Efrain Contreras

P Rocket City Trash Pandas

Age 27 RHP 5'10" / 225 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	AAPHI	14	8	45	9.67	5.34	23.7%	11.2%	—	K 19.2% · BB 12.3% · FIP 5.73
2026	26	AALAA	10	0	16	3.94	3.35	33.3%	4.5%	—	K 27.0% · BB 5.0% · FIP 4.45
2027PROJ	27	MLBLAA	2	2	12	4.27	4.27	24.0%	8.1%	0.1
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBLAA	1	1	8	4.33	4.36	23.8%	8.3%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsErik Hiljus (age 28) · Ricky Castro (age 24) · Sam Lewis (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.27

FIP4.27

K%24.0%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%15.9%

Proj IP12

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Padres 1	14	7	62	245	69	12	4	50%	4.5	19.2%	6.1%	13.0%	2.3%	2.31	3.51	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	AZL Padres 1	14	7	62	245	69	12	4	50%	4.5	28.2%	4.9%	23.3%	1.6%	2.31	2.30	—
2019	19	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	25	23	110	455	121	32	12	92%	4.4	19.7%	8.3%	11.4%	3.0%	3.61	4.12	—
2019	19	A RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	25	23	110	455	121	32	12	92%	4.4	26.6%	7.0%	19.6%	2.6%	3.61	3.19	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	17	17	53	246	64	25	7	100%	3.1	20.0%	11.7%	8.3%	3.9%	5.74	5.01	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	17	17	53	246	64	25	7	100%	3.1	26.0%	10.2%	15.9%	2.8%	5.74	3.81	—
2023	23	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	35	17	97	421	117	48	14	49%	2.8	22.5%	12.5%	10.0%	4.9%	4.92	5.46	—
2023	23	AA RAW	San Antonio Missions	35	17	97	421	117	48	14	49%	2.8	27.8%	11.4%	16.4%	3.3%	4.92	4.05	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	14	8	45	215	51	24	10	57%	3.2	19.2%	12.3%	6.9%	4.9%	9.67	5.73	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	14	8	45	215	51	24	10	57%	3.2	19.2%	12.3%	6.9%	4.9%	9.67	5.73	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	14	8	45	215	51	24	10	57%	3.2	23.7%	11.2%	12.6%	4.7%	9.67	5.34	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	10	0	16	66	22	3	3	0%	1.6	27.0%	5.0%	22.0%	5.5%	3.94	4.45	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	10	0	16	66	22	3	3	0%	1.6	27.0%	5.0%	22.0%	5.5%	3.94	4.45	—
2026	26	AA RAW	Rocket City Trash Pandas	10	0	16	66	22	3	3	0%	1.6	33.3%	4.5%	28.8%	4.5%	3.94	3.35	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	LAA	2	2	12	51	12	4	2	100%	6.0	24.0%	8.1%	15.9%	3.3%	4.27	4.27	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	LAA	3	3	20	84	20	7	3	100%	6.7	23.8%	8.3%	15.4%	3.3%	4.33	4.36	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	LAA	1	1	8	34	8	3	1	100%	8.0	23.8%	8.3%	15.4%	3.3%	4.33	4.36	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		1	1	8	32	8	3	1	100%	7.5	23.8%	8.3%	15.4%	3.3%	4.33	3.98	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	213	80	27	100%	6.0	23.8%	8.3%	15.4%	3.3%	4.33	3.98	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		115	72	383	1648	340	164	63	63%	3.3	20.6%	10.0%	10.7%	3.8%	4.75	4.73	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	38	200	861	177	86	33	63%	3.3	20.6%	10.0%	10.7%	3.8%	4.75	4.73	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Efrain Contreras (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.27	24.0%	8.1%	3.3%	—	4.36	23.8%	15.4%	20	+0.09	—	—	—
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	75
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	72
Sam Lewis R 2019 · 3.41 FIP	27	SP-	3.41	21.0%	10.8%	1.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	224	70
Chase Whitley R 2016 · 4.10 FIP	27	SP-	4.10	19.5%	7.0%	3.2%	.217	3.22	18.0%	11.8%	81	-0.88	3.09	235	70
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	69
Tylor Megill R 2022 · 3.70 FIP	27	SP-	3.70	25.5%	6.5%	3.5%	.302	3.88	22.8%	12.8%	359	+0.18	3.02	603	68
TJ Shook R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	26	SW	4.15	23.7%	8.7%	3.5%	.317	3.92	20.0%	11.1%	107	-0.23	3.35	452	65
Jimmy Endersby R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	17.3%	8.0%	3.4%	.257	2.86	17.2%	12.8%	36	-1.68	2.86	357	65
Kyle Lloyd R 2018 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	18.2%	9.8%	2.6%	.336	4.75	17.2%	9.3%	110	+0.52	3.50	572	65
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	20.0%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.90	3.02	341	65
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	65
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	64
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.67	22.0%	14.9%	279	+0.48	3.19	310	64
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	63
Jake Lee R 2022 · 3.27 FIP	27	SP-	3.27	16.8%	7.1%	1.3%	.338	5.88	15.9%	9.6%	93	+2.61	2.78	181	63
Dave Borkowski R 2004 · 3.61 FIP	27	SW	3.61	18.2%	5.7%	2.4%	.324	3.79	18.4%	11.8%	143	+0.18	3.61	341	63
Heath Holder R 2019 · 3.26 FIP	26	SW	3.26	21.9%	7.5%	1.9%	.263	5.51	19.8%	4.9%	85	+2.25	2.94	367	62
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	62
Todd Redmond R 2013 · 4.14 FIP	28	SP-	4.14	23.5%	6.5%	4.0%	.266	3.57	17.0%	10.1%	170	-0.57	3.21	247	61
Phil Klein R 2016 · 3.10 FIP	27	SW	3.10	24.5%	6.6%	2.2%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	197	61