Ivan Armstrong
P
Harrisburg Senators
Age 26
RHP
6'5" / 247 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 22 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134124vR 115
ERA5.08
FIP5.08
K%20.0%
BB%10.9%
K-BB%9.1%
ROS IP23
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Giants | 14 | 14 | 56 | 243 | 47 | 32 | 2 | 100% | 4.0 | 13.2% | 16.5% | -3.3% | 1.2% | 3.38 | 4.71 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Giants | 14 | 14 | 56 | 243 | 47 | 32 | 2 | 100% | 4.0 | 19.3% | 13.2% | 6.2% | 0.8% | 3.38 | 3.60 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | AZL Giants Black | 12 | 6 | 35 | 166 | 31 | 22 | 3 | 50% | 2.9 | 12.7% | 16.6% | -3.9% | 2.5% | 6.43 | 5.51 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | AZL Giants Black | 12 | 6 | 35 | 166 | 31 | 22 | 3 | 50% | 2.9 | 18.7% | 13.3% | 5.4% | 1.8% | 6.43 | 4.33 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 0 | 57 | 238 | 60 | 22 | 0 | 0% | 1.9 | 18.9% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 0.0% | 3.30 | 2.88 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 0 | 57 | 238 | 60 | 22 | 0 | 0% | 1.9 | 25.2% | 9.2% | 16.0% | 0.0% | 3.30 | 2.16 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 0 | 33 | 137 | 39 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.2% | 4.0% | 21.3% | 3.4% | 3.27 | 3.35 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 0 | 33 | 137 | 39 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.5% | 7.3% | 21.2% | 2.2% | 3.27 | 2.83 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 43 | 4 | 70 | 326 | 76 | 39 | 13 | 9% | 1.6 | 18.9% | 13.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.14 | 5.96 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | 43 | 4 | 70 | 326 | 76 | 39 | 13 | 9% | 1.6 | 23.3% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 4.0% | 5.14 | 5.01 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 2 | 69 | 294 | 65 | 30 | 7 | 6% | 2.1 | 18.0% | 11.1% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 3.41 | 4.66 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 2 | 69 | 294 | 65 | 30 | 7 | 6% | 2.1 | 22.1% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 2.4% | 3.41 | 3.84 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 17 | 0 | 18 | 87 | 14 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.0% | 15.2% | -2.1% | 7.4% | 7.64 | 8.01 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 17 | 0 | 18 | 87 | 14 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.1% | 13.8% | 2.3% | 5.7% | 7.64 | 7.23 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 0 | 23 | 96 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 5.08 | 5.08 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 21 | 0 | 22 | 95 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 5.02 | 5.04 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 8 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 5.02 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 8 | 0 | 8 | 36 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 5.02 | 4.66 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 166 | 95 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 5.02 | 4.66 | +1.7 | ||
| Career | — | 176 | 26 | 338 | 1491 | 258 | 187 | 44 | 15% | 1.9 | 17.3% | 12.6% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 4.84 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 104 | 15 | 200 | 883 | 153 | 111 | 26 | 15% | 1.9 | 17.3% | 12.6% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 4.84 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ivan Armstrong (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.08 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.5% | — | 5.04 | 20.3% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.02 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.56 | 2.69 | 315 | 83 |
| Zach Bryant R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.82 | 18.0% | 9.6% | 3.7% | .313 | 4.72 | 17.8% | 6.9% | 84 | -0.10 | 4.36 | 194 | 82 |
| Carter Rustad R 2025 · 4.84 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.84 | 19.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 101 | 82 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 106 | 81 |
| Brett McKinney R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.06 | 18.5% | 9.9% | 4.1% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 183 | 81 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.34 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .273 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.18 | 3.57 | 187 | 81 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 81 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 81 |
| Logan Taylor R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.78 | 17.2% | 12.1% | 2.9% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 300 | 80 |
| Kyle Whitten R 2025 · 5.21 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.21 | 18.2% | 10.8% | 4.1% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 152 | 80 |
| Guido Knudson R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.83 | 17.5% | 10.8% | 3.4% | .235 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 106 | 80 |
| Kyle Martin R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.28 | 18.3% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .304 | 3.13 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 51 | -1.15 | 3.02 | 214 | 80 |
| Grant Black R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 80 |
| Justin Courtney R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.26 | 16.8% | 12.8% | 3.6% | .331 | 9.13 | 18.4% | 7.1% | 21 | +3.87 | 4.53 | 108 | 80 |
| Hunter Parsons R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.03 | 22.8% | 10.9% | 4.5% | .274 | 6.73 | 25.5% | 9.0% | 29 | +1.70 | 4.95 | 183 | 80 |
| David Holman R 2027 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.25 | 15.6% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .324 | 5.21 | 9.6% | 0.5% | 107 | -0.04 | 5.04 | 129 | 80 |
| Spencer Stockton R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.19 | 20.2% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .276 | 5.42 | 19.0% | 5.8% | 63 | +1.23 | 1.93 | 233 | 79 |
| Jack Hartman R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.36 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 3.5% | .310 | 4.40 | 17.6% | 5.6% | 46 | +0.04 | 3.42 | 161 | 79 |
| Josh Hejka R 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.87 | 16.7% | 10.8% | 3.3% | .363 | 4.09 | 15.8% | 8.7% | 77 | -0.78 | 2.94 | 182 | 79 |
| Jonathan Hughes R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.28 | 17.1% | 9.2% | 2.7% | .283 | 3.58 | 17.1% | 4.9% | 50 | -0.70 | 3.50 | 219 | 79 |