Ivan Armstrong — OGILVIE

Ivan Armstrong P Harrisburg Senators

Age 26 RHP 6'5" / 247 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.42

FIP5.42

K%17.3%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%5.2%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants	14	14	56	243	47	32	2	100%	4.0	13.2%	16.5%	-3.3%	1.2%	3.38	4.71	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL Giants	14	14	56	243	47	32	2	100%	4.0	19.3%	13.2%	6.2%	0.8%	3.38	3.60	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	AZL Giants Black	12	6	35	166	31	22	3	50%	2.9	12.7%	16.6%	-3.9%	2.5%	6.43	5.51	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	AZL Giants Black	12	6	35	166	31	22	3	50%	2.9	18.7%	13.3%	5.4%	1.8%	6.43	4.33	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	57	238	60	22	0	0%	1.9	18.9%	10.8%	8.1%	0.0%	3.30	2.88	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	57	238	60	22	0	0%	1.9	25.2%	9.2%	16.0%	0.0%	3.30	2.16	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	0	33	137	39	10	3	0%	1.2	25.2%	4.0%	21.3%	2.6%	3.27	2.92	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	0	33	137	39	10	3	0%	1.2	28.5%	7.3%	21.2%	2.2%	3.27	2.83	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	43	4	70	326	76	39	13	9%	1.6	18.9%	13.2%	5.7%	4.9%	5.14	5.88	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	43	4	70	326	76	39	13	9%	1.6	18.9%	13.2%	5.7%	4.9%	5.14	5.88	—
2023	23	AA RAW	Rocket City Trash Pandas	43	4	70	326	76	39	13	9%	1.6	23.3%	12.0%	11.3%	4.0%	5.14	5.01	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	2	69	294	65	30	7	6%	2.1	17.9%	10.8%	7.1%	2.9%	3.41	4.56	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	2	69	294	65	30	7	6%	2.1	17.9%	10.8%	7.1%	2.9%	3.41	4.56	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	2	69	294	65	30	7	6%	2.1	22.1%	10.2%	11.9%	2.4%	3.41	3.84	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	17	0	18	87	14	12	5	0%	1.0	13.0%	15.2%	-2.1%	7.2%	7.64	7.85	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	17	0	18	87	14	12	5	0%	1.0	13.0%	15.2%	-2.1%	7.2%	7.64	7.85	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	17	0	18	87	14	12	5	0%	1.0	16.1%	13.8%	2.3%	5.7%	7.64	7.23	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	WSH	2	0	2	8	1	1	0	0%	1.0	17.3%	12.1%	5.2%	3.4%	5.42	5.42	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	WSH	58	0	61	257	46	31	9	0%	1.1	17.9%	11.9%	6.0%	3.4%	5.34	5.35	-0.5
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	56	0	59	250	45	30	9	0%	1.1	18.2%	11.8%	6.4%	3.5%	5.32	5.36	-0.5
2027	27	MLB CTX	WSH	22	0	23	97	17	12	3	0%	1.0	17.9%	11.9%	6.0%	3.4%	5.34	5.35	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	33	0	35	148	27	17	5	0%	1.1	18.2%	11.8%	6.4%	3.5%	5.32	5.36	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		55	0	58	245	44	29	8	0%	1.1	18.1%	11.8%	6.2%	3.5%	5.33	4.97	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	152	100	28	0%	1.1	18.1%	11.8%	6.2%	3.5%	5.33	4.97	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		176	26	338	1491	258	187	42	15%	1.9	17.3%	12.5%	4.8%	2.8%	4.26	4.75	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		104	15	200	883	153	110	25	15%	1.9	17.3%	12.5%	4.8%	2.8%	4.26	4.75	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ivan Armstrong (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.42	17.3%	12.1%	3.4%	—	5.35	18.0%	6.2%	120	-0.07	—	—	—
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	86
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	84
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	83
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	82
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	82
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	82
Jake Johansen R 2017 · 4.65 FIP	26	SU	4.65	15.9%	12.1%	2.5%	.273	3.65	12.8%	4.9%	48	-1.00	3.65	162	82
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	81
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	81
Josh Hejka R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	16.7%	10.8%	2.9%	.363	3.93	15.8%	8.7%	77	-0.72	2.91	198	81
Tyler Burch R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.0%	12.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	119	81
Guido Knudson R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	26	SU	4.69	17.5%	10.8%	3.1%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	106	81
Confesor Lara R 2016 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	16.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	111	80
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	80
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	80
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	80
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	79
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	79
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	79
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	17.9%	11.9%	1.33	5.34
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86