	9.0%	3.5%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	232	64
Dan Serafini L 2000 · 5.27 FIP	26	SP-	5.27	11.7%	9.0%	3.7%	.300	5.44	9.2%	0.0%	30	+0.17	3.71	259	63
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	63
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	63
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	63
David Purcey L 2009 · 4.75 FIP	27	SP	4.75	17.5%	13.0%	2.7%	.322	4.13	18.2%	5.4%	68	-0.62	3.60	206	63
Avery Weems L 2022 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	21.3%	8.6%	4.5%	.323	5.13	20.5%	12.3%	38	+0.26	2.46	227	63
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	101	18.2%	8.8%	1.58	5.15
Bill Grahame ('08-'10, 0 WAR*)	1.7	116	17.7%*	9.3%*	1.52*	5.11*
Brandon Claussen ('06)	1.6	105	16.0%	8.5%	1.37	5.04
Matt Beech ('98)	1.5	98	20.2%	10.0%	1.59	5.37
Jack Armstrong ('88-'94, 2 WAR*)	3.9	131	19.2%*	9.2%*	1.59*	4.89*
Yank Terry ('40-'45, 0 WAR*)	2.3	114	18.0%*	9.4%*	1.76*	4.99*
Kevin Foster ('01)	2.5	127	18.9%	10.0%	1.55	4.86