Matthew Clayton — OGILVIE

Matthew ClaytonC Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 27 R/R 5'11" / 185 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 76 proj PA

wRC+†47

AVG/OBP/SLG.163 / .250 / .256

PA7

HR0

K%30

BB%7

ISO94

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	25	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	16	15	3	0	0	1	1	6	0	0	1	200	250	400	650	200	250	38	6	287	80	-0	-0	—	—	+0	-0.0
2024	25	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	119	93	26	5	0	2	12	24	13	0	1	280	432	398	830	118	353	20	10	384	146	+7	-0	—	—	+3	0.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	25	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	16	15	2	0	0	1	1	8	0	0	1	133	188	333	521	200	223	50	6	176	5	-2	-0	—	—	+0	-0.2
2024	25	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	119	96	21	4	0	2	9	34	13	0	1	219	364	323	687	104	309	29	8	315	99	-0	-0	—	—	+3	0.2
2024	25	A MLE	2 teams	—	135	111	22	4	0	2	10	43	13	0	2	198	336	288	624	90	299	32	7	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	A RAW	2 teams	—	135	108	29	5	0	3	13	30	13	0	2	269	410	398	809	130	342	22	10	373	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	A MLE	2 teams	—	135	111	22	4	0	2	10	43	13	0	2	198	336	288	624	90	299	32	7	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	25	A MLE	2 teams	—	135	111	22	4	0	2	10	43	13	0	2	198	336	288	624	90	299	32	7	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	27	MLB MLE	MIN	0%	7	7	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	143	143	143	286		222	29	0	238	47	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	MIN	26%	116	102	17	3	0	2	9	34	4	1	0	167	261	255	516	88	229	29	8	246	52	-7	+0	-1	+2	+3	-0.3
2027	28	MLB CTX	MIN	26%	30	27	5	1	0	1	2	9	1	0	0	185	267	333	600	148	229	30	7	223	52	-2	+0	-0	+1	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	30	27	5	1	0	1	2	9	1	0	0	185	267	333	600	148	235	30	7	223	71	-2	+0	-0	+1	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	109	22	0	22	43	195	22	0	0	186	268	337	604	150	236	30	7	223	71	-37	+0	-4	+12	+14	-1.5
Career	—	MLE		—	258	220	40	7	0	4	19	79	17	1	2	182	297	268	565	86	259	31	7	273	71	-7	+0	-1	+2	+3	-0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	554	101	18	0	10	48	199	43	3	5	182	298	269	567	87	260	31	7	273	71	-37	+1	-4	+12	+14	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matthew Clayton (OGILVIE)	27	—	—	—	—	163/250/256	93	222	1	1	30%	7%	47	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Mike Salvatore 2023 · A	26	32	42→40	49→45	41	168/229/263	95	238	11	5	34%	7%	38	-3.2	192/259/282	90	264	8	8	28%	8%	54	-2.0	175/250/251	77	232	6	7	26%	9%	40	-1.1
✕Joe Hudson 2018 · AA	27	36	38→45	46→40	45	178/242/259	81	242	5	3	28%	8%	42	-2.9	201/257/311	110	284	11	4	32%	7%	60	-1.6	175/280/306	130	256	18	8	36%	11%	67	-0.3
✕Christian Kelley 2021 · AAA	27	38	42→40	48→30	40	191/248/295	104	256	10	5	29%	6%	53	-2.1	228/293/328	100	322	8	8	29%	8%	77	-0.3	245/316/306	61	355	3	0	29%	9%	80	-0.0
✕McCarthy Tatum 2023 · AA	27	36→25	44→50	49→50	35	186/241/304	118	277	12	9	36%	5%	53	-2.1	214/275/326	112	297	10	10	30%	5%	70	-0.8	213/284/304	91	290	6	9	26%	4%	67	-0.3
✕Jake Lowery 2017 · AA	27	37	42→45	47→30	44	184/253/289	105	259	9	5	32%	8%	54	-2.0	195/267/298	103	310	9	6	37%	9%	61	-1.5	127/205/187	61	257	4	0	48%	9%	12	-1.1
✕Jake Means 2023 · AA	27	35→32	46→45	51→45	43	183/260/311	127	264	14	9	35%	8%	62	-1.4	186/255/300	114	261	13	10	32%	8%	57	-1.8	133/209/225	92	172	14	8	32%	7%	22	-1.9
✕Mark Thomas 2015 · AA	27	34→41	45	46→45	36	180/225/303	123	249	13	5	33%	5%	47	-2.6	178/238/293	115	276	11	7	37%	6%	49	-2.4	137/196/248	112	199	9	6	35%	6%	21	-1.6
✕Caleb Hamilton 2022 · AAA	27	36	44→45	47→45	44	181/260/291	111	272	12	9	36%	9%	57	-1.8	177/263/303	126	271	15	6	38%	10%	61	-1.5	141/235/256	115	206	16	3	39%	10%	39	-1.0
✕Connor Justus 2021 · AA	26	37→38	37→40	43→45	44	179/255/251	73	251	5	8	29%	7%	47	-2.6	194/257/270	76	290	5	7	32%	7%	51	-2.3	168/234/218	51	258	3	3	33%	7%	28	-2.1
✕Hamlet Marte 2021 · AA	27	40	42→45	44→45	39	197/254/295	99	296	10	6	35%	7%	55	-1.9	198/255/294	96	327	9	8	39%	7%	55	-1.9	157/217/238	81	251	10	4	40%	6%	26	-0.8
✕Connor Hoover 2023 · AA	27	34→30	46→50	50	44	180/256/309	130	256	14	12	34%	9%	60	-1.6	194/270/319	125	275	14	12	33%	8%	68	-1.0	163/251/289	126	221	17	12	33%	9%	52	-1.1
✕Camden Duzenack 2021 · AA	26	35→36	46→50	48→50	39	184/244/306	122	245	15	10	31%	6%	55	-2.0	208/254/339	131	279	15	10	30%	5%	65	-1.2	211/259/339	128	274	14	10	28%	5%	64	-0.6
✕Grant Koch 2023 · AA	26	35	42→45	44→30	42	181/252/282	100	260	11	4	33%	7%	52	-2.2	203/258/296	93	311	9	4	35%	6%	57	-1.8	191/240/272	81	294	9	0	36%	5%	41	-0.8
✕Ryan Jorgensen 2007 · AAA	28	38	43→45	48→30	43	194/259/298	104	257	12	6	29%	7%	58	-1.7	211/261/323	112	273	12	5	26%	6%	64	-1.3	207/251/312	105	265	11	1	25%	5%	55	-0.8
✕Connor Kaiser 2022 · AA	25	37	43→45	47→50	44	189/257/298	109	258	11	5	31%	8%	57	-1.8	192/267/306	114	292	12	14	36%	9%	63	-1.3	172/260/273	101	275	11	16	38%	10%	51	-1.1
✕Matt Whatley 2023 · AAA	27	40→38	40	42→50	41	200/256/286	87	277	9	9	30%	7%	54	-2.0	188/252/288	100	262	11	11	31%	7%	53	-2.1	153/225/238	85	211	12	11	32%	7%	30	-1.3
✕Seaver Whalen 2021 · A	26	40	40→50	48→50	40	197/266/289	91	267	8	6	28%	5%	59	-1.6	206/275/328	122	265	12	10	26%	4%	72	-0.7	172/249/306	133	210	14	10	25%	3%	57	-0.7
✕Rogelio Noris 2017 · AAA	27	39→31	43→45	47→45	34	198/237/298	100	267	12	7	31%	3%	49	-2.4	219/259/338	119	278	14	8	26%	4%	67	-1.1	222/252/336	114	267	15	4	23%	3%	61	-0.6
✕Dave Wallace 2007 · AA	27	37	45	45→40	42	192/267/316	124	265	14	7	32%	7%	66	-1.1	194/266/308	114	266	13	5	30%	8%	63	-1.3	161/240/262	100	217	13	0	31%	8%	42	-0.9
✕Jorge Saez 2017 · AA	26	38	45	44→30	41	196/255/316	120	274	13	4	33%	7%	60	-1.6	208/274/335	127	292	16	5	32%	8%	72	-0.7	190/265/307	117	260	16	2	32%	9%	62	-0.4