Spencer Bengard

P Wichita Wind Surge

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	19	8	83	1.51	2.50	22.0%	4.3%	—	K 16.4% · BB 5.0% · FIP 3.21
2025	23	MIX2 levels	18	2	52	3.96	2.91	26.6%	8.3%	—	K 19.7% · BB 9.8% · FIP 4.03
2026	24	AAMIN	38	1	61	5.28	3.87	23.8%	10.7%	—	K 19.3% · BB 11.7% · FIP 4.60
2027PROJ	25	MLBMIN	67	0	70	4.81	4.81	18.8%	10.3%	-0.2
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBMIN	30	0	31	4.75	4.74	19.4%	10.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBMIN	42	0	44	4.74	4.75	19.7%	10.2%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control50Command50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsJarret Whorff (age 25) · Emmanuel Chapman (age 25) · Conor Steinbaugh (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 108

ERA4.81

FIP4.81

K%18.8%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%8.4%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	2	1	2	8	3	1	0	50%	1.0	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.52	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	2	1	2	8	3	1	0	50%	1.0	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.60	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	8	83	328	72	14	4	42%	4.4	16.4%	5.0%	11.4%	1.6%	1.51	3.21	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	8	83	328	72	14	4	42%	4.4	16.4%	5.0%	11.4%	1.6%	1.51	3.21	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	8	83	328	72	14	4	42%	4.4	22.0%	4.3%	17.7%	1.2%	1.51	2.50	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	2	52	218	58	18	4	11%	2.9	19.7%	9.8%	9.9%	2.5%	3.96	4.03	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	2	52	218	58	18	4	11%	2.9	19.7%	9.8%	9.9%	2.5%	3.96	4.03	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	2	52	218	58	18	4	11%	2.9	26.6%	8.3%	18.3%	1.8%	3.96	2.91	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	38	1	61	281	67	30	7	3%	1.6	19.3%	11.7%	7.6%	3.0%	5.28	4.60	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	38	1	61	281	67	30	7	3%	1.6	19.3%	11.7%	7.6%	3.0%	5.28	4.60	—
2026	24	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	38	1	61	281	67	30	7	3%	1.6	23.8%	10.7%	13.2%	2.5%	5.28	3.87	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	MIN	67	0	70	296	55	31	9	0%	1.0	18.8%	10.3%	8.4%	2.9%	4.81	4.81	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIN	67	0	70	296	57	30	9	0%	1.0	19.4%	10.2%	9.2%	2.9%	4.75	4.74	-0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIN	66	0	69	291	57	30	9	0%	1.0	19.7%	10.2%	9.5%	3.0%	4.74	4.75	-0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIN	64	0	67	282	56	29	9	0%	1.0	19.8%	10.3%	9.5%	3.1%	4.77	4.81	-0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIN	61	0	64	270	53	28	9	0%	1.0	19.6%	10.5%	9.1%	3.2%	4.86	4.93	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIN	30	0	31	131	25	13	4	0%	1.0	19.4%	10.2%	9.2%	2.9%	4.75	4.74	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIN	42	0	44	186	37	19	6	0%	1.0	19.7%	10.2%	9.5%	3.0%	4.74	4.75	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIN	49	0	51	215	43	22	7	0%	1.0	19.8%	10.3%	9.5%	3.1%	4.77	4.81	-0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIN	50	0	52	220	43	23	7	0%	1.0	19.6%	10.5%	9.1%	3.2%	4.86	4.93	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		169	0	177	748	147	77	23	0%	1.0	19.7%	10.3%	9.4%	3.1%	4.79	4.44	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	166	87	26	0%	1.1	19.7%	10.3%	9.4%	3.1%	4.79	4.44	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		77	12	199	835	154	72	19	16%	2.6	18.4%	8.6%	9.8%	2.3%	3.30	3.87	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		77	12	200	839	155	72	19	16%	2.6	18.4%	8.6%	9.8%	2.3%	3.30	3.87	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Spencer Bengard (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.81	18.8%	10.3%	2.9%	—	4.77	19.6%	9.4%	206	-0.04	—	—	—
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	91
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	91
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	89
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	89
Adam Warren R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	19.3%	8.5%	2.8%	.306	3.43	20.5%	13.1%	275	-0.66	2.65	548	88
Ross Ohlendorf R 2008 · 4.73 FIP	25	SW	4.73	16.3%	9.3%	3.3%	.357	4.63	15.4%	7.7%	324	-0.10	3.30	617	87
Wil Jensen R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	25	SU	4.88	20.2%	12.1%	3.5%	.284	3.48	22.7%	14.3%	84	-1.40	3.48	368	86
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.24	23.5%	12.2%	22	+0.82	4.42	152	86
Jordan Milbrath R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	19.9%	10.4%	2.4%	.272	3.61	19.6%	9.7%	129	-0.44	3.19	386	85
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	85
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	85
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	85
Taylor Grover R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	17.5%	8.4%	1.8%	.317	4.92	19.4%	9.1%	89	+1.24	3.68	239	85
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	85
D.J. Carrasco R 2003 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	16.1%	10.1%	2.2%	.291	4.66	10.5%	1.4%	150	+0.39	3.23	490	85
Daniel Blair R 2024 · 4.39 FIP	25	SU	4.39	17.0%	9.2%	2.8%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	171	84
Andrew Bellatti R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	19.3%	8.8%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.67	278	84
Layne Somsen R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.5%	12.5%	1.3%	.265	4.00	19.9%	6.7%	92	+0.26	3.66	154	84
Dylan Simmons R 2024 · 3.85 FIP	23	SU	3.85	17.8%	9.4%	1.9%	.295	5.10	12.7%	0.6%	74	+1.25	3.85	125	83
Stephen Kohlscheen R 2015 · 3.83 FIP	26	SU	3.83	15.6%	8.1%	1.9%	.311	3.98	22.8%	15.0%	90	+0.15	2.52	167	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	19.5%	10.3%	1.17	4.78
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Mark Lowe ('16)	1.9	64	20.9%	9.7%	1.10	4.22
Luis Vizcaino ('09)	2.7	68	21.0%	10.1%	1.30	4.33
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*