Theo McDowell prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Theo McDowell P Frisco RoughRiders

Age 27 RHP 6'6" / 220 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.95

FIP4.95

K%22.1%

BB%13.0%

K-BB%9.1%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	19	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	11	0	16	79	9	10	1	0%	1.5	7.7%	15.8%	-8.1%	1.8%	9.37	5.42	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	11	0	16	79	9	10	1	0%	1.5	11.4%	12.7%	-1.3%	1.3%	9.37	4.63	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	28	133	50	25	6	0%	1.6	26.8%	22.8%	4.0%	6.1%	7.07	7.05	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	0	28	133	50	25	6	0%	1.6	37.6%	18.8%	18.8%	4.5%	7.07	4.99	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	48	188	59	24	2	0%	1.3	23.6%	14.9%	8.7%	1.4%	2.64	3.74	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	48	188	59	24	2	0%	1.3	31.4%	12.8%	18.6%	1.1%	2.64	2.68	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	41	200	49	33	7	0%	1.3	19.7%	19.5%	0.1%	5.1%	7.62	6.71	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	41	200	49	33	7	0%	1.3	19.7%	19.5%	0.1%	5.1%	7.62	6.71	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	41	200	49	33	7	0%	1.3	24.5%	16.5%	8.0%	3.5%	7.62	5.33	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	TEX	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.1%	13.0%	9.1%	3.1%	4.95	4.95	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	TEX	19	0	20	84	19	11	3	0%	1.1	22.1%	12.8%	9.3%	3.2%	4.94	4.97	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	TEX	8	0	8	34	7	4	1	0%	1.0	22.1%	12.8%	9.3%	3.2%	4.94	4.97	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	8	32	7	4	1	0%	1.1	22.1%	12.8%	9.3%	3.2%	4.94	4.59	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	106	27	0%	1.1	22.1%	12.8%	9.3%	3.2%	4.94	4.59	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		100	0	133	600	125	110	22	0%	1.3	20.9%	18.3%	2.6%	3.7%	5.94	5.69	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		150	0	200	900	188	165	33	0%	1.3	20.9%	18.3%	2.6%	3.7%	5.94	5.69	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Theo McDowell (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.95	22.1%	13.0%	3.1%	—	4.97	22.1%	9.3%	20	+0.02	—	—	—
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	87
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	87
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	84
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	84
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	84
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	83
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	83
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	83
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	83
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	83
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.74	25.9%	15.2%	147	-0.60	2.97	194	82
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	82
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	82
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	82
Scott Dohmann R 2005 · 4.93 FIP	27	SU	4.93	24.5%	12.6%	4.2%	.321	4.69	18.9%	7.5%	96	-0.24	4.28	173	82
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	82
Grant Balfour R 2004 · 3.79 FIP	26	SU	3.79	24.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.292	4.01	24.8%	8.3%	25	+0.22	2.04	533	82
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	81
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	81
Michael Ynoa R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	23.1%	13.8%	3.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	142	81