Sam Carlson — OGILVIE

Sam Carlson P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 195 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION41 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115106vR 98

ERA4.28

FIP4.28

K%23.4%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%11.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	18	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	2	2	3	13	3	0	0	100%	1.5	23.1%	0.0%	23.1%	0.0%	3.00	1.15	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	2	2	3	13	3	0	0	100%	1.5	23.1%	0.0%	23.1%	0.0%	3.00	1.10	—
2021	22	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	19	19	100	462	112	44	7	100%	5.3	17.9%	11.2%	6.7%	2.3%	4.77	4.26	—
2021	22	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	19	19	100	462	112	44	7	100%	5.3	24.2%	9.5%	14.7%	1.5%	4.77	3.09	—
2022	23	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	16	11	57	251	60	24	4	69%	3.5	17.7%	11.3%	6.4%	2.4%	4.61	4.37	—
2022	23	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	16	11	57	251	60	24	4	69%	3.5	23.9%	9.6%	14.3%	1.6%	4.61	3.17	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	39	1	48	200	61	20	3	3%	1.2	23.5%	11.5%	12.0%	1.9%	5.25	3.59	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	39	1	48	200	61	20	3	3%	1.2	23.5%	11.5%	12.0%	1.9%	5.25	3.59	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	39	1	48	200	61	20	3	3%	1.2	30.5%	10.0%	20.5%	1.5%	5.25	2.62	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	44	0	49	217	51	19	2	0%	1.1	19.0%	9.6%	9.4%	0.9%	4.25	3.22	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	44	0	49	217	51	19	2	0%	1.1	19.0%	9.6%	9.4%	0.9%	4.25	3.22	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	44	0	49	217	51	19	2	0%	1.1	23.5%	8.8%	14.7%	0.9%	4.25	2.71	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	45	0	60	273	78	36	4	0%	1.3	23.7%	11.9%	11.8%	1.7%	4.22	3.53	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	45	0	60	273	78	36	4	0%	1.3	23.7%	11.9%	11.8%	1.7%	4.22	3.53	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Comets	45	0	60	273	78	36	4	0%	1.3	28.6%	13.2%	15.4%	1.5%	4.22	3.17	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	35	0	41	173	49	15	5	0%	1.2	23.8%	8.4%	15.4%	2.9%	3.98	3.76	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	35	0	41	173	49	15	5	0%	1.2	23.8%	8.4%	15.4%	2.9%	3.98	3.76	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AA RAW	HOU	4	0	4	23	6	1	1	0%	1.1	26.1%	4.3%	21.7%	4.3%	8.31	3.83	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	HOU	31	0	36	150	43	14	4	0%	1.2	28.7%	9.3%	19.3%	2.7%	3.47	3.33	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	HOU	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	23.4%	11.6%	11.9%	2.4%	4.28	4.28	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	47	198	55	18	6	—	—	27.7%	9.0%	18.7%	2.8%	4.02	3.83	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	HOU	111	0	116	491	114	56	13	0%	1.0	23.2%	11.3%	11.9%	2.6%	4.33	4.36	+0.3
2028	29	MLB MLE	HOU	106	0	111	470	107	53	13	0%	1.0	22.9%	11.3%	11.6%	2.7%	4.42	4.48	+0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	HOU	100	0	104	441	99	50	13	0%	1.0	22.5%	11.4%	11.1%	2.9%	4.55	4.65	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	HOU	47	0	49	207	48	23	5	0%	1.0	23.2%	11.3%	11.9%	2.6%	4.33	4.36	+0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	HOU	63	0	66	279	64	31	8	0%	1.0	22.9%	11.3%	11.6%	2.7%	4.42	4.48	+0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	HOU	70	0	74	312	70	36	9	0%	1.1	22.5%	11.4%	11.1%	2.9%	4.55	4.65	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		180	0	189	799	182	91	22	0%	1.1	22.8%	11.3%	11.4%	2.8%	4.45	4.13	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	96	23	0%	1.1	22.8%	11.3%	11.4%	2.8%	4.45	4.13	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		200	33	357	1589	324	171	32	16%	1.8	20.4%	10.8%	9.7%	2.0%	4.54	3.85	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		112	19	200	891	182	96	18	16%	1.8	20.4%	10.8%	9.7%	2.0%	4.54	3.85	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sam Carlson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.28	23.4%	11.6%	2.4%	—	4.49	22.8%	11.5%	332	+0.21	—	—	—
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	79
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	78
Austin Ross R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	27	SU	3.81	22.9%	8.0%	3.0%	.295	3.67	12.4%	5.2%	127	-0.14	3.16	269	77
Ryan Garton R 2017 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	25.2%	11.3%	2.3%	.252	4.15	23.5%	10.8%	108	+0.48	3.14	307	77
Blake Treinen R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	27	SU	3.10	23.2%	9.3%	1.4%	.314	2.62	26.4%	19.2%	223	-0.48	1.53	547	77
Justin De Fratus R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	27	SU	3.84	18.8%	8.3%	2.3%	.325	4.61	12.4%	6.9%	279	+0.77	3.84	500	77
Brad Brach R 2015 · 3.22 FIP	29	SU	3.22	27.5%	10.8%	1.9%	.259	3.13	25.6%	17.1%	210	-0.09	2.69	410	77
Cole Sulser R 2017 · 3.52 FIP	27	SU	3.52	22.6%	10.2%	1.9%	.321	2.85	28.2%	18.4%	140	-0.67	2.39	547	76
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	76
Gonzalez Germen R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	27	SU	4.24	18.0%	12.5%	1.9%	.296	3.88	19.2%	8.3%	54	-0.36	3.70	146	76
Danny Farquhar R 2015 · 3.85 FIP	28	SU	3.85	22.4%	6.8%	3.2%	.324	3.84	22.0%	12.8%	135	-0.01	3.62	224	75
Jaye Chapman R 2015 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	21.6%	8.5%	1.8%	.276	4.08	20.3%	11.3%	85	+0.76	3.25	150	75
Blake Smith R 2015 · 3.17 FIP	27	SU	3.17	23.3%	10.5%	1.3%	.290	3.59	22.4%	13.8%	71	+0.42	3.17	124	74
Al Alburquerque R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	29	SU	3.54	21.4%	11.1%	1.5%	.330	3.23	21.3%	12.5%	114	-0.31	2.84	228	74
Pierce Johnson R 2018 · 3.92 FIP	27	SU	3.92	22.4%	11.3%	2.3%	.269	3.00	32.2%	22.0%	79	-0.92	2.75	593	74
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	74
Jordan Milbrath R 2019 · 4.01 FIP	27	SU	4.01	21.5%	9.5%	2.8%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	386	74
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	73
Kevin Kopps R 2023 · 3.46 FIP	26	SU	3.46	20.1%	11.0%	1.2%	.344	5.03	13.4%	0.3%	112	+1.57	3.46	237	73
Nolan Clenney R 2023 · 4.79 FIP	27	SU	4.79	22.6%	10.1%	4.2%	.341	4.58	17.2%	7.5%	71	-0.21	3.73	223	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	113	23.0%	11.4%	1.02	4.39
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Kyle Wright ('23)	1.2	83	22.4%	8.9%	1.12	3.97
Alek Manoah ('24)	2.1	105	23.4%	9.0%	1.03	3.34
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94