Victor Santos
P
Memphis Redbirds
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 240 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION14 act + 54 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 106
ERA4.64
FIP4.64
K%20.1%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%10.3%
ROS IP54
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | DSL Phillies Red | 12 | 9 | 49 | 202 | 38 | 5 | 1 | 75% | 4.1 | 12.8% | 3.1% | 9.7% | 0.7% | 2.57 | 2.79 | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | DSL Phillies Red | 12 | 9 | 49 | 202 | 38 | 5 | 1 | 75% | 4.1 | 18.8% | 2.5% | 16.3% | 0.5% | 2.57 | 2.12 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | GCL Phillies East | 11 | 11 | 59 | 240 | 65 | 4 | 4 | 100% | 5.4 | 18.4% | 2.1% | 16.3% | 2.3% | 3.03 | 3.09 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | GCL Phillies East | 11 | 11 | 59 | 240 | 65 | 4 | 4 | 100% | 5.4 | 27.1% | 1.7% | 25.4% | 1.7% | 3.03 | 1.99 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | 27 | 13 | 105 | 433 | 89 | 18 | 11 | 48% | 3.9 | 15.2% | 4.9% | 10.3% | 5.3% | 4.02 | 5.37 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | 27 | 13 | 105 | 433 | 89 | 18 | 11 | 48% | 3.9 | 20.6% | 4.2% | 16.4% | 2.5% | 4.02 | 3.28 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 13 | 86 | 354 | 85 | 15 | 9 | 57% | 3.8 | 19.2% | 4.7% | 14.4% | 3.7% | 2.40 | 4.09 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 13 | 86 | 354 | 85 | 15 | 9 | 57% | 3.8 | 24.0% | 4.2% | 19.8% | 2.5% | 2.40 | 3.01 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 25 | 145 | 611 | 126 | 34 | 23 | 89% | 5.2 | 17.2% | 6.0% | 11.2% | 4.5% | 4.97 | 4.90 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 25 | 145 | 611 | 126 | 34 | 23 | 89% | 5.2 | 20.6% | 5.6% | 15.1% | 3.8% | 4.97 | 4.13 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 33 | 8 | 77 | 334 | 60 | 33 | 9 | 24% | 2.3 | 15.8% | 10.4% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 5.61 | 4.64 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 33 | 8 | 77 | 334 | 60 | 33 | 9 | 24% | 2.3 | 18.0% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 5.61 | 4.35 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 11 | 0 | 14 | 53 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | — | — | — | — | 2.63 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | STL | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 46 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.1% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.64 | 4.64 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | STL | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.64 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | STL | — | — | 68 | 281 | 53 | 28 | 9 | — | — | 18.8% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.23 | 3.70 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | STL | — | — | 5 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 20.1% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.64 | 4.26 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | STL | 51 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 46 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 4.65 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | STL | 49 | 0 | 52 | 217 | 45 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | STL | 47 | 0 | 49 | 208 | 42 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.75 | 4.82 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | STL | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | STL | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 28 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | STL | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 31 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.75 | 4.82 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 91 | 0 | 96 | 405 | 83 | 40 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.69 | 4.35 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 173 | 83 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.69 | 4.35 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 145 | 79 | 536 | 2227 | 369 | 127 | 82 | 54% | 3.7 | 16.6% | 5.7% | 10.9% | 3.7% | 3.97 | 4.45 | +5.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 29 | 200 | 831 | 138 | 47 | 31 | 54% | 3.7 | 16.6% | 5.7% | 10.9% | 3.7% | 3.97 | 4.45 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Victor Santos (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.64 | 20.1% | 9.7% | 3.0% | — | 4.72 | 20.4% | 10.5% | 154 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Dawson Netz R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 82 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 81 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .331 | 5.46 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.57 | 3.89 | 141 | 80 |
| Phil Klein R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 1.6% | .280 | 3.17 | 24.5% | 17.9% | 97 | -0.66 | 3.17 | 178 | 79 |
| Josh Roeder R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 78 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.94 | 16.6% | 9.8% | 3.7% | .285 | 6.04 | 14.5% | 4.2% | 81 | +1.10 | 4.52 | 239 | 78 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 78 |
| Jose Samayoa R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.56 | 16.6% | 9.9% | 1.1% | .286 | 4.12 | 17.3% | 9.4% | 226 | +0.56 | 3.56 | 262 | 78 |
| Nolan Sanburn R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.25 | 15.0% | 10.4% | 2.0% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 169 | 78 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 78 |
| Noah Bremer R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.24 | 18.0% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .292 | 5.88 | 13.1% | 1.2% | 46 | +1.64 | 3.14 | 271 | 78 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.60 | 17.9% | 12.2% | 2.7% | .285 | 4.61 | 16.4% | 5.3% | 48 | +0.01 | 4.60 | 529 | 77 |
| Caleb Bolden R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.52 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 1.1% | .341 | 3.55 | 23.0% | 13.0% | 41 | +0.03 | 3.06 | 222 | 77 |
| Jake Walkinshaw R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.66 | 17.5% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .296 | 4.92 | 13.3% | 3.1% | 116 | +0.26 | 2.20 | 286 | 77 |
| Chase Centala R 2024 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.16 | 17.4% | 6.6% | 3.1% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 124 | 76 |
| Preston Johnson R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 76 |
| Trent Baker R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.74 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .304 | 4.64 | 16.6% | 7.0% | 39 | +0.90 | 3.74 | 459 | 76 |
| Colby Morris R 2025 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 76 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 76 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.71 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.44 | 3.27 | 339 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 52 | 20.3% | 9.8% | 1.19 | 4.67 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |