Tim Elko — OGILVIE

Tim Elko1B Charlotte Knights

Age 27 R/R 6'3" / 250 lbs AAA HR +4% Svc 1.000 · Ctrl thru 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 250 proj PA

wRC+†101

AVG/OBP/SLG.242 / .292 / .425

PA250

HR11

K%35

BB%6

ISO184

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025

CONTACT50

Whiff%

1315.1%

xwOBA

100.243

POWER60

Barrel%

6810.8

Avg EV

7590.8

Bat Spd

7774.2

EYE40

Chase%

2536.7%

SPEED45

Sprint

5827.8

Platoon Splits2025 · 72 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

—

wRC+

-1

▶▶R

wOBA

184

250

▶▶R

ISO

158

208

▶▶R

BABIP

200

143

◀◀L

65.0%

32.7%

▶▶R

BB%

5.0%

7.7%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Arb-1	$0.7M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2029	Arb-2	$0.7M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	23	A	2 teams	—	99	97	12	2	0	2	2	60	0	0	0	124	141	206	348	82	286	61	2	155	-23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A	2 teams	—	99	96	23	4	0	5	3	41	0	0	0	240	263	438	700	198	360	41	3	306	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	A	3 teams	—	554	516	117	17	3	26	27	238	5	0	1	227	272	422	694	196	353	43	5	294	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	A	3 teams	—	554	505	149	25	4	28	38	165	5	0	1	295	350	527	877	232	381	30	7	380	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AA	3 teams	—	639	604	149	21	2	17	28	243	6	3	1	247	287	373	659	126	383	38	4	284	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AA	3 teams	—	639	585	168	26	2	22	46	194	6	3	1	287	345	451	796	164	395	30	7	353	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA	2 teams	—	486	450	96	17	0	16	29	179	5	3	0	213	269	358	626	144	311	37	6	276	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA	2 teams	—	486	440	118	20	0	30	39	153	5	3	0	268	335	518	853	250	340	31	8	371	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	MLB	CWS	—	250	232	57	9	1	11	14	89	2	2	0	246	294	435	730	190	341	36	6	317	101	+0	+0	-1	-4	+7	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	CWS	31%	654	603	146	24	1	27	40	224	6	5	1	242	296	420	715	177	335	34	6	317	100	+0	+1	-3	-12	+19	0.5
2028	29	MLB	CWS	40%	640	589	142	23	1	26	40	215	6	4	1	241	296	416	712	175	330	34	6	315	99	-1	+0	-3	-11	+18	0.3
2029	30	MLB	CWS	45%	628	577	138	22	1	25	40	209	6	4	1	239	295	411	706	172	326	33	6	312	97	-2	+0	-4	-11	+18	0.1
2030	31	MLB	CWS	47%	615	565	134	22	1	24	40	205	5	3	1	237	293	407	701	170	322	33	7	308	94	-4	+0	-5	-11	+17	-0.2
2027	28	MLB	CWS	31%	203	187	45	7	0	9	12	70	2	1	0	241	294	422	716	182	336	34	6	312	97	-1	+0	-1	-4	+6	0.1
2028	29	MLB	CWS	40%	253	233	56	9	1	10	16	85	2	2	0	240	295	416	711	176	331	34	6	310	96	-1	+0	-1	-5	+7	0.1
2029	30	MLB	CWS	45%	280	258	62	10	1	11	18	93	2	2	0	240	295	415	710	174	327	33	6	308	94	-2	+0	-2	-5	+8	-0.0
2030	31	MLB	CWS	47%	292	268	63	10	1	11	19	97	3	2	0	235	293	403	696	168	323	33	7	303	90	-3	+0	-2	-5	+8	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1100	1013	235	37	3	45	70	375	9	8	0	232	288	408	695	176	318	34	6	303	90	-12	+2	-8	-27	+31	-1.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	599	140	22	2	27	41	222	5	5	0	234	288	412	700	179	321	34	6	303	90	-7	+1	-5	-16	+18	-0.9
Career	—			—	4565	4233	991	157	10	174	260	1662	41	24	6	234	285	399	684	165	338	36	6	300	87	-65	+2	-17	-82	+129	-3.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	603	141	22	1	25	37	237	6	3	1	234	285	398	683	164	337	36	6	300	87	-9	+0	-2	-12	+18	-0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	23	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	72	70	19	4	0	2	2	28	0	0	0	271	292	414	706	143	425	39	3	312	97	-0	+0	—	—	+2	0.2
2022	23	ROK	ACL White Sox	—	27	26	4	0	0	3	1	13	0	0	0	154	185	500	685	346	100	48	4	291	81	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2023	24	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	137	130	35	3	0	6	3	49	2	0	0	269	296	431	727	162	377	36	2	317	101	+0	+0	—	—	+4	0.4
2023	24	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	131	116	37	8	3	5	11	31	1	0	0	319	383	569	952	250	386	24	8	404	167	+10	+0	—	—	+4	1.4
2023	24	A	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	—	286	259	77	14	1	17	24	85	2	0	1	297	361	556	917	259	380	30	8	398	163	+20	-0	—	—	+8	2.9
2024	25	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	219	197	57	7	1	9	21	64	1	1	1	289	361	472	833	183	387	29	10	369	141	+10	-0	—	—	+6	1.6
2024	25	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	371	343	99	16	1	9	21	109	5	2	0	289	338	420	758	131	398	29	6	338	117	+7	+0	—	—	+11	1.8
2024	25	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	49	45	12	3	0	4	4	21	0	0	0	267	327	600	927	333	400	43	8	398	163	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
2025	26	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	72	67	9	1	0	4	5	30	0	1	0	134	194	328	523	194	152	42	7	232	36	-5	+0	-2	-9	+2	-1.4
2025	26	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	414	373	109	19	0	26	34	123	5	2	0	292	359	552	912	260	367	30	8	396	161	+29	+0	—	—	+12	4.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	72	67	9	1	0	4	5	30	0	1	0	134	194	328	523	194	152	42	7	232	36	-5	+0	-2	-9	+2	-1.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#2Craig Monroelast yr '09 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,898 PA	8	2,898	114	19	253	302	443	-28	-32	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	26	4	253	302	443	-6.5	-7.4	0.9	pk7: 5
#3Nomar Mazaralast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,690 PA	7	2,690	85	7	256	315	414	-29	-21	3.7	3.7
	/162	664	21	2	256	315	414	-7.1	-5.3	0.9	pk7: 4
#4Ike Davislast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,377 PA	6	2,377	81	7	239	332	416	-42	-36	1.7	1.7
#4Ike Davislast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,377 PA	/162	664	23	2	239	332	416	-11.9	-10.1	0.5	pk7: 2
#5Dayan Viciedolast yr '14 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,798 PA	5	1,798	66	2	254	298	424	-18	-29	0.3	0.3
	/162	664	24	1	254	298	424	-6.6	-10.7	0.1	pk7: 0
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	1,125	46	8	234	287	411	-20	-8	0.2	0.2
	/162	664	27	4	234	287	411	-11.9	-4.7	0.1	pk7: 0
#6Hunter Dozierlast yr '23 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,294 PA	6	2,294	73	19	238	305	421	-23	-45	0.0	0.0
	/162	664	21	5	238	305	421	-6.5	-13.2	0.0	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tim Elko (OGILVIE)	27	50	60	45	40	242/292/425	183	341	11	2	35%	6%	101	+0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jason Dubois 2006 · MLB	27	49→45	57→60	42→40	39	249/301/449	200	335	26	5	33%	6%	110	+2.4	231/282/404	173	302	22	4	30%	6%	90	+1.0	225/291/439	215	278	31	3	31%	6%	101	+1.1
✕Ernesto Mejia 2013 · AAA	27	46→49	58→65	45	36	241/287/444	203	323	27	7	34%	5%	103	+1.9	227/279/425	198	305	26	8	34%	6%	95	+1.4	197/254/402	205	259	27	7	35%	6%	77	+0.1
✕J.J. Jurries 2006 · AAA	27	46→45	56→60	46→40	41	239/293/430	191	309	24	5	31%	6%	102	+1.8	209/266/342	133	302	15	6	34%	6%	67	-0.5	167/230/259	92	253	11	3	37%	6%	28	-1.9
✕Andrew Brown 2012 · MLB	27	47	55	42→40	43	242/304/418	176	316	24	5	31%	7%	103	+1.9	224/286/399	175	299	22	5	31%	7%	91	+1.1	215/279/392	178	278	22	3	30%	7%	85	+0.6
✕Tyler Austin 2019 · MLB	27	43→53	60→65	43→45	40	232/287/445	214	305	28	4	34%	7%	103	+1.9	230/300/438	208	318	28	9	35%	9%	107	+2.2	208/304/428	219	289	31	11	37%	12%	102	+0.7
✕Tyler Moore 2014 · MLB	27	46→48	60→65	51→40	41	248/297/462	214	305	28	5	29%	6%	112	+2.6	222/283/375	153	283	18	3	27%	7%	82	+0.5	208/253/359	151	261	17	0	27%	5%	62	-0.3
●Matt Davidson 2019 · MLB	28	43→44	57→60	42→30	43	226/297/419	193	305	26	2	34%	8%	101	+1.8	223/288/427	204	294	28	3	33%	7%	99	+1.7	218/288/431	213	280	32	0	34%	7%	98	+1.1
✕Edwin Rios 2021 · MLB	27	41→47	59→60	43→30	36	219/277/427	208	315	28	4	39%	6%	95	+1.4	215/283/405	190	302	25	4	36%	7%	92	+1.2	218/288/401	183	314	23	1	36%	7%	89	+0.5
✕Bobby Dalbec 2022 · MLB	27	42	62→60	48→50	41	231/298/462	231	301	31	5	34%	7%	112	+2.6	217/287/410	193	310	27	11	37%	8%	95	+1.4	199/274/377	177	295	25	13	40%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Andrew Young 2022 · MLB	28	43→47	57→60	48→40	38	220/302/422	202	319	24	5	37%	6%	105	+2.1	208/285/370	162	322	20	7	39%	8%	83	+0.6	171/257/312	142	262	19	4	40%	8%	53	-0.9
✕Yasmany Tomás 2018 · MLB	27	49→54	57→60	41→40	43	257/301/455	198	307	25	4	25%	6%	111	+2.5	213/246/376	163	288	21	4	33%	4%	67	-0.5	192/217/342	150	263	20	3	35%	3%	42	-1.5
✕Franmil Reyes 2023 · MLB	28	46→51	56→65	43→45	43	240/300/428	188	315	25	4	32%	8%	104	+2.0	221/286/371	150	302	19	6	32%	8%	83	+0.6	176/250/290	114	241	17	0	34%	9%	46	-0.8
✕Joe Koshansky 2009 · MLB	27	45→46	55→60	44→40	41	230/289/416	186	316	23	3	34%	7%	96	+1.5	195/264/359	164	292	21	6	39%	8%	72	-0.2	170/246/320	151	253	21	5	40%	8%	54	-1.0
✕Hunter Owen 2021 · AAA	27	42→38	57→55	43→40	33	221/282/415	195	316	26	5	38%	5%	95	+1.4	200/256/341	141	317	18	6	41%	5%	63	-0.9	166/214/300	134	262	21	3	44%	4%	33	-1.8
●Victor Diaz 2009 · MLB	27	44→51	52→60	46→50	36	223/274/384	161	321	20	8	36%	6%	81	+0.4	230/293/402	172	327	22	10	35%	7%	94	+1.3	231/306/431	200	325	29	9	36%	8%	106	+1.2
✕Andrew Lambo 2016 · MLB	27	45→49	59→65	47→45	39	240/285/451	211	299	27	7	30%	6%	104	+2.0	212/261/334	122	278	12	7	27%	6%	63	-0.9	211/265/332	122	261	11	2	23%	6%	60	-0.4
✕Daniel Palka 2019 · MLB	27	42→44	56→55	43→50	39	225/274/408	183	298	25	5	33%	6%	88	+0.9	210/274/379	169	272	22	5	30%	8%	80	+0.4	217/279/385	168	275	23	3	29%	8%	80	+0.3
●Chris Carter 2014 · MLB	27	43→53	59→65	49→45	49	229/316/438	209	305	27	4	33%	11%	113	+2.6	219/311/453	234	277	32	4	32%	11%	115	+2.8	213/311/464	252	256	36	3	32%	11%	114	+2.5
★Chris Davis 2013 · MLB	27	48→53	58→70	42→40	40	252/303/447	195	327	27	4	31%	6%	111	+2.5	246/331/500	254	306	35	4	31%	10%	136	+4.2	238/337/508	269	291	38	3	31%	12%	131	+4.0
✕David Villar 2023 · MLB	26	43	61→60	43→40	45	231/318/454	223	301	30	4	33%	9%	119	+3.1	219/299/382	163	289	21	5	30%	9%	92	+1.2	208/289/344	136	275	17	4	29%	9%	75	+0.0