Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 6 | 35 | 138 | 51 | 11 | 2 | 60% | 3.5 | 25.9% | 9.4% | 16.5% | 3.1% | 1.80 | 3.82 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 6 | 35 | 138 | 51 | 11 | 2 | 60% | 3.5 | 37.0% | 8.0% | 29.0% | 1.4% | 1.80 | 1.87 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 40 | 0 | 71 | 325 | 81 | 48 | 3 | 0% | 1.8 | 19.2% | 17.0% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 4.04 | 4.05 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 40 | 0 | 71 | 325 | 81 | 48 | 3 | 0% | 1.8 | 24.9% | 14.8% | 10.2% | 0.9% | 4.04 | 3.39 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 48 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 13.0% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 49 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 47 | 0 | 49 | 208 | 48 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.37 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 50 | 0 | 52 | 221 | 51 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.01 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 195 | 84 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.01 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 50 | 6 | 106 | 463 | 98 | 68 | 7 | 12% | 2.1 | 21.2% | 14.7% | 6.5% | 1.5% | 3.30 | 3.98 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 94 | 11 | 200 | 871 | 185 | 128 | 13 | 12% | 2.1 | 21.2% | 14.7% | 6.5% | 1.5% | 3.30 | 3.98 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cooper Benson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.38 | 23.2% | 13.3% | 99 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Sean Mellen L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 86 |
| Will Gilbert L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 141 | 83 |
| Colton Johnson L 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 83 |
| Brian Flynn L 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.78 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.41 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.63 | 3.78 | 277 | 82 |
| Greg Nappo L 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.40 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .267 | 5.45 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +2.05 | 3.40 | 144 | 82 |
| Michael Theofanopoulos L 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.66 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 201 | 81 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.61 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.97 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.36 | 1.79 | 186 | 81 |
| Brandon Hughes L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.62 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.5% | .300 | 4.49 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 149 | +0.87 | 3.62 | 206 | 81 |
| Paul Fry L 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.00 | 21.2% | 11.7% | 4.0% | .338 | 3.46 | 24.6% | 14.6% | 159 | -1.54 | 1.78 | 560 | 81 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.93 | 22.0% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .294 | 4.22 | 19.9% | 7.8% | 96 | +0.29 | 3.65 | 308 | 80 |
| Carson Skipper L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.65 | 19.9% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .301 | 7.84 | 8.3% | -4.8% | 10 | +4.19 | 2.87 | 186 | 80 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.38 | 19.0% | 9.9% | 1.1% | .304 | 4.49 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 276 | +1.11 | 3.38 | 353 | 80 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .276 | 3.94 | 26.5% | 12.9% | 82 | -0.23 | 2.83 | 271 | 79 |
| Jackson Lancaster L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.45 | 24.0% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .355 | 5.10 | 17.6% | 4.9% | 78 | +0.65 | 4.28 | 127 | 79 |
| Jerry Vasto L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.92 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 2.5% | .382 | 3.44 | 24.0% | 12.5% | 38 | -0.48 | 2.84 | 206 | 79 |
| Kit Scheetz L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.45 | 22.9% | 8.7% | 4.0% | .340 | 5.20 | 16.2% | 2.6% | 55 | +0.75 | 2.34 | 195 | 79 |
| Williams Jerez L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.98 | 17.8% | 8.7% | 2.3% | .294 | 3.84 | 24.0% | 15.1% | 127 | -0.14 | 3.54 | 364 | 79 |
| Jake Kalish L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.96 | 17.8% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .231 | 3.85 | 17.0% | 11.9% | 352 | -0.11 | 2.68 | 740 | 78 |
| Brian Clark L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.85 | 19.6% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 248 | 78 |
| Kyle Bird L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.73 | 24.4% | 11.3% | 2.3% | .250 | 5.55 | 20.6% | 6.3% | 47 | +1.82 | 2.68 | 379 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 50 | 23.1% | 9.9% | 1.13 | 4.39 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |