Michael Arias

P Somerset Patriots

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 160 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	49	0	60	4.77	4.08	25.2%	16.1%	—	K 21.2% · BB 15.3% · FIP 4.38
2025	23	MIX4 levels	23	3	30	2.73	3.27	27.1%	12.8%	—	K 24.5% · BB 17.2% · FIP 4.54
2026	24	AANYY	42	1	54	5.20	4.22	24.2%	10.0%	—	K 19.6% · BB 11.0% · FIP 5.04
2027PROJ	25	MLBNYY	30	0	31	4.96	4.96	20.9%	12.1%	-0.1
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBNYY	20	0	21	4.88	4.87	21.4%	11.8%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBNYY	29	0	30	4.86	4.87	21.5%	11.6%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsFrancisco Del Rosario (age 25) · Ryan Conroy (age 25) · Barrett Loseke (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.96

FIP4.96

K%20.9%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%8.9%

Proj IP31

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 31 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	16	0	23	100	22	14	2	0%	1.5	15.0%	17.5%	-2.5%	1.8%	3.09	5.06	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Blue	16	0	23	100	22	14	2	0%	1.5	22.0%	14.0%	8.0%	2.0%	3.09	4.13	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	10	17	82	23	22	2	100%	1.7	20.1%	32.8%	-12.7%	4.8%	4.76	8.18	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	10	17	82	23	22	2	100%	1.7	28.0%	26.8%	1.2%	2.4%	4.76	5.81	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	81	352	110	51	3	100%	3.7	23.5%	16.9%	6.6%	1.0%	4.09	3.79	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	81	352	110	51	3	100%	3.7	31.2%	14.5%	16.8%	0.9%	4.09	2.76	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	60	286	72	46	5	0%	1.2	21.2%	15.3%	5.9%	2.1%	4.77	4.38	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	60	286	72	46	5	0%	1.2	21.2%	15.3%	5.9%	2.1%	4.77	4.38	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	60	286	72	46	5	0%	1.2	25.2%	16.1%	9.1%	1.7%	4.77	4.08	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	23	3	30	133	36	17	2	13%	1.3	24.5%	17.2%	7.3%	2.4%	2.73	4.54	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	23	3	30	133	36	17	2	13%	1.3	24.5%	17.2%	7.3%	2.4%	2.73	4.54	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	23	3	30	133	36	17	2	13%	1.3	27.1%	12.8%	14.3%	1.5%	2.73	3.27	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	42	1	54	240	58	24	8	2%	1.3	19.6%	11.0%	8.6%	4.0%	5.20	5.04	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	42	1	54	240	58	24	8	2%	1.3	19.6%	11.0%	8.6%	4.0%	5.20	5.04	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	42	1	54	240	58	24	8	2%	1.3	24.2%	10.0%	14.2%	3.3%	5.20	4.22	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	NYY	30	0	31	131	27	16	4	0%	1.0	20.9%	12.1%	8.9%	3.1%	4.96	4.96	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYY	46	0	48	204	44	24	6	0%	1.1	21.4%	11.8%	9.6%	3.1%	4.88	4.87	-0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	NYY	45	0	48	201	43	23	6	0%	1.1	21.5%	11.6%	9.9%	3.2%	4.86	4.87	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYY	20	0	21	89	19	10	3	0%	1.1	21.4%	11.8%	9.6%	3.1%	4.88	4.87	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	NYY	29	0	30	127	27	15	4	0%	1.0	21.5%	11.6%	9.9%	3.2%	4.86	4.87	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		49	0	51	217	47	25	7	0%	1.0	21.5%	11.7%	9.8%	3.1%	4.87	4.49	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	97	27	0%	1.1	21.5%	11.7%	9.8%	3.1%	4.87	4.49	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		162	36	265	1193	254	197	28	22%	1.6	21.3%	16.5%	4.8%	2.3%	4.27	4.67	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		122	27	200	899	192	148	21	22%	1.6	21.3%	16.5%	4.8%	2.3%	4.27	4.67	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Arias (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.96	20.9%	12.1%	3.1%	—	4.87	21.5%	9.8%	96	-0.09	—	—	—
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	88
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	84
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.24	23.5%	12.2%	22	+0.82	4.42	152	83
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	82
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	82
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	82
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	82
Garrett Apker R 2024 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	19.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.288	8.46	15.4%	-7.6%	11	+4.45	4.01	101	82
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	82
Luis Vizcaino R 2000 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	18.8%	11.5%	2.1%	.354	4.31	22.7%	14.9%	180	+0.20	3.07	564	81
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	81
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	81
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	81
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	81
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	81
Carlos Fisher R 2009 · 3.90 FIP	26	SU	3.90	21.2%	12.8%	1.8%	.317	3.80	18.2%	8.1%	46	-0.10	2.48	245	81
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	81
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	81
Rhiner Cruz R 2012 · 4.80 FIP	25	SU	4.80	18.2%	11.5%	3.2%	.335	4.81	10.2%	-1.0%	21	+0.01	3.21	127	81
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	42	21.3%	11.8%	1.21	4.89
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71