Ethan Lindow prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Ethan Lindow P Arkansas Travelers

Age 27 LHP 6'3" / 180 lbs AA peak 0.4 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 66 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109117vR 125

ERA4.86

FIP4.86

K%19.2%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%9.6%

ROS IP67

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	18	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies	8	8	28	121	34	12	2	100%	3.5	19.1%	12.4%	6.7%	2.3%	4.55	4.33	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies	8	8	28	121	34	12	2	100%	3.5	28.1%	9.9%	18.2%	1.7%	4.55	2.88	—
2019	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	16	111	448	119	22	4	62%	4.3	19.8%	5.8%	14.0%	1.4%	2.52	2.95	—
2019	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	16	111	448	119	22	4	62%	4.3	26.6%	4.9%	21.7%	0.9%	2.52	2.02	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	15	85	350	82	22	16	83%	4.7	18.3%	7.1%	11.2%	5.2%	3.81	5.30	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	15	85	350	82	22	16	83%	4.7	23.4%	6.3%	17.1%	4.6%	3.81	4.39	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	19	117	487	98	30	12	70%	4.3	16.0%	6.8%	9.2%	2.8%	3.70	4.16	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	19	117	487	98	30	12	70%	4.3	20.1%	6.2%	14.0%	2.5%	3.70	3.53	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	23	17	95	416	81	37	18	74%	4.1	15.8%	9.8%	6.0%	6.1%	4.91	6.35	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	23	17	95	416	81	37	18	74%	4.1	15.8%	9.8%	6.0%	6.1%	4.91	6.35	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	23	17	95	416	81	37	18	74%	4.1	19.5%	8.9%	10.6%	4.3%	4.91	5.02	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.2%	9.6%	9.6%	3.3%	4.86	4.86	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	SEA	11	11	65	273	53	26	9	100%	5.9	19.5%	9.7%	9.8%	3.3%	4.85	4.89	+0.0
2028	29	MLB MLE	SEA	10	10	62	261	51	26	9	100%	6.2	19.5%	9.8%	9.7%	3.5%	4.91	4.97	-0.0
2027	28	MLB CTX	SEA	4	4	24	101	20	10	3	100%	6.0	19.5%	9.7%	9.8%	3.3%	4.85	4.89	+0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	SEA	6	6	34	144	28	14	5	100%	5.7	19.5%	9.8%	9.7%	3.5%	4.91	4.97	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	10	59	248	48	24	8	100%	5.9	19.5%	9.8%	9.7%	3.4%	4.89	4.56	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	164	82	27	100%	6.0	19.5%	9.8%	9.7%	3.4%	4.89	4.56	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		102	75	435	1822	319	140	66	74%	4.3	17.5%	7.7%	9.9%	3.6%	3.74	4.59	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	34	200	837	147	64	31	74%	4.3	17.5%	7.7%	9.9%	3.6%	3.74	4.59	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ethan Lindow (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	19.2%	9.6%	3.3%	—	4.93	19.5%	9.7%	126	+0.07	—	—	—
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	80
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.34	16.7%	9.5%	356	-0.53	3.68	579	79
Eric DuBose L 2003 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP-	3.92	14.4%	7.5%	2.0%	.233	5.49	13.7%	0.4%	104	+1.57	3.92	178	78
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	78
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	77
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	76
Brad Mills L 2011 · 5.37 FIP	26	SP-	5.37	19.8%	12.1%	4.4%	.328	5.61	18.8%	7.9%	21	+0.24	4.22	243	76
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	76
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	75
Nick Additon L 2015 · 3.73 FIP	27	SP-	3.73	14.0%	7.9%	1.5%	.307	4.15	14.4%	7.1%	106	+0.42	3.13	217	74
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	74
Alex Troop L 2023 · 5.03 FIP	27	SP-	5.03	17.8%	10.9%	3.7%	.275	5.10	17.3%	10.5%	43	+0.07	2.93	379	74
John Michael Bertrand L 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	14.8%	8.1%	1.5%	.294	4.33	14.2%	5.3%	345	+0.62	3.71	463	74
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	74
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	73
Matt Lujan L 2016 · 5.05 FIP	27	SP	5.05	18.5%	11.3%	3.8%	.319	4.69	14.3%	7.9%	70	-0.36	4.06	227	72
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	72
Avery Weems L 2022 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	21.3%	8.6%	4.5%	.323	5.13	20.5%	12.3%	38	+0.26	2.46	227	72
Luis Ysla L 2019 · 5.78 FIP	27	SP-	5.78	18.0%	14.4%	4.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	378	71
Jared Koenig L 2021 · 5.11 FIP	27	SP	5.11	16.0%	9.4%	4.0%	.270	3.78	20.1%	12.4%	267	-1.33	2.79	475	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	64	19.4%	9.7%	1.29	4.87
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Justin Grimm ('22)	1.9	75	23.0%	10.1%	1.17	5.10
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
John Johnstone ('00)	1.4	56	19.4%	9.5%	1.23	4.01
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78