Johan Oviedo

P Boston Red Sox

Age 29 RHP 6'6" / 275 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.3 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBRPIL-6040-MANArb-3FA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	25	MLBPIT	32	32	178	4.31	4.10	20.2%	10.5%	2.7
2025	27	MIX5 levels	17	17	66	3.39	3.87	28.5%	10.9%	1.2	K 26.9% · BB 11.7% · FIP 4.83
2026	28	MIX2 levels	2	1	6	7.50	6.10	25.9%	7.4%	-0.0	K 25.9% · BB 7.4% · FIP 5.91
2027PROJ	29	MLBBOS	16	16	98	4.44	4.57	26.3%	11.8%	0.9
2028PROJ	30	MLBBOS	19	19	114	4.59	4.73	25.6%	12.1%	0.8
2029PROJ	31	MLBBOS	14	14	86	4.81	4.96	24.9%	12.4%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service5.453First FA2028

2027Arb-3$8M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo64

K%64

xwOBA vs46

CompsAriel Peña (age 28) · Reinier Roibal (age 30) · Andrew Triggs (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.44

FIP4.57

K%26.3%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%14.5%

Proj IP98

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 98 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6495.5

Whiff%

p7929.9%

p6424.7%

xwOBA vs

p460.316

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2020

Service 5.453 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-3	$8M	+0.9	$4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	7	7	22	88	29	6	0	100%	3.1	22.4%	8.5%	13.9%	0.0%	1.66	2.29	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	7	7	22	88	29	6	0	100%	3.1	33.0%	6.8%	26.1%	0.0%	1.66	1.25	—
2017	19	ROK MLE	Johnson City Cardinals	6	6	28	125	31	18	0	100%	4.6	16.9%	18.0%	-1.1%	0.0%	4.88	3.96	—
2017	19	ROK RAW	Johnson City Cardinals	6	6	28	125	31	18	0	100%	4.6	24.8%	14.4%	10.4%	0.0%	4.88	2.81	—
2018	20	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	25	23	122	542	118	79	6	92%	4.9	16.1%	17.2%	-1.1%	1.5%	4.22	4.72	—
2018	20	A RAW	Peoria Chiefs	25	23	122	542	118	79	6	92%	4.9	21.8%	14.6%	7.2%	1.1%	4.22	3.75	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	147	655	163	76	10	97%	5.1	19.9%	12.9%	7.1%	1.7%	4.73	3.98	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	28	147	655	163	76	10	97%	5.1	24.9%	11.6%	13.3%	1.5%	4.73	3.32	—
2020	22	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	5	5	25	112	16	10	3	100%	4.9	14.3%	8.9%	5.4%	2.9%	5.47	4.61	+0.2
2020	22	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	5	5	25	112	16	10	3	100%	4.9	14.3%	8.9%	5.4%	2.7%	5.47	4.60	+0.2
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	117	533	110	64	15	92%	4.5	19.3%	12.3%	7.0%	3.1%	5.48	4.75	+0.9
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	24	117	533	110	64	15	92%	4.5	20.6%	12.0%	8.6%	2.8%	5.48	4.53	+1.2
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	22	117	501	118	49	19	61%	3.3	22.0%	10.0%	12.0%	4.1%	3.99	4.77	+0.9
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	22	117	501	118	49	19	61%	3.3	23.6%	9.8%	13.8%	3.8%	3.99	4.45	+1.3
2023	25	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	32	178	781	158	82	19	100%	5.6	20.2%	10.5%	9.7%	2.6%	4.31	4.17	+2.6
2023	25	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	32	178	781	158	82	19	100%	5.6	20.2%	10.5%	9.7%	2.4%	4.31	4.10	+2.7
2025	27	MIX MLE	5 levels	17	17	66	274	78	30	9	100%	3.9	26.9%	11.7%	15.2%	4.6%	3.39	4.83	+0.4
2025	27	MIX MLE	5 levels	17	17	66	274	78	30	9	100%	3.9	26.9%	11.7%	15.2%	4.6%	3.39	4.83	+0.4
2025	27	MIX RAW	5 levels	17	17	66	274	78	30	9	100%	3.9	28.5%	10.9%	17.5%	3.3%	3.39	3.87	+1.2
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	1	6	27	7	2	2	50%	3.0	25.9%	7.4%	18.5%	7.4%	7.50	5.91	-0.0
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	1	6	27	7	2	2	50%	3.0	25.9%	7.4%	18.5%	7.4%	7.50	5.91	-0.0
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	1	6	27	7	2	2	50%	3.0	25.9%	7.4%	18.5%	7.4%	7.50	6.10	-0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			82	67	365	1611	324	174	43	82%	4.4	20.1%	10.8%	9.3%	2.7%	4.29	4.29	+4.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	BOS	16	16	98	414	109	49	14	100%	6.1	26.3%	11.8%	14.5%	3.3%	4.44	4.57	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	BOS	19	19	114	479	123	58	17	100%	6.0	25.6%	12.1%	13.5%	3.5%	4.64	4.78	+0.8
2029	31	MLB MLE	BOS	14	14	86	363	90	45	14	100%	6.1	24.9%	12.4%	12.4%	3.7%	4.86	5.01	+0.4
2030	32	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	66	277	67	36	11	100%	6.0	24.1%	12.8%	11.2%	4.0%	5.10	5.26	+0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	BOS	19	19	114	481	123	58	17	100%	6.0	25.6%	12.1%	13.5%	3.4%	4.59	4.73	+0.8
2029	31	MLB CTX	BOS	14	14	86	363	90	45	13	100%	6.1	24.9%	12.4%	12.4%	3.7%	4.81	4.96	+0.4
2030	32	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	66	279	67	36	11	100%	6.0	24.1%	12.8%	11.2%	3.9%	5.05	5.21	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		126	111	630	2731	604	313	83	88%	5.0	22.1%	11.4%	10.7%	3.1%	4.50	4.36	+7.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	35	200	867	192	99	26	88%	5.0	22.1%	11.4%	10.7%	3.1%	4.50	4.36	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		185	165	826	3638	727	449	95	89%	4.5	20.0%	12.3%	7.6%	2.6%	4.42	4.41	+6.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	40	200	881	176	109	23	89%	4.5	20.0%	12.3%	7.6%	2.6%	4.42	4.41	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 14 IPFIP 3.78 → 4.84 (+1.06)K% 40.0% → 34.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.00%	—	×0.860	34.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.00%	—	×0.900	5.40%
HR / BF /BF	6.00%	÷0.915	×1.100	7.21%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 3.78 → 4.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAltoona Curve · 8 IPFIP 0.99 → 1.39 (+0.40)K% 25.0% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.810	20.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.100	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.891	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 0.99 → 1.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 61 IPFIP 5.25 → 5.82 (+0.57)K% 24.7% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.71%	—	×0.880	21.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.04%	—	×1.050	10.54%
HR / BF /BF	5.41%	÷1.013	×1.100	5.87%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 5.25 → 5.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 54 IPFIP 4.13 → 4.70 (+0.57)K% 24.1% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.08%	—	×0.880	21.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.84%	—	×1.050	12.43%
HR / BF /BF	2.86%	÷0.949	×1.100	3.31%

Result: FIP 4.13 → 4.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AASpringfield Cardinals · 113 IPFIP 3.54 → 4.17 (+0.64)K% 24.9% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.90%	—	×0.810	20.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.45%	—	×1.100	13.70%
HR / BF /BF	1.75%	÷1.108	×1.200	1.90%

Result: FIP 3.54 → 4.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Palm Beach Cardinals · 34 IPFIP 2.47 → 3.26 (+0.79)K% 24.8% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.82%	—	×0.770	19.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.51%	—	×1.150	9.79%
HR / BF /BF	0.71%	÷0.912	×1.250	0.97%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 2.47 → 3.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 APeoria Chiefs · 122 IPFIP 3.72 → 4.72 (+1.01)K% 21.8% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.77%	—	×0.740	16.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.58%	—	×1.180	17.20%
HR / BF /BF	1.11%	÷0.981	×1.300	1.47%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 3.72 → 4.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ROKJohnson City Cardinals · 28 IPFIP 2.83 → 3.96 (+1.13)K% 24.8% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.80%	—	×0.680	16.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.40%	—	×1.250	18.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.83 → 3.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Johan Oviedo (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.3%	—	4.97	25.0%	12.6%	265	+0.40	—	—	—
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	67
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	62
Andrew Triggs R 2018 · 4.68 FIP	29	SP	4.68	23.6%	9.9%	4.2%	.263	—	—	—	—	—	1.66	242	61
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	60
Stan Spencer R 2000 · 4.42 FIP	30	SP	4.42	19.2%	8.7%	3.4%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	119	60
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	60
Dustin McGowan R 2011 · 5.34 FIP	29	SP-	5.34	20.8%	13.5%	4.2%	.271	4.46	18.5%	9.4%	108	-0.88	3.36	690	59
Anthony Bass R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SP-	3.42	23.6%	9.1%	2.1%	.356	3.43	20.7%	14.2%	141	+0.01	2.93	647	57
Cody Anderson R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	28	SP	4.33	18.9%	7.5%	3.4%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	279	57
Alex Meyer R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	27	SP	3.99	25.5%	12.8%	2.6%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	230	56
Bryan Evans R 2016 · 4.63 FIP	29	SP	4.63	21.0%	5.7%	4.7%	.280	4.47	19.3%	13.7%	139	-0.16	3.89	231	55
Jonathan Pintaro R 2024 · 3.42 FIP	26	SP	3.42	18.9%	9.4%	1.3%	.264	4.07	23.9%	12.1%	153	+0.65	3.42	223	54
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	54
Hiram Burgos R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	29	SP	4.94	19.3%	7.5%	4.6%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	384	54
Yohan Pino R 2014 · 3.84 FIP	30	SP	3.84	19.4%	5.4%	3.1%	.312	4.45	17.1%	11.9%	133	+0.61	3.84	193	53
Dennis O'Grady R 2019 · 3.62 FIP	30	SP	3.62	17.2%	8.1%	1.7%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	53
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	53
J.P. France R 2024 · 5.15 FIP	29	SP	5.15	18.2%	9.9%	4.2%	.317	4.82	18.0%	3.9%	71	-0.33	4.04	577	53
Blair Henley R 2024 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP	5.41	17.2%	12.4%	4.0%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	187	51
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	51

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	82	22.7%	11.6%	1.21	4.51
Bobby Castillo ('77-'85, 5 WAR*)	3.4	86	22.3%*	11.3%*	1.23*	4.27*
Bill Butler ('69-'77, 2 WAR*)	3.0	99	22.0%*	11.3%*	1.30*	4.83*
Darrell Jackson ('78-'82, 3 WAR*)	2.1	82	21.0%*	10.4%*	1.05*	4.43*
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Héctor Santiago ('21)	4.7	105	20.7%	10.6%	1.38	4.12