Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | ACL Padres | 7 | 0 | 15 | 62 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 2.2 | 29.6% | 4.0% | 25.6% | 2.3% | 2.35 | 2.35 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | ACL Padres | 7 | 0 | 15 | 62 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 2.2 | 43.5% | 3.2% | 40.3% | 1.6% | 2.35 | 0.82 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 93 | 399 | 120 | 30 | 15 | 100% | 4.4 | 22.3% | 8.8% | 13.5% | 5.6% | 4.74 | 5.39 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 93 | 399 | 120 | 30 | 15 | 100% | 4.4 | 30.1% | 7.5% | 22.6% | 3.8% | 4.74 | 3.58 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 4 | 4 | 15 | 68 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 3.8 | 17.0% | 10.1% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.60 | 5.85 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 4 | 4 | 15 | 68 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 3.8 | 22.1% | 8.8% | 13.2% | 2.9% | 3.60 | 4.03 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 60 | 228 | 80 | 22 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 27.4% | 10.9% | 16.5% | 0.6% | 1.50 | 2.51 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 60 | 228 | 80 | 22 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 35.1% | 9.6% | 25.4% | 0.4% | 1.50 | 1.75 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 25 | 0 | 28 | 132 | 29 | 26 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.6% | 23.2% | -7.7% | 1.9% | 6.11 | 5.80 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | SD | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 53 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.0% | 11.9% | 15.0% | 2.6% | 4.13 | 4.13 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | SD | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 22 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.0% | 11.9% | 15.0% | 2.6% | 4.13 | 4.13 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | SD | — | — | 75 | 330 | 82 | 50 | 7 | — | — | 25.0% | 15.0% | 9.9% | 2.2% | 4.87 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | SD | — | — | 19 | 79 | 21 | 9 | 2 | — | — | 27.0% | 11.9% | 15.0% | 2.6% | 4.13 | 3.75 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SD | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 77 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.6% | 11.7% | 14.8% | 2.7% | 4.17 | 4.18 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SD | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 74 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.2% | 11.7% | 14.5% | 2.8% | 4.24 | 4.28 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SD | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 47 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.6% | 11.7% | 14.8% | 2.7% | 4.17 | 4.18 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SD | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 55 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.2% | 11.7% | 14.5% | 2.8% | 4.24 | 4.28 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 105 | 0 | 110 | 466 | 123 | 55 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.5% | 11.7% | 14.7% | 2.7% | 4.19 | 3.84 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 223 | 100 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.5% | 11.7% | 14.7% | 2.7% | 4.19 | 3.84 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 102 | 25 | 211 | 889 | 202 | 100 | 31 | 25% | 2.1 | 22.7% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 3.5% | 3.75 | 4.54 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 97 | 24 | 200 | 841 | 191 | 95 | 30 | 25% | 2.1 | 22.7% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 3.5% | 3.75 | 4.54 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Garrett Hawkins (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.13 | 27.0% | 11.9% | 2.6% | — | 4.23 | 26.4% | 14.7% | 136 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 86 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.89 | 25.1% | 13.4% | 2.2% | .310 | 4.58 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 79 | +0.69 | 3.89 | 272 | 84 |
| Peyton Gray R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.31 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 138 | 84 |
| Maikel Cleto R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 25.8% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .214 | 3.04 | 25.0% | 15.3% | 55 | -0.50 | 2.59 | 156 | 84 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.34 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .273 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.18 | 3.57 | 187 | 83 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 83 |
| Brooks Kriske R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.52 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .245 | 5.01 | 28.6% | 16.5% | 41 | +1.49 | 3.00 | 246 | 83 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.75 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .292 | 4.81 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +1.06 | 3.75 | 299 | 83 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.62 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 1.8% | .291 | 6.27 | 19.1% | -8.3% | 16 | +2.65 | 3.05 | 134 | 83 |
| Jordan Gore R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.24 | 25.8% | 11.9% | 1.5% | .223 | 5.47 | 15.2% | -3.3% | 46 | +2.23 | 3.24 | 113 | 82 |
| Simon Castro R 2027 · 3.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.16 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .320 | 3.55 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.39 | 2.85 | 185 | 82 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.57 | 26.5% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .299 | 4.42 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 87 | -0.15 | 3.74 | 163 | 82 |
| Tucker Healy R 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.02 | 30.4% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .294 | 4.85 | 16.9% | 5.8% | 67 | +1.83 | 2.85 | 174 | 81 |
| Eric Orze R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.96 | 28.8% | 12.7% | 3.1% | .261 | 3.34 | 22.7% | 12.8% | 112 | -0.62 | 3.06 | 331 | 81 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.69 | 26.8% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .289 | 3.84 | 20.9% | 11.9% | 66 | +0.15 | 3.31 | 166 | 81 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.16 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.34 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.18 | 3.78 | 180 | 81 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.77 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .242 | 3.56 | 22.5% | 12.4% | 100 | -0.21 | 3.05 | 205 | 81 |
| Zach Franklin R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.48 | 29.2% | 11.7% | 2.5% | .265 | 5.47 | 27.4% | 21.2% | 41 | +1.99 | 3.48 | 138 | 81 |
| Matt Blackham R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.90 | 25.4% | 12.0% | 2.6% | .206 | 7.09 | 26.9% | 8.7% | 25 | +3.19 | 2.08 | 187 | 80 |
| Blake Smith R 2027 · 3.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.08 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 1.1% | .290 | 3.66 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 71 | +0.58 | 3.08 | 124 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 61 | 26.5% | 11.8% | 1.04 | 4.19 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |