Kai-Wei Teng
P
Houston Astros
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 241 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
ILInjured 15-Day (D15)
2026 ROS PROJECTION67 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.24
FIP4.24
K%23.3%
BB%11.7%
K-BB%11.6%
ROS IP6
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3693.5
Whiff%
p5025.2%
K%
p5222.5%
xwOBA vs
p340.330
SL+4.4 (36%)
FB+2.0 (44%)
SI (16%)
CU (10%)
CH-0.7 (10%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | GCL Twins | 10 | 9 | 43 | 179 | 47 | 15 | 0 | 90% | 4.3 | 17.9% | 10.5% | 7.4% | 0.0% | 3.59 | 2.92 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | GCL Twins | 10 | 9 | 43 | 179 | 47 | 15 | 0 | 90% | 4.3 | 26.3% | 8.4% | 17.9% | 0.0% | 3.59 | 1.95 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 14 | 13 | 80 | 320 | 88 | 21 | 1 | 93% | 5.7 | 20.4% | 7.7% | 12.6% | 0.3% | 1.58 | 2.55 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 14 | 13 | 80 | 320 | 88 | 21 | 1 | 93% | 5.7 | 27.5% | 6.6% | 20.9% | 0.3% | 1.58 | 1.84 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 21 | 21 | 96 | 416 | 142 | 53 | 11 | 100% | 4.6 | 26.3% | 14.7% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.39 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 21 | 21 | 96 | 416 | 142 | 53 | 11 | 100% | 4.6 | 34.1% | 12.7% | 21.4% | 2.6% | 4.33 | 3.29 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 28 | 28 | 136 | 621 | 169 | 85 | 14 | 100% | 4.9 | 22.0% | 15.1% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 5.22 | 4.88 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 28 | 28 | 136 | 621 | 169 | 85 | 14 | 100% | 4.9 | 27.2% | 13.7% | 13.5% | 2.3% | 5.22 | 3.83 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 28 | 126 | 550 | 164 | 68 | 8 | 97% | 4.4 | 25.4% | 13.2% | 12.2% | 1.8% | 4.42 | 3.61 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 28 | 126 | 550 | 164 | 68 | 8 | 97% | 4.4 | 29.8% | 12.4% | 17.5% | 1.5% | 4.42 | 2.94 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 14 | 90 | 431 | 72 | 54 | 18 | 48% | 3.1 | 14.7% | 13.1% | 1.6% | 4.2% | 8.80 | 5.82 | -0.7 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 14 | 90 | 431 | 72 | 54 | 18 | 48% | 3.1 | 16.7% | 12.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 8.80 | 5.90 | -0.8 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 11 | 87 | 379 | 128 | 39 | 5 | 32% | 2.5 | 31.0% | 10.6% | 20.4% | 1.6% | 4.57 | 2.69 | +2.5 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 11 | 87 | 379 | 128 | 39 | 5 | 32% | 2.5 | 33.8% | 10.3% | 23.5% | 1.3% | 4.57 | 2.25 | +2.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Houston Astros | 25 | 12 | 67 | 291 | 66 | 29 | 10 | 48% | 2.7 | 22.5% | 10.0% | 12.5% | 3.6% | 4.16 | 4.43 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.24 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | HOU | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.24 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 73 | 317 | 72 | 32 | 11 | — | — | 22.7% | 10.1% | 12.6% | 3.4% | 4.17 | 4.41 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 70 | 296 | 72 | 32 | 11 | — | — | 24.3% | 10.8% | 13.5% | 3.6% | 4.35 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 74 | 313 | 73 | 37 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.3% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 3.1% | 4.65 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 71 | 299 | 68 | 36 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.7% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.77 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 67 | 281 | 62 | 35 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.0% | 12.4% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 4.94 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 69 | 35 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.3% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 3.1% | 4.65 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 64 | 34 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.7% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.77 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 59 | 33 | 9 | 100% | 6.3 | 22.0% | 12.4% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 4.94 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 74 | 50 | 312 | 1348 | 308 | 159 | 42 | 68% | 4.2 | 22.8% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 5.01 | 4.37 | +3.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 32 | 200 | 865 | 198 | 102 | 27 | 68% | 4.2 | 22.8% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 5.01 | 4.37 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 190 | 136 | 724 | 3187 | 729 | 396 | 77 | 72% | 3.8 | 22.9% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 2.4% | 4.73 | 4.08 | +11.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 38 | 200 | 880 | 201 | 109 | 21 | 72% | 3.8 | 22.9% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 2.4% | 4.73 | 4.08 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kai-Wei Teng (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.51 | 24.3% | 13.0% | 2.6% | — | 4.86 | 22.7% | 10.6% | 212 | +0.35 | — | — | — |
| Dawson Netz R 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 79 |
| Preston Johnson R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 79 |
| Sam Lewis R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.43 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.3% | .246 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 224 | 74 |
| Jonathan Pintaro R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.11 | 24.4% | 13.2% | 2.5% | .302 | 3.12 | 26.0% | 15.4% | 35 | -0.99 | 3.12 | 187 | 73 |
| Shawn Dubin R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.35 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 3.8% | .292 | 3.91 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 79 | -1.44 | 3.04 | 341 | 72 |
| Chase Whitley R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.04 | 19.5% | 7.0% | 3.1% | .217 | 3.24 | 18.0% | 11.8% | 81 | -0.80 | 3.11 | 159 | 72 |
| Raynel Espinal R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | .313 | 3.72 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 224 | -0.04 | 2.53 | 507 | 71 |
| Chad Dallas R 2025 · 3.40 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.40 | 19.8% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.40 | 322 | 70 |
| Brian Edgington R 2025 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.05 | 19.3% | 12.3% | 3.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 171 | 70 |
| Burch Smith R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 70 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.63 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | +0.03 | 3.22 | 254 | 69 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.02 | 24.3% | 8.6% | 3.5% | .248 | 4.01 | 27.6% | 18.3% | 42 | -0.01 | 3.97 | 281 | 68 |
| Trent Sellers R 2025 · 5.09 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.09 | 23.5% | 14.2% | 4.0% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 236 | 68 |
| Connor Schultz R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.85 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 171 | 68 |
| Kyle Lloyd R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.17 | 18.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .336 | 4.33 | 17.2% | 9.3% | 110 | +0.16 | 3.46 | 572 | 68 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 67 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.20 | 18.3% | 9.1% | 2.7% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.20 | 416 | 67 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.49 | 19.6% | 13.6% | 4.2% | .330 | 6.70 | 15.2% | 5.2% | 69 | +1.21 | 3.69 | 333 | 67 |
| Ryan Gusto R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.68 | 22.2% | 9.0% | 2.4% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 521 | 67 |
| Justin Topa R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 15.1% | 7.9% | 2.2% | .374 | 2.66 | 19.2% | 12.6% | 40 | -1.39 | 2.66 | 259 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 70 | 23.1% | 12.3% | 1.19 | 4.71 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |