Holden Powell
P
Harrisburg Senators
Age 26
RHP
6'0" / 190 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION31 act + 33 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130121vR 112
ERA4.93
FIP4.93
K%20.6%
BB%14.9%
K-BB%5.7%
ROS IP33
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 25% | 1.2 | 33.3% | 14.3% | 19.0% | 4.8% | 7.71 | 4.71 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 25% | 1.2 | 33.3% | 14.3% | 19.0% | 4.8% | 7.71 | 4.81 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 1 | 16 | 69 | 14 | 9 | 0 | 8% | 1.3 | 11.5% | 14.2% | -2.8% | 0.0% | 4.60 | 3.93 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 1 | 16 | 69 | 14 | 9 | 0 | 8% | 1.3 | 20.3% | 13.0% | 7.2% | 0.0% | 4.60 | 3.04 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 5 levels | 30 | 0 | 36 | 158 | 35 | 21 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 16.9% | 18.4% | -1.5% | 0.0% | 3.47 | 4.00 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 5 levels | 30 | 0 | 36 | 158 | 35 | 21 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.2% | 13.3% | 8.9% | 0.6% | 3.47 | 3.27 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 32 | 0 | 38 | 175 | 46 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.3% | 15.7% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 4.78 | 4.83 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 32 | 0 | 38 | 175 | 46 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.3% | 14.3% | 12.0% | 2.3% | 4.78 | 4.03 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 56 | 252 | 55 | 46 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.6% | 19.4% | -0.8% | 1.0% | 4.02 | 4.53 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 56 | 252 | 55 | 46 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 18.3% | 3.6% | 0.8% | 4.02 | 4.06 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 21 | 1 | 31 | 137 | 33 | 16 | 4 | 5% | 1.5 | 19.7% | 13.9% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.73 | 5.76 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | WSH | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 29 | 21 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 14.9% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 4.93 | 4.93 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | WSH | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.6% | 14.9% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 4.93 | 4.93 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 64 | 276 | 62 | 37 | 7 | — | — | 22.4% | 13.3% | 9.0% | 2.6% | 4.35 | 5.33 | -0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 20.6% | 14.9% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 4.93 | 4.55 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 31 | 0 | 32 | 137 | 29 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 14.4% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 4.89 | 4.90 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 14.4% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 4.89 | 4.90 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 12 | 0 | 13 | 54 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 14.5% | 6.4% | 2.5% | 4.89 | 4.52 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 171 | 125 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 14.5% | 6.4% | 2.5% | 4.89 | 4.52 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 149 | 3 | 182 | 812 | 153 | 137 | 15 | 2% | 1.2 | 18.8% | 16.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 4.16 | 4.65 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 164 | 3 | 200 | 894 | 168 | 151 | 16 | 2% | 1.2 | 18.8% | 16.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 4.16 | 4.65 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Holden Powell (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.93 | 20.6% | 14.9% | 2.4% | — | 4.90 | 20.9% | 6.5% | 32 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Derek Eitel R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.32 | 18.1% | 13.9% | 1.8% | .338 | 4.21 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 113 | -0.11 | 3.85 | 138 | 88 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.36 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.3% | .254 | 4.21 | 13.5% | -4.3% | 15 | -0.15 | 3.58 | 169 | 88 |
| Armando Rivero R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.39 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .256 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.58 | 2.81 | 125 | 88 |
| Keagan Gillies R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 21.1% | 13.3% | 1.6% | .306 | 3.61 | 20.1% | 13.5% | 54 | -0.24 | 2.88 | 157 | 86 |
| Cody Scroggins R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.50 | 20.5% | 16.2% | 2.0% | .351 | 3.67 | 14.2% | 4.6% | 18 | -0.83 | 3.67 | 108 | 86 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 86 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2025 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 86 |
| Eduard Santos R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.03 | 22.2% | 14.4% | 1.8% | .248 | 2.04 | 31.1% | 18.7% | 16 | -1.99 | 2.04 | 138 | 86 |
| Grant Sides R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.01 | 17.2% | 13.2% | 1.2% | .266 | 3.89 | 22.4% | 10.5% | 62 | -0.12 | 3.24 | 159 | 85 |
| Nick Ernst R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 117 | 84 |
| Matt Wivinis R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.87 | 19.5% | 12.2% | 1.6% | .262 | 5.90 | 14.5% | 6.2% | 17 | +2.03 | 1.61 | 124 | 84 |
| Rene Coss R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.08 | 16.7% | 13.9% | 1.1% | .250 | 4.96 | 13.0% | 2.1% | 82 | +0.88 | 3.90 | 123 | 84 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.16 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.34 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.18 | 3.78 | 180 | 84 |
| Nelson L. Alvarez R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.09 | 23.4% | 14.2% | 2.1% | .282 | 4.63 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 35 | +0.54 | 2.53 | 233 | 84 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.60 | 24.0% | 16.8% | 2.5% | .225 | 5.38 | 21.5% | 6.0% | 78 | +0.78 | 3.88 | 158 | 83 |
| Zac Leigh R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.49 | 21.9% | 16.7% | 2.1% | .367 | 4.98 | 19.5% | 1.7% | 83 | +0.49 | 3.72 | 197 | 83 |
| Juan Paniagua R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 17.7% | 14.7% | 1.9% | .246 | 4.88 | 12.9% | -1.0% | 29 | +0.37 | 4.51 | 151 | 83 |
| Billy Seidl R 2024 · 4.87 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.87 | 18.3% | 14.2% | 2.8% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 102 | 83 |
| Ryan Sublette R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.77 | 19.0% | 15.8% | 2.3% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 203 | 83 |
| Justin Evans R 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.73 | 23.6% | 14.3% | 1.5% | .323 | 4.80 | 16.4% | -7.9% | 14 | +1.07 | 3.73 | 105 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 33 | 20.8% | 14.7% | 0.94 | 4.91 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |