Michel Otañez

P Round Rock Express

Age 30 RHP 6'4" / 218 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MIX2 levels	65	0	71	4.44	2.64	34.2%	14.0%	1.6	K 31.8% · BB 13.2% · FIP 2.84
2025	28	MIX3 levels	25	0	23	8.87	5.37	28.8%	19.5%	-0.2	K 25.7% · BB 17.6% · FIP 4.33
2026	29	AAATEX	50	1	55	4.42	4.35	31.6%	17.9%	—	K 27.2% · BB 16.2% · FIP 4.66
2027PROJ	30	MLBTEX	59	0	62	3.72	3.94	34.4%	14.6%	0.5
2028PROJ61% MLB	31	MLBTEX	33	0	35	4.02	4.21	32.6%	14.4%	0.1
2029PROJ72% MLB	32	MLBTEX	36	0	38	4.29	4.47	31.1%	14.4%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff80Control25Command70FB velo65

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsRay Black (age 29) · Kazuhiro Sasaki (age 32) · Spencer Patton (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 92

ERA3.72

FIP3.94

K%34.4%

BB%14.6%

K-BB%19.8%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF8080

CTRL2525

CMD7070

K†8080

SI (36%)

SL-1.4 (36%)

FB-2.2 (64%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 1	5	5	21	90	21	6	0	100%	4.3	15.9%	8.3%	7.5%	0.0%	4.64	2.82	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	DSL Mets 1	5	5	21	90	21	6	0	100%	4.3	23.3%	6.7%	16.7%	0.0%	4.64	1.98	—
2018	21	ROK MLE	GCL Mets	11	7	35	180	33	24	2	64%	3.2	12.5%	16.7%	-4.2%	1.6%	7.64	5.01	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	GCL Mets	11	7	35	180	33	24	2	64%	3.2	18.3%	13.3%	5.0%	1.1%	7.64	4.01	—
2021	24	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	35	0	40	192	58	41	3	0%	1.2	23.3%	24.6%	-1.3%	2.1%	5.13	5.41	—
2021	24	A+ RAW	Brooklyn Cyclones	35	0	40	192	58	41	3	0%	1.2	30.2%	21.4%	8.9%	1.6%	5.13	4.24	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	45	215	58	39	4	0%	1.0	23.1%	19.2%	3.9%	2.0%	4.84	4.67	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	45	215	58	39	4	0%	1.0	27.0%	18.1%	8.8%	1.9%	4.84	4.29	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	37	173	61	28	3	0%	1.2	29.3%	15.2%	14.1%	1.0%	6.08	3.08	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	37	173	61	28	3	0%	1.2	35.3%	16.2%	19.1%	1.7%	6.08	3.13	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	0	71	322	110	45	4	0%	1.1	31.8%	13.2%	18.6%	1.4%	4.44	2.84	+1.5
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	0	71	322	110	45	4	0%	1.1	31.8%	13.2%	18.6%	1.4%	4.44	2.84	+1.5
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	65	0	71	322	110	45	4	0%	1.1	34.2%	14.0%	20.2%	1.2%	4.44	2.64	+1.6
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	0	23	118	34	23	4	0%	0.9	25.7%	17.6%	8.1%	2.1%	8.87	4.33	+0.1
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	0	23	118	34	23	4	0%	0.9	25.7%	17.6%	8.1%	2.1%	8.87	4.33	+0.1
2025	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	0	23	118	34	23	4	0%	0.9	28.8%	19.5%	9.3%	3.4%	8.87	5.37	-0.2
2026	29	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	50	1	55	234	74	42	7	2%	1.1	27.2%	16.2%	11.0%	3.3%	4.42	4.66	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	50	1	55	234	74	42	7	2%	1.1	27.2%	16.2%	11.0%	3.3%	4.42	4.66	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	50	1	55	234	74	42	7	2%	1.1	31.6%	17.9%	13.7%	3.0%	4.42	4.35	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			42	0	39	179	61	25	4	0%	0.9	34.1%	14.0%	20.1%	2.2%	4.81	3.23	+0.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	TEX	59	0	62	262	90	38	7	0%	1.1	34.4%	14.6%	19.8%	2.8%	3.72	3.94	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	TEX	55	0	58	244	80	35	7	0%	1.1	32.6%	14.4%	18.2%	3.0%	4.02	4.21	+0.2
2029	32	MLB MLE	TEX	51	0	54	226	70	33	7	0%	1.1	31.1%	14.4%	16.7%	3.3%	4.29	4.47	+0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	TEX	33	0	35	148	48	21	4	0%	1.1	32.6%	14.4%	18.2%	3.0%	4.02	4.21	+0.1
2029	32	MLB CTX	TEX	36	0	38	160	50	23	5	0%	1.1	31.1%	14.4%	16.7%	3.3%	4.29	4.47	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		112	0	113	489	160	70	14	0%	1.0	32.6%	14.3%	18.4%	2.8%	4.39	3.69	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		199	0	200	867	284	124	25	0%	1.0	32.6%	14.3%	18.4%	2.8%	4.39	3.69	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		268	13	328	1524	378	253	27	5%	1.2	24.8%	16.6%	8.2%	1.8%	5.43	4.10	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		163	8	200	929	230	154	17	5%	1.2	24.8%	16.6%	8.2%	1.8%	5.43	4.10	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michel Otañez (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.94	34.4%	14.6%	2.8%	—	4.33	31.9%	17.4%	112	+0.39	—	—	—
Ray Black R 2019 · 4.89 FIP	29	SU	4.89	30.8%	13.2%	5.0%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	150	69
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	32	SU	3.93	29.4%	9.8%	3.8%	.212	2.88	24.9%	19.3%	161	-1.05	2.76	223	69
Spencer Patton R 2016 · 2.79 FIP	28	SU	2.79	30.3%	12.2%	1.3%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	239	68
Parker Markel R 2021 · 4.23 FIP	30	SU	4.23	31.3%	18.5%	2.6%	.274	4.47	25.5%	10.0%	40	+0.24	3.18	266	67
Jake Cousins R 2024 · 3.42 FIP	30	SU	3.42	34.2%	12.3%	3.0%	.192	—	—	—	—	—	1.11	160	67
Huascar Brazobán R 2022 · 3.77 FIP	32	SU	3.77	28.5%	11.4%	3.0%	.275	3.49	23.3%	12.9%	187	-0.28	3.08	370	66
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	66
Ryne Stanek R 2021 · 3.73 FIP	30	SU	3.73	28.6%	11.7%	2.8%	.230	3.70	26.5%	15.7%	161	-0.03	2.96	771	65
Jay Jackson R 2019 · 2.80 FIP	31	SU	2.80	32.4%	9.1%	2.3%	.272	3.59	29.4%	19.9%	41	+0.79	2.36	261	65
Chad Fox R 2001 · 3.17 FIP	30	SU	3.17	27.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.221	3.70	23.2%	9.6%	43	+0.53	2.82	194	64
Aquilino López R 2005 · 3.10 FIP	30	SU	3.10	30.6%	8.3%	2.8%	.333	3.89	16.2%	10.5%	96	+0.79	3.10	207	64
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	335	64
Jeff Brigham R 2022 · 4.15 FIP	30	SU	4.15	31.2%	11.3%	4.1%	.317	5.20	27.9%	16.5%	101	+1.05	3.48	620	64
Robert Suarez R 2022 · 2.92 FIP	31	SU	2.92	31.9%	11.0%	2.0%	.238	3.15	24.9%	19.3%	162	+0.23	1.95	291	64
Jim Henderson R 2013 · 3.36 FIP	30	SU	3.36	30.4%	8.9%	3.1%	.254	4.77	23.5%	13.8%	76	+1.41	1.86	167	63
Jumbo Diaz R 2014 · 2.87 FIP	30	SU	2.87	26.1%	7.0%	2.0%	.283	3.64	23.0%	15.0%	186	+0.77	2.80	319	63
C.C. Lee R 2017 · 3.14 FIP	30	SU	3.14	28.4%	9.6%	2.2%	.359	3.03	34.7%	25.6%	25	-0.11	2.59	149	63
Simon Castro R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	29	SU	3.99	28.3%	10.3%	3.6%	.256	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	185	63
John Brebbia R 2019 · 2.89 FIP	29	SU	2.89	28.6%	8.2%	2.1%	.285	3.34	22.8%	17.4%	102	+0.45	2.89	576	62
Jason Bulger R 2009 · 3.78 FIP	30	SU	3.78	26.0%	11.1%	2.7%	.247	4.36	22.5%	9.0%	24	+0.58	3.78	106	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	53	33.0%	14.4%	1.10	4.15
Kyle Barraclough ('23)	1.4	56	28.2%	13.9%	0.99	3.86
Rex Brothers ('21)	1.6	54	27.6%	13.5%	0.98	4.08
Matt Mantei ('05)	1.6	54	28.0%	14.1%	0.84	4.07
Rod Scurry ('80-'88, 5 WAR*)	2.3	58	29.6%*	13.6%*	0.91*	3.67*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Ryne Duren ('54-'65, 4 WAR*)	2.9	65	34.5%*	14.6%*	0.75*	4.32*