Victor Santos — OGILVIE

Victor Santos P Memphis Redbirds

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 240 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 53 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.86

FIP4.86

K%16.4%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%7.4%

ROS IP54

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	12	9	49	202	38	5	1	75%	4.1	12.8%	3.1%	9.7%	0.7%	2.57	2.79	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	12	9	49	202	38	5	1	75%	4.1	18.8%	2.5%	16.3%	0.5%	2.57	2.12	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies East	11	11	59	240	65	4	4	100%	5.4	18.4%	2.1%	16.3%	2.3%	3.03	3.09	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies East	11	11	59	240	65	4	4	100%	5.4	27.1%	1.7%	25.4%	1.7%	3.03	1.99	—
2019	19	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	27	13	105	433	89	18	11	48%	3.9	15.2%	4.9%	10.3%	4.1%	4.02	4.68	—
2019	19	A RAW	Lakewood BlueClaws	27	13	105	433	89	18	11	48%	3.9	20.6%	4.2%	16.4%	2.5%	4.02	3.28	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	13	86	354	85	15	9	57%	3.8	19.2%	4.7%	14.4%	3.3%	2.40	3.91	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	13	86	354	85	15	9	57%	3.8	24.0%	4.2%	19.8%	2.5%	2.40	3.01	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	25	145	611	126	34	23	89%	5.2	17.2%	6.0%	11.2%	4.5%	4.97	4.86	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	25	145	611	126	34	23	89%	5.2	20.6%	5.6%	15.1%	3.8%	4.97	4.13	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	33	8	77	334	60	33	9	24%	2.3	14.9%	8.9%	6.0%	2.9%	5.61	4.56	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	33	8	77	334	60	33	9	24%	2.3	14.9%	8.9%	6.0%	2.9%	5.61	4.56	—
2024	24	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	33	8	77	334	60	33	9	24%	2.3	18.0%	9.9%	8.1%	2.7%	5.61	4.35	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	17	0	23	96	19	11	2	0%	1.4	17.3%	12.1%	5.3%	1.6%	2.74	4.07	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	17	0	23	96	19	11	2	0%	1.4	17.3%	12.1%	5.3%	1.6%	2.74	4.07	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	ROK RAW	STL	2	0	3	10	2	0	0	0%	1.5	20.0%	0.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.41	—
2026	26	A RAW	STL	2	0	1	5	1	0	0	0%	0.7	20.0%	0.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.41	—
2026	26	A+ RAW	STL	3	0	3	14	2	2	1	0%	1.0	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	7.1%	6.00	7.62	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	STL	10	0	16	67	14	9	1	0%	1.6	20.9%	13.4%	7.5%	1.5%	2.87	3.86	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	STL	65	0	68	288	49	26	9	0%	1.1	17.1%	9.1%	8.0%	3.0%	4.83	4.85	-0.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	STL	63	0	66	280	49	26	9	0%	1.1	17.4%	9.2%	8.2%	3.1%	4.85	4.89	-0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	STL	60	0	63	267	47	25	9	0%	1.1	17.5%	9.4%	8.1%	3.3%	4.92	4.99	-0.3
2027	27	MLB CTX	STL	28	0	29	122	21	11	4	0%	1.0	17.1%	9.1%	8.0%	3.0%	4.83	4.85	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	STL	39	0	41	173	30	16	5	0%	1.1	17.4%	9.2%	8.2%	3.1%	4.85	4.89	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	STL	44	0	46	194	34	18	6	0%	1.0	17.5%	9.4%	8.1%	3.3%	4.92	4.99	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		111	0	117	492	86	46	16	0%	1.1	17.4%	9.3%	8.1%	3.2%	4.87	4.54	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	147	79	27	0%	1.1	17.4%	9.3%	8.1%	3.2%	4.87	4.54	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		151	79	545	2270	376	127	75	52%	3.6	16.5%	5.6%	10.9%	3.3%	3.95	4.23	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	29	200	833	138	47	28	52%	3.6	16.5%	5.6%	10.9%	3.3%	3.95	4.23	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Victor Santos (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	16.4%	9.0%	3.0%	—	4.91	17.3%	8.1%	198	+0.05	—	—	—
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	85
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	85
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	83
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	82
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	82
Phil Klein R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	26	SW	3.86	18.1%	11.0%	1.6%	.280	3.10	24.5%	17.9%	97	-0.76	3.10	178	81
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	81
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	80
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	80
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	80
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	80
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	80
Jake Dunning R 2015 · 5.60 FIP	26	SP-	5.60	13.4%	9.6%	4.4%	.354	4.29	14.1%	2.8%	74	-1.31	4.19	120	80
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	80
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	80
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	80
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	79
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.85	13.9%	4.7%	81	+1.14	4.43	239	79
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	79
Daniel Blair R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	16.6%	10.0%	2.1%	.284	4.39	17.0%	7.8%	78	+0.29	4.10	171	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	63	17.1%	9.2%	1.20	4.86
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41