Johan Oviedo
P
Boston Red Sox
+0.1
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 28
RHP
6'6" / 275 lbs
MLB
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.48
FIP4.68
xFIP5.40
SIERA4.01
K%23.9%
BB%11.0%
K-BB%12.9%
IP50
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†6060
FB Velo
p6495.5
Whiff%
p7929.9%
K%
p6424.7%
xwOBA vs
p460.316
CT (1%)
SI (19%)
CU (25%)
SL-1.1 (19%)
FB-2.6 (54%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | 7 | 7 | 22 | 88 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 22.4% | 8.5% | 0.0% | 1.66 | 2.29 | +0.7 |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | Johnson City Cardinals | 6 | 6 | 28 | 125 | 31 | 18 | 0 | 16.9% | 18.0% | 0.0% | 4.88 | 3.96 | +0.3 |
| 2018 | 20 | A | Peoria Chiefs | 25 | 23 | 122 | 542 | 118 | 79 | 6 | 16.1% | 17.2% | 1.5% | 4.22 | 4.72 | +0.8 |
| 2019 | 21 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 29 | 28 | 147 | 655 | 163 | 76 | 10 | 19.9% | 12.9% | 1.6% | 4.73 | 3.93 | +2.3 |
| 2020 | 22 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 5 | 5 | 25 | 112 | 16 | 10 | 3 | 14.3% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 5.47 | 4.51 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 23 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 26 | 24 | 117 | 533 | 110 | 64 | 15 | 19.3% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 5.48 | 4.74 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 36 | 22 | 117 | 501 | 118 | 49 | 19 | 22.0% | 10.0% | 4.1% | 3.99 | 4.77 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 32 | 32 | 178 | 781 | 158 | 82 | 19 | 20.2% | 10.5% | 2.6% | 4.31 | 4.15 | +2.3 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 17 | 17 | 66 | 274 | 78 | 30 | 9 | 27.1% | 11.9% | 4.4% | 3.39 | 4.71 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 1 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | 9.82 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | STL | 10 | — | 10 | 44 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 25.0% | 11.0% | 3.3% | 4.48 | 4.58 | +0.0 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | STL | — | — | 14 | 62 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 22.6% | 9.4% | 5.6% | 5.87 | 3.39 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | STL | 43 | — | 43 | 180 | 44 | 20 | 6 | 24.6% | 11.1% | 3.4% | 4.58 | 4.65 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | STL | 38 | — | 38 | 162 | 39 | 18 | 6 | 24.0% | 11.2% | 3.4% | 4.68 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | STL | 34 | — | 34 | 146 | 34 | 16 | 5 | 23.4% | 11.3% | 3.5% | 4.78 | 4.84 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | STL | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 30 | 15 | 5 | 22.8% | 11.4% | 3.6% | 4.89 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | STL | 27 | — | 27 | 116 | 26 | 13 | 4 | 22.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | 5.01 | 5.09 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 184 | 164 | 824 | 3629 | 723 | 449 | 93 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.6% | 4.42 | 4.39 | +8.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 40 | 200 | 881 | 175 | 109 | 23 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.6% | 4.42 | 4.39 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Johan Oviedo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.58 | 25.0% | 11.0% | 3.3% | — | 4.74 | 24.0% | 12.9% | 116 | +0.16 | — | — | — |
| José Cisnero R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.50 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.9% | .367 | 3.92 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.58 | 2.26 | 279 | 73 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.76 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.34 | 2.42 | 125 | 72 |
| Peyton Gray R 2024 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 104 | 69 |
| Neil Ramírez R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.75 | 27.1% | 12.5% | 4.3% | .389 | 4.77 | 29.1% | 19.7% | 116 | +0.02 | 3.10 | 220 | 69 |
| Brooks Kriske R 2025 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.81 | 28.6% | 12.1% | 4.7% | .261 | 4.45 | 30.7% | 16.5% | 88 | -0.36 | 3.04 | 230 | 69 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 69 |
| Zach McAllister R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.53 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 2.3% | .309 | 4.28 | 24.0% | 17.4% | 119 | +0.75 | 2.83 | 363 | 69 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.57 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.10 | 2.59 | 137 | 68 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.52 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .327 | 4.82 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 74 | +1.30 | 2.39 | 676 | 68 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2029 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 68 |
| David Hernandez R 2028 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 68 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 68 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 25.1% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 283 | 68 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.39 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 1.7% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 166 | 67 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 67 |
| Dayan Díaz R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.43 | 25.1% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .358 | 3.95 | 29.4% | 19.3% | 16 | +0.52 | 3.08 | 205 | 67 |
| Trevor May R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 26.1% | 9.8% | 2.6% | .291 | 3.53 | 31.9% | 23.6% | 150 | -0.06 | 3.04 | 432 | 67 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 66 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2024 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 66 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.51 | 23.3% | 13.6% | 3.0% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.65 | 315 | 66 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.