Freddy Tarnok

P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 185 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	MIX3 levels	11	7	36	2.97	5.66	17.9%	15.2%	-0.3	K 16.3% · BB 14.5% · FIP 6.08
2024	25	MIX2 levels	23	7	32	7.39	5.50	24.5%	12.9%	—	K 21.5% · BB 12.6% · FIP 6.02
2025	26	MIX2 levels	34	10	76	3.20	3.67	27.1%	11.4%	0.8	K 22.6% · BB 10.0% · FIP 4.15
2027PROJ	28	MLBMIA	21	21	127	4.58	4.58	22.8%	10.4%	0.5
2028PROJ37% MLB	29	MLBMIA	8	8	45	4.64	4.70	22.1%	10.3%	0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	30	MLBMIA	10	10	63	4.77	4.88	21.4%	10.4%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control45Command50

CompsFabio Castillo (age 28) · Patrick Johnson (age 27) · Kolton Mahoney (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

K%22.8%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%12.4%

Proj IP127

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 127 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†5555

FB+1.2 (41%)

SL+0.6 (17%)

CH (25%)

SI (7%)

CU (18%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	18	ROK MLE	GCL Braves	8	8	14	58	10	3	0	100%	1.8	11.7%	6.5%	5.3%	0.0%	2.57	2.93	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	GCL Braves	8	8	14	58	10	3	0	100%	1.8	17.2%	5.2%	12.1%	0.0%	2.57	2.31	—
2018	19	A MLE	Rome Braves	27	11	77	356	83	41	5	41%	2.9	17.3%	13.6%	3.7%	2.1%	3.96	4.50	—
2018	19	A RAW	Rome Braves	27	11	77	356	83	41	5	41%	2.9	23.3%	11.5%	11.8%	1.4%	3.96	3.38	—
2019	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	106	461	91	37	7	100%	4.8	14.6%	9.6%	5.0%	1.9%	4.75	4.12	—
2019	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	106	461	91	37	7	100%	4.8	19.7%	8.0%	11.7%	1.5%	4.75	3.29	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	14	73	299	109	28	8	88%	4.6	28.9%	10.5%	18.4%	3.8%	3.44	4.10	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	14	73	299	109	28	8	88%	4.6	36.5%	9.4%	27.1%	2.7%	3.44	2.69	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	23	107	459	125	44	15	88%	4.1	22.8%	10.4%	12.4%	4.0%	4.02	4.69	+0.3
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	23	107	459	125	44	15	88%	4.1	27.2%	9.6%	17.6%	3.3%	4.02	3.82	+1.4
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	7	36	151	27	23	6	64%	3.3	16.3%	14.5%	1.8%	4.6%	2.97	6.08	-0.5
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	11	7	36	151	27	23	6	64%	3.3	17.9%	15.2%	2.6%	4.0%	2.97	5.66	-0.3
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	7	32	147	36	19	7	30%	1.4	21.5%	12.6%	8.9%	5.7%	7.39	6.02	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	7	32	147	36	19	7	30%	1.4	21.5%	12.6%	8.9%	5.7%	7.39	6.02	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	7	32	147	36	19	7	30%	1.4	24.5%	12.9%	11.6%	4.8%	7.39	5.50	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	10	76	306	83	35	8	29%	2.2	22.6%	10.0%	12.5%	3.1%	3.20	4.15	+0.4
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	10	76	306	83	35	8	29%	2.2	22.6%	10.0%	12.5%	3.1%	3.20	4.15	+0.4
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	10	76	306	83	35	8	29%	2.2	27.1%	11.4%	15.7%	2.6%	3.20	3.67	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			11	1	23	96	25	15	5	9%	2.1	26.0%	15.6%	10.4%	5.2%	3.97	5.75	-0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	MIA	21	21	127	536	122	56	17	100%	6.0	22.8%	10.4%	12.4%	3.1%	4.58	4.58	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	MIA	20	20	122	513	114	53	17	100%	6.1	22.1%	10.3%	11.8%	3.2%	4.64	4.70	+0.3
2029	30	MLB MLE	MIA	19	19	114	483	103	50	17	100%	6.0	21.4%	10.4%	11.0%	3.4%	4.77	4.88	+0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	MIA	8	8	45	190	42	20	6	100%	5.6	22.1%	10.3%	11.8%	3.2%	4.64	4.70	+0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	MIA	10	10	63	266	57	28	9	100%	6.3	21.4%	10.4%	11.0%	3.4%	4.77	4.88	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		29	19	130	551	124	62	20	66%	4.5	22.5%	11.3%	11.2%	3.7%	4.59	4.65	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		44	29	200	845	190	95	31	65%	4.5	22.5%	11.3%	11.2%	3.7%	4.59	4.65	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		167	102	522	2237	452	247	71	61%	3.1	20.2%	11.0%	9.2%	3.2%	4.05	4.52	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	39	200	857	173	95	27	61%	3.1	20.2%	11.0%	9.2%	3.2%	4.05	4.52	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Freddy Tarnok (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	22.8%	10.4%	3.1%	—	4.79	21.8%	11.4%	236	+0.21	—	—	—
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	77
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	75
Kolton Mahoney R 2019 · 3.56 FIP	27	SW	3.56	19.4%	8.8%	1.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	302	71
Seth Simmons R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	28	SW	4.27	18.1%	8.1%	3.0%	.262	6.20	13.3%	2.4%	54	+1.93	3.07	251	70
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	242	69
Mitch Neunborn R 2024 · 4.25 FIP	27	SP-	4.25	19.0%	12.0%	2.2%	.285	5.80	16.4%	6.5%	114	+1.55	3.65	248	69
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	69
Drew VerHagen R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	28	SW	4.11	19.5%	7.3%	3.2%	.344	6.00	17.0%	4.7%	22	+1.89	2.80	487	67
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	67
Mitch Atkins R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	30	SP-	3.65	21.4%	8.2%	2.4%	.341	4.77	14.3%	6.2%	78	+1.12	3.65	215	67
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	67
Dustin Nippert R 2009 · 4.09 FIP	28	SP-	4.09	18.0%	9.7%	2.3%	.271	4.49	17.9%	6.1%	57	+0.40	3.83	268	67
Asher Wojciechowski R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SW	3.99	23.4%	6.5%	3.7%	.299	5.06	21.5%	13.1%	323	+1.07	3.15	678	66
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2012 · 4.28 FIP	31	SP-	4.28	19.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.277	3.45	21.5%	17.8%	528	-0.83	3.19	884	65
Garrett Mock R 2009 · 4.06 FIP	26	SP-	4.06	17.1%	9.7%	2.1%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	132	65
Matthew Shepherd R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	13.7%	9.5%	3.3%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	4.98	116	65
Riley Thompson R 2024 · 4.48 FIP	28	SW	4.48	17.6%	8.9%	3.2%	.340	—	—	—	—	—	4.48	340	65
Osvaldo Bido R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	28	SP-	3.86	23.8%	8.5%	3.1%	.268	5.48	18.0%	8.0%	116	+1.62	3.67	732	64
Matt Swarmer R 2022 · 5.01 FIP	28	SP-	5.01	22.4%	10.6%	4.5%	.270	5.47	16.9%	2.8%	32	+0.46	3.23	617	64
Grant Judkins R 2024 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	16.8%	9.1%	4.2%	.264	5.80	14.9%	5.8%	124	+0.67	5.13	322	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	129	22.4%	10.7%	1.30	4.62
Jack Bentley ('13-'27, 5 WAR*)	3.6	143	21.1%*	9.8%*	1.35*	4.67*
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	106	20.5%	9.7%	1.30	4.61
Rip Hagerman ('09-'16, 0 WAR*)	2.2	144	21.2%*	11.8%*	1.44*	4.55*
Kyle Wright ('23)	1.4	94	21.9%	9.7%	1.25	4.45
Dave Stenhouse ('62-'64, 2 WAR*)	1.9	124	17.9%*	10.5%*	1.33*	4.51*
Nate Karns ('19)	1.6	105	24.0%	9.3%	1.34	4.30