Juan Mejia — OGILVIE

Juan Mejia P Colorado Rockies

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs MLB peak 0.7 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION63 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112103vR 95

ERA3.84

FIP3.78

K%23.1%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%12.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8496.9

Whiff%

p4224.2%

p3219.5%

xwOBA vs

p270.339

SI (5%)

CH (2%)

SL (39%)

FB-2.2 (59%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	16	1	32	132	27	11	3	6%	2.0	13.9%	10.4%	3.5%	3.2%	2.84	4.99	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	16	1	32	132	27	11	3	6%	2.0	20.5%	8.3%	12.1%	2.3%	2.84	3.67	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	13	13	58	258	61	22	5	100%	4.5	16.1%	10.7%	5.4%	2.7%	5.43	4.58	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	13	13	58	258	61	22	5	100%	4.5	23.6%	8.5%	15.1%	1.9%	5.43	3.26	—
2021	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	43	1	47	213	66	23	2	2%	1.1	22.9%	12.7%	10.2%	1.0%	4.82	3.33	—
2021	21	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	43	1	47	213	66	23	2	2%	1.1	31.0%	10.8%	20.2%	0.9%	4.82	2.31	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	50	220	60	26	4	0%	1.1	20.4%	13.8%	6.6%	2.1%	4.68	4.29	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	50	220	60	26	4	0%	1.1	27.3%	11.8%	15.5%	1.8%	4.68	3.30	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	59	269	86	32	4	0%	1.2	24.9%	13.5%	11.4%	1.8%	5.06	3.67	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	59	269	86	32	4	0%	1.2	24.9%	13.5%	11.4%	1.8%	5.06	3.67	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	59	269	86	32	4	0%	1.2	32.0%	11.9%	20.1%	1.5%	5.06	2.69	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	47	0	54	243	65	28	3	0%	1.1	21.7%	12.7%	9.0%	1.6%	5.00	3.76	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	47	0	54	243	65	28	3	0%	1.1	21.7%	12.7%	9.0%	1.6%	5.00	3.76	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Hartford Yard Goats	47	0	54	243	65	28	3	0%	1.1	26.7%	11.5%	15.2%	1.2%	5.00	2.97	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	0	75	317	90	29	6	0%	1.1	27.2%	9.0%	18.2%	1.7%	4.10	2.86	+1.5
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	0	75	317	90	29	6	0%	1.1	27.2%	9.0%	18.2%	1.7%	4.10	2.86	+1.5
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	65	0	75	317	90	29	6	0%	1.1	28.4%	9.1%	19.2%	1.9%	4.10	2.90	+1.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			114	1	124	554	125	61	12	1%	1.1	22.6%	11.0%	11.6%	2.2%	4.72	3.82	+1.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	59	1	63	293	57	37	6	2%	1.1	19.5%	12.6%	6.8%	1.8%	5.46	4.05	+0.4
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	59	1	63	293	57	37	6	2%	1.1	19.5%	12.6%	6.8%	1.8%	5.46	4.05	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	MLB RAW	COL	59	1	63	293	57	37	6	2%	1.1	19.5%	12.6%	6.8%	2.0%	5.46	4.18	+0.3
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	COL	59	1	63	293	57	37	6	2%	1.1	19.5%	12.6%	6.8%	2.0%	5.46	4.18	+0.3
ROS	26	MLB MLE	COL	6	0	6	27	6	3	1	0%	1.1	23.1%	10.9%	12.2%	2.3%	3.84	3.78	+0.1
ROS	26	MLB CTX	COL	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	23.1%	10.9%	12.2%	2.3%	3.84	3.78	+0.1
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	COL	—	—	69	320	63	40	7	—	—	19.8%	12.5%	7.3%	2.1%	5.31	4.03	+0.5
FULL	26	MLB A+C	COL	—	—	69	291	63	40	7	—	—	21.7%	13.7%	8.0%	2.3%	5.31	4.25	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	COL	68	0	71	299	71	33	7	0%	1.0	23.8%	11.1%	12.7%	2.3%	4.13	4.12	+0.4
2028	28	MLB MLE	COL	66	0	69	290	69	33	7	0%	1.0	23.7%	11.2%	12.5%	2.4%	4.18	4.21	+0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	COL	63	0	66	277	64	32	7	0%	1.0	23.1%	11.4%	11.6%	2.5%	4.29	4.37	+0.1
2030	30	MLB MLE	COL	59	0	62	261	58	31	7	0%	1.0	22.4%	11.7%	10.6%	2.7%	4.46	4.58	-0.0
2027	27	MLB CTX	COL	64	0	67	283	67	31	6	0%	1.0	23.8%	11.1%	12.7%	2.3%	4.13	4.12	+0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	COL	62	0	65	274	65	31	7	0%	1.0	23.7%	11.2%	12.5%	2.4%	4.18	4.21	+0.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	COL	59	0	62	262	60	30	7	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.4%	11.6%	2.5%	4.29	4.37	+0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	COL	56	0	59	249	56	29	7	0%	1.1	22.4%	11.7%	10.6%	2.7%	4.46	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		362	1	384	1652	380	185	39	0%	1.1	23.0%	11.2%	11.8%	2.4%	4.40	3.88	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		188	1	200	860	198	96	20	0%	1.1	23.0%	11.2%	11.8%	2.4%	4.40	3.88	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		335	16	436	1945	417	231	37	5%	1.3	21.4%	11.9%	9.5%	1.9%	4.76	3.85	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		154	7	200	892	191	106	17	5%	1.3	21.4%	11.9%	9.5%	1.9%	4.76	3.85	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Mejia (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.61	28.0%	9.6%	2.3%	—	4.23	23.5%	12.3%	205	+0.62	—	—	—
José Ramírez R 2016 · 3.36 FIP	26	SU	3.36	23.0%	10.4%	1.6%	.274	4.56	21.7%	10.8%	62	+1.20	3.36	206	88
Scott Oberg R 2016 · 3.19 FIP	26	SU	3.19	22.9%	9.1%	1.6%	.260	2.92	23.8%	16.4%	188	-0.27	2.54	302	85
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	85
Jhan Mariñez R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	26	SU	3.50	23.1%	9.3%	2.1%	.244	3.70	18.9%	11.1%	168	+0.20	3.16	253	85
Blake Treinen R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	27	SU	3.10	23.2%	9.3%	1.4%	.314	2.62	26.4%	19.2%	223	-0.48	1.53	547	83
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	83
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	83
Blake Smith R 2015 · 3.17 FIP	27	SU	3.17	23.3%	10.5%	1.3%	.290	3.59	22.4%	13.8%	71	+0.42	3.17	124	83
Luis García R 2015 · 3.23 FIP	28	SU	3.23	20.7%	9.5%	1.2%	.327	3.22	21.6%	12.8%	187	-0.01	2.33	617	83
Dustin Antolin R 2016 · 3.43 FIP	26	SU	3.43	23.9%	13.1%	1.3%	.286	4.35	16.2%	1.8%	50	+0.92	2.95	159	82
Jeff Johnson R 2016 · 3.18 FIP	26	SU	3.18	21.9%	9.6%	1.3%	.284	3.69	23.6%	8.0%	55	+0.51	2.49	160	82
Colton Murray R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	26	SU	3.97	21.2%	9.4%	2.7%	.295	4.27	21.8%	13.1%	41	+0.30	3.34	187	82
Jeff Ames R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	26	SU	3.94	25.1%	13.4%	2.3%	.310	4.65	25.4%	10.8%	79	+0.71	3.85	272	81
José A. Váldez R 2016 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	22.2%	13.1%	2.9%	.205	4.22	19.6%	8.3%	211	-0.28	4.02	328	81
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	81
Brooks Kriske R 2019 · 3.47 FIP	25	SU	3.47	26.1%	12.2%	1.9%	.245	4.95	28.6%	16.5%	41	+1.48	3.15	246	81
Brad Goldberg R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	26	SU	3.83	18.1%	10.8%	1.6%	.269	3.87	23.3%	7.2%	89	+0.04	3.14	197	81
Seth Simmons R 2015 · 3.07 FIP	27	SU	3.07	23.8%	9.7%	1.4%	.277	4.87	16.6%	7.6%	175	+1.80	3.07	251	81
Randall Delgado R 2016 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	20.2%	9.8%	2.4%	.303	4.07	19.2%	12.5%	143	+0.14	3.09	290	81
Bruce Rondón R 2017 · 3.46 FIP	26	SU	3.46	24.6%	13.7%	1.3%	.364	3.31	26.0%	9.8%	30	-0.15	3.31	184	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	24.3%	11.0%	0.95	4.13
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64