Holden Powell — OGILVIE

Holden Powell P Harrisburg Senators

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 190 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 32 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 116

ERA5.24

FIP5.24

K%18.6%

BB%16.1%

K-BB%2.5%

ROS IP33

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 32 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	1	5	21	7	3	1	25%	1.2	33.3%	14.3%	19.0%	4.8%	7.71	4.71	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	1	5	21	7	3	1	25%	1.2	33.3%	14.3%	19.0%	4.8%	7.71	4.81	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	1	16	69	14	9	0	8%	1.3	11.5%	14.2%	-2.8%	0.0%	4.60	3.93	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	1	16	69	14	9	0	8%	1.3	20.3%	13.0%	7.2%	0.0%	4.60	3.04	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	5 levels	30	0	36	158	35	21	1	0%	1.2	16.9%	18.4%	-1.5%	0.0%	3.47	4.00	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	5 levels	30	0	36	158	35	21	1	0%	1.2	16.9%	18.4%	-1.5%	0.0%	3.47	4.00	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	5 levels	30	0	36	158	35	21	1	0%	1.2	22.2%	13.3%	8.9%	0.6%	3.47	3.27	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	32	0	38	175	46	25	4	0%	1.2	21.3%	15.7%	5.6%	2.8%	4.78	4.81	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Harrisburg Senators	32	0	38	175	46	25	4	0%	1.2	21.3%	15.7%	5.6%	2.8%	4.78	4.81	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Harrisburg Senators	32	0	38	175	46	25	4	0%	1.2	26.3%	14.3%	12.0%	2.3%	4.78	4.03	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	56	252	55	46	2	0%	1.1	17.9%	17.4%	0.6%	0.9%	4.02	4.31	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	56	252	55	46	2	0%	1.1	17.9%	17.4%	0.6%	0.9%	4.02	4.31	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	56	252	55	46	2	0%	1.1	21.8%	18.3%	3.6%	0.8%	4.02	4.06	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	36	3	52	230	59	29	5	8%	1.4	21.4%	13.7%	7.7%	3.1%	3.46	4.73	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	36	3	52	230	59	29	5	8%	1.4	21.4%	13.7%	7.7%	3.1%	3.46	4.73	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	WSH	32	3	45	193	51	24	5	9%	1.4	26.4%	12.4%	14.0%	2.6%	3.20	3.87	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	WSH	4	0	7	37	8	5	0	0%	1.8	21.6%	13.5%	8.1%	0.0%	5.14	2.99	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	WSH	48	0	50	212	40	33	5	0%	1.0	19.1%	15.5%	3.6%	2.5%	5.17	5.18	-0.4
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	46	0	49	205	40	31	5	0%	1.1	19.3%	15.2%	4.1%	2.6%	5.17	5.20	-0.4
2027	27	MLB CTX	WSH	18	0	19	80	15	12	2	0%	1.1	19.1%	15.5%	3.6%	2.5%	5.17	5.18	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	28	0	29	122	24	19	3	0%	1.0	19.3%	15.2%	4.1%	2.6%	5.17	5.20	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		45	0	48	202	39	31	5	0%	1.1	19.2%	15.3%	3.9%	2.6%	5.17	4.82	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	163	130	21	0%	1.1	19.2%	15.3%	3.9%	2.6%	5.17	4.82	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		164	5	202	905	173	145	15	3%	1.2	19.2%	16.0%	3.2%	1.7%	4.05	4.44	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		162	5	200	895	171	143	15	3%	1.2	19.2%	16.0%	3.2%	1.7%	4.05	4.44	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Holden Powell (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.24	18.6%	16.1%	2.4%	—	5.19	19.2%	3.9%	99	-0.05	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.19	17.7%	6.6%	90	-0.70	3.90	164	89
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	88
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	87
Rene Coss R 2015 · 4.11 FIP	26	SU	4.11	16.7%	13.9%	1.2%	.250	4.79	13.0%	2.1%	82	+0.68	3.84	123	86
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	86
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	86
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	85
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	85
Juan Paniagua R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	26	SU	4.57	17.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.246	4.75	12.9%	-1.0%	29	+0.18	4.57	151	84
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	84
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	83
Trey Haley R 2016 · 4.98 FIP	26	SU	4.98	14.0%	16.5%	1.8%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	111	83
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	83
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	83
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	82
Brad Schreiber R 2017 · 4.23 FIP	26	SU	4.23	17.3%	12.7%	1.8%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	171	82
Chris Perry R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	26	SU	4.24	21.3%	19.3%	0.9%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	113	82
Oscar Hurtado R 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SU	4.23	16.0%	17.0%	0.6%	.344	4.27	12.0%	4.3%	100	+0.04	4.23	140	82
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	82
Zach Vennaro R 2022 · 4.29 FIP	26	SU	4.29	19.3%	15.3%	1.6%	.331	4.14	18.4%	0.3%	42	-0.15	3.24	156	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	44	19.0%	15.5%	0.96	5.19
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48