Branden Boissiere
OF Harrisburg Senators| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | A+WSH | 189 | .209/.301/.294 | 3 | 0 | 22 | — | .158/.226/.216 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA/A+WSH | 515 | .271/.344/.426 | 11 | 1 | 63 | — | .212/.267/.332 |
| 2026 | 26 | AA/A/ROKWSH | 327 | .288/.363/.514 | 13 | 4 | 89 | — | .234/.289/.405 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 27 | MLBWSH | 3 | .207/.262/.338 | 0 | 0 | 67 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 28 | MLBWSH | 44 | .208/.263/.337 | 1 | 0 | 68 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 98 | 85 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 296 | 294 | 590 | 94 | 271 | 26 | 10 | 275 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 435 | 361 | 89 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 66 | 109 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 247 | 369 | 338 | 707 | 91 | 335 | 25 | 15 | 327 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 147 | 129 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 240 | 319 | 318 | 637 | 78 | 300 | 21 | 8 | 289 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 212 | 176 | 40 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 31 | 41 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 227 | 346 | 375 | 721 | 148 | 261 | 19 | 15 | 323 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 189 | 163 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 48 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 301 | 294 | 596 | 86 | 270 | 25 | 10 | 273 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 214 | 189 | 55 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 49 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 291 | 371 | 450 | 821 | 159 | 372 | 23 | 10 | 365 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 301 | 269 | 69 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 80 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 257 | 324 | 409 | 733 | 152 | 332 | 27 | 8 | 323 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 287 | 253 | 71 | 22 | 1 | 10 | 28 | 82 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 281 | 355 | 494 | 849 | 213 | 367 | 29 | 10 | 367 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 17 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 312 | 353 | 688 | 1.040 | 375 | 300 | 24 | 6 | 446 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | ROK | FCL Nationals | — | 23 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 368 | 478 | 632 | 1.110 | 263 | 462 | 22 | 17 | 481 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 98 | 90 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 35 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 235 | 244 | 479 | 78 | 255 | 36 | 6 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 435 | 380 | 76 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 47 | 154 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 200 | 295 | 266 | 560 | 66 | 312 | 35 | 11 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 147 | 134 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 42 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 194 | 250 | 261 | 511 | 67 | 251 | 29 | 5 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 212 | 188 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 57 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 181 | 260 | 293 | 552 | 112 | 221 | 27 | 9 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 189 | 171 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 65 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 158 | 226 | 216 | 442 | 58 | 220 | 34 | 6 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 214 | 195 | 49 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 251 | 315 | 385 | 699 | 133 | 341 | 28 | 7 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 301 | 278 | 51 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 109 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 183 | 233 | 295 | 528 | 112 | 262 | 36 | 5 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 287 | 262 | 62 | 18 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 100 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 237 | 291 | 405 | 695 | 168 | 329 | 35 | 7 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 17 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 235 | 375 | 610 | 188 | 253 | 29 | 6 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | ROK MLE | FCL Nationals | — | 23 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 238 | 304 | 429 | 733 | 190 | 334 | 30 | 9 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 98 | 90 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 35 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 235 | 244 | 479 | 78 | 259 | 36 | 6 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A RAW | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 98 | 85 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 296 | 294 | 590 | 94 | 271 | 26 | 10 | 275 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 435 | 380 | 76 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 47 | 154 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 200 | 295 | 266 | 560 | 66 | 322 | 35 | 11 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A RAW | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 435 | 361 | 89 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 66 | 109 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 247 | 369 | 338 | 707 | 91 | 335 | 25 | 15 | 327 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 359 | 322 | 60 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 99 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 186 | 256 | 280 | 535 | 93 | 244 | 28 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 359 | 305 | 71 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 43 | 72 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 233 | 335 | 351 | 686 | 118 | 278 | 20 | 12 | 309 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 189 | 171 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 65 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 158 | 226 | 216 | 442 | 58 | 234 | 34 | 6 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ RAW | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 189 | 163 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 48 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 301 | 294 | 596 | 86 | 270 | 25 | 10 | 273 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 515 | 473 | 100 | 24 | 3 | 9 | 29 | 169 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 211 | 267 | 332 | 599 | 121 | 302 | 33 | 6 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 515 | 458 | 124 | 30 | 4 | 11 | 44 | 129 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 271 | 344 | 426 | 770 | 155 | 349 | 25 | 9 | 340 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 327 | 299 | 71 | 19 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 113 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 237 | 292 | 408 | 700 | 171 | 337 | 35 | 7 | 299 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 327 | 288 | 83 | 24 | 1 | 13 | 33 | 91 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 288 | 363 | 514 | 877 | 226 | 370 | 28 | 10 | 379 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 98 | 90 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 35 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 235 | 244 | 479 | 78 | 255 | 36 | 6 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 435 | 381 | 76 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 47 | 154 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 199 | 295 | 265 | 560 | 66 | 312 | 35 | 11 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 359 | 326 | 60 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 99 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 184 | 256 | 276 | 532 | 92 | 233 | 28 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 189 | 172 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 65 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 226 | 215 | 441 | 58 | 220 | 34 | 6 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 515 | 474 | 100 | 24 | 3 | 9 | 29 | 169 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 211 | 267 | 331 | 598 | 120 | 295 | 33 | 6 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 327 | 301 | 71 | 19 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 113 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 236 | 292 | 405 | 697 | 169 | 325 | 35 | 7 | 299 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 189 | 172 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 65 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 226 | 215 | 441 | 58 | 220 | 34 | 6 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 515 | 474 | 100 | 24 | 3 | 9 | 29 | 169 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 211 | 267 | 331 | 598 | 120 | 295 | 33 | 6 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 327 | 301 | 71 | 19 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 113 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 236 | 292 | 405 | 697 | 169 | 325 | 35 | 7 | 299 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | WSH | 2% | 377 | 348 | 72 | 17 | 2 | 8 | 23 | 121 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 207 | 262 | 338 | 600 | 131 | 287 | 32 | 6 | 268 | 67 | -15 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +8 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | WSH | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 262 | 338 | 600 | 130 | 287 | 33 | 0 | 268 | 67 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | WSH | 27% | 164 | 152 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 52 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 263 | 337 | 600 | 130 | 287 | 32 | 6 | 268 | 68 | -6 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +4 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | WSH | 27% | 44 | 41 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 263 | 337 | 600 | 129 | 287 | 32 | 7 | 268 | 68 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 44 | 41 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 195 | 250 | 317 | 567 | 122 | 269 | 32 | 7 | 268 | 59 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 606 | 119 | 30 | 0 | 15 | 44 | 207 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 251 | 320 | 571 | 124 | 271 | 32 | 7 | 268 | 59 | -25 | +0 | -3 | -4 | +14 | -1.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2242 | 2031 | 411 | 90 | 9 | 37 | 160 | 737 | 24 | 13 | 1 | 202 | 269 | 310 | 579 | 108 | 291 | 33 | 7 | 256 | 59 | -12 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +7 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 120 | 26 | 3 | 11 | 46 | 214 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 204 | 269 | 314 | 584 | 110 | 293 | 33 | 7 | 256 | 59 | -25 | +1 | -1 | -4 | +14 | -1.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAHarrisburg Senators · 287 PAwOBA .362 → .297 (−65)K% 28.6% → 34.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 6.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.35% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.987 | ×0.988 | 21.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.87% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.987 | ×0.988 | 10.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.58% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×0.987 | ×0.988 | 0.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 4.51% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .362 → .297; ISO .213 → .168; BABIP .367 → .329. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKFCL Nationals · 23 PAwOBA .468 → .315 (−153)K% 21.7% → 31.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.74% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 31.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.39% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 10.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 22.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 9.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 5.24% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .468 → .315; ISO .263 → .180; BABIP .462 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AFredericksburg Nationals · 17 PAwOBA .432 → .316 (−116)K% 23.5% → 32.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.53% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 32.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.960 | 3.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.960 | 22.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.960 | 12.80% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.0 → −4.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .432 → .316; ISO .375 → .262; BABIP .300 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 301 PAwOBA .319 → .231 (−88)K% 26.6% → 36.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.58% | ÷0.960 | ×1.310 | — | — | 36.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.64% | ÷0.986 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 4.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.33% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 1.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.28% | ÷1.004 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 18.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.47% | ÷0.948 | ×0.780 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 6.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.06% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 0.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.70% | ÷0.967 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 3.29% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 101, 2B 90, 3B 100, K 92, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .319 → .231; ISO .152 → .117; BABIP .332 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAHarrisburg Senators · 214 PAwOBA .357 → .304 (−53)K% 22.9% → 28.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.90% | ÷0.997 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.81% | ÷0.967 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 7.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.40% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.009 | ×0.970 | ×0.956 | ×0.998 | 22.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.887 | ×0.860 | ×0.956 | ×0.998 | 9.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.43% | ÷0.913 | ×0.950 | ×0.956 | ×0.998 | 1.42% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.86% | ÷0.963 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 2.31% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 102, 2B 77, 3B 83, K 99, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.956.
Result: wOBA .357 → .304; ISO .159 → .137; BABIP .372 → .341. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 189 PAwOBA .271 → .201 (−70)K% 25.4% → 34.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.40% | ÷0.974 | ×1.310 | — | — | 34.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.52% | ÷1.015 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.988 | 5.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.12% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.988 | 1.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.61% | ÷1.008 | ×0.870 | ×0.967 | ×0.988 | 18.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷0.942 | ×0.780 | ×0.967 | ×0.988 | 3.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.984 | ×0.850 | ×0.967 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.61% | ÷1.016 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 2.23% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 102, 2B 88, 3B 97, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.
Result: wOBA .271 → .201; ISO .086 → .069; BABIP .270 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AFredericksburg Nationals · 212 PAwOBA .322 → .247 (−74)K% 19.3% → 26.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.34% | ÷0.978 | ×1.360 | — | — | 26.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.62% | ÷1.126 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 8.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.47% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.52% | ÷1.016 | ×0.920 | ×0.986 | ×0.990 | 16.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.065 | ×0.830 | ×0.986 | ×0.990 | 5.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.74% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.986 | ×0.990 | 0.57% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.70% | ÷0.917 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 3.20% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 103, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 96, BB 125 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .322 → .247; ISO .148 → .122; BABIP .261 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 147 PAwOBA .288 → .223 (−64)K% 21.1% → 28.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.09% | ÷0.973 | ×1.310 | — | — | 28.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.16% | ÷1.005 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 4.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.04% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 1.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.47% | ÷0.981 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 19.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.894 | ×0.780 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 5.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.913 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.02% | ÷0.913 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 0.98% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 96, 2B 79, 3B 83, K 95, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .288 → .223; ISO .078 → .066; BABIP .300 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).