Cole Wilcox

P Seattle Mariners

Age 28 RHP 6'5" / 232 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	28	28	144	3.57	3.21	18.3%	7.3%	—	K 15.0% · BB 7.5% · FIP 3.61
2025	26	MIX3 levels	40	1	59	4.10	4.65	24.3%	11.4%	-0.1	K 22.0% · BB 9.7% · FIP 4.24
2026	27	MIX2 levels	40	0	47	4.44	2.84	25.7%	10.9%	1.0	K 24.1% · BB 10.6% · FIP 2.97
2027PROJ	28	MLBSEA	113	0	119	4.38	4.11	24.2%	10.2%	0.6
2028PROJ79% MLB	29	MLBSEA	98	0	103	4.33	4.28	23.4%	10.1%	0.3
2029PROJ84% MLB	30	MLBSEA	89	0	93	4.42	4.49	22.6%	10.2%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo79

K%53

xwOBA vs14

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 1.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 90%

CompsJunior Guerra (age 30) · Sam Lewis (age 27) · Coleman Huntley III (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.38

FIP4.11

K%24.2%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%14.1%

Proj IP164

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 164 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7996.6

Whiff%

p8931.4%

p5322.8%

xwOBA vs

p140.355

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	10	10	44	174	52	5	1	100%	4.4	22.1%	3.4%	18.7%	0.7%	2.03	2.06	—
2021	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	10	10	44	174	52	5	1	100%	4.4	29.9%	2.9%	27.0%	0.6%	2.03	1.39	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	16	69	24	4	1	100%	2.3	34.8%	5.8%	29.0%	1.4%	3.94	1.69	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	16	69	24	4	1	100%	2.3	34.8%	5.8%	29.0%	1.4%	3.94	1.66	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	25	25	107	454	99	44	14	100%	4.3	17.7%	10.7%	7.0%	3.4%	5.23	4.83	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	25	25	107	454	99	44	14	100%	4.3	21.8%	9.7%	12.1%	3.1%	5.23	4.19	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	144	602	110	44	8	100%	5.1	15.0%	7.5%	7.6%	1.5%	3.57	3.61	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	144	602	110	44	8	100%	5.1	15.0%	7.5%	7.6%	1.5%	3.57	3.61	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	144	602	110	44	8	100%	5.1	18.3%	7.3%	11.0%	1.3%	3.57	3.21	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	1	59	263	64	30	10	2%	1.5	22.0%	9.7%	12.3%	3.2%	4.10	4.24	+0.2
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	1	59	263	64	30	10	2%	1.5	22.0%	9.7%	12.3%	3.2%	4.10	4.24	+0.2
2025	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	1	59	263	64	30	10	2%	1.5	24.3%	11.4%	12.9%	3.8%	4.10	4.65	-0.1
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	47	202	52	22	2	0%	1.2	24.1%	10.6%	13.5%	1.0%	4.44	2.97	+0.9
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	47	202	52	22	2	0%	1.2	24.1%	10.6%	13.5%	1.0%	4.44	2.97	+0.9
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	47	202	52	22	2	0%	1.2	25.7%	10.9%	14.9%	1.0%	4.44	2.84	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			24	0	28	135	29	19	2	0%	1.2	21.5%	14.1%	7.4%	1.5%	4.82	3.99	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	SEA	113	0	119	502	122	51	13	0%	1.1	24.2%	10.2%	14.1%	2.5%	4.38	4.11	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	SEA	124	0	130	550	129	56	15	0%	1.0	23.4%	10.1%	13.3%	2.7%	4.33	4.28	+0.4
2029	30	MLB MLE	SEA	105	0	110	466	105	48	14	0%	1.1	22.6%	10.2%	12.4%	2.9%	4.42	4.49	+0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	SEA	98	0	103	435	102	44	12	0%	1.1	23.4%	10.1%	13.3%	2.7%	4.33	4.28	+0.3
2029	30	MLB CTX	SEA	89	0	93	393	89	40	12	0%	1.0	22.6%	10.2%	12.4%	2.9%	4.42	4.49	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		211	0	225	965	220	104	26	0%	1.1	22.8%	10.7%	12.1%	2.6%	4.43	3.98	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		188	0	200	859	196	93	23	0%	1.1	22.8%	10.7%	12.1%	2.6%	4.43	3.98	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		150	71	417	1764	340	150	37	47%	2.8	19.3%	8.5%	10.7%	2.1%	4.02	3.72	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		72	34	200	847	163	72	18	47%	2.8	19.3%	8.5%	10.7%	2.1%	4.02	3.72	+0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAATacoma Rainiers · 20 IPFIP 1.50 → 1.76 (+0.26)K% 30.4% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.38%	—	×0.860	26.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.59%	—	×0.900	6.84%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.50 → 1.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAADurham Bulls · 51 IPFIP 4.52 → 4.24 (−0.28)K% 25.6% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.56%	—	×0.860	21.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.76%	—	×0.900	9.69%
HR / BF /BF	4.04%	÷1.380	×1.100	3.22%

Result: FIP 4.52 → 4.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 7 IPFIP 4.61 → 5.68 (+1.07)K% 21.4% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.43%	—	×0.810	17.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.71%	—	×1.100	11.79%
HR / BF /BF	3.57%	÷0.922	×1.200	4.65%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 84).

Result: FIP 4.61 → 5.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 105 IPFIP 2.80 → 3.31 (+0.51)K% 18.9% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.89%	—	×0.810	15.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.22%	—	×1.100	6.84%
HR / BF /BF	0.92%	÷0.958	×1.200	1.15%

Result: FIP 2.80 → 3.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAADurham Bulls · 39 IPFIP 4.28 → 4.40 (+0.12)K% 16.7% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.67%	—	×0.860	14.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.12%	—	×0.900	9.11%
HR / BF /BF	2.38%	÷1.061	×1.100	2.47%

Result: FIP 4.28 → 4.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 107 IPFIP 4.18 → 4.83 (+0.65)K% 21.8% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.81%	—	×0.810	17.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.69%	—	×1.100	10.66%
HR / BF /BF	3.08%	÷1.087	×1.200	3.40%

Result: FIP 4.18 → 4.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ACharleston RiverDogs · 11 IPFIP 2.07 → 3.36 (+1.30)K% 33.3% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.740	24.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.44%	—	×1.180	5.24%
HR / BF /BF	2.22%	÷0.943	×1.300	3.06%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 2.07 → 3.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Rays · 5 IPFIP 0.99 → 2.27 (+1.28)K% 37.5% → 25.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.50%	—	×0.680	25.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.250	10.42%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.902	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 0.99 → 2.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cole Wilcox (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.11	24.2%	10.2%	2.5%	—	4.38	23.1%	12.9%	240	+0.27	—	—	—
Junior Guerra R 2015 · 3.18 FIP	30	SW	3.18	26.8%	10.3%	1.9%	.269	4.15	20.8%	10.9%	390	+0.97	3.18	646	72
Sam Lewis R 2019 · 3.41 FIP	27	SP-	3.41	21.0%	10.8%	1.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	224	70
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	69
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	67
Nelson Gonzalez R 2018 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.2%	8.2%	4.6%	.311	6.22	16.9%	4.6%	74	+1.19	3.42	258	66
Jose Contreras R 2003 · 3.03 FIP	31	SP-	3.03	24.6%	9.9%	1.4%	.255	4.30	17.9%	9.5%	571	+1.27	2.43	1,279	66
Diego Moreno R 2015 · 2.95 FIP	28	SU	2.95	17.9%	8.1%	0.6%	.257	3.21	21.6%	14.6%	78	+0.26	2.29	187	66
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	65
Mayckol Guaipe R 2019 · 4.18 FIP	28	SW	4.18	26.0%	7.6%	4.2%	.432	—	—	—	—	—	1.88	136	65
Luis Santos R 2019 · 4.31 FIP	28	SU	4.31	22.9%	10.0%	3.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	472	64
Calvin Drummond R 2016 · 3.55 FIP	26	SW	3.55	16.9%	11.1%	0.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	112	63
Ryne Stanek R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	28	SW	4.14	27.2%	11.0%	3.5%	.262	3.39	28.2%	15.7%	123	-0.75	2.96	771	63
Connor Schultz R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	25	SU	3.88	19.7%	5.3%	3.2%	.283	4.02	18.8%	10.4%	156	+0.14	3.53	203	63
Andrew Robinson R 2016 · 3.19 FIP	28	SU	3.19	22.2%	7.9%	1.8%	.247	4.32	23.4%	14.6%	39	+1.13	3.19	160	63
Cody Poteet R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	28	SW	4.79	18.4%	9.6%	3.7%	.244	3.73	21.1%	13.3%	68	-1.06	3.52	619	62
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	62
Casey Sadler R 2018 · 3.95 FIP	28	SW	3.95	16.0%	7.8%	2.2%	.298	3.35	23.2%	16.5%	145	-0.60	2.21	385	62
Dustin Nippert R 2009 · 4.09 FIP	28	SP-	4.09	18.0%	9.7%	2.3%	.271	4.49	17.9%	6.1%	57	+0.40	3.83	268	62
Carlos Torres R 2010 · 4.50 FIP	27	SW	4.50	18.3%	11.3%	2.8%	.438	3.89	20.1%	13.2%	139	-0.61	2.89	604	62
Mitch Lively R 2015 · 3.07 FIP	29	SU	3.07	18.2%	9.0%	0.7%	.204	3.04	19.6%	14.0%	123	-0.03	2.39	158	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	108	23.4%	10.5%	1.01	4.40
Ian Anderson ('25)	1.4	94	22.2%	10.5%	0.99	4.22
Joe Decker ('69-'79, 6 WAR*)	3.5	101	21.4%*	11.8%*	1.04*	4.49*
Jimmy Nelson ('21)	3.3	110	21.8%	8.9%	0.94	4.12
Kyle Wright ('23)	1.4	94	21.9%	9.7%	1.25	4.45
Darrell Jackson ('78-'82, 3 WAR*)	2.1	82	21.0%*	10.4%*	1.05*	4.43*
Bo Belinsky ('62-'70, -0 WAR*)	3.3	133	21.2%*	11.6%*	1.01*	4.96*