Cole Wilcox — OGILVIE

Cole Wilcox P Seattle Mariners

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 232 lbs MLB ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 ROS PROJECTION47 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110101vR 93

ERA4.02

FIP4.02

K%20.5%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%11.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7996.6

Whiff%

p8931.4%

p5322.8%

xwOBA vs

p140.355

CH (12%)

SI (16%)

SL (44%)

FB-2.6 (44%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	10	10	44	174	52	5	1	100%	4.4	22.1%	3.4%	18.7%	0.7%	2.03	2.06	—
2021	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	10	10	44	174	52	5	1	100%	4.4	29.9%	2.9%	27.0%	0.6%	2.03	1.39	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	16	69	24	4	1	100%	2.3	34.8%	5.8%	29.0%	1.4%	3.94	1.69	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	16	69	24	4	1	100%	2.3	34.8%	5.8%	29.0%	1.4%	3.94	1.66	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	25	25	107	454	99	44	14	100%	4.3	17.7%	10.7%	7.0%	3.4%	5.23	4.83	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	25	25	107	454	99	44	14	100%	4.3	17.7%	10.7%	7.0%	3.4%	5.23	4.83	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	25	25	107	454	99	44	14	100%	4.3	21.8%	9.7%	12.1%	3.1%	5.23	4.19	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	144	602	110	44	8	100%	5.1	14.9%	7.5%	7.4%	1.5%	3.57	3.62	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	144	602	110	44	8	100%	5.1	14.9%	7.5%	7.4%	1.5%	3.57	3.62	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	144	602	110	44	8	100%	5.1	18.3%	7.3%	11.0%	1.3%	3.57	3.21	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	1	59	263	64	30	10	2%	1.5	21.2%	9.7%	11.5%	3.2%	4.10	4.30	+0.2
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	1	59	263	64	30	10	2%	1.5	21.2%	9.7%	11.5%	3.2%	4.10	4.30	+0.2
2025	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	1	59	263	64	30	10	2%	1.5	24.3%	11.4%	12.9%	3.8%	4.10	4.65	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			24	0	28	135	29	19	2	0%	1.2	21.5%	14.1%	7.4%	1.5%	4.82	3.99	+0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	40	0	47	202	52	22	2	0%	1.2	23.7%	10.6%	13.1%	1.0%	4.44	3.00	+0.9
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	40	0	47	202	52	22	2	0%	1.2	23.7%	10.6%	13.1%	1.0%	4.44	3.00	+0.9
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	SEA	17	0	20	79	24	6	0	0%	1.2	30.4%	7.6%	22.8%	0.0%	5.03	1.50	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	SEA	23	0	27	123	28	16	2	0%	1.2	22.8%	13.0%	9.8%	1.6%	4.00	3.72	+0.3
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	SEA	23	0	27	123	28	16	2	0%	1.2	22.8%	13.0%	9.8%	1.6%	4.00	3.72	+0.3
ROS	27	MLB MLE	SEA	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	20.5%	9.4%	11.1%	2.7%	4.02	4.02	+0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	SEA	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	20.5%	9.4%	11.1%	2.7%	4.02	4.02	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	SEA	—	—	53	227	57	24	3	—	—	25.2%	10.7%	14.4%	1.2%	4.39	3.11	+0.9
FULL	27	MLB A+C	SEA	—	—	33	139	57	24	3	—	—	41.1%	17.5%	23.6%	1.9%	7.02	2.90	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	SEA	151	0	159	670	134	67	18	0%	1.1	20.0%	9.9%	10.0%	2.7%	4.49	4.53	+0.0
2028	29	MLB MLE	SEA	144	0	152	641	127	64	18	0%	1.1	19.9%	10.0%	9.9%	2.9%	4.57	4.64	-0.2
2029	30	MLB MLE	SEA	136	0	143	602	118	61	18	0%	1.0	19.6%	10.2%	9.5%	3.1%	4.70	4.79	-0.4
2027	28	MLB CTX	SEA	144	0	151	638	127	63	17	0%	1.0	20.0%	9.9%	10.0%	2.7%	4.49	4.53	+0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	SEA	137	0	144	608	121	61	17	0%	1.1	19.9%	10.0%	9.9%	2.9%	4.57	4.64	-0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	SEA	129	0	135	570	112	58	17	0%	1.0	19.6%	10.2%	9.5%	3.1%	4.70	4.79	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		440	0	464	1977	395	204	55	0%	1.1	20.0%	10.3%	9.7%	2.8%	4.59	4.24	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		189	0	200	852	170	88	24	0%	1.1	20.0%	10.3%	9.7%	2.8%	4.59	4.24	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		150	71	417	1764	336	150	37	47%	2.8	19.1%	8.5%	10.5%	2.1%	4.02	3.73	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		72	34	200	847	161	72	18	47%	2.8	19.1%	8.5%	10.5%	2.1%	4.02	3.73	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cole Wilcox (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	18.7%	9.0%	2.8%	—	4.65	19.8%	9.8%	453	+0.09	—	—	—
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	70
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	69
Calvin Drummond R 2016 · 3.55 FIP	26	SW	3.55	16.9%	11.1%	0.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	112	69
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	69
Esmil Rogers R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	29	SW	3.51	18.5%	8.9%	1.6%	.348	2.86	21.7%	17.9%	40	-0.65	2.86	199	68
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	68
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	68
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	68
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	67
Reinier Roibal R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	27	SW	4.37	16.9%	7.1%	3.3%	.371	4.91	17.5%	5.7%	37	+0.54	3.11	133	67
Sam Lewis R 2019 · 3.41 FIP	27	SP-	3.41	21.0%	10.8%	1.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	224	67
Linder Castro R 2017 · 4.63 FIP	26	SW	4.63	18.9%	10.7%	3.2%	.305	5.68	21.1%	6.3%	62	+1.05	4.23	279	67
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	66
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	66
Heath Hembree R 2016 · 3.74 FIP	27	SU	3.74	21.1%	7.2%	2.8%	.292	4.03	27.3%	18.8%	162	+0.29	2.58	382	66
Lucas Erceg R 2022 · 4.48 FIP	27	SU	4.48	20.8%	14.0%	2.5%	.339	2.96	24.5%	15.8%	193	-1.52	2.10	346	66
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	66
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	66
Austin Adams R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	18.6%	9.5%	1.4%	.331	3.40	21.1%	15.0%	56	-0.11	3.40	162	66
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	151	19.5%	9.8%	1.10	4.58
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01