Tim Elko
1B Charlotte Knights| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs | 639 | .287/.345/.451 | 22 | 3 | 83 | — | .246/.289/.360 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAACWS | 414 | .292/.359/.552 | 26 | 2 | 80 | — | .230/.284/.373 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLBCWS | 72 | .134/.194/.328 | 4 | 1 | 42 | -1.4 | |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA/A+CWS | 150 | .224/.302/.403 | 6 | 1 | 36 | — | .173/.228/.296 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 28 | MLBCWS | 12 | .219/.271/.394 | 1 | 0 | 83 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 29 | MLBCWS | 49 | .217/.269/.387 | 2 | 0 | 81 | -0.1 |
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 60
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 23 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 72 | 70 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 271 | 292 | 414 | 706 | 143 | 425 | 39 | 3 | 312 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | ROK | ACL White Sox | — | 27 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 185 | 500 | 685 | 346 | 100 | 48 | 4 | 291 | -35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 137 | 130 | 35 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 49 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 269 | 296 | 431 | 727 | 162 | 377 | 36 | 2 | 317 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 131 | 116 | 37 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 319 | 383 | 569 | 952 | 250 | 386 | 24 | 8 | 404 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 286 | 259 | 77 | 14 | 1 | 17 | 24 | 85 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 297 | 361 | 556 | 917 | 259 | 380 | 30 | 8 | 398 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 219 | 197 | 57 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 64 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 289 | 361 | 472 | 833 | 183 | 387 | 29 | 10 | 369 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 371 | 343 | 99 | 16 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 109 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 289 | 338 | 420 | 758 | 131 | 398 | 29 | 6 | 338 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 49 | 45 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 327 | 600 | 927 | 333 | 400 | 43 | 8 | 398 | 155 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | — | 72 | 67 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 134 | 194 | 328 | 523 | 194 | 152 | 42 | 7 | 232 | 42 | -5 | +0 | -2 | -9 | +2 | -1.4 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 414 | 373 | 109 | 19 | 0 | 26 | 34 | 123 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 292 | 359 | 552 | 912 | 260 | 367 | 30 | 8 | 396 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 128 | 114 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 51 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 237 | 315 | 430 | 745 | 193 | 362 | 40 | 10 | 328 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 22 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 227 | 250 | 477 | 100 | 375 | 55 | 9 | 221 | -39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 72 | 67 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 134 | 194 | 328 | 523 | 194 | 152 | 42 | 7 | 232 | 43 | -5 | +0 | -2 | -9 | +2 | -1.4 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 72 | 71 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 169 | 181 | 254 | 434 | 85 | 357 | 54 | 1 | 186 | 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | ROK MLE | ACL White Sox | — | 27 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 74 | 154 | 228 | 115 | 71 | 70 | 4 | 116 | -35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 137 | 131 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 64 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 230 | 321 | 550 | 115 | 332 | 47 | 1 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 131 | 120 | 29 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 43 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 242 | 289 | 425 | 714 | 183 | 312 | 33 | 5 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A MLE | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | — | 286 | 266 | 60 | 10 | 1 | 13 | 17 | 115 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 226 | 277 | 417 | 694 | 192 | 334 | 40 | 6 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 219 | 204 | 49 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 78 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 240 | 292 | 368 | 660 | 127 | 359 | 36 | 6 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 371 | 352 | 88 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 136 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 250 | 286 | 355 | 642 | 105 | 380 | 37 | 4 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | Chicago White Sox | — | 72 | 67 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 134 | 194 | 328 | 523 | 194 | 152 | 42 | 7 | 230 | 42 | -5 | +0 | -2 | -9 | +2 | -1.4 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 414 | 383 | 88 | 16 | 0 | 13 | 24 | 148 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 230 | 284 | 373 | 657 | 144 | 334 | 36 | 6 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 128 | 118 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 61 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 186 | 244 | 322 | 566 | 136 | 322 | 48 | 7 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 22 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 95 | 136 | 143 | 279 | 48 | 288 | 73 | 5 | 111 | -39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 99 | 97 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 144 | 162 | 237 | 399 | 93 | 324 | 59 | 2 | 167 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 99 | 96 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 240 | 263 | 438 | 700 | 198 | 360 | 41 | 3 | 306 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 554 | 517 | 116 | 18 | 3 | 22 | 26 | 222 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 224 | 268 | 398 | 667 | 174 | 337 | 40 | 5 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 554 | 505 | 149 | 25 | 4 | 28 | 38 | 165 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 295 | 350 | 527 | 877 | 232 | 381 | 30 | 7 | 380 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 639 | 603 | 149 | 22 | 2 | 14 | 29 | 231 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 247 | 288 | 360 | 648 | 113 | 376 | 36 | 5 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 639 | 585 | 168 | 26 | 2 | 22 | 46 | 194 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 287 | 345 | 451 | 796 | 164 | 395 | 30 | 7 | 353 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 486 | 450 | 97 | 17 | 0 | 17 | 29 | 178 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 216 | 271 | 367 | 637 | 151 | 311 | 37 | 6 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 486 | 440 | 118 | 20 | 0 | 30 | 39 | 153 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 268 | 335 | 518 | 853 | 250 | 340 | 31 | 8 | 371 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 150 | 139 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 77 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 165 | 221 | 281 | 502 | 115 | 322 | 51 | 7 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 150 | 134 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 63 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 224 | 302 | 403 | 705 | 179 | 364 | 42 | 10 | 313 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 99 | 97 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 144 | 162 | 237 | 399 | 93 | 279 | 59 | 2 | 167 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 554 | 518 | 116 | 18 | 3 | 22 | 26 | 222 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 224 | 268 | 398 | 666 | 174 | 328 | 40 | 5 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 639 | 599 | 149 | 22 | 2 | 14 | 29 | 231 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 249 | 288 | 362 | 651 | 114 | 372 | 36 | 5 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 486 | 449 | 97 | 17 | 0 | 17 | 29 | 178 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 216 | 271 | 367 | 638 | 151 | 307 | 37 | 6 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 150 | 139 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 77 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 165 | 221 | 281 | 502 | 115 | 317 | 51 | 7 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 639 | 599 | 149 | 22 | 2 | 14 | 29 | 231 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 249 | 288 | 362 | 651 | 114 | 372 | 36 | 5 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 486 | 449 | 97 | 17 | 0 | 17 | 29 | 178 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 216 | 271 | 367 | 638 | 151 | 307 | 37 | 6 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 150 | 139 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 77 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 165 | 221 | 281 | 502 | 115 | 317 | 51 | 7 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | CWS | 10% | 200 | 185 | 41 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 83 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 218 | 270 | 390 | 660 | 172 | 338 | 42 | 6 | 291 | 83 | -4 | +0 | -0 | -4 | +4 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | CWS | 10% | 12 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 219 | 271 | 394 | 665 | 175 | 339 | 42 | 8 | 293 | 83 | -0 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | CWS | 27% | 179 | 165 | 35 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 73 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 216 | 268 | 383 | 651 | 167 | 330 | 41 | 6 | 287 | 81 | -4 | +0 | -2 | -3 | +4 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | CWS | 27% | 49 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 269 | 387 | 656 | 170 | 331 | 41 | 6 | 289 | 81 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 121 | 113 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 159 | 215 | 336 | 551 | 177 | 211 | 41 | 7 | 255 | 71 | -6 | +0 | -3 | -10 | +3 | -1.6 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 607 | 97 | 11 | 0 | 32 | 43 | 269 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 160 | 215 | 336 | 551 | 176 | 212 | 41 | 7 | 255 | 71 | -32 | +1 | -14 | -51 | +14 | -8.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2231 | 2086 | 459 | 71 | 6 | 71 | 114 | 891 | 18 | 9 | 2 | 220 | 266 | 362 | 628 | 142 | 342 | 40 | 5 | 273 | 71 | -12 | +1 | -4 | -14 | +8 | -2.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 608 | 135 | 21 | 2 | 21 | 33 | 260 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 222 | 267 | 367 | 634 | 145 | 345 | 40 | 5 | 273 | 71 | -20 | +1 | -7 | -24 | +14 | -3.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAACharlotte Knights · 128 PAwOBA .322 → .241 (−81)K% 39.8% → 47.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 39.84% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 47.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.16% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 6.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.005 | ×0.992 | 26.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.005 | ×0.992 | 2.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.59% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.005 | ×0.992 | 1.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 6.61% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .322 → .241; ISO .193 → .130; BABIP .362 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 22 PAwOBA .216 → .111 (−105)K% 54.5% → 71.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 54.55% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 71.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.948 | 5.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.948 | 10.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.948 | 18.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 22.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .216 → .111; ISO .100 → .048; BABIP .375 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAACharlotte Knights · 414 PAwOBA .386 → .287 (−99)K% 29.7% → 35.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.71% | ÷0.996 | ×1.200 | — | — | 35.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.21% | ÷0.984 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 5.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.21% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.60% | ÷1.002 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 25.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.60% | ÷0.980 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 6.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.961 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.40% | ÷1.320 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 5.53% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 100, 2B 96, 3B 92, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .386 → .287; ISO .260 → .149; BABIP .367 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AABirmingham Barons · 371 PAwOBA .328 → .278 (−50)K% 29.4% → 36.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.38% | ÷0.980 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.39% | ÷1.081 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 3.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.35% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 1.12% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.20% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | ×1.041 | ×0.988 | 30.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.84% | ÷0.990 | ×0.910 | ×1.041 | ×0.988 | 6.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.43% | ÷1.044 | ×0.880 | ×1.041 | ×0.988 | 0.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.85% | ÷0.935 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 3.25% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 96, 2B 98, 3B 109, K 96, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.041.
Result: wOBA .328 → .278; ISO .131 → .108; BABIP .398 → .380. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAACharlotte Knights · 219 PAwOBA .360 → .290 (−70)K% 29.2% → 35.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.22% | ÷0.991 | ×1.200 | — | — | 35.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.59% | ÷1.025 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 6.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.46% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.08% | ÷1.033 | ×0.930 | ×1.045 | ×1.018 | 28.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.994 | ×0.830 | ×1.045 | ×1.018 | 4.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.75% | ÷1.049 | ×0.970 | ×1.045 | ×1.018 | 0.74% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.77% | ÷1.016 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 4.75% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 107, 2B 99, 3B 110, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.045.
Result: wOBA .360 → .290; ISO .183 → .131; BABIP .387 → .359. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 286 PAwOBA .388 → .298 (−90)K% 29.7% → 40.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.72% | ÷1.004 | ×1.360 | — | — | 40.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.39% | ÷0.951 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.970 | 5.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.70% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.970 | 0.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.86% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×1.033 | ×0.970 | 23.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.05% | ÷1.050 | ×0.830 | ×1.033 | ×0.970 | 6.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.57% | ÷0.988 | ×0.910 | ×1.033 | ×0.970 | 0.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.77% | ÷0.861 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.970 | 8.81% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 100, 2B 110, 3B 98, K 101, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.
Result: wOBA .388 → .298; ISO .259 → .199; BABIP .380 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AABirmingham Barons · 137 PAwOBA .312 → .233 (−80)K% 35.8% → 46.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.77% | ÷0.938 | ×1.220 | — | — | 46.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.19% | ÷0.995 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 1.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.46% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 1.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.10% | ÷1.069 | ×0.920 | ×1.038 | ×0.998 | 28.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.70% | ÷0.961 | ×0.910 | ×1.038 | ×0.998 | 3.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.967 | ×0.880 | ×1.038 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.41% | ÷1.013 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 5.84% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 114, 2B 92, 3B 93, K 88, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.
Result: wOBA .312 → .233; ISO .162 → .113; BABIP .377 → .332. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 131 PAwOBA .402 → .303 (−99)K% 23.7% → 32.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.66% | ÷0.948 | ×1.310 | — | — | 32.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.40% | ÷0.943 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 5.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.76% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 0.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.71% | ÷1.011 | ×0.870 | ×1.003 | ×0.978 | 20.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.41% | ÷1.030 | ×0.780 | ×1.003 | ×0.978 | 6.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.53% | ÷1.008 | ×0.850 | ×1.003 | ×0.978 | 2.92% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.017 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 4.98% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 102, 2B 106, 3B 102, K 90, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .402 → .303; ISO .250 → .193; BABIP .386 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .