Trenton Denholm

P Columbus Clippers

Age 27 RHP 5'11" / 180 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.1 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	26	26	148	3.09	3.61	21.1%	6.0%	—	K 16.4% · BB 6.8% · FIP 4.27
2025	25	MIX2 levels	27	19	130	3.88	3.40	20.5%	4.9%	—	K 16.6% · BB 5.4% · FIP 4.25
2026	26	AAACLE	29	18	129	4.59	3.73	22.6%	5.9%	—	K 19.4% · BB 5.3% · FIP 4.08
2027PROJ	27	MLBCLE	14	14	90	4.43	4.43	17.5%	4.9%	0.5
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBCLE	6	6	38	4.47	4.50	17.8%	5.3%	0.2
2029PROJ59% MLB	29	MLBCLE	8	8	51	4.55	4.61	17.9%	5.7%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.8M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control65Command50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsRyan Watson (age 25) · Nick Payero (age 24) · Patrick Johnson (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.43

FIP4.43

K%17.5%

BB%4.9%

K-BB%12.6%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL6565

CMD5050

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	23	23	98	432	107	40	8	100%	4.2	18.3%	10.9%	7.4%	2.4%	4.79	4.24	—
2022	22	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	23	23	98	432	107	40	8	100%	4.2	24.8%	9.3%	15.5%	1.9%	4.79	3.20	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	23	6	77	316	67	18	4	26%	3.3	16.3%	6.6%	9.8%	1.5%	3.16	3.37	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	23	6	77	316	67	18	4	26%	3.3	21.2%	5.7%	15.5%	1.3%	3.16	2.74	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	148	603	127	36	17	100%	5.7	16.4%	6.8%	9.7%	3.1%	3.09	4.27	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	148	603	127	36	17	100%	5.7	16.4%	6.8%	9.7%	3.1%	3.09	4.27	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	148	603	127	36	17	100%	5.7	21.1%	6.0%	15.1%	2.8%	3.09	3.61	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	19	130	547	112	27	14	70%	4.8	16.6%	5.4%	11.2%	3.4%	3.88	4.25	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	19	130	547	112	27	14	70%	4.8	16.6%	5.4%	11.2%	3.4%	3.88	4.25	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	19	130	547	112	27	14	70%	4.8	20.5%	4.9%	15.5%	2.6%	3.88	3.40	—
2026	26	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	29	18	129	558	126	33	18	62%	4.5	19.4%	5.3%	14.1%	3.5%	4.59	4.08	—
2026	26	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	29	18	129	558	126	33	18	62%	4.5	19.4%	5.3%	14.1%	3.5%	4.59	4.08	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	29	18	129	558	126	33	18	62%	4.5	22.6%	5.9%	16.7%	3.2%	4.59	3.73	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CLE	14	14	90	380	66	19	13	100%	6.4	17.5%	4.9%	12.6%	3.3%	4.43	4.43	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CLE	14	14	90	380	68	20	13	100%	6.4	17.8%	5.3%	12.5%	3.4%	4.47	4.50	+0.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	CLE	13	13	86	363	65	21	13	100%	6.6	17.9%	5.7%	12.2%	3.5%	4.55	4.61	+0.3
2030	30	MLB MLE	CLE	13	13	81	341	61	21	13	100%	6.2	17.8%	6.1%	11.6%	3.7%	4.67	4.77	+0.1
2031	31	MLB MLE	CLE	12	12	75	318	62	18	12	100%	6.3	19.5%	5.7%	13.7%	3.9%	4.68	4.69	+0.2
2032	32	MLB MLE	CLE	11	11	70	294	56	18	12	100%	6.3	19.0%	6.1%	12.9%	4.1%	4.82	4.91	-0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	CLE	6	6	38	160	29	9	5	100%	6.3	17.8%	5.3%	12.5%	3.4%	4.47	4.50	+0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	CLE	8	8	51	215	39	12	7	100%	6.4	17.9%	5.7%	12.2%	3.5%	4.55	4.61	+0.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	CLE	9	9	57	241	43	15	9	100%	6.3	17.8%	6.1%	11.6%	3.7%	4.66	4.76	+0.1
2031	31	MLB CTX	CLE	9	9	59	249	48	14	10	100%	6.6	19.5%	5.7%	13.7%	3.9%	4.67	4.68	+0.1
2032	32	MLB CTX	CLE	9	9	58	245	47	15	10	100%	6.4	19.0%	6.1%	12.9%	4.1%	4.81	4.90	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		41	41	263	1110	205	65	41	100%	6.4	18.4%	5.8%	12.6%	3.7%	4.65	4.33	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		31	31	200	844	156	49	31	100%	6.4	18.4%	5.8%	12.6%	3.7%	4.65	4.33	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		128	92	582	2456	429	168	72	72%	4.5	17.5%	6.8%	10.6%	2.9%	3.89	4.10	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	32	200	844	147	58	25	72%	4.5	17.5%	6.8%	10.6%	2.9%	3.89	4.10	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trenton Denholm (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	17.5%	4.9%	3.3%	—	4.62	17.8%	12.1%	257	+0.19	—	—	—
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	84
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	82
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	82
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	81
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	81
Braydon Tucker R 2024 · 3.25 FIP	25	SP-	3.25	18.3%	7.1%	1.5%	.291	4.70	15.3%	6.3%	208	+1.45	3.25	314	80
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	79
Mitch Myers R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP-	4.29	16.1%	5.8%	3.3%	.338	5.64	17.3%	8.5%	92	+1.35	3.56	432	79
Cole De Vries R 2012 · 4.73 FIP	27	SP	4.73	15.5%	4.8%	4.2%	.254	7.58	15.8%	4.0%	15	+2.85	4.73	103	78
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	76
Parker Curry R 2019 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP-	4.79	17.8%	5.4%	4.6%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	256	76
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	76
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	75
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	75
Joe Gunkel R 2019 · 4.06 FIP	27	SP-	4.06	14.7%	4.3%	3.0%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	601	75
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	74
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	74
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	73
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	73
Todd Redmond R 2013 · 4.14 FIP	28	SP-	4.14	23.5%	6.5%	4.0%	.266	3.57	17.0%	10.1%	170	-0.57	3.21	247	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	82	18.2%	5.6%	1.40	4.59
Austin Pruitt ('24)	1.6	63	16.6%	5.6%	1.31	4.54
Jim Willoughby ('71-'78, 4 WAR*)	2.8	79	16.0%*	6.2%*	1.42*	4.13*
Matt Andriese ('24)	2.6	74	21.8%	6.7%	1.36	4.65
Wally Whitehurst ('89-'96, 4 WAR*)	2.4	98	19.0%*	6.3%*	1.11*	4.50*
Tom Gorman ('52-'59, 4 WAR*)	3.4	86	18.4%*	7.2%*	1.42*	4.05*
Vidal Nuño ('18)	1.9	75	19.6%	6.6%	1.55	4.06