Juan Mejia

P Colorado Rockies

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs MLB peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	AACOL	47	0	54	5.00	2.97	26.7%	11.5%	—	K 21.7% · BB 12.7% · FIP 3.76
2025	25	MIX2 levels	65	0	75	4.10	2.90	28.4%	9.1%	1.5	K 27.4% · BB 9.0% · FIP 2.84
2026	26	MLBCOL	65	1	70	5.27	3.91	20.4%	11.5%	0.5
2027PROJ	27	MLBCOL	54	0	57	4.06	3.92	24.8%	10.6%	0.4
2028PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBCOL	39	0	41	4.03	4.00	24.7%	10.7%	0.3
2029PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBCOL	30	0	32	4.11	4.16	24.1%	10.9%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo84

K%38

xwOBA vs33

Form4.05 ERA (proj 4.06) · K 22.6% (proj 24.8%) · BB 9.7% (proj 10.6%) · last 60d · 13 IP through Oct 27

CompsJake Barrett (age 27) · Blake Treinen (age 27) · Taylor Williams (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 95

ERA4.06

FIP3.92

K%24.8%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%14.3%

Proj IP59

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8496.9

Whiff%

p3923.7%

p3820.4%

xwOBA vs

p330.332

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	16	1	32	132	27	11	3	6%	2.0	13.9%	10.4%	3.5%	3.2%	2.84	4.99	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	16	1	32	132	27	11	3	6%	2.0	20.5%	8.3%	12.1%	2.3%	2.84	3.67	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	13	13	58	258	61	22	5	100%	4.5	16.1%	10.7%	5.4%	2.7%	5.43	4.58	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	13	13	58	258	61	22	5	100%	4.5	23.6%	8.5%	15.1%	1.9%	5.43	3.26	—
2021	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	43	1	47	213	66	23	2	2%	1.1	22.9%	12.7%	10.2%	1.0%	4.82	3.33	—
2021	21	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	43	1	47	213	66	23	2	2%	1.1	31.0%	10.8%	20.2%	0.9%	4.82	2.31	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	50	220	60	26	4	0%	1.1	20.4%	13.8%	6.6%	2.1%	4.68	4.29	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	50	220	60	26	4	0%	1.1	27.3%	11.8%	15.5%	1.8%	4.68	3.30	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	59	269	86	32	4	0%	1.2	24.9%	13.5%	11.4%	1.8%	5.06	3.67	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	59	269	86	32	4	0%	1.2	32.0%	11.9%	20.1%	1.5%	5.06	2.69	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	47	0	54	243	65	28	3	0%	1.1	21.7%	12.7%	9.0%	1.6%	5.00	3.76	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	47	0	54	243	65	28	3	0%	1.1	21.7%	12.7%	9.0%	1.6%	5.00	3.76	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Hartford Yard Goats	47	0	54	243	65	28	3	0%	1.1	26.7%	11.5%	15.2%	1.2%	5.00	2.97	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	0	75	317	90	29	6	0%	1.1	27.4%	9.0%	18.4%	1.7%	4.10	2.84	+1.5
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	0	75	317	90	29	6	0%	1.1	27.4%	9.0%	18.4%	1.7%	4.10	2.84	+1.5
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	65	0	75	317	90	29	6	0%	1.1	28.4%	9.1%	19.2%	1.9%	4.10	2.90	+1.5
2026	26	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	65	1	70	323	66	37	6	2%	1.1	20.4%	11.5%	9.0%	1.6%	5.27	3.73	+0.7
2026	26	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	65	1	70	323	66	37	6	2%	1.1	20.4%	11.5%	9.0%	1.6%	5.27	3.73	+0.7
2026	26	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	65	1	70	323	66	37	6	2%	1.1	20.4%	11.5%	9.0%	1.9%	5.27	3.91	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			120	1	131	584	134	61	12	1%	1.1	22.9%	10.4%	12.5%	2.1%	4.66	3.64	+1.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	COL	54	0	57	241	60	25	5	0%	1.1	24.8%	10.6%	14.3%	2.2%	4.06	3.92	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	COL	41	0	44	184	45	20	4	0%	1.1	24.7%	10.7%	14.0%	2.3%	4.03	4.00	+0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	COL	32	0	33	140	34	15	3	0%	1.0	24.1%	10.9%	13.2%	2.4%	4.11	4.16	+0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	COL	39	0	41	173	43	19	4	0%	1.1	24.7%	10.7%	14.0%	2.3%	4.03	4.00	+0.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	COL	30	0	32	135	33	15	3	0%	1.1	24.1%	10.9%	13.2%	2.4%	4.11	4.16	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		189	1	204	892	209	94	19	1%	1.1	23.5%	10.6%	12.9%	2.2%	4.45	3.64	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		186	1	200	873	205	92	19	1%	1.1	23.5%	10.6%	12.9%	2.2%	4.45	3.64	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		341	16	444	1975	426	231	37	5%	1.3	21.6%	11.7%	9.9%	1.9%	4.75	3.80	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		154	7	200	890	192	104	17	5%	1.3	21.6%	11.7%	9.9%	1.9%	4.75	3.80	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 13 IPFIP 0.91 → 1.26 (+0.35)K% 39.3% → 33.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.29%	—	×0.860	33.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.93%	—	×0.900	8.04%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.017	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 0.91 → 1.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAHartford Yard Goats · 54 IPFIP 2.98 → 3.76 (+0.78)K% 26.7% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.75%	—	×0.810	21.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.52%	—	×1.100	12.67%
HR / BF /BF	1.23%	÷0.916	×1.200	1.62%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 2.98 → 3.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Spokane Indians · 43 IPFIP 2.68 → 3.68 (+1.00)K% 32.2% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.16%	—	×0.770	24.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.56%	—	×1.150	13.29%
HR / BF /BF	1.51%	÷1.047	×1.250	1.80%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 2.68 → 3.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAHartford Yard Goats · 16 IPFIP 2.86 → 3.65 (+0.79)K% 31.4% → 25.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.43%	—	×0.810	25.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.86%	—	×1.100	14.14%
HR / BF /BF	1.43%	÷1.040	×1.200	1.65%

Result: FIP 2.86 → 3.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AFresno Grizzlies · 34 IPFIP 2.93 → 4.12 (+1.19)K% 29.1% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.05%	—	×0.740	21.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.16%	—	×1.180	14.35%
HR / BF /BF	1.35%	÷0.947	×1.300	1.85%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 2.93 → 4.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Spokane Indians · 16 IPFIP 4.04 → 4.63 (+0.59)K% 23.6% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.61%	—	×0.770	18.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.150	12.78%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷1.316	×1.250	2.64%

Result: FIP 4.04 → 4.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AFresno Grizzlies · 47 IPFIP 2.37 → 3.33 (+0.96)K% 31.0% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.99%	—	×0.740	22.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.80%	—	×1.180	12.74%
HR / BF /BF	0.94%	÷1.218	×1.300	1.00%

Result: FIP 2.37 → 3.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKDSL Colorado · 58 IPFIP 3.25 → 4.58 (+1.33)K% 23.6% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.64%	—	×0.680	16.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.53%	—	×1.250	10.66%
HR / BF /BF	1.94%	÷1.000	×1.400	2.71%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.25 → 4.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Mejia (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.92	24.8%	10.6%	2.2%	—	4.07	24.5%	13.7%	77	+0.15	—	—	—
Jake Barrett R 2018 · 3.31 FIP	27	SU	3.31	26.1%	13.0%	1.4%	.266	1.48	29.8%	22.7%	15	-1.83	1.48	230	80
Blake Treinen R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	27	SU	3.10	23.2%	9.3%	1.4%	.314	2.62	26.4%	19.2%	223	-0.48	1.53	601	80
Taylor Williams R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	24.2%	8.9%	2.4%	.309	4.35	22.5%	12.7%	108	+0.83	2.51	309	80
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	80
Seth Simmons R 2015 · 3.07 FIP	27	SU	3.07	23.8%	9.7%	1.4%	.277	4.87	16.6%	7.6%	175	+1.80	3.07	251	80
Blake Smith R 2015 · 3.17 FIP	27	SU	3.17	23.3%	10.5%	1.3%	.290	3.59	22.4%	13.8%	71	+0.42	3.17	124	79
Jose Veras R 2008 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	24.9%	9.1%	2.8%	.281	4.10	23.8%	11.7%	169	+0.43	3.37	422	79
Scott Oberg R 2017 · 3.13 FIP	27	SU	3.13	20.8%	8.3%	1.3%	.359	2.82	25.1%	18.2%	130	-0.31	2.54	302	78
Will Vest R 2022 · 3.43 FIP	27	SU	3.43	23.2%	8.1%	2.3%	.309	2.91	25.4%	18.5%	200	-0.52	2.56	448	78
Matt Ramsey R 2017 · 3.25 FIP	27	SU	3.25	24.2%	9.6%	1.8%	.330	3.21	23.6%	14.6%	81	-0.04	2.42	125	78
Jared Burton R 2008 · 3.56 FIP	27	SU	3.56	22.6%	8.6%	2.3%	.292	3.51	17.0%	10.6%	59	-0.05	3.09	367	78
Yosver Zulueta R 2024 · 3.35 FIP	26	SU	3.35	24.3%	11.5%	1.6%	.339	4.16	24.0%	12.2%	105	+0.81	3.19	290	78
Jeff Zimmerman R 2000 · 4.08 FIP	27	SU	4.08	22.9%	9.6%	3.1%	.337	3.58	26.4%	20.9%	71	-0.50	3.58	229	78
Ryan Garton R 2017 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	25.2%	11.3%	2.3%	.252	4.15	23.5%	10.8%	108	+0.48	3.14	307	78
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	77
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2011 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	22.1%	9.6%	1.5%	.253	3.18	22.9%	13.4%	218	-0.10	2.72	398	77
Austin Ross R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	27	SU	3.81	22.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.295	3.67	12.4%	5.2%	127	-0.14	3.16	269	77
Kyle Barraclough R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	27	SU	3.42	26.6%	12.2%	1.8%	.282	4.99	24.5%	12.2%	89	+1.57	1.95	523	77
José A. Váldez R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	27	SU	4.39	21.6%	8.3%	3.8%	.325	4.15	18.8%	6.4%	153	-0.24	4.02	328	77
Adam Ottavino R 2013 · 2.84 FIP	27	SU	2.84	23.3%	7.8%	1.3%	.301	2.65	27.8%	22.0%	92	-0.19	2.10	733	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	53	23.8%	10.9%	0.84	4.36
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Blake Wood ('18)	1.4	72	21.7%	11.2%	0.90	4.47
Bob Allen ('61-'67, -1 WAR*)	1.4	55	21.4%*	10.4%*	0.89*	4.79*
Horacio Pina ('68-'78, 2 WAR*)	2.2	62	20.7%*	11.2%*	0.84*	4.01*
Dave Geisel ('78-'85, 2 WAR*)	1.0	42	23.5%*	10.6%*	0.84*	4.12*