Drew Ehrhard

1B Portland Sea Dogs

Age 28 R/R 5'9" / 185 lbs AA HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	25	AABOS	78	.265/.359/.456	2	0	82	—	.243/.321/.414
2025	26	AABOS	223	.235/.301/.325	3	4	46	—	.214/.260/.277
2026	27	AABOS	45	.132/.233/.316	2	1	17	—	.128/.209/.308
2027PROJMLE	28	MLBBOS	2	.226/.279/.337	0	0	69	-0.0
2028PROJ23% MLB	29	MLBBOS	27	.225/.278/.334	0	0	68	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Chase%80

Whiff%70

ISO69

K%63

Speed53

BB%35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsFrancisco Rivera (age 28) · Eric Von Schell (age 28) · Ryan Ripken (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.226 / .279 / .337

PA2

HR0

K%50

BB%6

BABIP290

ISO77

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	25	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	78	68	18	5	1	2	7	18	3	0	1	265	359	456	815	191	333	23	9	363	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	223	200	47	7	1	3	16	44	3	4	2	235	301	325	626	90	286	20	7	282	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	45	38	5	1	0	2	4	10	1	1	0	132	233	316	548	184	111	22	9	240	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	25	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	78	70	17	4	1	2	5	21	3	0	1	243	321	414	735	171	297	27	6	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	223	206	44	5	1	2	10	55	3	4	2	214	260	277	537	63	271	25	4	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	45	39	5	1	0	2	3	12	1	1	0	128	209	308	517	179	100	27	7	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	78	70	17	4	1	2	5	21	3	0	1	243	321	414	735	171	319	27	6	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	—	78	68	18	5	1	2	7	18	3	0	1	265	359	456	815	191	333	23	9	363	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	223	206	44	5	1	2	10	55	3	4	2	214	260	277	537	63	280	25	4	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	—	223	200	47	7	1	3	16	44	3	4	2	235	301	325	626	90	286	20	7	282	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	45	39	5	1	0	2	3	12	1	1	0	128	209	308	517	179	115	27	7	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	—	45	38	5	1	0	2	4	10	1	1	0	132	233	316	548	184	111	22	9	240	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	78	70	17	4	1	2	5	21	3	0	1	243	321	414	735	171	297	27	6	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	223	208	44	5	1	2	10	55	3	4	2	212	260	274	534	63	271	25	4	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	45	41	5	1	0	2	3	12	1	1	0	122	209	293	502	171	100	27	7	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	25	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	78	70	17	4	1	2	5	21	3	0	1	243	321	414	735	171	297	27	6	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	223	208	44	5	1	2	10	55	3	4	2	212	260	274	534	63	271	25	4	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	45	41	5	1	0	2	3	12	1	1	0	122	209	293	502	171	100	27	7	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	28	MLB MLE	BOS	2%	200	185	40	8	1	3	11	51	2	3	1	219	273	327	600	108	281	26	6	269	69	-7	+0	+0	-4	+4	0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	28	MLB CTX	BOS	2%	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	226	279	337	615	111	290	50	0	276	69	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	BOS	23%	120	111	25	5	1	2	7	30	1	2	1	218	272	325	597	107	280	25	6	268	68	-5	+0	-1	-2	+3	-0.6
2028	29	MLB CTX	BOS	23%	27	25	5	1	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	225	278	334	613	110	289	26	7	275	68	-1	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	27	25	5	1	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	200	259	240	499	40	278	26	7	275	57	-1	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	602	120	24	0	0	48	169	0	0	0	199	258	239	498	40	277	26	7	275	57	-25	+0	-8	-12	+14	-3.1
Career	—	MLE		—	550	504	107	18	3	9	30	139	9	8	4	212	269	313	582	101	273	25	5	252	57	-8	+0	-1	-4	+4	-0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	596	127	21	4	11	35	164	11	9	5	213	270	317	587	104	273	25	5	252	57	-25	+1	-4	-12	+14	-2.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 45 PAwOBA .239 → .194 (−45)K% 22.2% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.22%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	27.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.89%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.978	6.09%
HBP% /PA	2.22%	—	×0.850	—	×0.978	1.85%
Singles /BIP	7.14%	÷1.000	×0.970	—	×0.978	6.78%
Doubles /BIP	3.57%	÷1.000	×0.860	—	×0.978	3.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.950	—	×0.978	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.14%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.978	5.45%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .239 → .194; ISO .184 → .149; BABIP .111 → .100. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 223 PAwOBA .276 → .236 (−39)K% 19.7% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.73%	÷0.978	×1.220	—	—	24.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.17%	÷1.055	×0.700	—	×0.988	4.70%
HBP% /PA	1.35%	—	×0.850	—	×0.988	1.13%
Singles /BIP	23.08%	÷0.962	×0.970	×1.000	×0.988	22.99%
Doubles /BIP	4.49%	÷1.109	×0.860	×1.000	×0.988	3.44%
Triples /BIP	0.64%	÷1.141	×0.950	×1.000	×0.988	0.53%
Home runs /BIP	1.92%	÷1.119	×0.780	—	×0.988	1.32%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 92, 2B 122, 3B 128, K 96, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.

Result: wOBA .276 → .236; ISO .090 → .066; BABIP .286 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 78 PAwOBA .354 → .289 (−64)K% 23.1% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.08%	÷1.033	×1.220	—	—	27.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.97%	÷1.025	×0.700	—	×0.998	6.12%
HBP% /PA	3.85%	—	×0.850	—	×0.998	3.26%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷1.004	×0.970	×1.016	×0.998	19.59%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷1.165	×0.860	×1.016	×0.998	7.48%
Triples /BIP	2.00%	÷1.150	×0.950	×1.016	×0.998	1.67%
Home runs /BIP	4.00%	÷1.018	×0.780	—	×0.998	3.06%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 101, 2B 133, 3B 130, K 107, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.

Result: wOBA .354 → .289; ISO .191 → .145; BABIP .333 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Drew Ehrhard (OGILVIE)	28	45	35	45	35	218/271/324	107	281	1	1	25%	6%	69	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Francisco Rivera 2017 · AAA	28	42	41→40	48→40	44	204/246/300	96	238	9	8	19%	5%	53	-2.1	225/279/316	91	270	8	7	19%	7%	69	-0.9	239/294/315	75	283	8	1	18%	7%	73	-0.2
✕Eric Von Schell 2007 · AA	28	40→41	43→45	41→30	36	204/238/311	107	275	11	4	30%	4%	53	-2.1	211/262/362	151	281	19	4	31%	5%	74	-0.5	196/253/369	173	247	25	0	32%	5%	74	-0.4
✕Ryan Ripken 2021 · AA	28	43→41	41→40	45→40	35	212/242/304	92	288	9	4	30%	3%	51	-2.2	196/241/280	84	304	6	7	35%	5%	46	-2.6	144/183/194	50	234	2	3	38%	4%	1	-1.6
✕Isaac Galloway 2016 · AAA	26	41→42	40→45	51→55	33	201/225/291	91	282	7	15	31%	3%	42	-2.9	215/259/331	116	287	12	24	29%	5%	65	-1.2	205/252/344	139	272	17	25	31%	5%	63	-0.6
✕Webster Rivas 2017 · AA	26	43	37→40	39→40	42	207/247/282	75	258	4	4	21%	5%	49	-2.4	219/263/305	86	287	7	4	25%	5%	60	-1.6	208/282/293	85	269	8	1	24%	9%	64	-0.6
✕Ashley Graeter 2016 · A	26	44	39→40	46→45	38	212/250/296	84	279	6	9	26%	4%	53	-2.1	224/266/319	95	283	9	9	23%	5%	64	-1.3	228/270/326	98	280	10	8	22%	5%	65	-0.7
✕Drew Vettleson 2017 · AA	26	37→47	43→45	49→50	33	188/226/296	107	288	11	10	38%	5%	44	-2.8	197/238/304	107	313	11	13	39%	5%	51	-2.3	143/165/221	78	231	11	21	43%	2%	1	-1.0
✕Preston Palmeiro 2021 · AA	26	41→47	41→45	45→40	39	205/247/300	95	274	9	4	28%	5%	53	-2.1	214/263/327	113	273	11	5	25%	6%	65	-1.2	206/260/318	111	260	10	3	24%	6%	60	-0.9
✕Brian Navarreto 2021 · AA	26	40	43→45	46→30	40	201/240/307	106	239	11	5	22%	4%	53	-2.1	206/253/330	124	254	15	5	25%	5%	63	-1.4	197/246/311	114	243	14	1	25%	5%	53	-0.7
✕Jonathan Schwind 2016 · AA	26	40	38→30	48→50	38	193/242/271	78	281	5	11	32%	5%	45	-2.7	214/273/321	107	291	9	9	28%	7%	68	-1.0	205/273/288	83	272	7	5	26%	8%	58	-0.6
✕K.C. Hobson 2017 · AA	26	38→45	41→45	47→40	42	192/236/286	94	239	10	3	24%	5%	46	-2.6	209/257/349	140	287	18	6	33%	6%	69	-0.9	202/242/361	159	253	25	2	32%	5%	65	-0.4
●Trayce Thompson 2019 · MLB	28	31→41	45→60	46→50	38	172/222/291	119	241	13	9	34%	6%	42	-2.9	187/246/356	169	274	23	10	39%	7%	67	-1.1	203/291/407	204	286	27	7	37%	10%	95	+0.6
✕Robbie Garvey 2016 · A	27	42→50	38→40	54→55	39	201/246/278	77	275	5	19	28%	5%	47	-2.5	213/264/291	78	287	4	14	26%	6%	57	-1.8	217/270/284	67	286	2	15	23%	7%	55	-0.9
✕Joe Maloney 2016 · A	26	38→42	44→45	46→45	32	191/238/308	117	299	12	6	39%	4%	53	-2.1	204/259/301	97	356	7	8	42%	6%	58	-1.7	190/245/283	93	341	6	6	43%	5%	47	-1.9
✕Drew Hedman 2012 · A	26	41	39→40	45	38	198/254/283	85	289	7	7	32%	6%	52	-2.2	196/264/311	115	285	11	10	33%	7%	63	-1.4	156/236/285	129	221	14	12	35%	8%	47	-1.3
✕CJ Alexander 2022 · AA	26	33→43	46→55	56→50	35	177/224/310	133	263	14	16	38%	6%	47	-2.5	209/250/375	166	269	21	12	31%	5%	73	-0.6	212/254/384	173	261	23	9	29%	5%	73	-0.4
✕Juan Ugas 2010 · A	30	37	34→30	51→45	48	175/258/225	50	239	2	7	26%	9%	42	-2.9	168/262/218	50	228	2	7	24%	10%	42	-2.9	129/257/152	23	168	0	9	20%	12%	27	-1.5
✕Peter O'Brien 2018 · MLB	28	31→41	50→65	46→30	32	173/220/319	145	266	18	3	42%	5%	49	-2.4	181/246/352	171	275	24	4	42%	8%	66	-1.1	167/239/351	183	234	28	1	41%	8%	63	-1.0
✕Baltazar Valdez 2009 · AAA	26	44	39→30	48→30	42	212/256/306	94	271	6	6	24%	5%	57	-1.8	233/276/338	105	295	9	5	23%	5%	73	-0.6	251/290/349	99	311	8	0	21%	5%	78	-0.1
✕Rico Noel 2017 · AAA	28	43→53	36→30	59→65	41	203/261/266	63	285	4	37	29%	6%	51	-2.3	203/249/298	95	295	9	23	33%	5%	53	-2.1	185/220/270	85	268	9	29	33%	3%	33	-0.9