Karlos Morales
P
Wisconsin Timber Rattlers
Age 26
LHP
6'3" / 170 lbs
A+
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 28 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101110vR 119
ERA4.42
FIP4.42
K%23.1%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%13.1%
ROS IP28
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | AZL Brewers | 5 | 1 | 10 | 47 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 20% | 1.9 | 19.1% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 2.1% | 8.38 | 3.73 | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | AZL Brewers | 5 | 1 | 10 | 47 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 20% | 1.9 | 19.1% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 2.1% | 8.38 | 3.82 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Brewers | 10 | 2 | 29 | 157 | 25 | 20 | 1 | 20% | 2.9 | 10.8% | 15.9% | -5.1% | 0.9% | 8.28 | 4.69 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Brewers | 10 | 2 | 29 | 157 | 25 | 20 | 1 | 20% | 2.9 | 15.9% | 12.7% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 8.28 | 3.88 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | AZL Brewers Blue | 7 | 4 | 11 | 57 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 57% | 1.6 | 9.5% | 17.5% | -8.0% | 4.9% | 10.64 | 7.21 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | AZL Brewers Blue | 7 | 4 | 11 | 57 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 57% | 1.6 | 14.0% | 14.0% | 0.0% | 3.5% | 10.64 | 6.19 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | ACL Brewers Blue | 19 | 0 | 29 | 145 | 42 | 14 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.7% | 12.1% | 7.6% | 1.1% | 5.34 | 3.56 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | ACL Brewers Blue | 19 | 0 | 29 | 145 | 42 | 14 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 29.0% | 9.7% | 19.3% | 0.7% | 5.34 | 2.09 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 0 | 46 | 201 | 55 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.1% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 1.3% | 2.35 | 3.42 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 0 | 46 | 201 | 55 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 27.4% | 10.9% | 16.4% | 1.0% | 2.35 | 2.71 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 33 | 0 | 48 | 222 | 54 | 39 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 18.7% | 20.2% | -1.5% | 1.6% | 4.91 | 4.95 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 33 | 0 | 48 | 222 | 54 | 39 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 24.3% | 17.6% | 6.8% | 1.4% | 4.91 | 4.11 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 27 | 0 | 28 | 120 | 28 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 10.0% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 27 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 10.0% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 10.0% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 0 | 10 | 43 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 10.0% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.07 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 195 | 78 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 10.0% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.07 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 106 | 7 | 172 | 829 | 146 | 124 | 13 | 7% | 1.6 | 17.6% | 15.0% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 5.43 | 4.37 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 123 | 8 | 200 | 962 | 169 | 144 | 15 | 7% | 1.6 | 17.6% | 15.0% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 5.43 | 4.37 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Karlos Morales (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 23.1% | 10.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.45 | 23.1% | 13.1% | 28 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 85 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.88 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 2.6% | .272 | 4.99 | 13.4% | 3.4% | 67 | +1.11 | 3.88 | 256 | 84 |
| Greg Nappo L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.40 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .267 | 5.45 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +2.05 | 3.40 | 144 | 83 |
| Sean Mellen L 2024 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 82 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.61 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.97 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.36 | 1.79 | 186 | 81 |
| Juan Grullon L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 81 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.72 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.53 | 2.79 | 159 | 81 |
| Will Gilbert L 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 141 | 81 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.12 | 21.0% | 12.3% | 4.1% | .234 | 3.46 | 20.5% | 4.0% | 57 | -1.66 | 3.46 | 145 | 81 |
| James Reeves L 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.79 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 2.3% | .226 | 5.24 | 27.0% | 10.8% | 51 | +1.45 | 2.02 | 280 | 81 |
| Elvis Araujo L 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.17 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.33 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.16 | 2.35 | 120 | 81 |
| Tyler Holton L 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.36 | 20.7% | 9.8% | 3.2% | .288 | 3.75 | 21.7% | 16.8% | 258 | -0.61 | 3.02 | 409 | 80 |
| Brendan Nail L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 22.6% | 12.5% | 2.7% | .311 | 4.43 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 53 | +0.17 | 3.67 | 165 | 80 |
| Mason Melotakis L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.62 | 21.9% | 10.9% | 1.8% | .264 | 5.40 | 12.0% | 0.6% | 30 | +1.78 | 3.12 | 142 | 80 |
| Brad Kuntz L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.02 | 20.9% | 11.7% | 2.2% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 197 | 79 |
| Joey Marciano L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.78 | 24.9% | 9.2% | 3.0% | .301 | 4.73 | 20.6% | 4.5% | 102 | +0.95 | 3.78 | 330 | 79 |
| Haylen Green L 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.08 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 104 | 79 |
| Giovanni Soto L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.96 | 25.6% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 128 | 79 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.41 | 26.0% | 13.1% | 1.5% | .260 | 3.76 | 27.7% | 17.1% | 129 | +0.35 | 3.41 | 160 | 79 |
| Triston Polley L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.19 | 17.8% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .331 | 4.49 | 17.4% | -0.3% | 22 | +0.30 | 4.19 | 151 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 28 | 23.1% | 10.0% | 1.15 | 4.42 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |