Garrett Hawkins

P El Paso Chihuahuas

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 230 lbs AAA

Overview

AAA40-MANPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%30%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	A+SD	4	4	15	3.60	4.03	22.1%	8.8%	—	K 17.0% · BB 10.1% · FIP 5.33
2025	25	MIX2 levels	45	0	60	1.50	1.75	35.1%	9.6%	—	K 27.4% · BB 10.9% · FIP 2.49
2026	26	MIX2 levels	42	0	54	5.47	4.31	26.6%	14.3%	—	K 22.2% · BB 13.5% · FIP 4.76
2027PROJ	27	MLBSD	20	0	21	4.79	4.79	23.0%	13.4%	-0.1
2028PROJ55% MLB	28	MLBSD	29	0	30	4.79	4.83	22.9%	13.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ68% MLB	29	MLBSD	30	0	31	4.85	4.92	22.8%	13.1%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.8, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsGrant Black (age 27) · Dennis Sarfate (age 27) · Emmanuel Chapman (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.79

FIP4.79

K%23.0%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%9.6%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	7	0	15	62	27	2	1	0%	2.2	29.6%	4.0%	25.6%	2.3%	2.35	2.35	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	7	0	15	62	27	2	1	0%	2.2	43.5%	3.2%	40.3%	1.6%	2.35	0.82	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	93	399	120	30	15	100%	4.4	22.3%	8.8%	13.5%	5.2%	4.74	5.16	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	93	399	120	30	15	100%	4.4	30.1%	7.5%	22.6%	3.8%	4.74	3.58	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	4	4	15	68	15	6	2	100%	3.8	17.0%	10.1%	6.8%	4.3%	3.60	5.33	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	4	4	15	68	15	6	2	100%	3.8	22.1%	8.8%	13.2%	2.9%	3.60	4.03	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	60	228	80	22	1	0%	1.3	27.4%	10.9%	16.5%	0.6%	1.50	2.49	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	60	228	80	22	1	0%	1.3	27.4%	10.9%	16.5%	0.6%	1.50	2.49	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	60	228	80	22	1	0%	1.3	35.1%	9.6%	25.4%	0.4%	1.50	1.75	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	54	244	65	35	7	0%	1.3	22.2%	13.5%	8.7%	3.3%	5.47	4.76	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	54	244	65	35	7	0%	1.3	22.2%	13.5%	8.7%	3.3%	5.47	4.76	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	54	244	65	35	7	0%	1.3	26.6%	14.3%	12.3%	2.9%	5.47	4.31	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	SD	20	0	21	89	20	12	3	0%	1.1	23.0%	13.4%	9.6%	2.8%	4.79	4.79	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	SD	52	0	54	228	52	30	7	0%	1.0	22.9%	13.2%	9.8%	3.0%	4.79	4.83	-0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	SD	44	0	46	194	44	25	6	0%	1.0	22.8%	13.1%	9.7%	3.1%	4.85	4.92	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	SD	29	0	30	127	29	17	4	0%	1.0	22.9%	13.2%	9.8%	3.0%	4.79	4.83	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	SD	30	0	31	131	30	17	4	0%	1.0	22.8%	13.1%	9.7%	3.1%	4.85	4.92	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		58	0	61	256	59	34	8	0%	1.0	22.8%	13.1%	9.7%	3.0%	4.82	4.50	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	194	112	26	0%	1.1	22.8%	13.1%	9.7%	3.0%	4.82	4.50	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		119	25	238	1001	236	102	34	21%	2.0	23.5%	10.2%	13.3%	3.4%	3.86	4.29	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		100	21	200	842	198	86	29	21%	2.0	23.5%	10.2%	13.3%	3.4%	3.86	4.29	-0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 31 IPFIP 4.93 → 5.05 (+0.11)K% 20.7% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.69%	—	×0.860	17.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.31%	—	×0.900	17.38%
HR / BF /BF	2.07%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.28%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.93 → 5.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AASan Antonio Missions · 23 IPFIP 3.23 → 4.33 (+1.10)K% 35.4% → 28.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.35%	—	×0.810	28.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.07%	—	×1.100	7.78%
HR / BF /BF	4.04%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.85%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.23 → 4.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 44 IPFIP 1.33 → 2.31 (+0.98)K% 37.0% → 28.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.04%	—	×0.770	28.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.02%	—	×1.150	9.23%
HR / BF /BF	0.62%	÷0.941	×1.250	0.82%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 1.33 → 2.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASan Antonio Missions · 16 IPFIP 2.27 → 2.93 (+0.66)K% 30.3% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.30%	—	×0.810	24.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.64%	—	×1.100	15.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.950	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.27 → 2.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 15 IPFIP 3.97 → 5.33 (+1.36)K% 22.1% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.06%	—	×0.770	16.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.82%	—	×1.150	10.15%
HR / BF /BF	2.94%	÷0.848	×1.250	4.34%

Result: FIP 3.97 → 5.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ALake Elsinore Storm · 78 IPFIP 2.59 → 4.06 (+1.47)K% 33.6% → 24.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.64%	—	×0.740	24.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.23%	—	×1.180	7.35%
HR / BF /BF	2.80%	÷0.938	×1.300	3.88%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 2.59 → 4.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 15 IPFIP 7.65 → 9.70 (+2.06)K% 15.4% → 11.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.38%	—	×0.770	11.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.82%	—	×1.150	14.74%
HR / BF /BF	7.69%	÷0.920	×1.250	10.45%

Result: FIP 7.65 → 9.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Padres · 15 IPFIP 0.72 → 2.35 (+1.63)K% 43.5% → 29.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	43.55%	—	×0.680	29.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.23%	—	×1.250	4.03%
HR / BF /BF	1.61%	÷1.000	×1.400	2.26%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 0.72 → 2.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Garrett Hawkins (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.8%	—	4.87	22.9%	9.7%	100	+0.08	—	—	—
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	85
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	84
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	82
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	82
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	81
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	81
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	81
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	81
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	81
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	81
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	26.4%	14.3%	2.3%	.274	4.80	21.7%	10.2%	69	+0.87	3.84	181	80
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	80
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	80
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	80
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	79
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	79
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	79
Cole Uvila R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	27	SU	4.06	20.4%	13.2%	1.8%	.360	3.16	20.2%	6.3%	44	-0.90	3.16	155	79
Ryan Garton R 2017 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	25.2%	11.3%	2.3%	.252	4.15	23.5%	10.8%	108	+0.48	3.14	307	79
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	22.9%	13.3%	1.14	4.81
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12