Anthony Molina

P Sacramento River Cats

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

AAASP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MLBCOL	35	1	60	6.79	3.87	15.5%	8.0%	0.5
2025	23	MIX2 levels	32	16	104	6.81	5.31	15.0%	7.2%	-0.5	K 13.6% · BB 6.6% · FIP 5.03
2026	24	MIX2 levels	30	17	97	3.70	3.36	24.0%	7.2%	1.8	K 21.7% · BB 6.7% · FIP 3.62
2027PROJ	25	MLBSF	55	0	58	4.97	4.62	18.6%	7.4%	-0.0
2028PROJ68% MLB	26	MLBSF	65	0	68	4.75	4.60	18.8%	7.3%	-0.0
2029PROJ78% MLB	27	MLBSF	77	0	81	4.68	4.63	18.8%	7.4%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.8 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo75

xwOBA vs65

K%53

Whiff%35

CompsJeff Niemann (age 25) · Sergio Mitre (age 25) · Shohei Tomioka (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.97

FIP4.62

K%18.6%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%11.3%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD3535

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7596.3

Whiff%

p3523.2%

p5322.8%

xwOBA vs

p650.297

SL+1.4 (16%)

CU (15%)

CT-1.2 (2%)

CH-2.5 (18%)

FB-11.8 (49%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 1	14	8	53	231	31	9	1	57%	3.8	9.1%	4.9%	4.3%	0.6%	3.23	3.28	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rays 1	14	8	53	231	31	9	1	57%	3.8	13.4%	3.9%	9.5%	0.4%	3.23	2.68	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	12	3	31	124	36	8	2	25%	2.6	19.7%	8.1%	11.7%	2.4%	2.61	3.76	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	12	3	31	124	36	8	2	25%	2.6	29.0%	6.5%	22.6%	1.6%	2.61	2.39	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	7	96	396	85	19	10	24%	3.3	15.6%	5.6%	10.0%	3.3%	3.10	4.31	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	7	96	396	85	19	10	24%	3.3	21.5%	4.8%	16.7%	2.5%	3.10	3.28	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	122	548	102	38	13	96%	4.4	15.5%	7.0%	8.6%	2.5%	4.50	4.04	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	27	122	548	102	38	13	96%	4.4	18.6%	6.9%	11.7%	2.4%	4.50	3.75	—
2024	22	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	35	1	60	264	41	21	5	3%	1.7	15.5%	8.0%	7.6%	1.7%	6.79	3.72	+0.6
2024	22	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	35	1	60	264	41	21	5	3%	1.7	15.5%	8.0%	7.6%	1.7%	6.79	3.72	+0.6
2024	22	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	35	1	60	264	41	21	5	3%	1.7	15.5%	8.0%	7.6%	1.9%	6.79	3.87	+0.5
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	16	104	499	75	36	21	50%	3.3	13.6%	6.6%	7.0%	4.1%	6.81	5.03	-0.2
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	16	104	499	75	36	21	50%	3.3	13.6%	6.6%	7.0%	4.1%	6.81	5.03	-0.2
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	16	104	499	75	36	21	50%	3.3	15.0%	7.2%	7.8%	4.2%	6.81	5.31	-0.5
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	17	97	400	96	29	10	57%	3.2	21.7%	6.7%	15.0%	2.7%	3.70	3.62	+1.5
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	17	97	400	96	29	10	57%	3.2	21.7%	6.7%	15.0%	2.7%	3.70	3.62	+1.5
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	17	97	400	96	29	10	57%	3.2	24.0%	7.2%	16.8%	2.5%	3.70	3.36	+1.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			61	7	128	560	96	34	20	11%	2.1	17.1%	6.1%	11.1%	3.6%	6.17	4.42	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	SF	55	0	58	245	46	18	8	0%	1.1	18.6%	7.4%	11.3%	3.2%	4.97	4.62	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	SF	96	0	101	426	80	31	14	0%	1.1	18.8%	7.3%	11.5%	3.2%	4.75	4.60	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	SF	98	0	103	437	82	32	14	0%	1.1	18.8%	7.4%	11.4%	3.3%	4.68	4.63	-0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	SF	98	0	103	437	82	33	15	0%	1.1	18.7%	7.5%	11.2%	3.4%	4.70	4.72	-0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	SF	94	0	99	417	75	32	15	0%	1.1	18.1%	7.8%	10.3%	3.5%	4.81	4.88	-0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	SF	88	0	93	392	68	32	15	0%	1.1	17.4%	8.1%	9.3%	3.7%	4.97	5.08	-0.6
2028	26	MLB CTX	SF	65	0	68	287	54	21	9	0%	1.0	18.8%	7.3%	11.5%	3.2%	4.75	4.60	-0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	SF	77	0	81	342	64	25	11	0%	1.1	18.8%	7.4%	11.4%	3.3%	4.68	4.63	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	SF	83	0	87	367	69	28	12	0%	1.0	18.7%	7.5%	11.2%	3.4%	4.70	4.72	-0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	SF	83	0	87	367	67	29	13	0%	1.0	18.1%	7.8%	10.3%	3.5%	4.81	4.88	-0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	SF	80	0	84	355	62	29	13	0%	1.1	17.4%	8.1%	9.3%	3.7%	4.97	5.08	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		448	7	535	2276	411	165	79	2%	1.2	18.1%	7.3%	10.8%	3.5%	5.12	4.40	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		168	3	200	851	154	62	30	2%	1.2	18.1%	7.3%	10.8%	3.5%	5.12	4.40	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		180	79	563	2462	388	162	67	44%	3.1	15.8%	6.6%	9.2%	2.7%	4.57	4.10	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	28	200	875	138	58	24	44%	3.1	15.8%	6.6%	9.2%	2.7%	4.57	4.10	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Anthony Molina (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.62	18.6%	7.4%	3.2%	—	4.65	18.8%	11.4%	308	+0.03	—	—	—
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	75
Sergio Mitre R 2006 · 4.89 FIP	25	SW	4.89	16.4%	9.0%	3.7%	.276	3.91	12.4%	6.8%	201	-0.98	3.55	602	75
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	74
Juan Gutierrez R 2007 · 3.96 FIP	24	SW	3.96	17.2%	4.3%	3.2%	.314	3.83	20.4%	12.6%	128	-0.13	2.67	379	74
Steven Bruce R 2017 · 3.69 FIP	25	SW	3.69	14.9%	5.0%	2.2%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.8%	94	+0.25	3.69	148	74
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	74
Darrell Rasner R 2006 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP-	4.07	13.3%	6.0%	2.4%	.246	4.56	12.5%	5.2%	138	+0.49	4.07	158	73
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	73
Noah Gotsis R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SP-	3.48	16.5%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	4.25	15.9%	8.6%	90	+0.77	3.48	138	72
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	71
P.J. Walters R 2010 · 4.93 FIP	25	SW	4.93	17.1%	7.8%	4.2%	.293	5.05	14.1%	5.6%	101	+0.12	3.97	230	71
Liam Hendriks R 2014 · 3.61 FIP	25	SP-	3.61	16.1%	4.9%	2.3%	.318	2.65	27.2%	21.8%	193	-0.96	0.63	684	71
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	71
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	71
Ryan Drese R 2001 · 3.58 FIP	25	SW	3.58	16.1%	8.7%	1.3%	.273	4.20	12.8%	5.2%	391	+0.62	3.58	557	71
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	70
John Patterson R 2003 · 4.44 FIP	25	SP-	4.44	17.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.305	3.64	22.7%	15.5%	337	-0.80	2.90	454	70
Trennor O'Donnell R 2024 · 3.45 FIP	23	SW	3.45	18.2%	8.6%	1.5%	.326	6.32	14.2%	0.6%	44	+2.87	3.45	107	70
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	70
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	76	18.2%	7.3%	1.33	5.06
Chad Bettis ('19)	3.0	86	16.2%	7.9%	1.18	5.12
Pete Burnside ('55-'63, -2 WAR*)	2.8	95	17.6%*	8.6%*	1.33*	5.17*
Ross Ohlendorf ('16)	2.9	84	17.2%	8.6%	1.38	4.82
Earl Caldwell ('28-'48, 2 WAR*)	2.9	73	16.9%*	8.7%*	1.35*	4.61*
Wade LeBlanc ('21)	4.7	72	16.9%	7.1%	1.45	4.54
Bill Trotter ('37-'44, -3 WAR*)	2.4	97	15.3%*	7.0%*	1.43*	4.99*