Karlos Morales
P
Wisconsin Timber Rattlers
+0.2
WAR
Age 26
LHP
6'3" / 170 lbs
A+
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.42
FIP4.42
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.1%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%13.1%
IP40
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | AZL Brewers | 5 | 1 | 10 | 47 | 9 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 8.38 | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Brewers | 10 | 2 | 29 | 157 | 25 | 20 | 1 | 10.8% | 15.9% | 0.9% | 8.28 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | AZL Brewers Blue | 7 | 4 | 11 | 57 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 9.5% | 17.5% | 4.9% | 10.64 | 7.21 | -0.3 |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | ACL Brewers Blue | 19 | 0 | 29 | 145 | 42 | 14 | 1 | 19.7% | 12.1% | 1.2% | 5.34 | 3.63 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 32 | 0 | 46 | 201 | 55 | 22 | 2 | 22.1% | 11.5% | 1.5% | 2.35 | 3.53 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 33 | 0 | 48 | 222 | 54 | 39 | 3 | 18.7% | 20.2% | 1.6% | 4.91 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 23.1% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 23.1% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 40 | — | 40 | 167 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 23.1% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.44 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 38 | 16 | 5 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 38 | — | 38 | 158 | 36 | 16 | 5 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 4.50 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 34 | 16 | 5 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.57 | 4.61 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 33 | 15 | 5 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.65 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 33 | — | 33 | 140 | 31 | 15 | 5 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 4.74 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | MIL | 32 | — | 32 | 133 | 29 | 14 | 5 | 21.6% | 10.7% | 3.5% | 4.84 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | MIL | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 27 | 14 | 4 | 21.2% | 10.9% | 3.6% | 4.95 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 106 | 7 | 172 | 829 | 146 | 124 | 14 | 17.6% | 15.0% | 1.6% | 5.43 | 4.42 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 123 | 8 | 200 | 962 | 169 | 144 | 16 | 17.6% | 15.0% | 1.6% | 5.43 | 4.42 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Karlos Morales (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 23.1% | 10.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.45 | 23.1% | 13.1% | 118 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Elvis Araujo L 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.16 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.20 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.04 | 2.45 | 120 | 85 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.85 | 21.0% | 12.3% | 3.6% | .234 | 3.46 | 20.5% | 4.0% | 57 | -1.39 | 3.46 | 145 | 84 |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 84 |
| Brendan Nail L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.27 | 22.6% | 12.5% | 2.7% | .311 | 4.47 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 53 | +0.20 | 3.49 | 165 | 83 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.26 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 3.2% | .272 | 5.26 | 13.4% | 3.4% | 67 | +1.00 | 3.88 | 256 | 83 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.35 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.92 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.57 | 3.35 | 147 | 83 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.49 | 26.0% | 13.1% | 1.7% | .260 | 3.65 | 27.7% | 17.1% | 129 | +0.16 | 3.47 | 160 | 83 |
| Bryan Harper L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.19 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .197 | 4.65 | 14.9% | 1.0% | 46 | +0.46 | 4.19 | 133 | 82 |
| Greg Nappo L 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.36 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 5.28 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +1.92 | 3.36 | 144 | 82 |
| Joey Marciano L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.66 | 24.9% | 9.2% | 2.7% | .301 | 4.74 | 20.6% | 4.5% | 102 | +1.08 | 3.66 | 330 | 82 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.64 | 2.79 | 159 | 82 |
| Haylen Green L 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.09 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 81 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2027 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .296 | 2.82 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -1.75 | 2.58 | 160 | 81 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.62 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.93 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.31 | 1.66 | 186 | 81 |
| Hunter Cervenka L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 23.1% | 12.6% | 1.7% | .246 | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 121 | +0.33 | 3.04 | 194 | 81 |
| Tyler Holton L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.30 | 20.7% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .288 | 3.59 | 21.7% | 16.8% | 258 | -0.71 | 2.93 | 367 | 81 |
| Reagan Todd L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.84 | 25.6% | 12.0% | 2.5% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 122 | 80 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2028 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 80 |
| Juan Grullon L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 80 |
| Jerry Vasto L 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.51 | 24.0% | 11.5% | 1.8% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 206 | 80 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.