Kai-Wei Teng — OGILVIE

Kai-Wei Teng P Houston Astros

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 241 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION88 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114105vR 97

ERA3.97

FIP3.94

K%22.7%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%12.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 94 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3393.3

Whiff%

p5626.3%

p5022.2%

xwOBA vs

p270.339

SL+4.4 (37%)

FB+2.0 (44%)

SI (17%)

CU (9%)

CH-0.7 (10%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	19	ROK MLE	GCL Twins	10	9	43	179	47	15	0	90%	4.3	17.9%	10.5%	7.4%	0.0%	3.59	2.92	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	GCL Twins	10	9	43	179	47	15	0	90%	4.3	26.3%	8.4%	17.9%	0.0%	3.59	1.95	—
2019	20	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	14	13	80	320	88	21	1	93%	5.7	20.4%	7.7%	12.6%	0.4%	1.58	2.57	—
2019	20	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	14	13	80	320	88	21	1	93%	5.7	27.5%	6.6%	20.9%	0.3%	1.58	1.84	—
2021	22	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	21	21	96	416	142	53	11	100%	4.6	26.3%	14.7%	11.6%	3.2%	4.33	4.47	—
2021	22	A+ RAW	Eugene Emeralds	21	21	96	416	142	53	11	100%	4.6	34.1%	12.7%	21.4%	2.6%	4.33	3.29	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	28	28	136	621	169	85	14	100%	4.9	22.0%	15.1%	7.0%	2.9%	5.22	4.74	—
2022	23	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	28	28	136	621	169	85	14	100%	4.9	27.2%	13.7%	13.5%	2.3%	5.22	3.83	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	126	550	164	68	8	97%	4.4	24.5%	11.9%	12.6%	1.7%	4.42	3.48	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	126	550	164	68	8	97%	4.4	24.5%	11.9%	12.6%	1.7%	4.42	3.48	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	28	126	550	164	68	8	97%	4.4	29.8%	12.4%	17.5%	1.5%	4.42	2.94	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	14	90	431	72	54	18	48%	3.1	14.0%	11.5%	2.4%	4.2%	8.80	5.69	-1.2
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	14	90	431	72	54	18	48%	3.1	14.0%	11.5%	2.4%	4.2%	8.80	5.69	-1.2
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	14	90	431	72	54	18	48%	3.1	16.7%	12.5%	4.2%	4.2%	8.80	5.90	-1.4
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	11	87	379	128	39	5	32%	2.5	29.8%	9.7%	20.1%	1.5%	4.57	2.64	+2.0
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	11	87	379	128	39	5	32%	2.5	29.8%	9.7%	20.1%	1.5%	4.57	2.64	+2.0
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	11	87	379	128	39	5	32%	2.5	33.8%	10.3%	23.5%	1.3%	4.57	2.25	+2.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			42	17	114	523	119	58	14	40%	2.7	22.8%	11.1%	11.7%	2.7%	5.67	4.13	+0.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	40	12	88	382	94	37	12	30%	2.2	22.2%	10.0%	12.2%	3.1%	4.40	4.21	+0.4
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	40	12	88	382	94	37	12	30%	2.2	22.2%	10.0%	12.2%	3.1%	4.40	4.21	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	ROK RAW	HOU	2	2	3	11	3	1	0	100%	1.5	27.3%	9.1%	18.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.95	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	HOU	8	0	11	42	18	3	2	0%	1.4	42.9%	7.1%	35.7%	4.8%	3.18	3.00	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	HOU	30	10	74	329	73	33	10	33%	2.5	22.2%	10.0%	12.2%	3.0%	4.76	4.17	+0.3
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	HOU	30	10	74	329	73	33	10	33%	2.5	22.2%	10.0%	12.2%	3.0%	4.76	4.17	+0.3
ROS	27	MLB MLE	HOU	6	0	6	27	6	3	1	0%	1.1	22.7%	10.2%	12.5%	2.7%	3.97	3.94	+0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	HOU	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	22.7%	10.2%	12.5%	2.7%	3.97	3.94	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	94	409	100	40	13	—	—	24.5%	9.7%	14.8%	3.1%	4.37	4.19	+0.7
FULL	27	MLB A+C	HOU	—	—	80	338	100	40	13	—	—	29.6%	11.8%	17.9%	3.8%	5.15	4.15	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	74	313	71	32	9	100%	6.2	22.7%	10.4%	12.3%	2.9%	4.43	4.45	+0.4
2028	29	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	71	299	66	32	9	100%	5.9	22.1%	10.6%	11.5%	3.0%	4.54	4.61	+0.2
2029	30	MLB MLE	HOU	11	11	67	281	60	31	9	100%	6.1	21.4%	10.9%	10.5%	3.2%	4.71	4.82	+0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	70	296	67	31	8	100%	5.8	22.7%	10.4%	12.3%	2.9%	4.43	4.45	+0.4
2028	29	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	67	283	63	30	9	100%	6.1	22.1%	10.6%	11.5%	3.0%	4.54	4.61	+0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	HOU	10	10	63	266	57	29	9	100%	6.3	21.4%	10.9%	10.5%	3.2%	4.71	4.82	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		82	50	322	1399	313	151	40	61%	3.9	22.4%	10.8%	11.6%	2.9%	4.94	4.16	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		51	31	200	869	195	94	25	62%	3.9	22.4%	10.8%	11.6%	2.9%	4.94	4.16	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		205	136	745	3278	736	388	78	66%	3.6	22.4%	11.8%	10.6%	2.4%	4.75	4.00	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	36	200	880	197	104	21	66%	3.6	22.4%	11.8%	10.6%	2.4%	4.75	4.00	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kai-Wei Teng (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.23	23.5%	10.4%	2.6%	—	4.62	22.1%	11.5%	212	+0.39	—	—	—
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	81
Sam Lewis R 2019 · 3.41 FIP	27	SP-	3.41	21.0%	10.8%	1.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	224	77
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	75
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	74
Chase Whitley R 2016 · 4.10 FIP	27	SP-	4.10	19.5%	7.0%	3.2%	.217	3.22	18.0%	11.8%	81	-0.88	3.09	159	74
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP-	4.93	19.3%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.96	3.02	341	73
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	71
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	71
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	70
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	69
Kyle Lloyd R 2018 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	18.2%	9.8%	2.6%	.336	4.75	17.2%	9.3%	110	+0.52	3.50	572	69
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	68
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	221	68
Esmil Rogers R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	29	SW	3.51	18.5%	8.9%	1.6%	.348	2.86	21.7%	17.9%	40	-0.65	2.86	199	68
Ben Lively R 2019 · 4.99 FIP	27	SW	4.99	20.8%	9.5%	4.5%	.312	3.30	20.9%	12.1%	77	-1.69	3.30	1,080	68
Chris Kachmar R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	26	SW	4.82	20.5%	7.8%	4.5%	.319	4.67	18.2%	7.1%	248	-0.15	4.29	360	68
J.P. France R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	27	SW	4.44	24.9%	10.9%	3.8%	.301	4.49	18.4%	8.8%	205	+0.05	4.04	577	67
Andres Santiago R 2017 · 4.16 FIP	27	SW	4.16	16.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.384	5.26	13.1%	3.2%	159	+1.10	3.76	291	67
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	67
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	70	22.5%	10.6%	1.13	4.48
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84