Austin Shenton — OGILVIE

Austin Shenton1B Tacoma Rainiers

Age 28 L/R 6'0" / 205 lbs AAA HR -5% Svc 2.000S2 · Ctrl thru 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 250 proj PA

wRC+†85

AVG/OBP/SLG.207 / .290 / .367

PA250

HR8

K%31

BB%10

ISO161

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024

CONTACT40

Whiff%

3912.2%

xwOBA

350.291

POWER60

Barrel%

143.6

Avg EV

1083.9

Bat Spd

2868.9

EYE60

Chase%

9021.7%

SPEED45

Sprint

1025.2

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-2	$0.3M	—	—	—
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	21	A	West Virginia Power	—	134	124	25	6	1	4	6	37	3	0	0	202	256	363	619	161	250	28	4	258	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A	West Virginia Power	—	134	119	30	7	1	5	11	29	3	0	0	252	331	454	785	202	291	22	8	345	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+	2 teams	—	372	335	77	23	3	11	27	121	8	1	0	230	303	415	718	185	322	33	7	307	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+	2 teams	—	372	315	93	32	3	14	47	87	8	1	0	295	400	549	949	254	366	23	13	413	174	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	228	203	39	6	1	8	20	85	3	0	0	192	274	350	624	158	277	37	9	272	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	228	195	46	9	1	8	28	70	3	0	0	236	341	415	756	179	319	31	12	337	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA	2 teams	—	577	508	134	39	0	21	59	186	6	0	0	264	347	465	812	201	370	32	10	352	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA	2 teams	—	577	473	144	45	0	29	94	154	6	0	0	304	426	584	1.009	279	391	27	16	436	192	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA	2 teams	—	413	365	79	15	1	16	43	142	3	0	0	216	304	395	699	178	301	34	10	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA	2 teams	—	413	352	89	17	1	21	56	124	3	0	0	253	360	486	846	233	325	30	14	372	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	352	315	49	13	0	8	30	111	4	0	0	156	238	273	511	117	206	32	9	231	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	352	300	65	17	0	14	45	92	4	0	0	217	327	413	740	197	259	26	13	330	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	28	MLB	SEA	—	250	222	46	11	0	8	24	78	2	1	0	207	290	365	655	158	281	31	10	297	85	-4	+0	+1	-4	+7	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	SEA	27%	380	337	72	17	1	12	36	117	4	1	0	214	297	377	674	163	281	31	9	297	86	-6	+0	-0	-7	+11	-0.2
2027	29	MLB	SEA	27%	104	92	19	5	0	3	10	32	1	0	0	207	291	359	650	152	278	31	10	287	78	-3	+0	-0	-2	+3	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	154	134	28	10	0	4	18	46	1	0	0	209	307	373	680	164	282	30	12	303	90	-2	+0	+0	-9	+4	-0.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	566	118	42	0	17	76	194	4	0	0	208	307	373	679	164	281	30	12	303	90	-7	+0	+2	-39	+18	-2.6
Career	—			—	2706	2409	521	130	7	88	245	877	33	3	0	216	297	386	683	169	296	32	9	299	87	-40	+1	+1	-48	+77	-1.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	125	31	2	21	59	211	8	1	0	216	297	385	682	169	296	32	9	299	87	-10	+0	+0	-12	+18	-0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	21	A	West Virginia Power	—	134	119	30	7	1	5	11	29	3	0	0	252	331	454	785	202	291	22	8	345	122	+3	+0	—	—	+4	0.7
2021	23	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	99	91	27	8	0	3	6	25	1	0	0	297	347	484	830	187	375	25	6	363	136	+4	+0	—	—	+3	0.7
2021	23	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	273	224	66	24	3	11	41	62	7	1	0	295	419	576	995	281	362	23	15	431	188	+27	+0	—	—	+8	3.6
2022	24	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	228	195	46	9	1	8	28	70	3	0	0	236	341	415	756	179	319	31	12	337	116	+4	+0	—	—	+6	1.1
2023	25	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	271	219	66	24	0	14	48	75	3	0	0	301	433	603	1.036	301	397	28	18	446	200	+31	+0	—	—	+8	3.9
2023	25	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	306	254	78	21	0	15	46	79	3	0	0	307	419	567	986	260	387	26	15	426	184	+29	+0	—	—	+9	3.9
2024	26	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	50	42	9	5	0	1	8	14	0	0	0	214	340	405	745	190	296	28	16	336	115	+1	+0	+1	-7	+1	-0.5
2024	26	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	363	310	80	12	1	20	48	110	3	0	0	258	363	497	860	239	330	30	13	377	147	+19	+0	—	—	+10	3.0
2025	27	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	352	300	65	17	0	14	45	92	4	0	0	217	327	413	740	197	259	26	13	330	111	+4	+0	—	—	+10	1.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	50	42	9	5	0	1	8	14	0	0	0	214	340	405	745	190	296	28	16	336	115	+1	+0	+1	-7	+1	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Austin Shenton (OGILVIE)	28	40	60	45	60	207/290/367	159	281	8	1	31%	10%	85	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Daniel Palka 2021 · MLB	29	38→44	53→55	44→50	44	206/270/375	170	267	22	5	32%	8%	78	+0.2	223/285/394	171	285	22	5	29%	8%	89	+0.9	217/279/385	168	275	23	3	29%	8%	80	+0.3
✕Darick Hall 2022 · AAA	27	39→40	49→55	41→40	44	204/277/354	150	261	16	4	28%	7%	76	+0.0	222/276/398	176	271	24	4	27%	6%	86	+0.8	218/272/389	171	262	24	3	27%	6%	80	+0.3
✕Alex Burg 2016 · AAA	28	44→40	51→50	44→40	46	224/299/381	157	295	19	3	30%	9%	92	+1.2	208/268/341	133	272	15	5	28%	6%	67	-0.5	175/228/284	109	227	11	2	28%	5%	33	-1.5
✕John-Ford Griffin 2008 · AAA	28	39	53→55	49→40	42	211/266/382	171	269	21	5	30%	7%	78	+0.2	223/281/367	144	289	15	6	27%	7%	79	+0.3	225/285/357	132	289	12	4	25%	6%	77	+0.1
✕Greg Bird 2022 · MLB	29	36→46	52→55	43→30	45	198/268/358	160	252	20	3	30%	8%	72	-0.2	204/268/341	137	272	16	7	30%	7%	68	-0.5	175/244/283	108	235	13	4	30%	8%	40	-1.0
✕Joe Koshansky 2010 · MLB	28	38→46	53→60	45→40	40	201/266/371	170	292	21	5	38%	8%	76	+0.0	195/265/351	156	297	20	6	39%	7%	69	-0.4	178/254/329	151	266	22	4	40%	8%	59	-0.6
✕Ka'ai Tom 2022 · MLB	28	41→50	50→55	49→50	45	210/293/369	158	277	17	6	30%	8%	86	+0.8	205/285/335	130	292	14	10	33%	8%	74	-0.1	187/270/313	126	271	14	10	34%	8%	58	-0.6
✕Billy McKinney 2023 · MLB	28	41→51	49→55	53→45	46	207/285/359	152	283	16	5	32%	9%	79	+0.3	221/299/375	154	288	19	7	28%	9%	90	+1.0	214/296/366	152	268	19	6	27%	9%	83	+0.3
✕Andy Wilkins 2018 · MLB	29	35→45	51→55	50→45	43	195/258/352	157	251	20	5	31%	8%	67	-0.5	187/255/354	167	271	23	6	38%	8%	66	-0.6	144/218/315	171	193	26	2	41%	8%	39	-0.9
✕Matt Clark 2014 · AAA	27	43→49	49→60	44→30	42	221/276/367	146	292	18	3	30%	7%	78	+0.2	231/284/412	181	280	26	3	27%	6%	93	+1.3	226/281/409	183	271	26	0	27%	6%	89	+0.8
✕Brandon Allen 2014 · MLB	28	41→47	52→55	52→50	44	217/277/388	171	275	19	7	29%	8%	83	+0.6	214/276/351	137	271	15	5	26%	8%	73	-0.1	203/270/324	121	255	14	3	25%	8%	63	-0.5
●Ryan O'Hearn 2021 · MLB	28	41→51	53→60	44→45	50	215/294/388	173	269	20	3	28%	10%	92	+1.2	245/299/422	177	300	23	6	26%	7%	102	+1.8	274/351/443	169	311	21	3	18%	9%	124	+2.6
✕Preston Tucker 2018 · MLB	28	40→46	51→55	41→40	44	214/268/376	162	253	20	3	25%	6%	77	+0.1	222/276/365	143	260	15	5	21%	6%	77	+0.1	232/310/385	153	274	16	1	21%	8%	95	+0.6
✕Christin Stewart 2022 · MLB	28	41→50	55→60	47→45	41	219/279/402	183	282	23	4	31%	6%	89	+0.9	212/292/392	180	299	24	10	35%	9%	92	+1.2	185/286/359	175	256	26	11	37%	11%	78	+0.1
✕Stewart Ijames 2017 · AA	28	37	52→65	43→45	39	199/260/367	167	280	21	5	36%	7%	72	-0.2	205/268/344	139	314	16	8	37%	7%	69	-0.4	173/241/320	147	270	19	6	42%	8%	51	-0.4
✕Jeff Clement 2012 · MLB	28	43→48	50→55	40→30	41	224/271/379	155	281	17	4	27%	6%	79	+0.3	212/257/361	149	267	16	3	26%	6%	68	-0.5	202/248/353	151	250	16	1	26%	6%	59	-0.9
✕Matt Skole 2017 · AAA	28	37→40	50	46→40	44	198/262/343	146	248	19	3	29%	8%	66	-0.6	191/256/328	137	252	16	3	30%	8%	59	-1.1	175/249/299	124	238	15	1	32%	8%	48	-1.3
✕Chris Jacobs 2016 · AAA	27	44→41	49→55	46→40	43	223/297/369	146	307	18	3	32%	8%	88	+0.9	217/273/324	107	324	11	6	34%	6%	65	-0.7	187/220/268	81	294	13	0	40%	3%	24	-0.7
✕Jeff Larish 2012 · MLB	29	43→46	54→55	43→45	44	226/291/406	180	295	22	4	31%	8%	95	+1.4	201/270/336	135	299	14	6	35%	8%	67	-0.5	159/239/256	97	252	4	0	35%	10%	30	-1.1
●José Marmolejos 2021 · MLB	28	46→52	49→55	43→30	41	236/279/386	150	292	18	3	26%	6%	84	+0.6	263/328/488	225	317	31	4	26%	9%	131	+3.9	275/348/529	254	321	36	0	26%	10%	150	+4.1