Brayan Castillo
P
Hartford Yard Goats
+0.3
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'0" / 204 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.4 · 2027
ERA4.31
FIP4.31
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.6%
BB%11.3%
K-BB%12.3%
IP47
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2027
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rockies | 13 | 10 | 44 | 193 | 38 | 21 | 1 | 13.4% | 13.6% | 0.7% | 4.87 | 4.09 | +0.4 |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL Colorado | 11 | 11 | 52 | 221 | 48 | 23 | 1 | 14.8% | 13.0% | 0.6% | 3.61 | 3.85 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 8 | 5 | 25 | 119 | 28 | 16 | 0 | 16.0% | 16.8% | 0.0% | 5.11 | 3.88 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 22 | 22 | 99 | 453 | 89 | 51 | 12 | 14.5% | 13.3% | 3.6% | 5.62 | 5.56 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 24 | 8 | 62 | 296 | 58 | 46 | 5 | 15.1% | 17.9% | 2.0% | 6.21 | 5.21 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 37 | 0 | 43 | 179 | 52 | 22 | 5 | 22.9% | 14.9% | 3.5% | 3.32 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 41 | 0 | 52 | 218 | 64 | 25 | 2 | 24.6% | 12.4% | 1.0% | 2.94 | 3.12 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | COL | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 47 | 22 | 5 | 23.6% | 11.3% | 2.5% | 4.31 | 4.31 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | COL | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 47 | 22 | 5 | 23.8% | 11.1% | 2.6% | 4.30 | 4.29 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | COL | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 47 | 22 | 5 | 23.8% | 10.9% | 2.6% | 4.30 | 4.30 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | COL | 46 | — | 46 | 194 | 46 | 21 | 5 | 23.7% | 10.9% | 2.7% | 4.32 | 4.33 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | COL | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 45 | 21 | 5 | 23.6% | 10.9% | 2.7% | 4.35 | 4.37 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | COL | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 43 | 20 | 5 | 23.4% | 11.0% | 2.8% | 4.40 | 4.43 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | COL | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 41 | 20 | 5 | 23.2% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.51 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | COL | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 39 | 19 | 5 | 22.9% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | COL | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 37 | 19 | 5 | 22.6% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | COL | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 34 | 18 | 5 | 22.2% | 11.7% | 3.1% | 4.73 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | COL | 35 | — | 35 | 146 | 32 | 17 | 5 | 21.8% | 11.9% | 3.2% | 4.85 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | COL | 32 | — | 32 | 137 | 29 | 17 | 5 | 21.4% | 12.2% | 3.4% | 4.97 | 5.06 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 156 | 56 | 378 | 1679 | 283 | 242 | 34 | 16.8% | 14.4% | 2.0% | 4.69 | 4.60 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 82 | 30 | 200 | 888 | 150 | 128 | 18 | 16.8% | 14.4% | 2.0% | 4.69 | 4.60 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brayan Castillo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.31 | 23.6% | 11.3% | 2.5% | — | 4.31 | 23.8% | 12.8% | 140 | -0.00 | — | — | — |
| Jason Stoffel R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 92 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.46 | 3.49 | 140 | 91 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.8% | .256 | 4.33 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.08 | 3.88 | 180 | 89 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 87 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 87 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 1.7% | .291 | 3.65 | 18.9% | 6.4% | 50 | +0.16 | 3.16 | 153 | 87 |
| Brooks Kriske R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.48 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 1.9% | .245 | 4.81 | 28.6% | 16.5% | 41 | +1.33 | 3.04 | 230 | 86 |
| Dylan Hall R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.98 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 1.8% | .305 | 7.30 | 15.1% | 2.4% | 58 | +3.32 | 3.48 | 153 | 86 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2028 · 3.21 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.21 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.20 | 23.6% | 14.6% | 81 | -0.01 | 2.42 | 125 | 86 |
| Cameron Gann R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.21 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 2.4% | .296 | 5.37 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 23 | +1.16 | 3.60 | 146 | 86 |
| Zac Leigh R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.82 | 28.1% | 11.7% | 2.9% | .282 | 4.76 | 19.3% | 1.3% | 95 | +0.94 | 3.72 | 164 | 86 |
| Blake Goldsberry R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.39 | 23.6% | 8.3% | 2.2% | .257 | 5.29 | 23.6% | 12.0% | 44 | +1.90 | 3.39 | 117 | 85 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.73 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.5% | .284 | 3.72 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | -0.01 | 3.05 | 290 | 85 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.01 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.17 | 23.4% | 17.9% | 58 | +0.16 | 4.01 | 142 | 85 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.43 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.1% | .286 | 3.56 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 71 | +0.13 | 2.48 | 138 | 84 |
| Logan Boyer R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 25.0% | 12.3% | 2.1% | .267 | 4.91 | 17.9% | 1.6% | 54 | +1.21 | 3.70 | 121 | 84 |
| Luis Ramirez R 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.73 | 24.0% | 12.6% | 1.9% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 104 | 84 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 84 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.41 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.4% | .311 | 5.44 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.41 | 152 | 84 |
| Jake Lee R 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.64 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 3.9% | .296 | 3.50 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.14 | 2.78 | 181 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.6M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.8M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.3M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.2 | $1.0M | -$0.0M |
| Totals | $5M | $7M | +$2M | ||