Johan Oviedo
P
Boston Red Sox
Age 28
RHP
6'6" / 275 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2026
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION50 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.48
FIP4.58
xFIP5.40
SIERA4.01
K%25.1%
BB%11.0%
K-BB%14.1%
IP50
K†6060
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
FB Velo
p6495.5
Whiff%
p7929.9%
K%
p6424.7%
xwOBA vs
p460.316
CT (1%)
SI (19%)
CU (25%)
SL-1.1 (19%)
FB-2.6 (54%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | 7 | 7 | 22 | 88 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 22.4% | 8.5% | 0.0% | 1.66 | 2.29 | +0.6 |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | Johnson City Cardinals | 6 | 6 | 28 | 125 | 31 | 18 | 0 | 16.9% | 18.0% | 0.0% | 4.88 | 3.96 | +0.2 |
| 2018 | 20 | A | Peoria Chiefs | 25 | 23 | 122 | 542 | 118 | 79 | 6 | 16.1% | 17.2% | 1.5% | 4.22 | 4.74 | +0.9 |
| 2019 | 21 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 29 | 28 | 147 | 655 | 163 | 76 | 10 | 19.9% | 12.9% | 1.6% | 4.73 | 3.92 | +2.5 |
| 2020 | 22 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 5 | 5 | 25 | 112 | 16 | 10 | 3 | 14.3% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 5.47 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 23 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 26 | 24 | 117 | 533 | 110 | 64 | 15 | 19.3% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 5.48 | 4.74 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 36 | 22 | 117 | 501 | 118 | 49 | 19 | 22.0% | 10.0% | 4.0% | 3.99 | 4.71 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 32 | 32 | 178 | 781 | 158 | 82 | 19 | 20.2% | 10.5% | 2.5% | 4.31 | 4.07 | +2.8 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 17 | 17 | 66 | 274 | 78 | 30 | 9 | 27.1% | 11.9% | 4.6% | 3.39 | 4.82 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 1 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | 9.82 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | BOS | 28 | — | 28 | 118 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 25.1% | 11.0% | 3.3% | 4.48 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 32 | 136 | 32 | 14 | 6 | 24.0% | 10.3% | 4.4% | 5.10 | 4.05 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 46 | 21 | 7 | 24.5% | 11.2% | 3.5% | 4.64 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 42 | 20 | 7 | 23.8% | 11.5% | 3.7% | 4.82 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 38 | 20 | 6 | 23.1% | 11.8% | 3.9% | 5.04 | 5.18 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 34 | 19 | 6 | 22.3% | 12.2% | 4.2% | 5.28 | 5.43 | -0.4 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 33 | — | 33 | 141 | 30 | 18 | 6 | 21.4% | 12.7% | 4.4% | 5.54 | 5.71 | -0.5 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 26 | 17 | 6 | 20.5% | 13.2% | 4.7% | 5.83 | 6.02 | -0.5 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 27 | — | 27 | 115 | 23 | 16 | 6 | 19.6% | 13.8% | 5.1% | 6.14 | 6.35 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 184 | 164 | 824 | 3629 | 723 | 449 | 92 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.5% | 4.42 | 4.37 | +9.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 40 | 200 | 881 | 175 | 109 | 22 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.5% | 4.42 | 4.37 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Johan Oviedo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.58 | 25.1% | 11.0% | 3.3% | — | 4.95 | 23.8% | 12.3% | 126 | +0.37 | — | — | — |
| José Cisnero R 2025 · 4.40 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.40 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.7% | .367 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.38 | 2.28 | 279 | 73 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.87 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.45 | 2.42 | 125 | 72 |
| Peyton Gray R 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.31 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 125 | 70 |
| Neil Ramírez R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.68 | 27.1% | 12.5% | 4.2% | .389 | 4.81 | 29.1% | 19.7% | 116 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 220 | 69 |
| Zach McAllister R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.71 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .309 | 4.19 | 24.0% | 17.4% | 119 | +0.48 | 2.82 | 363 | 68 |
| David Hernandez R 2028 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 68 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.55 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.06 | 2.51 | 137 | 68 |
| Brooks Kriske R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.01 | 28.6% | 12.1% | 5.1% | .261 | 4.52 | 30.7% | 16.5% | 88 | -0.49 | 3.00 | 246 | 68 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 68 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.46 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .327 | 4.77 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 74 | +1.31 | 2.32 | 676 | 68 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.16 | 25.1% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .299 | 3.00 | 18.0% | 13.9% | 29 | -1.16 | 3.00 | 313 | 67 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 355 | 67 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2029 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 67 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 67 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.63 | 23.3% | 13.6% | 3.2% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 315 | 67 |
| Trevor May R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.83 | 26.1% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .291 | 3.46 | 31.9% | 23.6% | 150 | -0.37 | 3.04 | 432 | 67 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2024 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 25.2% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 111 | 67 |
| Cole McDonald R 2025 · 5.38 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.38 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 4.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 153 | 66 |
| Shane Greene R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.54 | 25.8% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .253 | 3.91 | 23.4% | 16.9% | 154 | +0.37 | 2.90 | 484 | 66 |
| Ronald Peña R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 66 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.