Kai-Wei Teng

P Houston Astros

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 241 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX3 levels	29	14	90	8.80	5.90	16.7%	12.5%	-1.4	K 14.4% · BB 11.5% · FIP 5.66
2025	26	MIX2 levels	34	11	87	4.57	2.25	33.8%	10.3%	2.5	K 30.5% · BB 9.7% · FIP 2.58
2026	27	MIX3 levels	43	12	91	4.25	3.92	24.6%	9.5%	0.7	K 23.7% · BB 9.4% · FIP 4.09
2027PROJ	28	MLBHOU	9	9	56	4.50	4.35	23.4%	9.6%	0.7
2028PROJ93% MLB	29	MLBHOU	7	7	40	4.50	4.51	22.8%	9.8%	0.4
2029PROJ94% MLB	30	MLBHOU	5	5	29	4.63	4.71	22.1%	10.1%	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%50

FB Velo33

xwOBA vs27

CompsFabio Castillo (age 28) · Erik Hiljus (age 28) · Dustin Nippert (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 102

ERA4.50

FIP4.35

K%23.4%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%13.8%

Proj IP61

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3393.3

Whiff%

p5626.3%

p5022.2%

xwOBA vs

p270.339

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	19	ROK MLE	GCL Twins	10	9	43	179	47	15	0	90%	4.3	17.9%	10.5%	7.4%	0.0%	3.59	2.92	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	GCL Twins	10	9	43	179	47	15	0	90%	4.3	26.3%	8.4%	17.9%	0.0%	3.59	1.95	—
2019	20	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	14	13	80	320	88	21	1	93%	5.7	20.4%	7.7%	12.6%	0.4%	1.58	2.57	—
2019	20	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	14	13	80	320	88	21	1	93%	5.7	27.5%	6.6%	20.9%	0.3%	1.58	1.84	—
2021	22	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	21	21	96	416	142	53	11	100%	4.6	26.3%	14.7%	11.6%	3.2%	4.33	4.47	—
2021	22	A+ RAW	Eugene Emeralds	21	21	96	416	142	53	11	100%	4.6	34.1%	12.7%	21.4%	2.6%	4.33	3.29	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	28	28	136	621	169	85	14	100%	4.9	22.0%	15.1%	7.0%	2.9%	5.22	4.74	—
2022	23	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	28	28	136	621	169	85	14	100%	4.9	27.2%	13.7%	13.5%	2.3%	5.22	3.83	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	126	550	164	68	8	97%	4.4	25.0%	11.9%	13.2%	1.7%	4.42	3.43	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	28	126	550	164	68	8	97%	4.4	29.8%	12.4%	17.5%	1.5%	4.42	2.94	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	14	90	431	72	54	18	48%	3.1	14.4%	11.5%	2.9%	4.2%	8.80	5.66	-1.1
2024	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	14	90	431	72	54	18	48%	3.1	14.4%	11.5%	2.9%	4.2%	8.80	5.66	-1.1
2024	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	14	90	431	72	54	18	48%	3.1	16.7%	12.5%	4.2%	4.2%	8.80	5.90	-1.4
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	11	87	379	128	39	5	32%	2.5	30.5%	9.7%	20.8%	1.5%	4.57	2.58	+2.1
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	11	87	379	128	39	5	32%	2.5	30.5%	9.7%	20.8%	1.5%	4.57	2.58	+2.1
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	11	87	379	128	39	5	32%	2.5	33.8%	10.3%	23.5%	1.3%	4.57	2.25	+2.5
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	12	91	391	96	37	12	28%	2.1	23.7%	9.4%	14.3%	3.3%	4.25	4.09	+0.5
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	12	91	391	96	37	12	28%	2.1	23.7%	9.4%	14.3%	3.3%	4.25	4.09	+0.5
2026	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	43	12	91	391	96	37	12	28%	2.1	24.6%	9.5%	15.1%	3.1%	4.25	3.92	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			42	17	114	523	119	58	14	40%	2.7	22.8%	11.1%	11.7%	2.7%	5.67	4.13	+0.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	HOU	9	9	56	236	55	23	7	100%	6.2	23.4%	9.6%	13.8%	3.0%	4.50	4.35	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	HOU	7	7	43	183	42	18	6	100%	6.2	22.8%	9.8%	13.0%	3.1%	4.50	4.51	+0.4
2029	30	MLB MLE	HOU	5	5	32	133	29	13	4	100%	6.3	22.1%	10.1%	12.0%	3.3%	4.63	4.71	+0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	HOU	7	7	40	169	39	17	5	100%	5.7	22.8%	9.8%	13.0%	3.1%	4.50	4.51	+0.4
2029	30	MLB CTX	HOU	5	5	29	122	27	12	4	100%	5.8	22.1%	10.1%	12.0%	3.3%	4.63	4.71	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		54	29	184	817	185	87	23	54%	3.4	22.7%	10.7%	12.0%	2.9%	5.25	4.11	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		58	31	200	888	201	95	25	53%	3.4	22.7%	10.7%	12.0%	2.9%	5.25	4.11	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		208	136	748	3287	751	386	79	65%	3.6	22.9%	11.8%	11.1%	2.4%	4.73	3.97	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	36	200	878	201	103	21	65%	3.6	22.9%	11.8%	11.1%	2.4%	4.73	3.97	+2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 14 IPFIP 2.69 → 3.29 (+0.60)K% 39.2% → 33.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.22%	—	×0.860	33.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.88%	—	×0.900	5.29%
HR / BF /BF	3.92%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.31%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.69 → 3.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASacramento River Cats · 57 IPFIP 1.82 → 2.26 (+0.44)K% 37.1% → 31.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.08%	—	×0.860	31.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.17%	—	×0.900	8.25%
HR / BF /BF	1.25%	÷0.938	×1.100	1.47%

Result: FIP 1.82 → 2.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASacramento River Cats · 75 IPFIP 5.36 → 5.60 (+0.24)K% 17.0% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.04%	—	×0.860	14.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.29%	—	×0.900	11.06%
HR / BF /BF	3.91%	÷1.010	×1.100	4.26%

Result: FIP 5.36 → 5.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASacramento River Cats · 79 IPFIP 3.15 → 3.33 (+0.18)K% 27.6% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.59%	—	×0.860	23.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.79%	—	×0.900	12.41%
HR / BF /BF	1.15%	÷1.057	×1.100	1.20%

Result: FIP 3.15 → 3.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 47 IPFIP 2.60 → 3.62 (+1.02)K% 33.7% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.66%	—	×0.810	27.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.90%	—	×1.100	10.89%
HR / BF /BF	1.98%	÷0.906	×1.200	2.62%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 81).

Result: FIP 2.60 → 3.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 136 IPFIP 3.77 → 4.74 (+0.97)K% 27.2% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.21%	—	×0.810	22.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.69%	—	×1.100	15.06%
HR / BF /BF	2.25%	÷0.929	×1.200	2.91%

Result: FIP 3.77 → 4.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Eugene Emeralds · 96 IPFIP 3.28 → 4.47 (+1.18)K% 34.1% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.13%	—	×0.770	26.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.74%	—	×1.150	14.65%
HR / BF /BF	2.64%	÷1.049	×1.250	3.15%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 3.28 → 4.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAugusta GreenJackets · 80 IPFIP 1.78 → 2.57 (+0.79)K% 27.5% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.50%	—	×0.740	20.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.56%	—	×1.180	7.74%
HR / BF /BF	0.31%	÷1.082	×1.300	0.38%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 1.78 → 2.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kai-Wei Teng (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.59	22.5%	12.6%	75	+0.24	—	—	—
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	78
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	77
Dustin Nippert R 2009 · 4.09 FIP	28	SP-	4.09	18.0%	9.7%	2.3%	.271	4.49	17.9%	6.1%	57	+0.40	3.83	268	74
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	74
Sam Lewis R 2019 · 3.41 FIP	27	SP-	3.41	21.0%	10.8%	1.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	224	69
Drew VerHagen R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	28	SW	4.11	19.5%	7.3%	3.2%	.344	6.00	17.0%	4.7%	22	+1.89	2.80	487	69
Nate Karns R 2016 · 3.88 FIP	28	SP-	3.88	24.2%	10.6%	2.7%	.322	4.46	27.1%	20.7%	45	+0.58	3.88	299	68
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	68
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	242	68
Asher Wojciechowski R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SW	3.99	23.4%	6.5%	3.7%	.299	5.06	21.5%	13.1%	323	+1.07	3.15	678	68
Kyle Snyder R 2006 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP-	4.47	19.9%	5.9%	4.2%	.373	4.83	16.9%	4.5%	54	+0.36	3.80	236	68
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	68
Kolton Mahoney R 2019 · 3.56 FIP	27	SW	3.56	19.4%	8.8%	1.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	302	67
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	67
Todd Redmond R 2013 · 4.14 FIP	28	SP-	4.14	23.5%	6.5%	4.0%	.266	3.57	17.0%	10.1%	170	-0.57	3.21	247	66
Mike Bolsinger R 2016 · 4.20 FIP	28	SP-	4.20	21.9%	8.3%	3.4%	.349	4.26	20.2%	10.8%	89	+0.06	3.42	379	66
Mitch Neunborn R 2024 · 4.25 FIP	27	SP-	4.25	19.0%	12.0%	2.2%	.285	5.80	16.4%	6.5%	114	+1.55	3.65	248	65
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2012 · 4.28 FIP	31	SP-	4.28	19.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.277	3.45	21.5%	17.8%	528	-0.83	3.19	884	65
Braydon Tucker R 2024 · 3.25 FIP	25	SP-	3.25	18.3%	7.1%	1.5%	.291	4.70	15.3%	6.3%	208	+1.45	3.25	314	65
Jesse Scholtens R 2022 · 4.18 FIP	28	SW	4.18	22.4%	8.4%	3.5%	.303	4.35	18.8%	11.9%	193	+0.17	3.34	883	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	50	22.8%	10.4%	1.12	5.05
Scott Service ('04)	2.1	46	22.2%	9.9%	1.23	5.04
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Bob Allen ('61-'67, -1 WAR*)	1.4	55	21.4%*	10.4%*	0.89*	4.79*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65