Cole Wilcox
P
Seattle Mariners
+0.2
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 27
RHP
6'5" / 232 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.7 · 2027
ERA4.52
FIP4.52
xFIP3.91
SIERA3.64
K%20.1%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%10.4%
IP84
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2027
K†5055
FB Velo
p7796.4
Whiff%
p8831.3%
K%
p6825.5%
xwOBA vs
p100.422
CH (7%)
SI (20%)
SL (48%)
FB-2.6 (45%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 10 | 10 | 44 | 174 | 52 | 5 | 1 | 22.1% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 2.03 | 2.06 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | 7 | 7 | 16 | 69 | 24 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.94 | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 25 | 25 | 107 | 454 | 99 | 44 | 14 | 17.7% | 10.7% | 3.5% | 5.23 | 4.87 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 28 | 28 | 144 | 602 | 110 | 44 | 8 | 15.1% | 7.9% | 1.5% | 3.57 | 3.65 | +2.7 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 40 | 1 | 59 | 263 | 64 | 30 | 10 | 22.5% | 11.3% | 3.2% | 4.10 | 4.37 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 6 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 9 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.91 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SEA | 26 | — | 26 | 112 | 22 | 11 | 3 | 20.1% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 34 | 144 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.60 | 3.54 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 15 | 15 | 85 | 359 | 76 | 33 | 10 | 21.2% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.40 | 4.41 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 15 | 15 | 83 | 351 | 74 | 32 | 10 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.44 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 15 | 15 | 81 | 341 | 72 | 32 | 10 | 21.0% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.50 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 14 | 14 | 78 | 329 | 75 | 28 | 10 | 22.8% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.30 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 14 | 14 | 75 | 316 | 71 | 27 | 10 | 22.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.37 | 4.38 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 71 | 301 | 67 | 27 | 10 | 22.2% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.48 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 68 | 286 | 63 | 26 | 9 | 21.9% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 4.53 | 4.59 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 64 | 270 | 58 | 25 | 9 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 4.64 | 4.71 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | SEA | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 53 | 24 | 9 | 21.1% | 9.6% | 3.5% | 4.76 | 4.84 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 116 | 71 | 377 | 1594 | 302 | 138 | 36 | 18.9% | 8.6% | 2.3% | 3.98 | 3.85 | +6.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 38 | 200 | 845 | 160 | 73 | 19 | 18.9% | 8.6% | 2.3% | 3.98 | 3.85 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cole Wilcox (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 20.1% | 9.7% | 2.8% | — | 4.45 | 21.1% | 11.9% | 249 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| Rob Scahill R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.75 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .288 | 3.35 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.40 | 3.08 | 201 | 79 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 79 |
| Austin Adams R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.51 | 18.6% | 9.5% | 1.4% | .331 | 3.28 | 21.1% | 15.0% | 56 | -0.23 | 3.28 | 162 | 77 |
| David Holman R 2026 · 5.48 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.48 | 15.6% | 12.7% | 3.8% | .324 | 5.48 | 9.6% | 0.5% | 107 | -0.00 | 5.37 | 129 | 77 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.12 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 3.0% | .339 | 3.39 | 23.5% | 12.8% | 29 | -0.73 | 3.11 | 166 | 76 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.47 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | -0.13 | 3.16 | 254 | 76 |
| Adrian Garza R 2026 · 5.48 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.48 | 14.9% | 10.5% | 4.2% | .360 | 4.17 | 13.1% | 6.5% | 84 | -1.31 | 3.95 | 229 | 75 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 17.9% | 12.5% | 3.1% | .450 | 3.38 | 18.0% | 9.1% | 85 | -1.47 | 3.01 | 115 | 75 |
| Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.34 | 18.1% | 13.9% | 1.8% | .338 | 4.29 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 113 | -0.05 | 4.00 | 138 | 75 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2029 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 75 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 75 |
| Michael Blazek R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.97 | 17.9% | 11.9% | 3.4% | .336 | 4.43 | 17.5% | 8.0% | 124 | -0.54 | 3.06 | 221 | 74 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 74 |
| Bayden Root R 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.81 | 16.6% | 9.8% | 1.6% | .257 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 102 | 74 |
| Kevin Shackelford R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.67 | 14.3% | 8.0% | 1.4% | .246 | 3.16 | 28.0% | 18.9% | 78 | -0.51 | 3.16 | 161 | 74 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 74 |
| Aroni Nina R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.46 | 14.1% | 7.9% | 1.0% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 115 | 74 |
| Tucker Healy R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.28 | 15.6% | 11.5% | 1.9% | .321 | 5.21 | 19.2% | 8.7% | 24 | +0.93 | 2.83 | 174 | 74 |
| Jose Casilla R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.65 | 13.0% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 104 | 74 |
| Tyler Ferguson R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.21 | 19.8% | 9.1% | 3.0% | .231 | 3.54 | 24.4% | 10.1% | 209 | -0.67 | 2.54 | 369 | 74 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2026
Service 0.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.2M | +0.2 | $0.8M | +$0.6M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.8M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $4M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $5M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $10M | $15M | +$6M | ||