Juan Mejia
P
Colorado Rockies
Age 26
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.7 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION42 act + 30 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10293vR 84
ERA3.46
FIP3.40
K%25.8%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%15.8%
ROS IP30
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9097.4
Whiff%
p6227.1%
K%
p5423.0%
xwOBA vs
p450.317
SI (7%)
CH (3%)
SL (41%)
FB-2.2 (56%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rockies | 16 | 1 | 32 | 132 | 27 | 11 | 3 | 6% | 2.0 | 13.9% | 10.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.84 | 4.99 | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rockies | 16 | 1 | 32 | 132 | 27 | 11 | 3 | 6% | 2.0 | 20.5% | 8.3% | 12.1% | 2.3% | 2.84 | 3.67 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Colorado | 13 | 13 | 58 | 258 | 61 | 22 | 5 | 100% | 4.5 | 16.1% | 10.7% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 5.43 | 4.58 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Colorado | 13 | 13 | 58 | 258 | 61 | 22 | 5 | 100% | 4.5 | 23.6% | 8.5% | 15.1% | 1.9% | 5.43 | 3.26 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 43 | 1 | 47 | 213 | 66 | 23 | 2 | 2% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 12.7% | 10.2% | 0.9% | 4.82 | 3.24 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 43 | 1 | 47 | 213 | 66 | 23 | 2 | 2% | 1.1 | 31.0% | 10.8% | 20.2% | 0.9% | 4.82 | 2.31 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 50 | 220 | 60 | 26 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 13.8% | 6.6% | 2.0% | 4.68 | 4.24 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 50 | 220 | 60 | 26 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.3% | 11.8% | 15.5% | 1.8% | 4.68 | 3.30 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 59 | 269 | 86 | 32 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.9% | 13.5% | 11.4% | 1.7% | 5.06 | 3.63 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 59 | 269 | 86 | 32 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 32.0% | 11.9% | 20.1% | 1.5% | 5.06 | 2.69 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 47 | 0 | 54 | 243 | 65 | 28 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 12.7% | 9.0% | 1.8% | 5.00 | 3.85 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 47 | 0 | 54 | 243 | 65 | 28 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.7% | 11.5% | 15.2% | 1.2% | 5.00 | 2.97 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 65 | 0 | 75 | 317 | 90 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.6% | 9.2% | 18.3% | 1.5% | 4.10 | 2.74 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 65 | 0 | 75 | 317 | 90 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.4% | 9.1% | 19.2% | 1.9% | 4.10 | 2.90 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 38 | 1 | 42 | 191 | 44 | 20 | 4 | 3% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 2.1% | 5.74 | 3.63 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | COL | 28 | 0 | 30 | 125 | 32 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.8% | 10.0% | 15.8% | 2.2% | 3.46 | 3.40 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | COL | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 33 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.8% | 10.0% | 15.8% | 2.6% | 3.65 | 3.59 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | COL | — | — | 72 | 316 | 76 | 32 | 7 | — | — | 24.1% | 10.3% | 13.9% | 2.1% | 4.80 | 3.54 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | COL | — | — | 72 | 304 | 76 | 32 | 7 | — | — | 25.1% | 10.7% | 14.4% | 2.4% | 4.88 | 3.63 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | COL | 68 | 0 | 71 | 299 | 79 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.2% | 10.1% | 16.2% | 2.3% | 3.79 | 3.78 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | COL | 66 | 0 | 69 | 290 | 76 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.1% | 10.2% | 15.9% | 2.4% | 3.84 | 3.87 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | COL | 63 | 0 | 66 | 277 | 71 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.5% | 10.4% | 15.1% | 2.5% | 3.95 | 4.03 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | COL | 59 | 0 | 62 | 261 | 65 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.8% | 10.7% | 14.1% | 2.7% | 4.12 | 4.23 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | COL | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 74 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.2% | 10.1% | 16.2% | 2.6% | 3.98 | 3.97 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | COL | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 72 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.1% | 10.2% | 15.9% | 2.7% | 4.04 | 4.07 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | COL | 59 | 0 | 62 | 262 | 67 | 27 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.5% | 10.4% | 15.1% | 2.9% | 4.16 | 4.24 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | COL | 56 | 0 | 59 | 249 | 62 | 27 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.8% | 10.7% | 14.1% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 363 | 1 | 387 | 1649 | 420 | 167 | 44 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.5% | 10.1% | 15.3% | 2.6% | 4.24 | 3.69 | +7.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 188 | 1 | 200 | 852 | 217 | 86 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.5% | 10.1% | 15.3% | 2.6% | 4.24 | 3.69 | +4.0 | ||
| Career | — | 314 | 16 | 416 | 1843 | 405 | 215 | 35 | 5% | 1.3 | 22.0% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 1.9% | 4.76 | 3.76 | +8.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 151 | 8 | 200 | 886 | 195 | 103 | 17 | 5% | 1.3 | 22.0% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 1.9% | 4.76 | 3.76 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juan Mejia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.57 | 28.3% | 9.7% | 2.3% | — | 3.89 | 26.0% | 15.7% | 205 | +0.32 | — | — | — |
| José Ramírez R 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.28 | 23.0% | 10.4% | 1.5% | .274 | 4.56 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 62 | +1.28 | 3.28 | 206 | 85 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.46 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .244 | 3.76 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.30 | 3.23 | 253 | 85 |
| Blake Treinen R 2027 · 3.10 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.10 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 1.4% | .314 | 2.59 | 26.4% | 19.2% | 223 | -0.51 | 1.51 | 544 | 84 |
| Scott Oberg R 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.07 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 1.4% | .260 | 2.79 | 23.8% | 16.4% | 188 | -0.28 | 2.42 | 302 | 83 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 82 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 82 |
| Brooks Kriske R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.52 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .245 | 5.01 | 28.6% | 16.5% | 41 | +1.49 | 3.00 | 246 | 82 |
| Seth Simmons R 2027 · 3.06 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.06 | 23.8% | 9.7% | 1.4% | .277 | 4.93 | 16.6% | 7.6% | 175 | +1.87 | 3.06 | 251 | 82 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.77 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .242 | 3.56 | 22.5% | 12.4% | 100 | -0.21 | 3.05 | 205 | 81 |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2028 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .265 | 4.48 | 17.9% | 6.5% | 61 | +1.02 | 3.46 | 173 | 81 |
| Blake Wood R 2029 · 3.05 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.05 | 24.5% | 10.5% | 1.3% | .325 | 3.66 | 24.9% | 14.9% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.05 | 210 | 81 |
| Kaleb Fleck R 2026 · 2.67 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.67 | 25.8% | 9.8% | 0.9% | .331 | 3.87 | 21.8% | 13.2% | 125 | +1.20 | 2.67 | 177 | 81 |
| Blake Smith R 2027 · 3.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.08 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 1.1% | .290 | 3.66 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 71 | +0.58 | 3.08 | 124 | 81 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.62 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 1.8% | .291 | 6.27 | 19.1% | -8.3% | 16 | +2.65 | 3.05 | 134 | 81 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2027 · 3.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.04 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 1.4% | .330 | 3.26 | 23.6% | 14.6% | 81 | +0.22 | 2.42 | 125 | 81 |
| Pierce Johnson R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.20 | 27.8% | 11.7% | 1.8% | .374 | 3.75 | 25.0% | 13.7% | 86 | +0.55 | 2.83 | 577 | 80 |
| Alex Hoppe R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.88 | 22.8% | 12.7% | 2.0% | .327 | 2.96 | 24.1% | 11.8% | 38 | -0.92 | 2.96 | 214 | 80 |
| Yosver Zulueta R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.47 | 24.7% | 13.0% | 1.5% | .339 | 4.39 | 22.9% | 7.5% | 129 | +0.92 | 3.20 | 314 | 80 |
| Curtis Partch R 2028 · 2.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.85 | 25.9% | 9.9% | 1.2% | .345 | 3.14 | 21.7% | 9.2% | 60 | +0.29 | 2.85 | 124 | 80 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.34 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .273 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.18 | 3.57 | 187 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 68 | 26.2% | 10.2% | 0.94 | 3.86 |
| Wade Davis ('21) | 6 | 53 | 27.3% | 10.4% | 0.90 | 3.77 |
| Brad Brach ('21) | 6 | 62 | 25.6% | 10.5% | 0.84 | 3.50 |
| Cam Bedrosian ('21) | 6 | 45 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 0.97 | 3.68 |
| David Phelps ('22) | 6 | 62 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 0.87 | 3.55 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Archie Bradley ('21) | 6 | 74 | 23.2% | 9.8% | 0.85 | 3.93 |