Jeremiah Estrada
P
San Diego Padres
Age 27
RHP
6'1" / 185 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 0.7 · 2026
ILInjured 15-Day (D15)
2026 ROS PROJECTION23 act + 38 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9283vR 74
ERA3.14
FIP3.14
K%34.2%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%25.4%
ROS IP38
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6895.8
Whiff%
p9033.3%
K%
p8128.0%
xwOBA vs
p680.294
FB+1.5 (58%)
SL (10%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | AZL Cubs | 4 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 20.7% | 20.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.42 | 3.97 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | AZL Cubs | 4 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 20.7% | 20.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.42 | 4.05 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 11 | 2 | 23 | 93 | 38 | 6 | 2 | 18% | 2.1 | 30.2% | 7.6% | 22.6% | 2.9% | 1.57 | 3.12 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 11 | 2 | 23 | 93 | 38 | 6 | 2 | 18% | 2.1 | 40.9% | 6.5% | 34.4% | 2.2% | 1.57 | 1.71 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 39 | 0 | 54 | 218 | 86 | 21 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 30.9% | 11.4% | 19.5% | 0.9% | 1.50 | 2.40 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 39 | 0 | 54 | 218 | 86 | 21 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 39.4% | 9.6% | 29.8% | 0.9% | 1.50 | 1.56 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 39 | 194 | 56 | 37 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.2% | 19.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.18 | 7.17 | -1.2 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 39 | 194 | 56 | 37 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.9% | 19.1% | 9.8% | 6.2% | 6.18 | 7.04 | -1.1 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 70 | 0 | 70 | 285 | 114 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 37.3% | 8.7% | 28.6% | 1.7% | 2.84 | 1.99 | +2.3 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 70 | 0 | 70 | 285 | 114 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 40.0% | 8.8% | 31.2% | 1.4% | 2.84 | 1.65 | +2.5 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 77 | 0 | 73 | 304 | 108 | 25 | 12 | 0% | 0.9 | 35.5% | 8.2% | 27.3% | 4.2% | 3.45 | 3.47 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 77 | 0 | 73 | 304 | 108 | 25 | 12 | 0% | 0.9 | 35.5% | 8.2% | 27.3% | 3.9% | 3.45 | 3.31 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 23 | 0 | 23 | 89 | 25 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.0% | 12.2% | 15.9% | 2.4% | 3.18 | 3.61 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SD | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 55 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 34.2% | 8.8% | 25.4% | 3.3% | 3.14 | 3.14 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SD | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 55 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 34.2% | 8.8% | 25.4% | 3.2% | 3.08 | 3.08 | +0.7 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | SD | — | — | 61 | 249 | 80 | 25 | 7 | — | — | 32.0% | 10.0% | 22.0% | 2.9% | 3.15 | 3.32 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | SD | — | — | 59 | 247 | 80 | 25 | 7 | — | — | 32.2% | 10.1% | 22.1% | 2.9% | 3.22 | 3.24 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SD | 59 | 0 | 62 | 261 | 91 | 23 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 34.8% | 8.9% | 26.0% | 3.4% | 3.51 | 3.54 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SD | 56 | 0 | 59 | 250 | 85 | 23 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 34.2% | 9.1% | 25.2% | 3.6% | 3.62 | 3.70 | +0.6 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SD | 56 | 0 | 59 | 249 | 87 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 34.8% | 8.9% | 26.0% | 3.3% | 3.44 | 3.47 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SD | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 81 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 34.2% | 9.1% | 25.2% | 3.4% | 3.55 | 3.63 | +0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 323 | 0 | 324 | 1365 | 468 | 129 | 44 | 0% | 1.0 | 34.3% | 9.4% | 24.9% | 3.3% | 3.44 | 3.18 | +8.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 199 | 0 | 200 | 843 | 289 | 80 | 27 | 0% | 1.0 | 34.3% | 9.4% | 24.9% | 3.3% | 3.44 | 3.18 | +5.2 | ||
| Career | — | 262 | 2 | 288 | 1212 | 392 | 137 | 38 | 1% | 1.1 | 32.3% | 11.3% | 21.0% | 3.1% | 3.09 | 3.52 | +6.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 182 | 1 | 200 | 842 | 272 | 95 | 26 | 1% | 1.1 | 32.3% | 11.3% | 21.0% | 3.1% | 3.09 | 3.52 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jeremiah Estrada (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.27 | 36.9% | 7.9% | 3.5% | — | 3.62 | 34.6% | 25.6% | 121 | +0.35 | — | — | — |
| Craig Kimbrel R 2026 · 2.62 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.62 | 36.4% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .272 | 2.09 | 42.6% | 32.3% | 184 | -0.53 | 0.89 | 599 | 77 |
| Dellin Betances R 2026 · 2.14 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.14 | 39.5% | 11.4% | 1.7% | .248 | 2.01 | 41.0% | 29.6% | 199 | -0.13 | 1.58 | 308 | 77 |
| Cody Allen R 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.19 | 33.0% | 9.5% | 3.0% | .229 | 4.21 | 29.4% | 19.2% | 157 | +1.02 | 1.58 | 295 | 75 |
| Héctor Neris R 2026 · 2.97 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.97 | 31.1% | 8.2% | 2.6% | .263 | 3.22 | 32.0% | 24.1% | 209 | +0.25 | 1.97 | 682 | 72 |
| Raisel Iglesias R 2026 · 2.49 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.49 | 30.1% | 8.5% | 1.6% | .284 | 3.35 | 30.3% | 23.6% | 162 | +0.86 | 1.35 | 797 | 72 |
| Zach McAllister R 2026 · 2.82 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.82 | 28.1% | 6.4% | 2.4% | .333 | 3.91 | 23.5% | 16.0% | 159 | +1.09 | 2.82 | 363 | 72 |
| Jordan Jankowski R 2026 · 2.91 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.91 | 30.3% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .296 | 4.26 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 62 | +1.35 | 2.57 | 196 | 71 |
| Ben Heller R 2024 · 2.65 FIP | 25 | SU | 2.65 | 32.4% | 9.4% | 2.0% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 246 | 71 |
| Justin Grimm R 2026 · 3.03 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.03 | 28.9% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .313 | 4.33 | 25.2% | 13.4% | 170 | +1.30 | 2.93 | 335 | 70 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.54 | 31.7% | 13.1% | 2.7% | .264 | 2.30 | 30.3% | 22.6% | 30 | -1.24 | 2.30 | 132 | 70 |
| Pedro Strop R 2029 · 2.64 FIP | 30 | SU | 2.64 | 30.0% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .211 | 2.84 | 26.9% | 18.5% | 167 | +0.20 | 2.48 | 277 | 69 |
| Michael Tonkin R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.33 | 29.2% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .309 | 6.08 | 21.8% | 8.3% | 22 | +2.75 | 2.33 | 480 | 69 |
| Trevor May R 2025 · 3.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.51 | 32.1% | 8.6% | 3.7% | .308 | 3.60 | 28.1% | 18.5% | 117 | +0.09 | 3.04 | 432 | 68 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.99 | 28.2% | 9.7% | 3.7% | .277 | 4.83 | 16.8% | 2.7% | 45 | +0.84 | 3.74 | 163 | 68 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.70 | 27.2% | 8.0% | 3.4% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 103 | 68 |
| Drew Steckenrider R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.32 | 27.2% | 8.1% | 2.7% | .284 | 3.95 | 22.1% | 16.0% | 82 | +0.63 | 2.65 | 392 | 68 |
| Luke Jackson R 2026 · 2.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.89 | 33.7% | 7.0% | 3.2% | .373 | 3.55 | 23.4% | 13.3% | 90 | +0.66 | 2.67 | 580 | 67 |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 2.36 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.36 | 29.4% | 6.1% | 1.8% | .287 | 3.81 | 20.3% | 13.9% | 106 | +1.45 | 2.36 | 172 | 67 |
| Mychal Givens R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.33 | 27.9% | 7.6% | 2.9% | .244 | 3.47 | 28.4% | 19.3% | 162 | +0.14 | 1.75 | 526 | 67 |
| Wade Davis R 2028 · 2.14 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.14 | 31.1% | 7.6% | 1.3% | .199 | 2.82 | 30.0% | 19.8% | 167 | +0.68 | 2.00 | 320 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 60 | 35.3% | 8.6% | 1.35 | 3.47 |
| Cody Allen ('19) | 5 | 59 | 31.3% | 10.2% | 1.19 | 3.51 |
| Andrew Miller ('21) | 6 | 54 | 35.9% | 8.3% | 0.97 | 2.73 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| Keone Kela ('19) | 5 | 43 | 30.1% | 9.4% | 0.92 | 3.23 |
| Brad Peacock ('19) | 4 | 80 | 28.7% | 9.2% | 1.18 | 3.48 |
| Diego Castillo ('22) | 5 | 52 | 28.1% | 8.9% | 1.07 | 3.12 |