Jeremiah Estrada

Jeremiah Estrada P San Diego Padres

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 185 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 0.7 · 2026 ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 ROS PROJECTION36 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9385vR 76

ERA3.16

FIP3.13

K%34.2%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%25.0%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL4545

CMD7575

K†8080

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7095.9

Whiff%

p9031.7%

p9030.2%

xwOBA vs

p770.286

FB+1.5 (58%)

SL (10%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 2.401 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.2M
2027	Arb-2	$2M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2028	Arb-3	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.4M
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$6M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	18	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs	4	0	6	29	6	6	0	0%	1.6	20.7%	20.7%	0.0%	0.0%	1.42	3.97	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	AZL Cubs	4	0	6	29	6	6	0	0%	1.6	20.7%	20.7%	0.0%	0.0%	1.42	4.05	—
2021	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	11	2	23	93	38	6	2	18%	2.1	30.2%	7.6%	22.6%	2.9%	1.57	3.08	—
2021	22	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	11	2	23	93	38	6	2	18%	2.1	40.9%	6.5%	34.4%	2.2%	1.57	1.71	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	39	0	54	218	86	21	2	0%	1.4	30.9%	11.4%	19.5%	0.8%	1.50	2.37	+1.4
2022	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	39	0	54	218	86	21	2	0%	1.4	39.4%	9.6%	29.8%	0.9%	1.50	1.56	+2.0
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	39	194	56	37	12	0%	1.0	25.1%	17.7%	7.4%	6.8%	6.18	6.98	-1.1
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	39	194	56	37	12	0%	1.0	25.1%	17.7%	7.4%	6.8%	6.18	6.98	-1.1
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	39	194	56	37	12	0%	1.0	28.9%	19.1%	9.8%	6.2%	6.18	7.04	-1.1
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	70	0	70	285	114	25	4	0%	1.0	37.3%	8.7%	28.6%	1.5%	2.84	1.91	+2.2
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	70	0	70	285	114	25	4	0%	1.0	37.3%	8.7%	28.6%	1.5%	2.84	1.91	+2.2
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	70	0	70	285	114	25	4	0%	1.0	40.0%	8.8%	31.2%	1.4%	2.84	1.65	+2.4
2025	26	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	77	0	73	304	108	25	12	0%	0.9	35.5%	8.2%	27.3%	3.9%	3.45	3.26	+1.1
2025	26	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	77	0	73	304	108	25	12	0%	0.9	35.5%	8.2%	27.3%	3.9%	3.45	3.26	+1.1
2025	26	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	77	0	73	304	108	25	12	0%	0.9	35.5%	8.2%	27.3%	3.9%	3.45	3.31	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			189	0	181	763	261	77	23	0%	1.0	34.2%	10.1%	24.1%	3.0%	3.47	3.14	+3.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	39	0	36	145	43	20	2	0%	0.9	30.2%	12.7%	17.5%	1.5%	3.03	3.01	+0.7
YTD	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	39	0	36	145	43	20	2	0%	0.9	30.2%	12.7%	17.5%	1.5%	3.03	3.01	+0.7
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	ROK RAW	SD	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2026	27	A RAW	SD	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	SD	4	0	3	13	4	4	0	0%	0.7	30.8%	30.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.40	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	SD	33	0	31	126	38	16	2	0%	0.9	30.2%	12.7%	17.5%	1.6%	3.48	3.03	+0.6
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	SD	33	0	31	126	38	16	2	0%	0.9	30.2%	12.7%	17.5%	1.6%	3.48	3.03	+0.6
ROS	27	MLB MLE	SD	4	0	5	19	7	2	1	0%	1.2	34.2%	9.2%	25.0%	3.2%	3.16	3.13	+0.1
ROS	27	MLB CTX	SD	5	0	5	21	7	2	1	0%	1.0	34.2%	9.2%	25.0%	3.3%	3.20	3.17	+0.1
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	SD	—	—	40	164	50	22	3	—	—	30.2%	13.2%	16.9%	1.6%	3.04	3.02	+0.8
FULL	27	MLB A+C	SD	—	—	36	150	50	22	3	—	—	33.0%	14.5%	18.5%	1.8%	3.45	3.11	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	SD	59	0	62	261	91	24	8	0%	1.0	34.7%	9.3%	25.4%	3.1%	3.38	3.40	+0.9
2028	29	MLB MLE	SD	56	0	59	250	85	24	8	0%	1.1	34.1%	9.5%	24.6%	3.2%	3.49	3.56	+0.7
2027	28	MLB CTX	SD	56	0	59	249	86	23	8	0%	1.1	34.7%	9.3%	25.4%	3.1%	3.42	3.44	+0.8
2028	29	MLB CTX	SD	53	0	56	236	81	22	8	0%	1.1	34.1%	9.5%	24.6%	3.3%	3.53	3.60	+0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		303	0	301	1268	435	124	39	0%	1.0	34.3%	9.8%	24.5%	3.1%	3.47	3.14	+5.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		201	0	200	843	289	82	26	0%	1.0	34.3%	9.8%	24.5%	3.1%	3.47	3.14	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		278	2	301	1268	408	141	36	1%	1.1	32.2%	11.1%	21.1%	2.8%	3.08	3.35	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		185	1	200	843	271	93	24	1%	1.1	32.2%	11.1%	21.1%	2.8%	3.08	3.35	+3.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jeremiah Estrada (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.18	36.8%	7.8%	3.3%	—	3.48	34.4%	25.0%	121	+0.30	—	—	—
Trevor Rosenthal R 2017 · 2.05 FIP	27	SU	2.05	37.6%	9.9%	1.6%	.330	3.21	33.2%	15.9%	39	+1.16	1.86	196	81
Cody Allen R 2016 · 3.18 FIP	27	SU	3.18	33.0%	9.5%	3.0%	.229	4.17	29.4%	19.2%	157	+0.99	1.58	295	79
Dellin Betances R 2015 · 2.15 FIP	27	SU	2.15	39.5%	11.4%	1.7%	.248	2.02	41.0%	29.6%	199	-0.13	1.59	308	79
Raisel Iglesias R 2017 · 2.47 FIP	27	SU	2.47	30.1%	8.5%	1.5%	.284	3.30	30.3%	23.6%	162	+0.83	1.34	820	78
Craig Kimbrel R 2015 · 2.48 FIP	27	SU	2.48	36.4%	8.8%	2.5%	.272	2.13	42.6%	32.3%	184	-0.35	0.94	601	77
Héctor Neris R 2016 · 2.92 FIP	27	SU	2.92	31.1%	8.2%	2.6%	.263	3.16	32.0%	24.1%	209	+0.24	2.03	682	75
Justin Grimm R 2016 · 3.11 FIP	27	SU	3.11	28.9%	9.3%	2.3%	.313	4.33	25.2%	13.4%	170	+1.22	3.00	335	74
Michael Tonkin R 2017 · 3.32 FIP	27	SU	3.32	29.2%	9.6%	2.7%	.309	6.30	21.8%	8.3%	22	+2.98	2.31	480	73
Jordan Jankowski R 2016 · 2.95 FIP	27	SU	2.95	30.3%	9.8%	2.1%	.296	4.23	23.4%	8.8%	62	+1.28	2.57	196	73
Ben Heller R 2017 · 2.86 FIP	25	SU	2.86	32.4%	9.4%	2.4%	.243	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	246	72
Zach McAllister R 2015 · 2.82 FIP	27	SU	2.82	28.1%	6.4%	2.4%	.333	3.88	23.5%	16.0%	159	+1.06	2.82	363	72
Jon Edwards R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	31.7%	13.1%	2.4%	.264	2.40	30.3%	22.6%	30	-1.00	2.40	132	71
Trevor May R 2016 · 3.52 FIP	26	SU	3.52	32.1%	8.6%	3.7%	.308	3.57	28.1%	18.5%	117	+0.05	3.05	432	71
Pedro Strop R 2015 · 2.70 FIP	30	SU	2.70	30.0%	8.5%	1.9%	.211	2.90	26.9%	18.5%	167	+0.20	2.56	277	71
Mychal Givens R 2017 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	27.9%	7.6%	2.9%	.244	3.48	28.4%	19.3%	162	+0.20	1.77	526	71
Luke Jackson R 2019 · 2.89 FIP	27	SU	2.89	33.7%	7.0%	3.2%	.373	3.55	23.4%	13.3%	90	+0.66	2.67	580	70
Drew Steckenrider R 2018 · 3.31 FIP	27	SU	3.31	27.2%	8.1%	2.7%	.284	3.92	22.1%	16.0%	82	+0.61	2.61	392	70
Alex Colomé R 2016 · 2.73 FIP	27	SU	2.73	31.4%	6.2%	2.7%	.274	3.28	22.8%	15.9%	196	+0.55	2.72	530	69
Matt Barnes R 2017 · 3.27 FIP	27	SU	3.27	28.9%	9.8%	2.5%	.296	3.03	36.3%	24.3%	149	-0.24	2.54	495	68
Jason Stoffel R 2016 · 3.49 FIP	27	SU	3.49	27.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.49	103	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	60	35.2%	8.9%	1.23	3.36
Keone Kela ('19)	1.1	43	30.1%	9.4%	0.92	3.23
Diego Castillo ('22)	1.3	52	28.1%	8.9%	1.07	3.12
Corey Knebel ('22)	1.4	47	32.3%	11.2%	0.95	3.04
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Brad Peacock ('19)	1.6	80	28.7%	9.2%	1.18	3.48
Giovanny Gallegos ('24)	1.5	52	29.4%	6.6%	1.19	3.46