Sam Carlson
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
+0.4
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 195 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.26
FIP4.26
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.7%
BB%11.6%
K-BB%12.1%
IP55
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.00 | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Modesto Nuts | 19 | 19 | 100 | 462 | 112 | 44 | 7 | 17.9% | 11.2% | 2.3% | 4.77 | 4.29 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Modesto Nuts | 16 | 11 | 57 | 251 | 60 | 24 | 4 | 17.7% | 11.3% | 2.3% | 4.61 | 4.31 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 39 | 1 | 48 | 200 | 61 | 20 | 3 | 23.5% | 11.5% | 1.9% | 5.25 | 3.59 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 44 | 0 | 49 | 217 | 51 | 19 | 2 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 0.9% | 4.25 | 3.20 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Oklahoma City Comets | 45 | 0 | 60 | 273 | 78 | 36 | 4 | 25.1% | 13.8% | 1.7% | 4.22 | 3.66 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 4 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.15 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | HOU | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 55 | 27 | 6 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.4% | 4.26 | 4.26 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 60 | 252 | 58 | 28 | 6 | 23.1% | 11.1% | 2.2% | 4.25 | 3.95 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 54 | 26 | 6 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 2.5% | 4.28 | 4.29 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 53 | 25 | 6 | 23.5% | 11.3% | 2.6% | 4.32 | 4.34 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 51 | 25 | 6 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.6% | 4.37 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 50 | — | 50 | 210 | 48 | 24 | 6 | 23.1% | 11.4% | 2.7% | 4.43 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 46 | 23 | 6 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 2.8% | 4.51 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 43 | 23 | 6 | 22.5% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 4.60 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 40 | 22 | 5 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 3.0% | 4.70 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 37 | 21 | 5 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 4.81 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 38 | — | 38 | 161 | 34 | 20 | 5 | 21.3% | 12.4% | 3.2% | 4.94 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 169 | 33 | 320 | 1435 | 290 | 163 | 27 | 20.2% | 11.4% | 1.9% | 4.61 | 3.86 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 106 | 21 | 200 | 896 | 181 | 102 | 17 | 20.2% | 11.4% | 1.9% | 4.61 | 3.86 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sam Carlson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.26 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.4% | — | 4.34 | 23.5% | 12.1% | 159 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 90 |
| Blake Smith R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.18 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 1.3% | .290 | 3.63 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 71 | +0.45 | 3.18 | 124 | 90 |
| Ryan Garton R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.62 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 2.2% | .252 | 4.15 | 23.5% | 10.8% | 108 | +0.53 | 3.07 | 307 | 87 |
| Seth Simmons R 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.07 | 23.8% | 9.7% | 1.4% | .277 | 4.88 | 16.6% | 7.6% | 175 | +1.81 | 3.07 | 251 | 87 |
| Grant Sides R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.83 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .247 | 3.31 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.52 | 3.31 | 159 | 87 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.41 | 24.9% | 14.5% | 2.9% | .360 | 5.38 | 15.3% | 3.1% | 58 | +0.97 | 3.46 | 173 | 86 |
| Cole Sulser R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.54 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 1.9% | .321 | 2.87 | 28.2% | 18.4% | 140 | -0.67 | 2.39 | 509 | 86 |
| Evan Gates R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.02 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 242 | 86 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2028 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.56 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.33 | 2.83 | 228 | 86 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.48 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.85 | 2.36 | 309 | 85 |
| Kyle Barraclough R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.36 | 26.6% | 12.2% | 1.7% | .282 | 5.08 | 24.5% | 12.2% | 89 | +1.72 | 1.95 | 523 | 85 |
| Alex Hoppe R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.89 | 22.8% | 12.7% | 2.0% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 176 | 85 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 84 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2027 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.73 | 3.25 | 150 | 84 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.86 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .280 | 4.05 | 28.5% | 17.2% | 107 | +0.19 | 3.02 | 363 | 84 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.21 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.20 | 23.6% | 14.6% | 81 | -0.01 | 2.42 | 125 | 83 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.82 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .230 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 149 | 83 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.80 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .295 | 3.70 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.10 | 3.17 | 269 | 83 |
| Jake Barrett R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.32 | 26.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .266 | 1.48 | 29.8% | 22.7% | 15 | -1.84 | 1.48 | 230 | 83 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2025 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.54 | 21.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 156 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.4M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.5M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $4M | $7M | +$3M | ||