Kai-Wei Teng
P
Houston Astros
+0.6
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 241 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.9 · 2026
ERA5.47
FIP4.21
xFIP3.47
SIERA3.33
K%24.8%
BB%11.3%
K-BB%13.6%
IP87
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2026
K†5555
FB Velo
p5795.0
Whiff%
p3022.5%
K%
p7226.2%
xwOBA vs
p900.269
SL+4.4 (37%)
FB+2.0 (44%)
SI (16%)
CU (11%)
CH-0.7 (8%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | GCL Twins | 10 | 9 | 43 | 179 | 47 | 15 | 0 | 17.9% | 10.5% | 0.0% | 3.59 | 2.92 | +1.0 |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 14 | 13 | 80 | 320 | 88 | 21 | 1 | 20.4% | 7.7% | 0.4% | 1.58 | 2.57 | +2.3 |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 21 | 21 | 96 | 416 | 142 | 53 | 11 | 26.3% | 14.7% | 3.2% | 4.33 | 4.48 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 28 | 28 | 136 | 621 | 169 | 85 | 14 | 22.0% | 15.1% | 2.9% | 5.22 | 4.73 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 29 | 28 | 126 | 550 | 164 | 68 | 8 | 25.4% | 13.2% | 1.7% | 4.42 | 3.57 | +2.5 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 29 | 14 | 90 | 431 | 72 | 54 | 18 | 14.7% | 13.1% | 4.2% | 8.80 | 5.85 | -0.6 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 34 | 11 | 87 | 379 | 128 | 39 | 5 | 31.0% | 10.6% | 1.4% | 4.57 | 2.62 | +2.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Houston Astros | 8 | 0 | 12 | 45 | 11 | 4 | 2 | — | — | — | 2.31 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 76 | 319 | 76 | 36 | 8 | 23.8% | 11.3% | 2.6% | 5.51 | 4.32 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 87 | 364 | 87 | 40 | 10 | 23.9% | 11.0% | 2.8% | 5.08 | 3.74 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 16 | 16 | 88 | 371 | 88 | 40 | 10 | 23.7% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 4.84 | 4.37 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 16 | 16 | 86 | 363 | 84 | 38 | 10 | 23.1% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.60 | 4.44 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 15 | 15 | 83 | 352 | 79 | 37 | 10 | 22.5% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.55 | 4.52 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 15 | 15 | 80 | 339 | 74 | 36 | 10 | 21.9% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.62 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 14 | 14 | 77 | 326 | 76 | 32 | 10 | 23.3% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.51 | 4.46 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 74 | 311 | 70 | 31 | 10 | 22.6% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.59 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 13 | 70 | 296 | 65 | 30 | 10 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.66 | 4.73 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 66 | 279 | 59 | 29 | 9 | 21.2% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 4.79 | 4.88 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 53 | 28 | 9 | 20.4% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 4.94 | 5.04 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 173 | 124 | 669 | 2941 | 675 | 371 | 68 | 22.9% | 12.6% | 2.3% | 4.75 | 4.02 | +9.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 37 | 200 | 879 | 202 | 111 | 20 | 22.9% | 12.6% | 2.3% | 4.75 | 4.02 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kai-Wei Teng (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.32 | 23.8% | 11.3% | 2.6% | — | 4.44 | 23.1% | 12.5% | 257 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.43 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .393 | 4.26 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | -0.17 | 4.26 | 166 | 76 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 75 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.00 | 22.3% | 13.6% | 3.8% | .325 | 4.04 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 91 | -0.96 | 4.04 | 448 | 74 |
| Jonathan Pintaro R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.21 | 24.4% | 13.2% | 2.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 152 | 73 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 73 |
| Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.72 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 175 | 72 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 72 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.72 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.12 | 3.22 | 221 | 72 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2025 · 4.98 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.98 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 157 | 71 |
| Logan Bawcom R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.73 | 16.6% | 9.2% | 1.6% | .251 | 4.86 | 16.0% | 6.7% | 234 | +1.13 | 3.73 | 399 | 71 |
| Adam Quintana R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.17 | 18.6% | 11.7% | 2.1% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.72 | 201 | 71 |
| André Rienzo R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.22 | 15.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .264 | 4.01 | 19.8% | 5.1% | 74 | -0.21 | 3.54 | 200 | 71 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 70 |
| Bud Norris R 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 70 |
| Trent Sellers R 2024 · 4.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.51 | 21.8% | 13.3% | 2.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 178 | 70 |
| Noah Davis R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .368 | 4.33 | 21.5% | 10.4% | 79 | +0.28 | 2.95 | 492 | 70 |
| Cody Sedlock R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.21 | 20.1% | 13.0% | 2.1% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 378 | 70 |
| Casey Coleman R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.31 | 12.6% | 11.4% | 1.5% | .349 | 4.16 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 146 | -0.15 | 2.98 | 306 | 70 |
| Robert Dugger R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.49 | 18.2% | 11.7% | 2.6% | .303 | 5.22 | 18.8% | 6.5% | 265 | +0.73 | 3.82 | 880 | 69 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 195 | 69 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2024
Service 0.419 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.7M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $3M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $8M | $18M | +$9M | ||