Richie Palacios

2B Tampa Bay Rays

Age 30 L/R 5'8" / 185 lbs MLB HR -6%H +4% Svc 2.907S2 · Ctrl thru 2030

Overview

MLB40-MANArb-1FA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	27	MLBTB	316	.223/.346/.318	5	19	92	0.9
2025	28	MLBTB	48	.333/.404/.452	1	4	135	0.1
2026	29	MLBTB	399	.235/.332/.374	10	17	101	1.0
2027PROJ	30	MLBTB	325	.238/.334/.366	7	13	100	0.8
2028PROJ82% MLB	31	MLBTB	254	.233/.328/.354	5	8	96	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.0 · Next 2 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.907First FA2031Super-2

2027Arb-1$0.7M2028Arb-2$0.8M2029Ext$2M2030Ext$3M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Whiff%90

Chase%90

xwOBA58

Speed33

Bat Spd23

Barrel%17

Form.254/.343/.421 ▲▲ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .236/.330/.367

CompsEnder Inciarte (age 30) · Ezequiel Carrera (age 30) · Tony Kemp (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†100

AVG/OBP/SLG.238 / .334 / .366

PA325

HR7

SB13

K%19

BB%11

BABIP277

ISO131

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT55

Whiff%

904.9%

xAVG

470.249

POWER40

Barrel%

173.9

Avg EV

1586.4

Bat Spd

2368.5

EYE60

Chase%

9012.4%

SPEED45

Sprint

3326.7

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%16%▲▲13% over 77 PA (60d) · proj 19%

BB%11%·10% over 77 PA (60d) · proj 11%

ISO.167▲▲.254 over 67 AB (60d) · proj .131

HR/BB5.2%▲▲8.8% over 57 BBE (60d) · proj 3.3%

BABIP.270·.212 over 52 BIP (60d) · proj .274

SLASH.254/.343/.421▲▲proj .236/.330/.367

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 390 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

359

—

wRC+

106

▶R

wOBA

309

324

▶R

ISO

036

111

▶▶R

BABIP

421

284

◀◀L

29.0%

19.5%

▶▶R

BB%

9.7%

13.9%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 2.907 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$0.7M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Arb-2	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	21	A	Lake County Captains	—	82	80	24	2	1	2	2	13	0	3	0	300	317	425	742	125	338	16	2	328	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	ROK	AZL Indians 1	—	22	16	7	1	0	2	6	2	0	2	0	438	591	875	1.466	438	417	9	27	602	195	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	145	113	33	9	1	1	25	28	4	10	0	292	437	416	853	124	376	19	17	383	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	283	244	73	24	3	6	33	42	4	10	3	299	391	496	887	197	338	15	12	390	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	93	78	21	8	1	3	13	15	2	4	1	269	387	513	900	244	300	16	14	396	154	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	—	123	112	26	6	0	0	9	20	1	2	0	232	295	286	581	54	280	16	7	267	62	-6	+0	-2	-4	+3	-0.9
2022	25	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	206	179	50	10	5	4	24	43	2	12	2	279	371	458	829	179	348	21	12	367	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	INTL	Indios de Mayaguez	—	91	69	15	2	0	1	16	15	4	4	2	217	393	290	683	72	264	16	18	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	102	93	24	6	0	6	6	11	1	2	0	258	310	516	826	258	234	11	6	353	130	+4	+0	-2	-6	+2	-0.2
2023	26	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	464	374	94	23	0	8	73	61	8	9	6	251	385	377	762	126	276	13	16	345	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	316	264	59	8	1	5	45	67	5	19	1	223	346	318	664	95	280	21	14	310	92	-3	+3	-0	+1	+7	0.9
2024	27	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	21	18	4	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	222	333	222	556		235	5	14	272	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	48	42	14	2	0	1	5	9	0	4	0	333	404	452	857	119	394	19	10	377	135	+2	+1	-4	+0	+1	0.1
2025	28	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	82	76	12	2	0	2	6	20	0	3	1	158	220	263	483	105	185	24	7	221	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	399	345	81	14	2	10	46	68	4	17	7	235	332	374	706	139	264	17	12	318	101	+0	+1	-1	+1	+9	1.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	988	856	204	36	3	22	111	175	11	44	8	238	333	364	697	126	274	18	11	316	100	-0	+6	-8	-7	+21	1.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	21	A MLE	Lake County Captains	—	82	81	22	2	1	1	1	18	0	3	0	272	280	358	639	86	327	22	1	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	ROK MLE	AZL Indians 1	—	22	18	7	1	0	2	4	3	0	2	0	389	500	778	1.278	389	316	14	18	456	195	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	145	120	36	9	1	1	18	33	4	10	0	300	408	417	825	117	388	23	12	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	—	283	253	61	18	2	5	24	52	4	10	3	241	317	387	704	146	281	18	8	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	—	123	113	26	6	0	0	8	20	1	2	0	230	287	283	570	53	280	16	7	260	62	-6	+0	-2	-4	+3	-0.9
2022	25	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	206	185	51	9	6	3	18	50	2	12	2	276	346	438	784	162	354	24	9	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	102	93	24	6	0	6	6	11	1	2	0	258	310	516	826	258	234	11	6	360	130	+4	+0	-2	-6	+2	-0.2
2023	26	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	464	396	90	22	0	6	51	74	8	9	6	227	327	328	656	101	253	16	11	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	316	267	58	8	1	5	43	67	5	19	1	217	337	311	647	94	280	21	14	305	92	-3	+3	-0	+1	+7	0.9
2024	27	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	21	19	4	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	211	286	211	496		223	5	10	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	48	42	14	2	0	1	5	9	0	4	0	333	404	452	857	119	394	19	10	368	135	+2	+1	-4	+0	+1	0.1
2025	28	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	82	78	10	2	0	1	4	23	0	3	1	128	171	192	363	64	167	28	5	163	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	399	345	80	14	2	10	46	68	4	17	7	232	329	371	700	139	264	17	12	317	101	+0	+1	-1	+1	+9	1.0
2018	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	104	99	27	2	1	3	5	21	0	5	0	273	308	404	712	131	320	20	5	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	104	96	31	3	1	4	8	15	0	5	0	323	375	500	875	177	351	14	8	386	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	521	455	117	33	4	7	51	105	10	24	4	257	345	393	738	136	318	20	10	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA RAW	3 teams	—	521	435	127	41	5	10	71	85	10	24	4	292	403	478	881	186	341	16	14	389	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	420	376	98	19	7	4	33	89	7	18	4	261	332	380	712	120	331	21	8	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	420	360	91	18	5	5	49	78	7	18	4	253	353	372	726	119	309	19	12	328	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	566	489	115	28	0	13	57	85	9	11	6	235	326	372	698	137	256	15	10	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	566	467	118	29	0	14	79	72	9	11	6	253	371	405	776	152	267	13	14	346	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	337	286	62	8	1	5	45	68	5	19	1	217	333	304	638	87	266	20	13	300	90	-4	+3	-0	+1	+7	0.8
2024	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	337	282	63	8	1	5	48	68	5	19	1	223	345	312	657	89	276	20	14	308	90	-4	+3	-0	+1	+7	0.8
2025	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	130	120	24	4	0	2	9	32	0	7	1	200	256	283	539	83	253	25	7	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	130	118	26	4	0	3	11	29	0	7	1	220	287	331	617	110	264	22	8	279	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	399	345	80	14	2	10	46	68	4	17	7	232	329	371	700	139	260	17	12	317	101	+0	+1	-1	+1	+9	1.0
2026	29	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	—	399	345	81	14	2	10	46	68	4	17	7	235	332	374	706	139	264	17	12	318	101	+0	+1	-1	+1	+9	1.0
2018	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	104	98	27	2	1	3	5	21	0	5	0	276	308	408	716	133	325	20	5	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	521	455	117	33	4	7	51	105	10	24	4	257	345	393	738	136	317	20	10	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	420	377	98	19	7	4	33	89	7	18	4	260	332	379	711	119	326	21	8	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	566	495	115	28	0	13	57	85	9	11	6	232	326	368	694	135	250	15	10	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	337	284	62	8	1	5	45	68	5	19	1	218	333	306	640	88	276	20	13	300	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	130	120	24	4	0	2	9	32	0	7	1	200	256	283	539	83	251	25	7	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	399	346	80	14	2	10	46	68	4	17	7	231	329	370	699	139	264	17	12	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	337	284	62	8	1	5	45	68	5	19	1	218	333	306	640	88	276	20	13	300	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	130	120	24	4	0	2	9	32	0	7	1	200	256	283	539	83	251	25	7	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	399	346	80	14	2	10	46	68	4	17	7	231	329	370	699	139	264	17	12	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	30	MLB MLE	TB	100%	325	282	66	12	1	7	37	61	3	13	4	236	332	367	699	131	274	19	11	316	100	+0	+1	-2	+1	+7	0.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	30	MLB CTX	TB	100%	325	282	68	12	2	7	37	61	3	13	4	238	334	366	700	128	277	19	11	317	100	+0	+1	-2	+1	+7	0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	TB	82%	310	269	62	11	1	7	35	59	3	9	3	231	327	355	681	124	270	19	11	309	96	-2	+1	-5	+1	+7	0.2
2028	31	MLB CTX	TB	82%	254	220	51	9	1	5	29	49	3	8	2	233	328	354	682	121	273	19	11	310	96	-1	+1	-4	+1	+6	0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1242	1076	255	45	4	27	140	224	14	52	10	237	332	362	694	125	274	18	11	314	96	-2	+6	-12	-7	+27	1.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	563	134	24	2	14	73	117	7	27	5	238	332	362	695	124	275	18	11	314	96	-1	+3	-6	-3	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	3112	2721	651	131	17	58	318	588	41	123	30	239	328	364	692	125	283	19	10	309	96	-2	+7	-15	-5	+35	2.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	568	136	27	4	12	66	123	9	26	6	239	328	364	693	125	284	19	10	309	96	-1	+3	-6	-2	+14	0.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Logan Forsythelast yr '19 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,502 PA	5.3	3,502	70	42	246	327	370	+5	-11	8.6	9.2
/162	664	13	8	+0.9	-2.2	1.6	pk7: 10
#2Cavan Biggiolast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,937 PA	2.9	1,937	52	33	223	339	373	+5	-8	6.8	6.8
/162	664	18	11	+1.8	-2.8	2.3	pk7: 7
#3Eddie Moore'23-'34 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,838 PA	4.3	2,838	13	52	250*	331*	365*	+5	-21	4.5	5.5
/162	664	3	12	+1.3	-4.9	1.1	pk7: 6
#4Bobby Morgan'50-'58 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,459 PA	3.7	2,459	53	18	225*	327*	368*	+15	-12	5.2	5.3
/162	664	14	5	+4.0	-3.3	1.4	pk7: 5
#5Dick Padden'01-'05 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,693 PA	2.5	1,693	3	68	238*	322*	373*	+6	-4	5.1	5.1
/162	664	1	27	+2.5	-1.6	2.0	pk7: 5
#6Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	2.3	1,519	34	61	234	327	362	+2	-12	4.0	4.0
/162	664	15	27	+0.8	-5.2	1.7	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Richie Palacios (OGILVIE)	30	55	40	45	60	234/330/363	129	274	7	13	19%	11%	100	+0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ender Inciarte 2021 · MLB	30	49→59	43→45	52→60	53	237/308/352	115	270	10	18	16%	9%	88	+0.5	223/285/332	109	272	11	12	21%	8%	75	-0.5	213/268/297	84	264	9	12	22%	7%	58	-0.5
✕Ezequiel Carrera 2017 · MLB	30	52→62	42→45	52→60	48	249/311/353	103	304	10	20	21%	7%	89	+0.5	235/298/344	109	299	11	18	24%	8%	82	+0.0	238/300/337	100	302	11	24	24%	8%	82	+0.0
●Tony Kemp 2021 · MLB	29	49→59	44→45	50→55	56	240/323/364	123	268	11	15	15%	9%	97	+1.1	244/332/364	120	268	11	13	13%	10%	101	+1.4	235/325/345	110	255	10	15	12%	10%	94	+0.7
✕Josh Rojas 2024 · MLB	30	51→53	43→50	54→55	51	248/315/361	114	306	11	19	22%	9%	93	+0.8	220/287/331	111	273	11	13	22%	8%	76	-0.4	204/271/311	108	249	10	9	22%	8%	65	-0.7
✕Luis Landaeta 2006 · AAA	29	53	45	45→50	49	261/312/383	122	281	13	15	13%	6%	97	+1.1	247/296/367	120	280	11	13	15%	6%	87	+0.4	259/292/364	104	290	4	9	12%	4%	81	-0.0
✕Chris Duffy 2010 · MLB	30	47→57	42→45	51→60	49	226/291/336	111	276	9	17	21%	8%	78	-0.3	221/273/333	112	308	9	14	30%	5%	71	-0.8	216/262/319	103	308	7	16	31%	4%	61	-0.9
✕Roger Bernadina 2014 · MLB	30	46→56	45	55→60	46	228/293/350	122	282	12	21	23%	7%	82	+0.0	211/288/327	116	299	11	18	31%	8%	76	-0.4	219/285/332	113	308	11	20	31%	7%	73	-0.4
✕Rafael Ortega 2021 · MLB	30	45→55	49→55	52→55	49	230/292/383	153	269	16	16	21%	8%	90	+0.6	240/316/383	143	289	16	18	22%	10%	99	+1.2	228/314/353	125	275	14	21	21%	11%	91	+0.5
✕Brian Bogusevic 2015 · MLB	31	48→54	45	51→55	48	237/307/366	129	296	12	15	24%	8%	91	+0.7	247/293/372	125	306	14	16	23%	6%	87	+0.4	251/291/374	122	308	15	17	23%	5%	84	+0.1
✕Alejandro De Aza 2014 · MLB	30	55→61	46→50	52→55	48	267/326/405	137	320	13	21	20%	7%	107	+1.8	249/314/389	140	311	12	15	23%	8%	99	+1.2	242/311/378	136	306	11	14	23%	8%	96	+0.7
✕Fred Lewis 2012 · MLB	31	51→59	45→50	48→55	52	248/326/383	135	303	10	15	21%	9%	102	+1.5	245/311/391	146	320	14	19	26%	8%	98	+1.2	249/311/401	152	336	14	25	28%	8%	96	+0.9
✕Nathan Lukes 2024 · MLB	30	56→55	43→45	51→50	46	269/319/386	117	320	10	13	19%	6%	100	+1.3	267/323/392	125	304	13	7	16%	7%	103	+1.5	267/325/389	122	296	14	4	15%	7%	102	+1.0
✕Jace Peterson 2020 · MLB	30	48→57	46→50	56→55	51	234/305/373	138	281	12	19	21%	9%	92	+0.7	237/321/383	146	298	15	17	24%	11%	101	+1.4	222/312/344	122	285	12	20	25%	11%	89	+0.3
●David Murphy 2012 · MLB	30	54→59	48→55	49→50	52	269/326/410	141	297	16	15	16%	8%	108	+1.9	259/320/405	146	282	15	9	14%	8%	105	+1.7	253/316/396	143	274	14	5	13%	8%	100	+1.1
✕Xavier Paul 2014 · MLB	29	52→61	47→50	48→55	48	257/316/400	143	312	14	13	22%	7%	102	+1.5	211/266/337	126	278	15	6	29%	6%	70	-0.9	172/219/274	102	240	13	1	33%	5%	36	-2.0
✕Alex Call 2024 · MLB	29	44→47	46→50	47→50	57	221/317/354	133	252	14	14	18%	11%	93	+0.8	232/329/360	128	277	12	13	19%	11%	99	+1.2	235/338/356	121	285	11	12	20%	12%	102	+0.8
✕Jose Munoz 2009 · AAA	30	51→49	41→45	45→50	54	243/316/346	103	285	8	11	17%	9%	90	+0.6	234/310/344	110	280	8	10	18%	10%	87	+0.4	215/295/308	92	266	7	6	20%	10%	71	-0.4
✕Ryan Langerhans 2010 · MLB	30	47→41	47→50	48→50	51	232/313/378	146	297	14	13	26%	10%	96	+1.0	217/309/366	149	303	16	13	31%	11%	93	+0.8	195/296/338	143	283	16	12	34%	12%	80	-0.1
✕Joshua Palacios 2024 · MLB	29	50→53	49→50	53→55	46	253/307/400	146	292	17	18	20%	6%	99	+1.3	229/295/358	129	283	13	13	23%	7%	85	+0.2	210/285/314	105	268	9	11	24%	8%	71	-0.3
✕Desmond Jennings 2016 · MLB	29	49→59	45→50	50→60	52	241/315/375	133	285	12	17	19%	9%	96	+1.0	212/275/346	134	258	15	10	24%	8%	75	-0.5	185/247/315	131	222	16	7	25%	7%	57	-0.7

Richie Palacios

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps