Jeremiah Estrada
P
San Diego Padres
+1.3
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'1" / 185 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 1.1 · 2026
ERA3.53
FIP3.52
xFIP4.38
SIERA4.33
K%33.1%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%24.0%
IP63
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.1peak
2026
K†8080
FB Velo
p9097.9
Whiff%
p9034.9%
K%
p9035.5%
xwOBA vs
p900.260
FB+1.5 (66%)
SL (10%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | AZL Cubs | 4 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 6 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.42 | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 11 | 2 | 23 | 93 | 38 | 6 | 2 | 30.2% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 1.57 | 3.07 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 23 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 39 | 0 | 54 | 218 | 86 | 21 | 2 | 30.9% | 11.4% | 0.8% | 1.50 | 2.38 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 38 | 0 | 39 | 194 | 56 | 37 | 12 | 26.2% | 19.7% | 6.7% | 6.18 | 7.08 | -0.9 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 70 | 0 | 70 | 285 | 114 | 25 | 4 | 37.3% | 8.7% | 1.4% | 2.84 | 1.85 | +2.5 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 77 | 0 | 73 | 304 | 108 | 25 | 12 | 35.5% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 3.45 | 3.06 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 8 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 5.14 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SD | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 82 | 21 | 7 | 34.4% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 3.43 | 3.45 | +1.0 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | SD | — | — | 63 | 267 | 90 | 26 | 7 | 33.6% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 3.62 | 3.07 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 88 | 26 | 8 | 33.4% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 3.52 | 3.54 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 61 | 257 | 85 | 25 | 8 | 32.9% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 3.58 | 3.61 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SD | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 81 | 25 | 8 | 32.4% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 3.66 | 3.71 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | SD | 57 | — | 57 | 241 | 76 | 24 | 8 | 31.8% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 3.75 | 3.81 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | SD | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 72 | 23 | 8 | 31.1% | 10.2% | 3.3% | 3.86 | 3.93 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | SD | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 67 | 23 | 7 | 30.5% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 3.98 | 4.05 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | SD | 50 | — | 50 | 209 | 62 | 22 | 7 | 29.8% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 4.11 | 4.19 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | SD | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 57 | 21 | 7 | 29.0% | 10.8% | 3.6% | 4.25 | 4.34 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | SD | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 52 | 20 | 7 | 28.3% | 11.0% | 3.7% | 4.40 | 4.51 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 37 | MLB | SD | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 47 | 19 | 7 | 27.5% | 11.3% | 3.8% | 4.57 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 246 | 2 | 272 | 1153 | 375 | 131 | 32 | 32.5% | 11.4% | 2.8% | 3.14 | 3.33 | +6.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 181 | 1 | 200 | 847 | 275 | 96 | 24 | 32.5% | 11.4% | 2.8% | 3.14 | 3.33 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jeremiah Estrada (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.45 | 34.4% | 9.0% | 3.2% | — | 3.62 | 32.9% | 23.1% | 182 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Ryne Stanek R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.66 | 30.8% | 9.9% | 3.5% | .250 | 3.84 | 27.9% | 16.5% | 145 | +0.18 | 2.94 | 708 | 77 |
| Craig Kimbrel R 2026 · 2.46 FIP | 27 | SW | 2.46 | 36.4% | 8.8% | 2.4% | .272 | 2.16 | 42.6% | 32.3% | 184 | -0.30 | 1.10 | 556 | 77 |
| Raisel Iglesias R 2026 · 2.46 FIP | 27 | SW | 2.46 | 30.1% | 8.5% | 1.5% | .284 | 3.30 | 30.3% | 23.6% | 162 | +0.84 | 1.32 | 765 | 76 |
| Zach McAllister R 2026 · 2.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 2.83 | 28.1% | 6.4% | 2.4% | .333 | 3.89 | 23.5% | 16.0% | 159 | +1.06 | 2.83 | 363 | 76 |
| Jordan Jankowski R 2026 · 2.94 FIP | 27 | SW | 2.94 | 30.3% | 9.8% | 2.1% | .296 | 4.23 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 62 | +1.29 | 2.57 | 196 | 75 |
| Justin Grimm R 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.19 | 28.9% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .313 | 4.23 | 25.2% | 13.4% | 170 | +1.04 | 2.87 | 335 | 75 |
| Cody Allen R 2026 · 2.99 FIP | 27 | SW | 2.99 | 33.0% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .229 | 4.21 | 29.4% | 19.2% | 157 | +1.22 | 1.58 | 295 | 75 |
| Ben Heller R 2024 · 2.93 FIP | 25 | SW | 2.93 | 32.4% | 9.4% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 246 | 73 |
| Drew Steckenrider R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.40 | 27.2% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.87 | 22.1% | 16.0% | 82 | +0.47 | 2.62 | 392 | 73 |
| Michael Tonkin R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.24 | 29.2% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .309 | 6.36 | 21.8% | 8.3% | 22 | +3.12 | 2.30 | 480 | 72 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.39 | 31.7% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .264 | 2.39 | 30.3% | 22.6% | 30 | -1.00 | 2.39 | 132 | 72 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.51 | 27.2% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 103 | 72 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 72 |
| Pedro Strop R 2029 · 2.58 FIP | 30 | SW | 2.58 | 30.0% | 8.5% | 1.7% | .211 | 2.91 | 26.9% | 18.5% | 167 | +0.33 | 2.58 | 277 | 72 |
| Trevor Rosenthal R 2026 · 2.07 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.07 | 37.6% | 9.9% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.08 | 33.2% | 15.9% | 39 | +1.01 | 1.64 | 196 | 72 |
| Simon Castro R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.26 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .320 | 3.48 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.22 | 3.07 | 185 | 71 |
| Mychal Givens R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.31 | 27.9% | 7.6% | 2.9% | .244 | 3.55 | 28.4% | 19.3% | 162 | +0.24 | 1.77 | 526 | 70 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.86 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .280 | 4.05 | 28.5% | 17.2% | 107 | +0.19 | 3.02 | 363 | 70 |
| Justin Miller R 2027 · 2.67 FIP | 28 | SW | 2.67 | 27.6% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .248 | 4.17 | 22.1% | 14.7% | 153 | +1.50 | 2.67 | 279 | 70 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.48 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.74 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 168 | +0.26 | 1.69 | 468 | 69 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2
MLB Debut 2022
Service 2.401 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2029
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.1 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $2M | +1.0 | $8M | +$6M |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $4M | +0.9 | $4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2029 | Arb-4 | $5M | +0.8 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $11M | $24M | +$14M | ||