John Swanda prospect projection, MLE, ETA

John Swanda P Rocket City Trash Pandas

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 193 lbs AA peak 0.4 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 60 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.89

FIP4.89

K%18.2%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%7.4%

ROS IP60

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	18	ROK MLE	AZL Angels	7	1	10	48	6	5	1	14%	1.4	12.5%	10.4%	2.1%	2.1%	9.31	4.51	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	AZL Angels	7	1	10	48	6	5	1	14%	1.4	12.5%	10.4%	2.1%	2.1%	9.31	4.76	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	Orem Owlz	10	10	30	136	26	7	4	100%	3.0	13.0%	6.4%	6.6%	4.1%	4.50	5.08	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	Orem Owlz	10	10	30	136	26	7	4	100%	3.0	19.1%	5.1%	14.0%	2.9%	4.50	3.80	—
2019	20	A MLE	Burlington Bees	4	4	12	54	8	5	0	100%	2.9	11.0%	10.9%	0.0%	0.0%	3.86	3.56	—
2019	20	A RAW	Burlington Bees	4	4	12	54	8	5	0	100%	2.9	14.8%	9.3%	5.6%	0.0%	3.86	3.01	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	17	112	490	94	35	14	77%	5.1	15.0%	8.6%	6.4%	3.6%	4.58	4.92	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	17	112	490	94	35	14	77%	5.1	19.2%	7.1%	12.0%	2.9%	4.58	3.98	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	7	44	176	36	5	4	64%	4.0	14.0%	3.8%	10.2%	3.8%	4.74	4.49	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	11	7	44	176	36	5	4	64%	4.0	20.5%	2.8%	17.6%	2.3%	4.74	2.99	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	15	86	409	74	48	5	56%	3.2	14.6%	12.0%	2.6%	1.5%	6.80	4.19	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	15	86	409	74	48	5	56%	3.2	14.6%	12.0%	2.6%	1.5%	6.80	4.19	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	15	86	409	74	48	5	56%	3.2	18.1%	11.7%	6.4%	1.2%	6.80	3.81	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.2%	10.9%	7.4%	2.9%	4.89	4.89	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	LAA	10	10	58	247	46	27	7	100%	5.8	18.6%	10.8%	7.8%	3.0%	4.89	4.92	-0.0
2028	29	MLB MLE	LAA	9	9	56	236	44	26	7	100%	6.2	18.8%	10.9%	7.8%	3.1%	4.94	5.01	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	LAA	4	4	21	89	17	10	3	100%	5.2	18.6%	10.8%	7.8%	3.0%	4.89	4.92	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	LAA	5	5	31	131	25	14	4	100%	6.2	18.8%	10.9%	7.8%	3.1%	4.94	5.01	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	9	52	220	41	24	7	100%	5.8	18.7%	10.9%	7.8%	3.1%	4.92	4.59	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	157	92	27	100%	6.0	18.7%	10.9%	7.8%	3.1%	4.92	4.59	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		81	54	293	1313	188	118	37	67%	3.6	14.3%	9.0%	5.3%	2.8%	5.38	4.58	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	37	200	896	128	80	25	67%	3.6	14.3%	9.0%	5.3%	2.8%	5.38	4.58	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
John Swanda (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	18.2%	10.9%	2.9%	—	4.96	18.7%	7.8%	114	+0.07	—	—	—
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	82
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	82
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	80
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	80
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	79
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	78
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	284	77
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	76
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	76
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.40	21.6%	13.7%	145	-0.31	1.85	254	76
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	19.5%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.02	23.3%	14.9%	227	-0.85	3.83	543	75
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	75
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	75
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	20.0%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.90	3.02	341	75
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	75
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	74
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	242	74
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	73
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	73
Fredy Quintero R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	27	SP-	4.55	11.3%	8.9%	2.3%	.375	4.38	15.1%	7.3%	113	-0.17	4.29	241	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	18.5%	10.9%	1.16	4.91
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68