Mat Nelson

C Chattanooga Lookouts
Age 28 R/R 5'11" / 209 lbs AA HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036
MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202425AACIN300.198/.331/.2874045—.168/.280/.230
202526AACIN99.088/.255/.13810-12—.081/.194/.128
2027PROJ2% MLB28MLBCIN3.201/.280/.31900680.0
2028PROJ23% MLB29MLBCIN44.201/.279/.3171068-0.0
Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 AA
BB%95
Chase%61
K%22
Z-Con%21
Whiff%20
ISO11
CompsStevie Berman (age 28) · Ryan Jorgensen (age 28) · Cody Roberts (age 28)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†68
AVG/OBP/SLG.201 / .280 / .319
PA3
HR0
K%33
BB%8
BABIP273
ISO132
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -5.1 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-5BATRUN: +0.0 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +2.4 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +2.9 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.10+0.1WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
0.10.02728
Tools · Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202122 A+Dayton Dragons — 2924 5210 4151 01 208345375720 167556 5214 328 9 — — — — — —
202223 A+Dayton Dragons — 321283 621328 2410811 10 219305364669 145320 347 301 37 — — — — — —
202324 AAChattanooga Lookouts — 4937 11103 1082 00 2974695681.037 270308 1620 455 137 — — — — — —
202324 A+Dayton Dragons — 364313 699018 391019 60 220324422746 201260 2811 332 56 — — — — — —
202425 AAChattanooga Lookouts — 300247 491004 306819 00 198331287619 89253 2310 292 45 — — — — — —
202526 AAChattanooga Lookouts — 9980 7101 16302 00 87255138393 50120 3016 207 -12 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202122 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 2925 2100 3211 01 80207120327 40480 7210 181 9 — — — — — —
202223 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 321289 49826 1813111 10 170245273519 104264 416 223 37 — — — — — —
202324 AA MLEChattanooga Lookouts — 4941 11103 6102 00 268388512900 244283 2012 370 137 — — — — — —
202324 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 364325 566014 271319 60 172255320575 148225 367 251 56 — — — — — —
202425 AA MLEChattanooga Lookouts — 300256 43703 218219 00 168280230511 62221 277 235 45 — — — — — —
202526 AA MLEChattanooga Lookouts — 9986 7101 10362 00 81194128322 47105 3610 150 -12 — — — — — —
202122 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 2925 2100 3211 01 80207120327 40500 7210 181 9 — — — — — —
202122 A+ RAWDayton Dragons — 2924 5210 4151 01 208345375720 167556 5214 328 9 — — — — — —
202223 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 321289 49826 1813111 10 170245273519 104279 416 223 37 — — — — — —
202223 A+ RAWDayton Dragons — 321283 621328 2410811 10 219305364669 145320 347 301 37 — — — — — —
202324 A+ MLE2 teams — 413366 677017 3314211 60 183271342612 158239 348 265 66 — — — — — —
202324 A+ RAW2 teams — 413350 8010021 4910911 60 229341437779 209266 2612 347 66 — — — — — —
202425 AA MLEChattanooga Lookouts — 300256 43703 218219 00 168280230511 62230 277 235 45 — — — — — —
202425 AA RAWChattanooga Lookouts — 300247 491004 306819 00 198331287619 89253 2310 292 45 — — — — — —
202526 AA MLEChattanooga Lookouts — 9986 7101 10362 00 81194128322 47120 3610 150 -12 — — — — — —
202526 AA RAWChattanooga Lookouts — 9980 7101 16302 00 87255138393 50120 3016 207 -12 — — — — — —
202122 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 2925 2100 3211 01 80207120327 40480 7210 181 9 — — — — — —
202223 A+ MLEDayton Dragons — 321289 49826 1813111 10 170245273519 104264 416 223 37 — — — — — —
202324 A+ MLE2 teams — 413366 677017 3314211 60 183271342612 158232 348 265 66 — — — — — —
202425 AA MLEChattanooga Lookouts — 300257 43703 218219 00 167280230510 62221 277 235 45 — — — — — —
202526 AA MLEChattanooga Lookouts — 9987 7101 10362 00 80194126320 46105 3610 150 -12 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202425 AA MLEChattanooga Lookouts — 300257 43703 218219 00 167280230510 62221 277 235 45 — — — — — —
202526 AA MLEChattanooga Lookouts — 9987 7101 10362 00 80194126320 46105 3610 150 -12 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202728 MLB MLECIN 2% 200178 36714 16604 10 199279312591 113272 308 269 68 -8 +0 +0 +4 +4 0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202728 MLB CTXCIN 2% 33 0000 010 00 201280319599 118273 330 272 68 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202829 MLB MLECIN 23% 194173 35714 15584 00 199278311589 112271 308 268 68 -7 +0 -1 +3 +4 -0.1
202829 MLB CTXCIN 23% 4440 7101 3131 00 201279317597 116272 307 271 68 -2 +0 -0 +1 +1 -0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 4440 7101 3131 00 175250275525 100231 307 271 50 -2 +0 -0 +1 +1 -0.0
/ 162G— A+C — 650591 10415015 4419215 00 176251277528 102232 307 271 50 -25 +0 -5 +12 +14 -0.4
Career— MLE — 14921316 22836434 11151151 81 173264284548 111248 347 242 50 -13 +0 -1 +6 +7 -0.1
/ 162G— MLE — 650573 10016215 4822322 30 175264288552 113251 347 242 50 -25 +0 -3 +12 +14 -0.1