Osvaldo Berrios

P Worcester Red Sox

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 225 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	25	0	36	3.53	3.21	29.7%	7.0%	—	K 22.7% · BB 6.9% · FIP 3.45
2025	25	MIX2 levels	40	4	58	5.12	4.67	24.0%	9.3%	—	K 19.7% · BB 9.5% · FIP 5.37
2026	26	MIX3 levels	34	6	59	4.60	5.13	23.7%	12.6%	—	K 19.9% · BB 12.7% · FIP 6.06
2027PROJ	27	MLBBOS	117	0	123	5.27	5.27	20.0%	10.5%	-1.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBBOS	49	0	51	5.22	5.25	20.0%	10.3%	-0.4
2029PROJ59% MLB	29	MLBBOS	64	0	67	5.24	5.31	20.0%	10.4%	-0.6

Next 3 projected WAR -1.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control50Command55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsJose Pina (age 29) · Jorge Reyes (age 27) · Taylor Grover (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.27

FIP5.27

K%20.0%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%9.5%

Proj IP123

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 123 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	17	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics	13	7	27	129	25	8	2	54%	2.1	13.2%	7.8%	5.4%	2.2%	8.00	4.16	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	AZL Athletics	13	7	27	129	25	8	2	54%	2.1	19.4%	6.2%	13.2%	1.6%	8.00	3.10	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics	13	10	51	220	43	13	1	77%	3.9	13.3%	7.4%	5.9%	0.6%	3.71	3.26	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	AZL Athletics	13	10	51	220	43	13	1	77%	3.9	19.5%	5.9%	13.6%	0.5%	3.71	2.43	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics Gold	4	2	15	58	17	0	1	50%	3.8	19.9%	0.0%	19.9%	2.4%	3.60	2.74	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	AZL Athletics Gold	4	2	15	58	17	0	1	50%	3.8	29.3%	0.0%	29.3%	1.7%	3.60	1.70	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	16	103	456	90	30	16	73%	4.7	14.7%	7.7%	7.0%	4.1%	5.94	5.07	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	16	103	456	90	30	16	73%	4.7	19.7%	6.6%	13.2%	3.5%	5.94	4.25	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	27	11	93	422	79	33	16	41%	3.5	14.4%	9.0%	5.4%	5.0%	6.17	5.78	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	27	11	93	422	79	33	16	41%	3.5	18.7%	7.8%	10.9%	3.8%	6.17	4.70	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	36	158	47	11	5	0%	1.4	22.7%	6.9%	15.8%	2.5%	3.53	3.45	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	36	158	47	11	5	0%	1.4	22.7%	6.9%	15.8%	2.5%	3.53	3.45	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	0	36	158	47	11	5	0%	1.4	29.7%	7.0%	22.8%	3.2%	3.53	3.21	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	4	58	258	62	24	11	10%	1.4	19.7%	9.5%	10.2%	5.0%	5.12	5.37	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	4	58	258	62	24	11	10%	1.4	19.7%	9.5%	10.2%	5.0%	5.12	5.37	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	4	58	258	62	24	11	10%	1.4	24.0%	9.3%	14.7%	4.3%	5.12	4.67	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	6	59	253	60	32	11	18%	1.7	19.9%	12.7%	7.2%	5.5%	4.60	6.06	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	6	59	253	60	32	11	18%	1.7	19.9%	12.7%	7.2%	5.5%	4.60	6.06	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	6	59	253	60	32	11	18%	1.7	23.7%	12.6%	11.1%	4.3%	4.60	5.13	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	BOS	117	0	123	519	104	54	20	0%	1.1	20.0%	10.5%	9.5%	3.9%	5.27	5.27	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	BOS	114	0	119	504	101	52	20	0%	1.0	20.0%	10.3%	9.7%	3.9%	5.22	5.25	-0.9
2029	29	MLB MLE	BOS	108	0	114	481	96	50	19	0%	1.1	20.0%	10.4%	9.6%	4.0%	5.24	5.31	-0.9
2030	30	MLB MLE	BOS	102	0	107	452	89	48	19	0%	1.1	19.7%	10.5%	9.2%	4.2%	5.33	5.43	-1.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	BOS	49	0	51	215	43	22	8	0%	1.0	20.0%	10.3%	9.7%	3.9%	5.22	5.25	-0.4
2029	29	MLB CTX	BOS	64	0	67	283	56	29	11	0%	1.0	20.0%	10.4%	9.6%	4.0%	5.24	5.31	-0.6
2030	30	MLB CTX	BOS	71	0	75	317	62	33	13	0%	1.1	19.7%	10.5%	9.2%	4.2%	5.33	5.43	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		184	0	193	816	162	85	33	0%	1.1	19.9%	10.4%	9.4%	4.0%	5.27	4.96	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	168	88	34	0%	1.1	19.9%	10.4%	9.4%	4.0%	5.27	4.96	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		178	56	442	1954	323	167	76	31%	2.5	16.5%	8.5%	8.0%	3.9%	5.30	4.93	-3.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		81	25	200	885	146	76	35	31%	2.5	16.5%	8.5%	8.0%	3.9%	5.30	4.93	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Osvaldo Berrios (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.27	20.0%	10.5%	3.9%	—	5.33	19.9%	9.5%	340	+0.06	—	—	—
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	84
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	80
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	79
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	78
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	78
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	76
Tristan Beck R 2023 · 4.70 FIP	27	SW	4.70	19.3%	6.8%	4.3%	.271	3.74	19.9%	12.2%	176	-0.96	3.48	501	76
Britt Reames R 2001 · 4.77 FIP	27	SW	4.77	19.9%	10.4%	3.7%	.298	3.76	24.7%	14.3%	68	-1.01	3.76	204	76
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	75
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	75
J.P. France R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	27	SW	4.44	24.9%	10.9%	3.8%	.301	4.47	18.6%	9.0%	205	+0.03	4.04	577	74
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	74
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	73
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	242	72
TJ Shook R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	26	SW	4.15	23.7%	8.7%	3.5%	.317	3.92	20.0%	11.1%	107	-0.23	3.35	452	72
Adam Quintana R 2019 · 4.17 FIP	27	SW	4.17	18.6%	11.7%	2.1%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	1.72	201	71
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	71
Jacob Webb R 2024 · 4.66 FIP	25	SW	4.66	17.8%	8.2%	3.7%	.301	4.42	20.2%	7.1%	75	-0.24	3.33	268	71
Donovan Hand R 2013 · 4.72 FIP	27	SW	4.72	12.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.279	4.30	11.1%	6.8%	97	-0.42	4.30	305	71
Cory Abbott R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	27	SW	4.88	23.5%	11.9%	4.1%	.300	5.04	22.1%	12.8%	151	+0.16	3.86	703	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	116	19.9%	10.4%	1.54	5.26
Matt Beech ('98)	1.5	98	20.2%	10.0%	1.59	5.37
Kevin Foster ('01)	2.5	127	18.9%	10.0%	1.55	4.86
Bill Grahame ('08-'10, 0 WAR*)	1.7	116	17.7%*	9.3%*	1.52*	5.11*
Jeff Robinson ('87-'92, 0 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.3%*	10.9%*	1.38*	5.14*
Don Black ('43-'48, 0 WAR*)	4.0	133	17.4%*	10.4%*	1.28*	5.32*
Dan Straily ('19)	4.0	115	19.8%	9.1%	1.60	4.56