Sam Carlson
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 195 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION29 act + 120 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 100
ERA4.39
FIP4.39
K%24.5%
BB%13.1%
K-BB%11.4%
ROS IP120
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 149 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.5 | 23.1% | 0.0% | 23.1% | 0.0% | 3.00 | 1.15 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.5 | 23.1% | 0.0% | 23.1% | 0.0% | 3.00 | 1.10 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Modesto Nuts | 19 | 19 | 100 | 462 | 112 | 44 | 7 | 100% | 5.3 | 17.9% | 11.2% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 4.77 | 4.51 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Modesto Nuts | 19 | 19 | 100 | 462 | 112 | 44 | 7 | 100% | 5.3 | 24.2% | 9.5% | 14.7% | 1.5% | 4.77 | 3.09 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Modesto Nuts | 16 | 11 | 57 | 251 | 60 | 24 | 4 | 69% | 3.5 | 17.7% | 11.3% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 4.61 | 4.64 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Modesto Nuts | 16 | 11 | 57 | 251 | 60 | 24 | 4 | 69% | 3.5 | 23.9% | 9.6% | 14.3% | 1.6% | 4.61 | 3.17 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 39 | 1 | 48 | 200 | 61 | 20 | 3 | 3% | 1.2 | 23.5% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 1.8% | 5.25 | 3.58 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 39 | 1 | 48 | 200 | 61 | 20 | 3 | 3% | 1.2 | 30.5% | 10.0% | 20.5% | 1.5% | 5.25 | 2.62 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 44 | 0 | 49 | 217 | 51 | 19 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 0.8% | 4.25 | 3.15 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 44 | 0 | 49 | 217 | 51 | 19 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 8.8% | 14.7% | 0.9% | 4.25 | 2.71 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Oklahoma City Comets | 45 | 0 | 60 | 273 | 78 | 36 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.1% | 13.8% | 11.3% | 1.8% | 4.22 | 3.70 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Oklahoma City Comets | 45 | 0 | 60 | 273 | 78 | 36 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 28.6% | 13.2% | 15.4% | 1.5% | 4.22 | 3.17 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 25 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 34 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.5% | 10.3% | 14.2% | 2.7% | 3.72 | 3.82 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | HOU | 114 | 0 | 120 | 507 | 124 | 66 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.5% | 13.1% | 11.4% | 2.4% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +1.4 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.5% | 13.1% | 11.4% | 2.4% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 149 | 629 | 158 | 78 | 15 | — | — | 25.1% | 12.4% | 12.7% | 2.4% | 4.26 | 4.28 | +2.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 12 | 51 | 12 | 7 | 1 | — | — | 24.5% | 13.1% | 11.4% | 2.4% | 4.39 | 4.01 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 111 | 0 | 116 | 491 | 119 | 62 | 13 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 12.7% | 11.4% | 2.6% | 4.42 | 4.46 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 106 | 0 | 111 | 470 | 111 | 59 | 13 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 2.7% | 4.50 | 4.57 | +1.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 50 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 12.7% | 11.4% | 2.6% | 4.42 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 63 | 0 | 66 | 279 | 66 | 35 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 2.7% | 4.50 | 4.57 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 121 | 0 | 127 | 537 | 129 | 68 | 14 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 2.6% | 4.46 | 4.13 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 107 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 2.6% | 4.46 | 4.13 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 190 | 33 | 345 | 1538 | 317 | 175 | 33 | 17% | 1.8 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 2.2% | 4.54 | 3.99 | +5.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 110 | 19 | 200 | 892 | 184 | 101 | 19 | 17% | 1.8 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 2.2% | 4.54 | 3.99 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sam Carlson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.39 | 24.5% | 13.1% | 2.4% | — | 4.51 | 23.9% | 11.3% | 228 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Evan Gates R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.87 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 2.1% | .312 | 4.34 | 18.5% | 10.4% | 35 | +0.47 | 3.74 | 277 | 78 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2028 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.56 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .283 | 4.38 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.82 | 3.56 | 104 | 76 |
| Ryan Garton R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.71 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .252 | 4.13 | 23.5% | 10.8% | 108 | +0.42 | 3.15 | 307 | 76 |
| Brad Brach R 2028 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.25 | 27.5% | 10.8% | 2.0% | .259 | 3.16 | 25.6% | 17.1% | 210 | -0.09 | 2.73 | 410 | 76 |
| Grant Sides R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.89 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.65 | 3.24 | 159 | 75 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .333 | 4.06 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.44 | 3.62 | 147 | 75 |
| Cole Sulser R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.43 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 1.7% | .321 | 2.78 | 28.2% | 18.4% | 140 | -0.65 | 2.29 | 538 | 74 |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.11 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .296 | 3.74 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 54 | -0.37 | 3.74 | 146 | 74 |
| Kyle Barraclough R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.42 | 26.6% | 12.2% | 1.8% | .282 | 5.00 | 24.5% | 12.2% | 89 | +1.58 | 1.95 | 523 | 74 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 24.9% | 14.5% | 2.7% | .360 | 5.09 | 15.3% | 3.1% | 58 | +0.79 | 3.42 | 173 | 74 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.86 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .295 | 3.60 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.26 | 3.19 | 269 | 74 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2024 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 73 |
| Pierce Johnson R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.93 | 22.4% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .269 | 3.14 | 32.2% | 22.0% | 79 | -0.79 | 2.83 | 577 | 73 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 72 |
| Zach McCambley R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.02 | 25.6% | 14.1% | 2.3% | .263 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.61 | 383 | 72 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .325 | 4.53 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.65 | 3.88 | 500 | 72 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.94 | 26.4% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .274 | 4.93 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 69 | +0.99 | 3.68 | 181 | 72 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2028 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.18 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.40 | 2.76 | 228 | 72 |
| Nick Ernst R 2024 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 117 | 72 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2027 · 3.36 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.36 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.03 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.27 | 150 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 116 | 24.1% | 12.8% | 0.99 | 4.44 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |