Dario Gardea prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Dario Gardea P West Michigan Whitecaps

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.80

FIP4.80

K%21.5%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%9.8%

ROS IP35

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	12	9	48	186	51	13	2	75%	4.0	18.6%	8.7%	9.9%	1.5%	2.05	3.46	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 1	12	9	48	186	51	13	2	75%	4.0	27.4%	7.0%	20.4%	1.1%	2.05	2.33	—
2019	20	ROK MLE	GCL Tigers West	8	6	31	132	35	8	1	75%	3.8	18.0%	7.6%	10.5%	1.1%	3.82	3.12	—
2019	20	ROK RAW	GCL Tigers West	8	6	31	132	35	8	1	75%	3.8	26.5%	6.1%	20.5%	0.8%	3.82	2.02	—
2021	22	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	9	1	19	78	23	4	2	11%	2.1	21.8%	6.1%	15.8%	3.6%	3.26	3.98	—
2021	22	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	9	1	19	78	23	4	2	11%	2.1	29.5%	5.1%	24.4%	2.6%	3.26	2.69	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	47	0	58	243	61	14	7	0%	1.2	19.3%	6.5%	12.8%	4.0%	3.43	4.50	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	47	0	58	243	61	14	7	0%	1.2	25.1%	5.8%	19.3%	2.9%	3.43	3.29	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	50	238	56	31	6	0%	1.4	18.4%	14.7%	3.7%	3.2%	7.15	5.18	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	50	238	56	31	6	0%	1.4	18.4%	14.7%	3.7%	3.2%	7.15	5.18	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	50	238	56	31	6	0%	1.4	23.5%	13.0%	10.5%	2.5%	7.15	4.27	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	DET	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.5%	11.7%	9.8%	3.0%	4.80	4.80	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	DET	32	0	34	144	31	17	4	0%	1.1	21.6%	11.6%	10.0%	3.1%	4.80	4.84	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	DET	11	0	12	51	11	6	2	0%	1.1	21.6%	11.6%	10.0%	3.1%	4.80	4.84	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	12	53	11	6	2	0%	1.0	21.6%	11.6%	10.0%	3.1%	4.80	4.46	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	96	32	0%	1.1	21.6%	11.6%	10.0%	3.1%	4.80	4.46	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		113	16	206	877	166	82	24	14%	1.8	19.0%	9.3%	9.6%	2.8%	4.06	4.21	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		110	16	200	850	161	79	24	14%	1.8	19.0%	9.3%	9.6%	2.8%	4.06	4.21	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dario Gardea (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.80	21.5%	11.7%	3.0%	—	4.84	21.6%	10.0%	34	+0.04	—	—	—
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	85
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	84
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	83
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	82
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	82
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	81
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	81
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	81
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	81
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	81
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	81
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	81
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	81
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	81
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	80
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	80
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	80
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	79
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	79
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	35	21.5%	11.6%	1.19	4.80
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16