Cole Wilcox
P
Seattle Mariners
Age 27
RHP
6'5" / 232 lbs
MLB
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 147 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111101vR 92
ERA4.01
FIP4.01
K%19.9%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%9.7%
ROS IP147
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 183 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7996.6
Whiff%
p8130.1%
K%
p3219.5%
xwOBA vs
p100.389
CH (9%)
SI (19%)
SL (48%)
FB-2.6 (43%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 10 | 10 | 44 | 174 | 52 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 4.4 | 22.1% | 3.4% | 18.7% | 0.7% | 2.03 | 2.05 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 10 | 10 | 44 | 174 | 52 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 4.4 | 29.9% | 2.9% | 27.0% | 0.6% | 2.03 | 1.39 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 7 | 16 | 69 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 2.3 | 34.8% | 5.8% | 29.0% | 1.4% | 3.94 | 1.69 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 7 | 16 | 69 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 2.3 | 34.8% | 5.8% | 29.0% | 1.4% | 3.94 | 1.66 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 25 | 25 | 107 | 454 | 99 | 44 | 14 | 100% | 4.3 | 17.7% | 10.7% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 5.23 | 4.69 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 25 | 25 | 107 | 454 | 99 | 44 | 14 | 100% | 4.3 | 21.8% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 5.23 | 4.19 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 144 | 602 | 110 | 44 | 8 | 100% | 5.1 | 15.1% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 1.5% | 3.57 | 3.66 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 144 | 602 | 110 | 44 | 8 | 100% | 5.1 | 18.3% | 7.3% | 11.0% | 1.3% | 3.57 | 3.21 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 1 | 59 | 263 | 64 | 30 | 10 | 2% | 1.5 | 22.5% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 2.5% | 4.10 | 4.02 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 1 | 59 | 263 | 64 | 30 | 10 | 2% | 1.5 | 24.3% | 11.4% | 12.9% | 3.8% | 4.10 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 31 | 0 | 37 | 161 | 40 | 18 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.1% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 0.6% | 4.66 | 2.93 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SEA | 140 | 0 | 147 | 619 | 124 | 64 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 2.3% | 4.01 | 4.01 | +2.4 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SEA | 140 | 0 | 147 | 621 | 124 | 64 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 2.3% | 4.01 | 4.01 | +2.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 183 | 780 | 164 | 82 | 16 | — | — | 21.0% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 2.0% | 4.14 | 3.79 | +3.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 164 | 691 | 164 | 82 | 16 | — | — | 23.7% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 2.2% | 4.63 | 3.83 | +3.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 151 | 0 | 159 | 670 | 128 | 72 | 17 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.1% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 2.6% | 4.60 | 4.63 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 144 | 0 | 152 | 641 | 123 | 69 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.1% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 4.67 | 4.73 | +1.2 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 144 | 0 | 151 | 638 | 122 | 69 | 16 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 2.6% | 4.60 | 4.63 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 137 | 0 | 144 | 608 | 116 | 65 | 17 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.1% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 4.67 | 4.73 | +1.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 436 | 0 | 460 | 1959 | 379 | 213 | 49 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.3% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 2.5% | 4.47 | 4.20 | +6.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 852 | 165 | 93 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.3% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 2.5% | 4.47 | 4.20 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 141 | 71 | 407 | 1723 | 330 | 154 | 33 | 50% | 2.9 | 19.2% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 1.9% | 4.03 | 3.68 | +8.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 69 | 35 | 200 | 847 | 162 | 76 | 16 | 50% | 2.9 | 19.2% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 1.9% | 4.03 | 3.68 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cole Wilcox (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 18.8% | 10.1% | 2.6% | — | 4.68 | 19.1% | 8.4% | 310 | +0.09 | — | — | — |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 71 |
| Calvin Drummond R 2025 · 3.51 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.51 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 0.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 112 | 70 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2025 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 167 | 69 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 69 |
| Logan Taylor R 2025 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.78 | 17.2% | 12.1% | 2.9% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 300 | 69 |
| Sam Lewis R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.43 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.3% | .246 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 224 | 68 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 68 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2027 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 68 |
| Jake Stinnett R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.07 | 21.1% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 356 | 67 |
| Fernando Cruz R 2024 · 5.41 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.41 | 15.6% | 12.2% | 3.8% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.52 | 356 | 67 |
| Dustin Antolin R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.36 | 16.2% | 14.4% | 1.5% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.90 | 159 | 67 |
| Linder Castro R 2025 · 4.55 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.55 | 18.9% | 10.7% | 3.1% | .305 | 5.45 | 21.1% | 6.3% | 62 | +0.90 | 4.27 | 279 | 66 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.33 | 16.9% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .371 | 4.86 | 17.5% | 5.7% | 37 | +0.53 | 3.07 | 133 | 66 |
| Andres Santiago R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.27 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .384 | 5.45 | 13.1% | 3.2% | 159 | +1.18 | 3.74 | 291 | 65 |
| Nick Hull R 2025 · 3.93 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.93 | 19.3% | 8.2% | 2.6% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 268 | 65 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 12.5% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .346 | 4.97 | 14.0% | 5.3% | 138 | +0.16 | 4.54 | 224 | 65 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 65 |
| Lucas Erceg R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.8% | 14.0% | 2.5% | .339 | 2.99 | 24.6% | 15.7% | 193 | -1.52 | 2.09 | 339 | 65 |
| Taylor Grover R 2025 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 65 |
| Jacob Webb R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.56 | 21.0% | 15.2% | 2.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 252 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 158 | 19.0% | 10.5% | 1.02 | 4.62 |
| Edinson Volquez ('17) | 3 | 161 | 17.9% | 9.6% | 0.88 | 4.39 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Andrew Cashner ('19) | 5 | 157 | 16.7% | 9.2% | 1.11 | 4.54 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Jaime García ('18) | 4 | 135 | 19.6% | 8.5% | 1.05 | 4.23 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |