Caleb Ricketts
C Reading Fightin Phils| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AAPHI | 308 | .219/.334/.338 | 7 | 1 | 63 | — | .200/.292/.289 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA/A+PHI | 254 | .261/.304/.395 | 6 | 0 | 63 | — | .236/.269/.335 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA/AAPHI | 398 | .216/.268/.392 | 15 | 2 | 45 | — | .189/.227/.322 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 27 | MLBPHI | 3 | .197/.243/.321 | 0 | 0 | 54 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 28 | MLBPHI | 60 | .197/.245/.321 | 2 | 0 | 55 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 45
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 22 | A | Clearwater Threshers | — | 94 | 81 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 259 | 362 | 370 | 732 | 111 | 375 | 32 | 12 | 337 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 188 | 170 | 37 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 35 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 218 | 289 | 300 | 589 | 82 | 256 | 19 | 8 | 270 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Clearwater Threshers | — | 100 | 95 | 35 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 368 | 394 | 547 | 941 | 179 | 415 | 13 | 3 | 409 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 53 | 43 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 256 | 373 | 302 | 675 | 47 | 333 | 23 | 8 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 308 | 260 | 57 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 32 | 61 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 219 | 334 | 338 | 673 | 119 | 256 | 20 | 10 | 310 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 238 | 223 | 57 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 44 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 256 | 303 | 399 | 702 | 143 | 295 | 18 | 6 | 313 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 16 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 333 | 333 | 667 | 333 | 6 | 0 | 283 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 175 | 168 | 29 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 173 | 201 | 315 | 517 | 143 | 210 | 26 | 3 | 227 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 223 | 202 | 51 | 8 | 0 | 11 | 15 | 50 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 252 | 320 | 455 | 775 | 203 | 282 | 22 | 7 | 342 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 94 | 84 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 202 | 287 | 274 | 561 | 71 | 358 | 44 | 9 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 188 | 176 | 32 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 46 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 182 | 230 | 261 | 491 | 80 | 223 | 24 | 5 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 100 | 97 | 30 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 309 | 323 | 464 | 787 | 155 | 354 | 17 | 1 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 308 | 270 | 54 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 76 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 292 | 289 | 581 | 89 | 251 | 25 | 7 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 238 | 227 | 52 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 53 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 229 | 265 | 335 | 600 | 106 | 279 | 22 | 4 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ MLE | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 16 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 333 | 333 | 667 | 294 | 6 | 0 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 175 | 170 | 25 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 55 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 147 | 167 | 259 | 425 | 112 | 190 | 31 | 2 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 223 | 207 | 46 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 61 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 222 | 275 | 372 | 647 | 150 | 266 | 27 | 4 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 94 | 84 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 202 | 287 | 274 | 561 | 71 | 366 | 44 | 9 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A RAW | Clearwater Threshers | — | 94 | 81 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 259 | 362 | 370 | 732 | 111 | 375 | 32 | 12 | 337 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 341 | 317 | 72 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 75 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 227 | 273 | 322 | 595 | 95 | 281 | 22 | 4 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 341 | 308 | 83 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 60 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 269 | 332 | 377 | 709 | 107 | 319 | 18 | 6 | 317 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 308 | 270 | 54 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 76 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 292 | 289 | 581 | 89 | 255 | 25 | 7 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA RAW | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 308 | 260 | 57 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 32 | 61 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 219 | 334 | 338 | 673 | 119 | 256 | 20 | 10 | 310 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 254 | 242 | 56 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 54 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 231 | 265 | 331 | 595 | 99 | 281 | 21 | 4 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 254 | 238 | 62 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 45 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 261 | 304 | 395 | 699 | 134 | 298 | 18 | 6 | 311 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 398 | 376 | 70 | 17 | 0 | 11 | 15 | 116 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 186 | 227 | 319 | 546 | 133 | 235 | 29 | 4 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 398 | 370 | 80 | 20 | 0 | 15 | 21 | 96 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 216 | 268 | 392 | 660 | 176 | 249 | 24 | 5 | 291 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 94 | 84 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 202 | 287 | 274 | 561 | 71 | 358 | 44 | 9 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 341 | 318 | 72 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 75 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 226 | 273 | 321 | 594 | 94 | 268 | 22 | 4 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 308 | 270 | 54 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 76 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 292 | 289 | 581 | 89 | 251 | 25 | 7 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 254 | 241 | 56 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 54 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 232 | 265 | 332 | 597 | 100 | 280 | 21 | 4 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 398 | 375 | 70 | 17 | 0 | 11 | 15 | 116 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 187 | 227 | 320 | 547 | 133 | 233 | 29 | 4 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 308 | 270 | 54 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 76 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 292 | 289 | 581 | 89 | 251 | 25 | 7 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 254 | 241 | 56 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 54 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 232 | 265 | 332 | 597 | 100 | 280 | 21 | 4 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 398 | 375 | 70 | 17 | 0 | 11 | 15 | 116 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 187 | 227 | 320 | 547 | 133 | 233 | 29 | 4 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | PHI | 2% | 380 | 355 | 70 | 15 | 1 | 9 | 17 | 108 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 195 | 241 | 315 | 556 | 120 | 250 | 28 | 4 | 249 | 54 | -21 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +8 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | PHI | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 197 | 243 | 321 | 564 | 124 | 250 | 33 | 0 | 251 | 54 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | PHI | 27% | 222 | 207 | 40 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 63 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 196 | 243 | 315 | 558 | 119 | 251 | 28 | 5 | 250 | 55 | -12 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +5 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | PHI | 27% | 60 | 56 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 197 | 245 | 321 | 565 | 124 | 251 | 28 | 5 | 253 | 55 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 60 | 56 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 250 | 339 | 589 | 143 | 243 | 28 | 5 | 253 | 56 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 607 | 120 | 22 | 0 | 22 | 32 | 184 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 198 | 251 | 343 | 593 | 145 | 244 | 28 | 5 | 253 | 56 | -35 | +0 | -2 | +12 | +14 | -1.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1772 | 1641 | 337 | 60 | 5 | 35 | 85 | 469 | 33 | 11 | 6 | 205 | 259 | 312 | 571 | 107 | 263 | 26 | 5 | 251 | 56 | -20 | +0 | -1 | +7 | +8 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 602 | 124 | 22 | 2 | 13 | 31 | 172 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 206 | 259 | 314 | 572 | 108 | 264 | 26 | 5 | 251 | 56 | -35 | +1 | -1 | +12 | +14 | -1.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAReading Fightin Phils · 223 PAwOBA .334 → .279 (−55)K% 22.4% → 27.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.42% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.73% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 4.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.24% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 1.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.028 | ×0.988 | 20.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×1.028 | ×0.988 | 4.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×1.028 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.24% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 5.58% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.
Result: wOBA .334 → .279; ISO .203 → .156; BABIP .282 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 175 PAwOBA .221 → .178 (−44)K% 26.3% → 31.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.29% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 2.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.66% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.018 | ×1.018 | 10.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.018 | ×1.018 | 8.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.018 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.28% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 2.34% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .221 → .178; ISO .143 → .106; BABIP .210 → .190. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAReading Fightin Phils · 238 PAwOBA .304 → .262 (−43)K% 18.5% → 22.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.49% | ÷1.016 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷0.982 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 4.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.42% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.67% | ÷0.968 | ×0.970 | ×0.995 | ×0.998 | 20.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.82% | ÷1.004 | ×0.860 | ×0.995 | ×0.998 | 6.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.959 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.35% | ÷1.036 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 2.52% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 94, 2B 101, 3B 92, K 103, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .304 → .262; ISO .143 → .111; BABIP .295 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 16 PAwOBA .293 → .271 (−22)K% 6.2% → 8.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 6.25% | ÷1.002 | ×1.310 | — | — | 8.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.093 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 35.71% | ÷0.966 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 31.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.073 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.045 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 93, 2B 115, 3B 130, K 100, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .293 → .271; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .333 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAReading Fightin Phils · 308 PAwOBA .305 → .262 (−44)K% 19.8% → 24.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.81% | ÷0.974 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.39% | ÷1.013 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 7.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.22% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 3.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.60% | ÷0.997 | ×0.970 | ×1.028 | ×1.012 | 20.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.02% | ÷1.022 | ×0.860 | ×1.028 | ×1.012 | 3.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.50% | ÷0.983 | ×0.950 | ×1.028 | ×1.012 | 0.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.52% | ÷1.137 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 2.44% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 99, 2B 104, 3B 97, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.
Result: wOBA .305 → .262; ISO .119 → .090; BABIP .256 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 188 PAwOBA .265 → .215 (−50)K% 18.6% → 24.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.62% | ÷0.993 | ×1.310 | — | — | 24.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.98% | ÷0.973 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 4.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.06% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 0.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.96% | ÷1.006 | ×0.870 | ×1.019 | ×0.998 | 20.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.74% | ÷1.034 | ×0.780 | ×1.019 | ×0.998 | 0.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.48% | ÷1.071 | ×0.850 | ×1.019 | ×0.998 | 1.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.22% | ÷0.858 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 2.27% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 101, 2B 107, 3B 114, K 99, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .265 → .215; ISO .082 → .075; BABIP .256 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AClearwater Threshers · 100 PAwOBA .399 → .328 (−70)K% 13.0% → 17.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.00% | ÷1.020 | ×1.360 | — | — | 17.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.00% | ÷0.972 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 1.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.83% | ÷0.965 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 24.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.20% | ÷1.002 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 9.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.44% | ÷1.056 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 1.98% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 0.97% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 93, 2B 100, 3B 111, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .399 → .328; ISO .179 → .139; BABIP .415 → .354. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AClearwater Threshers · 94 PAwOBA .329 → .252 (−76)K% 31.9% → 43.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.91% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 43.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | — | 8.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.13% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 35.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | — | 34.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | — | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | — | 4.71% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .329 → .252; ISO .111 → .077; BABIP .375 → .358. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .