Josh Smith

2B Toronto Blue Jays

Age 29 L/R 5'9" / 172 lbs MLB Svc 3.750 · Ctrl thru 2029

Overview

MLB40-MANArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	26	MLBTEX	592	.258/.339/.394	13	11	106	2.2
2025	27	MLBTEX	563	.251/.335/.366	10	12	97	1.4
2026	28	MLBTOR	243	.203/.293/.321	6	4	72	-0.2
2027PROJ	29	MLBTOR	464	.233/.316/.350	9	10	90	0.5
2028PROJ	30	MLBTOR	452	.229/.312/.342	8	8	87	0.1
2029PROJ	31	MLBTOR	437	.225/.307/.332	8	4	83	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.750First FA2030

2027Arb-1$2M2028Arb-2$2M2029Arb-3$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Whiff%87

Chase%85

Speed60

xwOBA46

Bat Spd29

Avg EV25

Form.221/.308/.364 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .231/.313/.348

CompsGarrett Stubbs (age 29) · Andy Fox (age 30) · Eric Bruntlett (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 6490vR 100

AVG/OBP/SLG.233 / .316 / .350

PA464

HR9

SB10

K%20

BB%9

BABIP276

ISO117

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

Whiff%

877.2%

xAVG

330.237

POWER40

Barrel%

234.7

Avg EV

2587.2

Bat Spd

2969.1

EYE55

Chase%

8524.8%

SPEED50

Sprint

6027.9

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%24%▼▼29% over 56 PA (60d) · proj 20%

BB%10%▲11% over 56 PA (60d) · proj 9%

ISO.143▲.229 over 48 AB (60d) · proj .117

HR/BB4.3%▲9.1% over 33 BBE (60d) · proj 2.9%

BABIP.270▼.133 over 30 BIP (60d) · proj .275

SLASH.221/.308/.364·proj .231/.313/.348

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1231 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

262

969

—

wRC+

106

▶▶R

wOBA

293

324

▶R

ISO

086

129

▶▶R

BABIP

339

291

◀L

27.1%

16.4%

▶▶R

BB%

6.1%

9.5%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.750 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$2M	+0.9	$4M	+$2M
2028	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	23	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	127	102	30	5	0	3	18	20	6	7	2	294	429	431	860	137	338	16	14	390	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+	Hickory Crawdads	—	174	147	46	15	3	4	18	36	8	14	3	313	416	537	954	224	393	21	10	417	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	50	39	13	0	0	6	7	6	4	5	0	333	480	795	1.275	462	259	12	14	533	170	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	253	213	42	5	0	2	28	50	7	4	3	197	310	249	559	52	244	20	11	265	63	-11	-0	+1	+2	+5	-0.3
2022	24	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	261	221	64	13	4	6	33	54	6	9	4	290	396	466	862	176	358	21	13	384	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	232	195	36	8	1	6	25	55	9	1	0	185	306	328	634	144	222	24	11	291	80	-6	+0	-2	+1	+5	-0.2
2023	25	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	21	18	4	0	0	0	3	5	0	2	0	222	333	222	556		308	24	14	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	592	523	135	30	1	13	46	121	18	11	2	258	339	394	733	136	311	20	8	329	106	+5	+1	+1	+2	+13	2.2
2025	27	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	563	495	124	23	2	10	55	100	8	12	3	251	335	366	700	115	295	18	10	317	97	-2	+1	-3	+6	+12	1.4
2026	28	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	243	212	43	5	1	6	25	56	2	4	1	203	293	321	614	118	243	23	10	278	72	-8	+0	-1	+1	+5	-0.2
2026	28	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	124	103	21	5	0	2	14	20	4	6	0	204	322	311	633	107	226	16	11	290	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1883	1638	380	71	5	37	179	382	44	32	9	232	324	349	673	117	279	20	10	305	93	-16	+3	-4	+12	+41	3.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	23	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	127	109	29	5	0	2	11	23	6	7	2	266	365	367	732	101	311	18	9	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	174	152	35	10	2	4	13	49	8	14	3	230	324	401	725	171	318	28	7	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	50	41	12	0	0	5	5	8	4	5	0	293	420	659	1.079	366	223	16	10	419	170	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	253	213	42	5	0	2	28	50	7	4	3	197	310	249	559	52	244	20	11	262	63	-11	-0	+1	+2	+5	-0.3
2022	24	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	261	231	61	12	4	5	23	64	6	9	4	264	346	416	762	152	340	25	9	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	232	195	36	8	1	6	25	55	9	1	0	185	306	328	634	144	222	24	11	286	80	-6	+0	-2	+1	+5	-0.2
2024	26	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	592	524	135	31	1	12	45	121	18	11	2	258	337	389	727	132	311	20	8	325	106	+5	+1	+1	+2	+13	2.2
2025	27	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	563	498	124	24	2	9	53	100	8	12	3	249	331	359	690	110	295	18	9	312	97	-2	+1	-3	+6	+12	1.4
2026	28	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	243	213	43	5	1	6	24	56	2	4	1	202	289	319	608	117	243	23	10	274	72	-8	+0	-1	+1	+5	-0.2
2026	28	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	124	107	18	4	0	1	10	24	4	6	0	168	264	234	498	65	190	19	8	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	351	302	76	15	2	11	29	81	18	26	5	252	352	424	776	172	308	23	8	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	351	288	89	20	3	13	43	62	18	26	5	309	430	535	965	226	355	18	12	424	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	514	444	101	17	4	6	51	114	13	13	7	227	325	324	649	97	290	22	10	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	514	434	106	18	4	8	61	104	13	13	7	244	354	359	714	115	301	20	12	325	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	253	214	39	9	1	6	27	60	9	3	0	182	300	318	618	136	221	24	11	286	80	-6	+1	-2	+1	+5	-0.1
2023	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	253	213	40	8	1	6	28	60	9	3	0	188	308	319	627	131	230	24	11	289	80	-6	+1	-2	+1	+5	-0.1
2024	26	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	592	524	135	31	1	12	45	121	18	11	2	258	337	389	727	132	312	20	8	325	106	+5	+1	+1	+2	+13	2.2
2024	26	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	—	592	523	135	30	1	13	46	121	18	11	2	258	339	394	733	136	311	20	8	329	106	+5	+1	+1	+2	+13	2.2
2025	27	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	563	498	124	24	2	9	53	100	8	12	3	249	331	359	690	110	295	18	9	312	97	-2	+1	-3	+6	+12	1.4
2025	27	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	—	563	495	124	23	2	10	55	100	8	12	3	251	335	366	700	115	295	18	10	317	97	-2	+1	-3	+6	+12	1.4
2026	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	367	320	61	9	1	7	34	80	6	10	1	191	281	291	571	100	227	22	9	261	62	-16	+2	-1	+1	+8	-0.7
2026	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	367	315	64	10	1	8	39	76	6	10	1	203	303	317	620	114	237	21	11	282	62	-16	+2	-1	+1	+8	-0.7
2021	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	351	301	76	15	2	11	29	81	18	26	5	252	352	425	778	173	302	23	8	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	514	445	101	17	4	6	51	114	13	13	7	227	325	324	648	97	293	22	10	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	253	215	39	9	1	6	27	60	9	3	0	181	300	316	616	135	222	24	11	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	592	524	135	31	1	12	45	121	18	11	2	258	337	389	727	132	311	20	8	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	563	497	124	24	2	9	53	100	8	12	3	249	331	360	691	111	295	18	9	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	367	324	61	9	1	7	34	80	6	10	1	188	281	287	568	99	225	22	9	261	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	26	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	592	524	135	31	1	12	45	121	18	11	2	258	337	389	727	132	311	20	8	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	563	497	124	24	2	9	53	100	8	12	3	249	331	360	691	111	295	18	9	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	367	324	61	9	1	7	34	80	6	10	1	188	281	287	568	99	225	22	9	261	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	29	MLB MLE	TOR	100%	464	411	94	17	1	9	42	92	8	10	3	232	315	349	664	117	275	20	9	301	90	-6	+1	-2	+2	+10	0.9
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	29	MLB CTX	TOR	100%	464	411	95	17	2	9	42	92	8	10	3	233	316	350	665	117	276	20	9	302	90	-6	+1	-2	+2	+10	0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	TOR	100%	452	401	91	17	1	8	40	91	8	8	2	229	312	341	652	112	273	20	9	296	87	-7	+1	-4	+2	+10	0.1
2029	31	MLB MLE	TOR	100%	437	388	87	16	1	8	39	90	7	4	2	224	307	331	637	106	270	21	9	290	83	-9	+0	-4	+2	+9	-0.3
2030	32	MLB MLE	TOR	100%	418	372	81	14	1	7	36	88	7	1	1	218	300	317	617	99	266	21	9	282	77	-11	-0	-5	+1	+9	-0.6
2028	30	MLB CTX	TOR	100%	452	401	91	17	1	8	40	91	8	8	2	229	312	342	654	112	274	20	9	297	87	-7	+1	-4	+2	+10	0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	TOR	100%	437	388	88	16	1	8	39	90	7	4	2	225	307	332	639	106	271	21	9	291	83	-9	+0	-4	+2	+9	-0.3
2030	32	MLB CTX	TOR	100%	418	372	81	14	1	7	36	88	7	1	1	219	301	318	618	99	267	21	9	283	77	-11	-0	-5	+1	+9	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3190	2799	640	118	8	60	294	651	66	45	14	229	316	341	657	112	276	20	9	299	89	-44	+3	-18	+17	+69	2.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	570	131	24	2	12	60	133	13	9	3	230	317	342	659	112	278	20	9	299	89	-9	+1	-4	+3	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	4411	3874	889	169	15	83	396	917	102	98	26	229	317	345	662	116	278	21	9	300	89	-49	+4	-19	+19	+79	3.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	571	131	25	2	12	58	135	15	14	4	229	316	343	660	114	279	21	9	300	89	-9	+1	-3	+3	+14	0.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Luis Valbuenalast yr '18 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,527 PA	5.3	3,527	113	10	226	311	395	+13	+1	10.5	11.2
/162	664	21	2	+2.4	+0.1	2.0	pk7: 12
#2Logan Forsythelast yr '19 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,502 PA	5.3	3,502	70	42	246	327	370	+5	-11	8.6	9.2
/162	664	13	8	+0.9	-2.2	1.6	pk7: 10
#3Charlie Gelbert'29-'40 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,215 PA	4.8	3,215	17	34	236*	311*	369*	+30	+5	6.3	8.2
/162	664	4	7	+6.2	+1.1	1.3	pk7: 10
#4Dick Egan'08-'16 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,547 PA	5.3	3,547	4	167	245*	310*	356*	+14	+0	6.9	8.2
/162	664	1	31	+2.6	+0.1	1.3	pk7: 10
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	5.5	3,654	69	56	230	313	343	+22	-4	7.8	8.0
/162	664	13	10	+4.1	-0.8	1.4	pk7: 8
#5Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	4.1	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
/162	664	10	19	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7
#6Tom Downey'09-'15 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,468 PA	3.7	2,468	7	87	234*	299*	359*	+17	-2	3.8	3.8
/162	664	2	23	+4.6	-0.5	1.0	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Josh Smith (OGILVIE)	29	50	40	50	55	230/313/346	116	275	9	10	20%	9%	90	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Garrett Stubbs 2022 · MLB	29	45	42→45	53→50	53	218/303/322	104	272	10	15	22%	10%	80	-0.1	228/308/345	117	295	11	12	25%	10%	87	+0.4	218/301/316	98	287	9	12	25%	9%	79	-0.1
✕Andy Fox 2001 · MLB	30	47→52	43→40	51→60	48	233/293/345	112	275	11	18	20%	7%	81	-0.1	231/310/336	105	278	9	22	19%	9%	86	+0.3	233/312/310	77	292	4	31	20%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Eric Bruntlett 2007 · MLB	29	48→51	44→40	52→55	54	235/315/357	122	275	11	18	18%	10%	93	+0.8	225/296/306	81	271	5	19	17%	8%	73	-0.6	216/286/281	65	263	2	21	17%	8%	63	-0.6
✕Ed Lucas 2011 · AAA	29	49→55	45	52→50	49	243/308/366	123	296	13	13	22%	8%	91	+0.7	221/274/330	109	281	11	7	25%	6%	71	-0.8	250/299/321	71	322	5	3	23%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Shane Robinson 2014 · MLB	29	51→56	43→45	54→55	55	248/320/357	109	277	10	14	14%	9%	94	+0.9	232/294/315	83	270	5	13	15%	8%	74	-0.5	242/289/308	67	280	2	20	13%	6%	69	-0.4
✕Cliff Pennington 2013 · MLB	29	49→54	42→45	51→55	50	238/298/347	109	280	9	19	19%	8%	83	+0.1	232/300/320	88	281	7	12	19%	8%	78	-0.3	220/296/300	80	278	7	9	22%	9%	72	-0.3
●Zach McKinstry 2024 · MLB	29	48→53	46→55	52→55	49	238/305/376	138	290	13	14	22%	8%	93	+0.8	235/306/375	140	287	11	18	21%	8%	93	+0.8	229/305/367	138	276	10	18	20%	9%	91	+0.5
✕J.C. Escarra 2024 · AAA	29	44→45	44→45	52→45	45	216/287/331	115	279	11	11	26%	7%	76	-0.4	224/292/345	121	261	11	6	18%	8%	81	-0.1	220/289/338	117	255	10	3	17%	7%	76	-0.2
✕Luis Ordaz 2005 · MLB	29	48	45→40	46→50	54	237/311/363	126	267	13	11	17%	9%	92	+0.7	249/283/353	104	278	9	8	14%	4%	78	-0.3	256/280/336	80	296	5	8	15%	3%	73	-0.2
✕Howie Clark 2003 · MLB	29	52→55	45→40	49→40	51	254/322/383	129	283	11	8	15%	7%	101	+1.4	266/329/380	114	288	10	6	11%	8%	102	+1.5	250/310/332	82	268	7	3	9%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Mitch Maier 2011 · MLB	29	53→56	42→50	49→50	53	253/319/361	108	296	8	9	17%	9%	94	+0.9	239/317/356	117	305	10	9	23%	10%	93	+0.8	230/317/338	108	308	10	9	26%	11%	87	+0.1
✕Wilmer Difo 2021 · MLB	29	47→56	42→45	50→55	48	226/287/327	102	281	9	14	22%	8%	74	-0.5	229/284/330	101	283	10	11	22%	7%	74	-0.6	216/273/305	88	267	8	15	21%	7%	63	-0.7
✕Val Majewski 2010 · AAA	29	47→54	45	48→50	47	233/289/357	124	273	12	10	20%	6%	82	+0.0	223/278/343	120	274	12	9	23%	7%	75	-0.5	216/269/322	106	265	10	8	22%	6%	64	-0.6
✕Jose Munoz 2008 · AAA	29	49	42→45	43→50	55	238/317/340	103	281	9	9	18%	10%	89	+0.5	240/313/348	108	286	8	11	17%	9%	89	+0.5	241/316/345	104	287	6	9	17%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Danny Mendick 2024 · MLB	30	48→47	43→45	50	48	234/297/344	110	280	11	13	20%	7%	82	+0.0	221/276/358	137	270	15	14	24%	6%	78	-0.3	197/245/343	146	238	18	15	26%	5%	61	-0.9
✕Josh Johnson 2014 · AAA	28	52→50	42→45	48→50	52	251/316/358	107	291	9	15	17%	8%	92	+0.7	230/298/303	73	277	5	11	17%	9%	73	-0.6	217/291/257	40	264	1	8	17%	9%	60	-0.7
✕Greg Garcia 2019 · MLB	29	50→55	41→40	46→50	55	240/332/333	94	294	8	7	20%	11%	94	+0.9	239/336/347	108	306	8	6	22%	12%	98	+1.2	249/364/356	107	326	6	0	22%	14%	111	+1.3
✕Hoy Park 2024 · MLB	28	46→52	43→45	55	50	222/304/331	109	298	11	18	28%	10%	82	+0.0	226/308/337	111	306	10	17	27%	10%	85	+0.2	219/309/321	102	296	9	18	26%	11%	80	-0.1
✕Ehire Adrianza 2019 · MLB	29	50→52	44→50	49→50	47	245/296/371	126	292	11	11	20%	6%	88	+0.4	243/314/373	130	293	11	6	20%	8%	95	+1.0	241/324/372	132	288	11	1	19%	9%	100	+0.4
✕Juan Carlos Gamboa 2019 · AAA	28	51	43→45	47→50	45	249/305/362	113	310	11	10	23%	7%	89	+0.5	248/314/362	114	323	12	9	25%	8%	93	+0.8	257/325/354	98	335	10	5	25%	8%	95	+0.7

Josh Smith

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps