Bryce Collins — OGILVIE

Bryce Collins P Asheville Tourists

Age 27 RHP 6'0" / 200 lbs A+

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 12 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 127

ERA5.78

FIP5.78

K%18.6%

BB%16.8%

K-BB%1.8%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	45	190	65	22	3	0%	1.3	26.0%	13.4%	12.6%	2.4%	2.40	3.95	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	45	190	65	22	3	0%	1.3	26.0%	13.4%	12.6%	2.4%	2.40	3.95	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	45	190	65	22	3	0%	1.3	34.2%	11.6%	22.6%	1.6%	2.40	2.54	—
2026	26	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	13	0	17	82	12	16	4	0%	1.3	11.3%	22.4%	-11.2%	6.1%	9.00	8.34	—
2026	26	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	13	0	17	82	12	16	4	0%	1.3	11.3%	22.4%	-11.2%	6.1%	9.00	8.34	—
2026	26	A+ RAW	Asheville Tourists	13	0	17	82	12	16	4	0%	1.3	14.6%	19.5%	-4.9%	4.9%	9.00	7.57	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	HOU	11	0	12	51	9	8	2	0%	1.1	18.6%	16.8%	1.8%	3.2%	5.78	5.78	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	HOU	19	0	20	84	16	14	3	0%	1.1	18.9%	16.2%	2.8%	3.3%	5.69	5.72	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	HOU	7	0	7	30	6	5	1	0%	1.0	18.9%	16.2%	2.8%	3.3%	5.69	5.72	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	6	5	1	0%	1.0	18.9%	16.2%	2.8%	3.3%	5.69	5.34	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	164	136	27	0%	1.1	18.9%	16.2%	2.8%	3.3%	5.69	5.34	-1.8
Career	—	MLE		47	0	62	272	59	44	10	0%	1.3	21.5%	16.1%	5.4%	3.5%	4.21	5.27	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		152	0	200	877	189	142	31	0%	1.3	21.5%	16.1%	5.4%	3.5%	4.21	5.27	-2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryce Collins (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.78	18.6%	16.8%	3.2%	—	5.72	18.9%	2.8%	20	-0.06	—	—	—
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	84
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	83
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	83
Stevie Branche R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	27	SU	5.67	19.3%	17.6%	3.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	162	83
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	82
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	81
Vic Black R 2015 · 5.28 FIP	27	SU	5.28	17.5%	19.3%	2.2%	.358	6.03	9.0%	-11.6%	29	+0.75	3.16	107	81
Luis García R 2014 · 5.50 FIP	27	SU	5.50	17.4%	18.8%	2.7%	.286	3.26	20.5%	11.4%	208	-2.24	2.33	662	81
Mitchell Stumpo R 2023 · 6.35 FIP	27	SU	6.35	20.6%	20.8%	4.3%	.368	4.77	22.6%	15.5%	34	-1.58	3.97	158	80
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	80
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	80
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	79
Nelson Gonzalez R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	27	SU	5.00	15.3%	13.7%	2.6%	.239	5.79	17.4%	6.7%	96	+0.79	3.42	258	79
Connor Law R 2021 · 6.15 FIP	27	SU	6.15	16.2%	17.2%	4.1%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	110	79
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	79
Brian Glowicki R 2022 · 5.39 FIP	27	SU	5.39	18.2%	15.9%	3.3%	.229	—	—	—	—	—	2.31	189	78
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	78
Harrison Cooney R 2018 · 6.60 FIP	26	SU	6.60	18.8%	21.9%	4.2%	.237	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	186	78
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	78
Kevin Gryboski R 2002 · 5.02 FIP	28	SU	5.02	13.9%	13.4%	2.5%	.263	3.83	12.0%	2.9%	126	-1.19	3.67	178	78