Casey OpitzC
Knoxville Smokies
Age 28
S/R
5'10" / 200 lbs
AA
BB +5%HR -4%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
wRC+†47
AVG/OBP/SLG.176 / .252 / .281
PA179
HR4
K%38
BB%8
MLB%2%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
30→30
PWR
35→35
SPD
45→45
EYE
49↗50
trajectory · 10 yrs
-0.2peak
2026
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | — | — | — |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2034 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $-7M | $-12M | -$5M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 60 | 52 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .212 | .305 | .231 | .536 | .019 | .297 | 25 | 12 | .244 | 45 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 138 | 120 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .150 | .250 | .233 | .483 | .083 | .242 | 38 | 12 | .232 | 36 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | 2 teams | 272 | 242 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 113 | 4 | 4 | 1 | .161 | .245 | .240 | .485 | .079 | .273 | 42 | 8 | .221 | 27 | -22 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +8 | -1.0 |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | 2 teams | 275 | 250 | 34 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 107 | 2 | 4 | 0 | .136 | .215 | .244 | .459 | .108 | .204 | 39 | 8 | .212 | 20 | -25 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +8 | -1.2 |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | 213 | 190 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 82 | 3 | 2 | 0 | .168 | .244 | .258 | .502 | .089 | .262 | 38 | 8 | .222 | 28 | -17 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +6 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 179 | 160 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 69 | 2 | 2 | 0 | .188 | .266 | .306 | .572 | .119 | .278 | 39 | 8 | .246 | 47 | -11 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB 9% | CHC | 211 | 189 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 78 | 2 | 3 | 0 | .185 | .263 | .291 | .554 | .106 | .279 | 37 | 9 | .252 | 51 | -12 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +6 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB 19% | CHC | 265 | 238 | 44 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 96 | 3 | 3 | 0 | .185 | .262 | .298 | .561 | .113 | .278 | 36 | 8 | .254 | 53 | -14 | +1 | -2 | +5 | +8 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB 29% | CHC | 268 | 241 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 97 | 3 | 3 | 0 | .187 | .263 | .303 | .566 | .116 | .278 | 36 | 8 | .254 | 53 | -14 | +1 | -3 | +5 | +8 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB 40% | CHC | 258 | 233 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 94 | 2 | 2 | 0 | .180 | .254 | .283 | .537 | .103 | .276 | 36 | 8 | .251 | 50 | -14 | +0 | -4 | +5 | +7 | -0.6 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB 49% | CHC | 232 | 209 | 37 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 86 | 2 | 2 | 0 | .177 | .252 | .273 | .525 | .096 | .275 | 37 | 8 | .246 | 46 | -14 | +0 | -4 | +4 | +7 | -0.7 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB 57% | CHC | 193 | 173 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 73 | 2 | 1 | 0 | .173 | .251 | .266 | .517 | .092 | .273 | 38 | 8 | .240 | 42 | -13 | +0 | -5 | +3 | +5 | -0.9 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2564 | 2297 | 397 | 64 | 10 | 48 | 218 | 963 | 25 | 26 | 1 | .173 | .252 | .272 | .524 | .099 | .268 | 38 | 9 | .239 | 41 | -170 | +5 | -19 | +46 | +73 | -6.7 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 582 | 101 | 16 | 3 | 12 | 55 | 244 | 6 | 7 | 0 | .174 | .252 | .273 | .525 | .100 | .270 | 38 | 8 | .239 | 41 | -43 | +1 | -5 | +12 | +18 | -1.7 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 60 | 49 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .245 | .373 | .265 | .638 | .020 | .316 | 18 | 17 | .304 | 91 | -1 | +0 | — | — | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 138 | 114 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .202 | .331 | .333 | .664 | .132 | .286 | 30 | 16 | .304 | 91 | -1 | +0 | — | — | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 110 | 91 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 41 | 1 | 2 | 0 | .209 | .339 | .352 | .691 | .143 | .319 | 37 | 15 | .317 | 101 | +0 | +0 | — | — | +3 | 0.4 |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 162 | 139 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 46 | 3 | 2 | 1 | .209 | .312 | .309 | .622 | .101 | .290 | 28 | 11 | .286 | 77 | -4 | +0 | — | — | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 155 | 131 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 41 | 1 | 3 | 0 | .176 | .303 | .282 | .586 | .107 | .239 | 26 | 15 | .277 | 70 | -5 | +1 | — | — | +4 | -0.0 |
| 2024 | 26 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 120 | 109 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 41 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .193 | .267 | .376 | .643 | .183 | .254 | 34 | 8 | .287 | 78 | -3 | +0 | — | — | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | 213 | 183 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 63 | 3 | 2 | 0 | .202 | .301 | .295 | .597 | .093 | .277 | 30 | 11 | .274 | 68 | -8 | +0 | — | — | +6 | -0.1 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Casey Opitz (OGILVIE) | 28 | 30 | 35 | 45 | 50 | .176/.252/.281 | .105 | .278 | 4 | 2 | 38% | 8% | 47 | -0.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Micah Gibbs 2015 · AA |
27 | 39 | 39→30 | 47→45 | 44 | .188/.264/.271 | .083 | .282 | 6 | 8 | 33% | 8% | 48 | -1.9 | .210/.266/.313 | .103 | .290 | 8 | 8 | 29% | 7% | 59 | -1.1 | .195/.246/.310 | .115 | .264 | 10 | 0 | 29% | 6% | 50 | -0.3 |
|
✕Caleb Hamilton 2022 · AAA |
27 | 36 | 44→45 | 46→45 | 43 | .181/.257/.295 | .114 | .275 | 12 | 9 | 37% | 9% | 52 | -1.6 | .181/.267/.319 | .138 | .277 | 18 | 6 | 38% | 10% | 63 | -0.9 | .145/.237/.274 | .129 | .209 | 19 | 3 | 39% | 10% | 37 | -0.8 |
|
✕Jake Lowery 2017 · AA |
27 | 36 | 43→45 | 48→30 | 43 | .183/.252/.292 | .109 | .264 | 10 | 5 | 33% | 8% | 48 | -1.9 | .194/.265/.297 | .103 | .312 | 9 | 6 | 37% | 9% | 55 | -1.4 | .125/.205/.184 | .059 | .260 | 4 | 0 | 49% | 9% | 0 | -1.2 |
|
✕Jason Delay 2023 · MLB |
28 | 41 | 39→45 | 42→40 | 39 | .202/.249/.290 | .088 | .280 | 7 | 5 | 30% | 5% | 45 | -2.1 | .221/.277/.307 | .086 | .290 | 5 | 5 | 24% | 6% | 62 | -0.9 | .215/.272/.281 | .066 | .278 | 3 | 2 | 22% | 6% | 49 | -0.6 |
|
✕Ryan Jorgensen 2007 · AAA |
28 | 38 | 44→45 | 48→30 | 43 | .197/.260/.308 | .111 | .260 | 13 | 6 | 29% | 7% | 56 | -1.3 | .211/.260/.328 | .117 | .271 | 13 | 5 | 26% | 6% | 60 | -1.0 | .210/.254/.324 | .114 | .266 | 12 | 1 | 25% | 5% | 54 | -0.6 |
|
✕Joe Hudson 2020 · AAA |
29 | 38 | 44→45 | 47→40 | 40 | .194/.247/.308 | .114 | .270 | 12 | 4 | 32% | 6% | 50 | -1.7 | .198/.255/.324 | .126 | .283 | 16 | 5 | 34% | 7% | 57 | -1.2 | .183/.287/.336 | .152 | .261 | 22 | 8 | 36% | 11% | 73 | -0.0 |
|
✕Hamlet Marte 2021 · AA |
27 | 40 | 43→45 | 44→45 | 39 | .198/.255/.304 | .106 | .297 | 11 | 5 | 36% | 7% | 52 | -1.6 | .193/.251/.287 | .094 | .336 | 9 | 7 | 42% | 7% | 46 | -2.0 | .147/.210/.229 | .082 | .244 | 10 | 4 | 42% | 7% | 11 | -0.9 |
|
✕Jerome Pena 2016 · A |
27 | 41→34 | 40 | 46→45 | 38 | .197/.252/.288 | .091 | .311 | 7 | 7 | 37% | 7% | 46 | -2.0 | .210/.278/.345 | .135 | .339 | 14 | 10 | 39% | 8% | 72 | -0.2 | .176/.259/.339 | .162 | .273 | 20 | 10 | 41% | 10% | 60 | -0.2 |
|
✕Steven Lerud 2013 · AAA |
28 | 40→42 | 41→45 | 42→40 | 37 | .192/.259/.287 | .095 | .303 | 9 | 4 | 37% | 6% | 50 | -1.7 | .211/.289/.302 | .091 | .303 | 8 | 5 | 30% | 8% | 66 | -0.6 | .213/.299/.279 | .066 | .305 | 5 | 1 | 29% | 9% | 61 | -0.3 |
|
✕Gift Ngoepe 2018 · MLB |
28 | 43→42 | 43→45 | 42→50 | 38 | .204/.261/.315 | .111 | .312 | 9 | 6 | 36% | 6% | 57 | -1.2 | .185/.255/.294 | .109 | .332 | 11 | 8 | 43% | 8% | 50 | -1.7 | .137/.222/.220 | .083 | .276 | 10 | 7 | 50% | 9% | 16 | -1.2 |
|
✕John Nelson 2007 · AAA |
28 | 34→35 | 47→45 | 48→45 | 37 | .181/.241/.311 | .129 | .276 | 16 | 9 | 39% | 6% | 49 | -1.8 | .189/.246/.332 | .143 | .280 | 19 | 8 | 38% | 6% | 56 | -1.3 | .158/.218/.302 | .144 | .215 | 22 | 0 | 38% | 6% | 36 | -1.3 |
|
✕Joseph Odom 2020 · AAA |
28 | 42 | 42→45 | 44→30 | 36 | .205/.249/.304 | .099 | .304 | 10 | 3 | 35% | 5% | 49 | -1.8 | .199/.256/.305 | .106 | .333 | 11 | 5 | 41% | 6% | 53 | -1.5 | .171/.242/.298 | .127 | .335 | 15 | 3 | 50% | 7% | 43 | -0.6 |
|
✕Cody Bohanek 2022 · AAA |
27 | 37→36 | 43→40 | 48→50 | 40 | .177/.276/.289 | .112 | .295 | 10 | 15 | 40% | 8% | 59 | -1.1 | .186/.277/.284 | .098 | .306 | 8 | 15 | 38% | 8% | 58 | -1.2 | .151/.251/.216 | .064 | .271 | 3 | 16 | 40% | 8% | 27 | -1.6 |
|
✕Dave Wallace 2008 · AAA |
28 | 34 | 47→45 | 43→40 | 42 | .182/.258/.310 | .127 | .254 | 16 | 5 | 34% | 8% | 56 | -1.3 | .209/.277/.329 | .120 | .281 | 13 | 6 | 29% | 8% | 69 | -0.4 | .205/.282/.307 | .102 | .267 | 11 | 0 | 26% | 8% | 64 | -0.2 |
|
✕Dom Nuñez 2023 · MLB |
28 | 36→43 | 45→50 | 46→45 | 49 | .185/.271/.311 | .126 | .259 | 12 | 4 | 32% | 10% | 62 | -0.9 | .176/.265/.289 | .113 | .261 | 11 | 6 | 34% | 10% | 54 | -1.4 | .147/.248/.254 | .107 | .221 | 11 | 4 | 36% | 11% | 36 | -1.2 |
|
✕Jake Means 2023 · AA |
27 | 35→30 | 47→45 | 50→45 | 43 | .183/.260/.318 | .135 | .266 | 15 | 9 | 36% | 9% | 59 | -1.1 | .181/.252/.301 | .120 | .260 | 14 | 10 | 34% | 8% | 51 | -1.7 | .130/.207/.227 | .097 | .172 | 15 | 8 | 34% | 8% | 11 | -2.0 |
|
✕Anderson Machado 2009 · AAA |
28 | 41→43 | 41→40 | 49→45 | 48 | .202/.273/.301 | .099 | .268 | 8 | 9 | 27% | 9% | 59 | -1.1 | .198/.272/.284 | .086 | .277 | 5 | 10 | 28% | 9% | 54 | -1.4 | .194/.272/.269 | .075 | .285 | 1 | 9 | 29% | 9% | 48 | -0.7 |
|
✕Carlos Corporán 2012 · MLB |
28 | 41 | 42→45 | 43→40 | 39 | .206/.260/.313 | .107 | .269 | 10 | 4 | 27% | 5% | 56 | -1.3 | .229/.284/.359 | .130 | .289 | 15 | 4 | 25% | 5% | 79 | +0.3 | .233/.289/.364 | .130 | .287 | 17 | 1 | 24% | 5% | 81 | +0.2 |
|
✕Jameson Fisher 2021 · AA |
27 | 39→36 | 40→45 | 43→45 | 41 | .188/.258/.280 | .092 | .292 | 8 | 6 | 36% | 8% | 48 | -1.9 | .220/.275/.343 | .123 | .313 | 13 | 6 | 32% | 7% | 70 | -0.3 | .235/.285/.380 | .146 | .314 | 17 | 2 | 30% | 6% | 80 | +0.2 |
|
✕Connor Hoover 2023 · AA |
27 | 34→30 | 47→50 | 50 | 44 | .181/.258/.318 | .137 | .259 | 15 | 13 | 35% | 9% | 58 | -1.2 | .189/.267/.321 | .132 | .273 | 16 | 12 | 35% | 9% | 63 | -0.9 | .160/.249/.296 | .136 | .218 | 19 | 12 | 36% | 9% | 46 | -1.0 |