Gabriel Barbosa

P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 200 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	ANYY	24	20	120	5.09	3.32	24.7%	7.3%	—	K 18.3% · BB 8.7% · FIP 4.48
2025	23	MIX3 levels	33	8	87	3.62	3.41	18.6%	7.8%	—	K 14.2% · BB 9.0% · FIP 4.10
2026	24	MIX3 levels	18	4	42	5.57	4.91	24.2%	6.5%	—	K 20.1% · BB 6.2% · FIP 5.87
2027PROJ	25	MLBPHI	57	0	60	5.43	5.43	15.1%	10.3%	-0.6
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBPHI	32	0	34	5.28	5.26	16.5%	10.1%	-0.3
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBPHI	47	0	49	5.22	5.23	17.0%	10.1%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control40Command30

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsHunter Adkins (age 25) · Colby Morris (age 25) · Dakota Hawkins (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.43

FIP5.43

K%15.1%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%4.8%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	16	4	34	152	23	10	2	25%	2.1	10.3%	8.2%	2.1%	1.8%	4.28	4.28	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	16	4	34	152	23	10	2	25%	2.1	15.1%	6.6%	8.6%	1.3%	4.28	3.40	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	13	9	45	171	37	4	2	69%	3.5	14.7%	2.9%	11.8%	1.4%	2.20	3.02	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	13	9	45	171	37	4	2	69%	3.5	21.6%	2.3%	19.3%	1.2%	2.20	2.30	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	6	44	181	41	4	3	50%	3.7	16.4%	3.2%	13.2%	2.9%	3.68	3.71	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	6	44	181	41	4	3	50%	3.7	22.7%	2.2%	20.4%	1.7%	3.68	2.40	—
2023	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	22	13	94	419	82	19	5	59%	4.3	14.5%	5.4%	9.1%	1.3%	5.44	3.27	—
2023	21	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	22	13	94	419	82	19	5	59%	4.3	19.6%	4.5%	15.0%	1.2%	5.44	2.65	—
2024	22	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	24	20	120	518	128	38	13	83%	5.0	18.3%	8.7%	9.6%	3.3%	5.09	4.48	—
2024	22	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	24	20	120	518	128	38	13	83%	5.0	18.3%	8.7%	9.6%	3.3%	5.09	4.48	—
2024	22	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	24	20	120	518	128	38	13	83%	5.0	24.7%	7.3%	17.4%	2.5%	5.09	3.32	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	8	87	371	69	29	6	24%	2.6	14.2%	9.0%	5.2%	1.9%	3.62	4.10	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	8	87	371	69	29	6	24%	2.6	14.2%	9.0%	5.2%	1.9%	3.62	4.10	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	33	8	87	371	69	29	6	24%	2.6	18.6%	7.8%	10.8%	1.6%	3.62	3.41	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	4	42	186	45	12	10	22%	2.3	20.1%	6.2%	13.9%	6.7%	5.57	5.87	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	4	42	186	45	12	10	22%	2.3	20.1%	6.2%	13.9%	6.7%	5.57	5.87	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	4	42	186	45	12	10	22%	2.3	24.2%	6.5%	17.7%	5.4%	5.57	4.91	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	PHI	57	0	60	253	38	26	9	0%	1.1	15.1%	10.3%	4.8%	3.5%	5.43	5.43	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	PHI	75	0	78	331	55	33	11	0%	1.0	16.5%	10.1%	6.4%	3.4%	5.28	5.26	-0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	PHI	73	0	77	326	55	33	11	0%	1.1	17.0%	10.1%	6.9%	3.5%	5.22	5.23	-0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	PHI	71	0	75	316	54	32	11	0%	1.1	17.2%	10.2%	7.0%	3.5%	5.23	5.27	-0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	PHI	68	0	71	301	52	31	11	0%	1.1	17.1%	10.4%	6.7%	3.7%	5.31	5.37	-0.6
2032	30	MLB MLE	PHI	64	0	67	283	48	30	11	0%	1.0	16.8%	10.7%	6.0%	3.9%	5.45	5.55	-0.7
2028	26	MLB CTX	PHI	32	0	34	144	24	15	5	0%	1.1	16.5%	10.1%	6.4%	3.4%	5.28	5.26	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	PHI	47	0	49	207	35	21	7	0%	1.0	17.0%	10.1%	6.9%	3.5%	5.22	5.23	-0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	PHI	53	0	56	236	41	24	8	0%	1.1	17.2%	10.2%	7.0%	3.5%	5.23	5.27	-0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	PHI	55	0	58	245	42	26	9	0%	1.1	17.1%	10.4%	6.7%	3.7%	5.31	5.37	-0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	PHI	55	0	58	245	41	26	9	0%	1.1	16.8%	10.7%	6.0%	3.9%	5.45	5.55	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		243	0	256	1079	183	112	39	0%	1.1	17.0%	10.4%	6.6%	3.6%	5.30	4.97	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	143	88	31	0%	1.1	17.0%	10.4%	6.6%	3.6%	5.30	4.97	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		138	64	466	1998	316	136	53	46%	3.4	15.8%	6.8%	9.0%	2.6%	4.46	4.08	-3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	27	200	857	136	58	23	46%	3.4	15.8%	6.8%	9.0%	2.6%	4.46	4.08	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gabriel Barbosa (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.43	15.1%	10.3%	3.5%	—	5.25	16.9%	6.7%	230	-0.18	—	—	—
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	86
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	86
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	85
Jake Bray R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	25	SP-	5.37	15.4%	11.2%	3.9%	.294	5.65	20.5%	7.7%	61	+0.28	2.51	198	85
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	84
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	84
Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	15.6%	9.5%	3.4%	.354	3.77	20.2%	10.8%	111	-1.07	3.73	186	83
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	83
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	83
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	82
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	81
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	81
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	81
Tyler Santana R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	25	SW	4.43	15.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.306	5.01	15.0%	4.8%	193	+0.58	3.37	401	81
Marco Camarena R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	25	SW	4.49	11.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.365	3.75	8.4%	0.9%	73	-0.74	3.75	142	81
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	81
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	80
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	80
Erich Uelmen R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	25	SW	5.32	17.9%	11.0%	4.3%	.267	3.88	19.9%	9.1%	112	-1.44	3.48	383	79
Mike Franco R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	25	SP-	4.75	17.2%	12.9%	2.7%	.251	4.33	21.9%	12.7%	98	-0.42	3.11	322	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	71	16.7%	10.3%	1.38	5.31
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Lance Painter ('03)	2.2	56	16.7%	9.0%	1.32	5.24
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*