Juan Mejia
P
Colorado Rockies
+1.1
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.0 · 2026
ERA3.93
FIP3.90
xFIP4.70
SIERA4.33
K%25.5%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%15.8%
IP67
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2026
K†6565
CT (1%)
SI (9%)
CH (1%)
SL (43%)
FB-2.2 (55%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rockies | 16 | 1 | 32 | 132 | 27 | 11 | 3 | 13.9% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 2.84 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Colorado | 13 | 13 | 58 | 258 | 61 | 22 | 5 | 16.1% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 5.43 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 43 | 1 | 47 | 213 | 66 | 23 | 2 | 22.9% | 12.7% | 1.0% | 4.82 | 3.31 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 44 | 0 | 50 | 220 | 60 | 26 | 4 | 20.4% | 13.8% | 2.1% | 4.68 | 4.28 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 48 | 0 | 59 | 269 | 86 | 32 | 4 | 24.9% | 13.5% | 1.8% | 5.06 | 3.68 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 47 | 0 | 54 | 243 | 65 | 28 | 3 | 21.7% | 12.7% | 1.6% | 5.00 | 3.77 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 65 | 0 | 75 | 317 | 90 | 29 | 6 | 27.6% | 9.2% | 2.0% | 4.10 | 3.01 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 8 | 1 | 9 | 43 | 7 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 7.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | COL | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 67 | 24 | 6 | 27.3% | 9.7% | 2.5% | 3.80 | 3.75 | +0.8 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | COL | — | — | 67 | 287 | 74 | 27 | 7 | 25.7% | 9.3% | 2.4% | 4.23 | 3.25 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 66 | 280 | 71 | 26 | 7 | 25.2% | 9.4% | 2.5% | 3.94 | 3.93 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 276 | 69 | 26 | 7 | 25.0% | 9.4% | 2.6% | 3.97 | 3.98 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 64 | 270 | 66 | 26 | 7 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.6% | 4.04 | 4.07 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 63 | 25 | 7 | 23.9% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.12 | 4.17 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | COL | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 59 | 25 | 7 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.21 | 4.27 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | COL | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 55 | 24 | 7 | 22.7% | 9.9% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.39 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | COL | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 51 | 23 | 7 | 22.0% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.52 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | COL | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 47 | 23 | 7 | 21.3% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.57 | 4.66 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | COL | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 43 | 22 | 7 | 20.6% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 4.71 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | COL | 46 | — | 46 | 194 | 38 | 21 | 6 | 19.8% | 10.7% | 3.3% | 4.87 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 284 | 16 | 383 | 1695 | 368 | 198 | 34 | 21.7% | 11.7% | 2.0% | 4.70 | 3.84 | +6.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 148 | 8 | 200 | 886 | 192 | 103 | 18 | 21.7% | 11.7% | 2.0% | 4.70 | 3.84 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juan Mejia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.75 | 27.3% | 9.7% | 2.5% | — | 3.99 | 24.9% | 15.4% | 196 | +0.24 | — | — | — |
| Blake Treinen R 2027 · 3.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.02 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 1.3% | .314 | 2.56 | 26.4% | 19.2% | 223 | -0.46 | 1.54 | 521 | 87 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.52 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .244 | 3.73 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.21 | 3.18 | 253 | 87 |
| José Ramírez R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.36 | 23.0% | 10.4% | 1.6% | .274 | 4.63 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 62 | +1.27 | 3.36 | 206 | 87 |
| Scott Oberg R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.24 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .260 | 2.93 | 23.8% | 16.4% | 188 | -0.31 | 2.59 | 302 | 87 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 83 |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2028 · 3.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.38 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 2.1% | .265 | 4.49 | 17.9% | 6.5% | 61 | +1.11 | 3.38 | 173 | 83 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.86 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .242 | 2.97 | 25.1% | 15.7% | 62 | -0.89 | 2.97 | 167 | 83 |
| Seth Simmons R 2027 · 3.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.07 | 23.8% | 9.7% | 1.4% | .277 | 4.88 | 16.6% | 7.6% | 175 | +1.81 | 3.07 | 251 | 83 |
| Luis García R 2028 · 3.21 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.21 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 1.2% | .327 | 3.19 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 187 | -0.02 | 2.26 | 602 | 82 |
| Blake Smith R 2027 · 3.18 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.18 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 1.3% | .290 | 3.63 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 71 | +0.45 | 3.18 | 124 | 82 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.05 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.28 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.23 | 3.34 | 187 | 82 |
| Jeff Johnson R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.18 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 1.3% | .284 | 3.71 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 55 | +0.53 | 2.49 | 160 | 82 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2028 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 82 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .273 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.31 | 3.70 | 187 | 82 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.84 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 206 | 81 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 81 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2028 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.73 | 3.25 | 150 | 81 |
| Orion Kerkering R 2024 · 3.30 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.30 | 24.4% | 9.0% | 2.0% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.89 | 165 | 80 |
| R.J. Alaniz R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .318 | 3.29 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 96 | -0.61 | 2.45 | 362 | 80 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 80 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 1.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2031
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.0 | $8M | +$7M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.8 | $3M | +$1.0M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $4M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $5M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $10M | $20M | +$11M | ||