Casey Opitz
C Iowa Cubs| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | AA/A+2 orgs | 275 | .183/.287/.325 | 7 | 4 | 27 | — | .144/.222/.259 |
| 2025 | 27 | AACHC | 213 | .202/.301/.295 | 4 | 2 | 34 | — | .168/.244/.242 |
| 2026 | 28 | AAACHC | 47 | .205/.239/.273 | 1 | 0 | 7 | — | .178/.196/.244 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 29 | MLBCHC | 10 | .196/.260/.291 | 0 | 0 | 55 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 30 | MLBCHC | 41 | .195/.260/.289 | 1 | 0 | 54 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 60 | 49 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 245 | 373 | 265 | 638 | 20 | 316 | 18 | 17 | 304 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 138 | 114 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 202 | 331 | 333 | 664 | 132 | 286 | 30 | 16 | 304 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 110 | 91 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 41 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 209 | 339 | 352 | 691 | 143 | 319 | 37 | 15 | 317 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 162 | 139 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 46 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 209 | 312 | 309 | 622 | 101 | 290 | 28 | 11 | 286 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 155 | 131 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 41 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 176 | 303 | 282 | 586 | 107 | 239 | 26 | 15 | 277 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 120 | 109 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 41 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 193 | 267 | 376 | 643 | 183 | 254 | 34 | 8 | 287 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | — | 213 | 183 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 63 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 202 | 301 | 295 | 597 | 93 | 277 | 30 | 11 | 274 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 47 | 44 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 239 | 273 | 512 | 68 | 296 | 34 | 4 | 228 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 60 | 52 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 212 | 305 | 231 | 536 | 19 | 287 | 27 | 12 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 138 | 120 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 250 | 233 | 483 | 83 | 238 | 38 | 12 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 110 | 97 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 50 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 175 | 266 | 278 | 544 | 103 | 289 | 45 | 10 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 162 | 145 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 60 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 159 | 237 | 221 | 458 | 62 | 239 | 37 | 7 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 155 | 138 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 51 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 145 | 239 | 239 | 478 | 94 | 207 | 33 | 10 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 120 | 112 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 52 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 143 | 200 | 286 | 486 | 143 | 204 | 43 | 6 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | Knoxville Smokies | — | 213 | 190 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 77 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 168 | 244 | 242 | 486 | 74 | 242 | 36 | 8 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 47 | 45 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 178 | 196 | 244 | 440 | 67 | 270 | 40 | 2 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 60 | 52 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 212 | 305 | 231 | 536 | 19 | 306 | 27 | 12 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A RAW | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 60 | 49 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 245 | 373 | 265 | 638 | 20 | 316 | 18 | 17 | 304 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 138 | 120 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 250 | 233 | 483 | 83 | 242 | 38 | 12 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ RAW | South Bend Cubs | — | 138 | 114 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 202 | 331 | 333 | 664 | 132 | 286 | 30 | 16 | 304 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 272 | 242 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 110 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 161 | 245 | 240 | 485 | 79 | 267 | 40 | 8 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 272 | 230 | 48 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 35 | 87 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 209 | 323 | 326 | 650 | 117 | 300 | 32 | 13 | 299 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 275 | 250 | 35 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 103 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 140 | 218 | 248 | 466 | 108 | 206 | 37 | 8 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 275 | 240 | 44 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 33 | 82 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 183 | 287 | 325 | 612 | 142 | 245 | 30 | 12 | 281 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | Knoxville Smokies | — | 213 | 190 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 77 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 168 | 244 | 242 | 486 | 74 | 257 | 36 | 8 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA RAW | Knoxville Smokies | — | 213 | 183 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 63 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 202 | 301 | 295 | 597 | 93 | 277 | 30 | 11 | 274 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 47 | 45 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 178 | 196 | 244 | 440 | 67 | 280 | 40 | 2 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA RAW | Iowa Cubs | — | 47 | 44 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 239 | 273 | 512 | 68 | 296 | 34 | 4 | 228 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 60 | 53 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 305 | 226 | 531 | 19 | 287 | 27 | 12 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 138 | 121 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 149 | 250 | 231 | 481 | 83 | 238 | 38 | 12 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 272 | 243 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 110 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 160 | 245 | 239 | 484 | 78 | 259 | 40 | 8 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 275 | 248 | 35 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 103 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 141 | 218 | 250 | 468 | 109 | 206 | 37 | 8 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | Knoxville Smokies | — | 213 | 192 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 77 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 167 | 244 | 240 | 484 | 73 | 242 | 36 | 8 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 47 | 46 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 174 | 196 | 239 | 435 | 65 | 270 | 40 | 2 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 275 | 248 | 35 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 103 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 141 | 218 | 250 | 468 | 109 | 206 | 37 | 8 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | Knoxville Smokies | — | 213 | 192 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 77 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 167 | 244 | 240 | 484 | 73 | 242 | 36 | 8 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 47 | 46 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 174 | 196 | 239 | 435 | 65 | 270 | 40 | 2 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | CHC | 10% | 200 | 182 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 59 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 194 | 259 | 289 | 548 | 94 | 265 | 30 | 7 | 249 | 55 | -11 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | CHC | 10% | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 260 | 291 | 551 | 95 | 268 | 30 | 10 | 251 | 55 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | CHC | 27% | 151 | 138 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 44 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 194 | 258 | 287 | 545 | 93 | 265 | 29 | 7 | 248 | 54 | -8 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +3 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | CHC | 27% | 41 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 195 | 260 | 289 | 548 | 94 | 268 | 29 | 7 | 250 | 54 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 41 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 184 | 244 | 289 | 533 | 105 | 240 | 29 | 7 | 250 | 37 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 602 | 111 | 16 | 0 | 16 | 48 | 190 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 184 | 245 | 291 | 535 | 106 | 240 | 29 | 7 | 250 | 37 | -35 | +0 | -9 | +12 | +14 | -1.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1261 | 1133 | 188 | 28 | 4 | 20 | 104 | 453 | 11 | 14 | 1 | 166 | 243 | 251 | 493 | 85 | 251 | 36 | 8 | 223 | 37 | -14 | +1 | -2 | +5 | +6 | -0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 584 | 96 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 54 | 234 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 164 | 243 | 247 | 489 | 82 | 249 | 36 | 8 | 223 | 37 | -35 | +2 | -5 | +12 | +14 | -1.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAIowa Cubs · 47 PAwOBA .222 → .178 (−43)K% 34.0% → 40.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.04% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 40.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 2.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.992 | 26.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 2.48% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .222 → .178; ISO .068 → .045; BABIP .296 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAKnoxville Smokies · 213 PAwOBA .271 → .218 (−53)K% 29.6% → 36.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.58% | ÷0.994 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.80% | ÷0.988 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 7.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.41% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 1.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.33% | ÷0.996 | ×0.920 | ×0.959 | ×0.978 | 20.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷0.910 | ×0.910 | ×0.959 | ×0.978 | 3.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.959 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.33% | ÷0.911 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 2.86% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 82, 3B 130, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.
Result: wOBA .271 → .218; ISO .093 → .080; BABIP .277 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AATennessee Smokies · 155 PAwOBA .270 → .213 (−57)K% 26.5% → 33.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.45% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.84% | ÷0.959 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 10.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.65% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 0.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.015 | ×0.920 | ×0.979 | ×0.988 | 14.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.44% | ÷1.059 | ×0.910 | ×0.979 | ×0.988 | 3.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.22% | ÷0.985 | ×0.880 | ×0.979 | ×0.988 | 1.92% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.22% | ÷0.854 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 2.06% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 103, 2B 112, 3B 97, K 95, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .270 → .213; ISO .107 → .091; BABIP .239 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+South Bend Cubs · 120 PAwOBA .279 → .202 (−77)K% 34.2% → 43.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.17% | ÷1.005 | ×1.270 | — | — | 43.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.33% | ÷1.021 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.968 | 5.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.83% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.968 | 0.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.65% | ÷1.009 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 14.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.41% | ÷1.034 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 3.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.47% | ÷0.979 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 1.17% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.35% | ÷0.909 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 6.26% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 102, 2B 107, 3B 96, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .279 → .202; ISO .183 → .135; BABIP .254 → .204. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+South Bend Cubs · 162 PAwOBA .283 → .204 (−78)K% 28.4% → 37.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.40% | ÷0.966 | ×1.270 | — | — | 37.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.060 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 7.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.85% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.978 | 1.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.51% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×0.972 | ×0.978 | 19.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.45% | ÷1.140 | ×0.810 | ×0.972 | ×0.978 | 4.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.08% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.972 | ×0.978 | 0.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.15% | ÷1.197 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 1.41% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 139, 1B 98, 2B 128, 3B 130, K 93, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .283 → .204; ISO .101 → .063; BABIP .290 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AATennessee Smokies · 110 PAwOBA .312 → .239 (−73)K% 37.3% → 45.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.27% | ÷1.008 | ×1.220 | — | — | 45.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.45% | ÷1.059 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 9.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.91% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.00% | ÷0.975 | ×0.920 | ×0.988 | ×0.998 | 26.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.00% | ÷1.023 | ×0.910 | ×0.988 | ×0.998 | 1.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.966 | ×0.880 | ×0.988 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.00% | ÷1.082 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 5.90% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 95, 2B 105, 3B 93, K 102, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .312 → .239; ISO .143 → .104; BABIP .319 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+South Bend Cubs · 138 PAwOBA .299 → .229 (−70)K% 30.4% → 38.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.43% | ÷1.003 | ×1.270 | — | — | 38.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.94% | ÷0.986 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 11.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.44% | ÷1.010 | ×0.920 | ×0.968 | ×0.988 | 16.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.020 | ×0.810 | ×0.968 | ×0.988 | 6.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.097 | ×0.850 | ×0.968 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.17% | ÷0.938 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 3.51% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 102, 2B 104, 3B 119, K 101, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .299 → .229; ISO .132 → .102; BABIP .286 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 60 PAwOBA .297 → .244 (−53)K% 18.3% → 25.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.33% | ÷0.961 | ×1.360 | — | — | 25.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.67% | ÷0.963 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 11.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.95% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.990 | 26.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.63% | ÷0.923 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.990 | 2.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.977 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.977 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 100, 2B 85, 3B 95, K 92, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .297 → .244; ISO .020 → .018; BABIP .316 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).