Gregory Santos — OGILVIE

Gregory Santos P Sacramento River Cats

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 236 lbs AAA Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 0.6 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION24 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9788vR 80

ERA3.42

FIP3.33

K%25.0%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%17.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 30 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†6060

SI (22%)

SL (61%)

FB-1.6 (39%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.2M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-2	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-3	$4M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	16	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox 2	16	10	41	188	25	26	1	62%	2.6	9.0%	17.3%	-8.2%	0.7%	4.17	4.93	—
2016	16	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox 2	16	10	41	188	25	26	1	62%	2.6	13.3%	13.8%	-0.5%	0.5%	4.17	4.10	—
2017	17	ROK MLE	DSL Giants	12	12	49	206	41	20	2	100%	4.1	13.5%	12.1%	1.4%	1.4%	1.29	4.24	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	DSL Giants	12	12	49	206	41	20	2	100%	4.1	19.9%	9.7%	10.2%	1.0%	1.29	3.18	—
2019	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	8	8	35	143	26	9	4	100%	4.3	13.5%	7.4%	6.0%	3.4%	2.86	4.75	—
2019	19	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	8	8	35	143	26	9	4	100%	4.3	18.2%	6.3%	11.9%	2.8%	2.86	3.88	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	18	86	18	11	4	0%	1.0	18.1%	12.9%	5.1%	1.5%	7.13	4.04	+0.1
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	0	18	86	18	11	4	0%	1.0	20.9%	12.8%	8.1%	4.7%	7.13	5.87	-0.3
2022	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	37	2	39	173	39	23	4	5%	1.0	20.2%	14.2%	6.0%	3.0%	4.66	4.84	-0.1
2022	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	37	2	39	173	39	23	4	5%	1.0	22.5%	13.3%	9.2%	2.3%	4.66	4.21	+0.2
2023	23	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	60	0	66	289	66	16	2	0%	1.1	22.8%	5.5%	17.3%	0.7%	3.39	2.25	+1.8
2023	23	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	60	0	66	289	66	16	2	0%	1.1	22.8%	5.5%	17.3%	0.7%	3.39	2.25	+1.8
2023	23	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	60	0	66	289	66	16	2	0%	1.1	22.8%	5.5%	17.3%	0.7%	3.39	2.23	+1.9
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	0	15	62	14	8	0	0%	0.9	22.6%	12.9%	9.7%	0.0%	3.07	2.83	+0.3
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	0	15	62	14	8	0	0%	0.9	22.6%	12.9%	9.7%	0.0%	3.07	2.83	+0.3
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	0	15	62	14	8	0	0%	0.9	22.6%	12.9%	9.7%	0.0%	3.07	2.83	+0.3
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	12	62	5	15	0	0%	0.9	8.1%	24.2%	-16.1%	0.0%	5.25	5.48	-0.1
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	12	62	5	15	0	0%	0.9	8.1%	24.2%	-16.1%	0.0%	5.25	5.48	-0.1
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	0	12	62	5	15	0	0%	0.9	8.1%	24.2%	-16.1%	0.0%	5.25	6.02	-0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			84	0	91	408	78	31	5	0%	1.1	19.1%	7.6%	11.5%	1.2%	4.14	3.12	+1.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	19	3	24	111	14	15	1	16%	1.2	11.9%	12.9%	-1.0%	1.4%	5.70	4.51	—
YTD	26	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	19	3	24	111	14	15	1	16%	1.2	11.9%	12.9%	-1.0%	1.4%	5.70	4.51	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	ROK RAW	SF	2	2	3	12	2	1	0	100%	1.5	16.7%	8.3%	8.3%	0.0%	3.00	2.75	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	SF	14	1	16	77	11	11	1	7%	1.1	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	1.3%	6.89	4.42	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	SF	3	0	5	22	1	3	0	0%	1.7	4.5%	13.6%	-9.1%	0.0%	3.60	4.44	—
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	SF	3	0	5	22	1	3	0	0%	1.7	4.5%	13.6%	-9.1%	0.0%	3.60	4.44	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	SF	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	25.0%	7.8%	17.2%	2.5%	3.42	3.33	+0.1
ROS	26	MLB CTX	SF	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	25.0%	7.8%	17.2%	2.3%	3.32	3.23	+0.1
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	30	136	20	17	2	—	—	14.9%	12.5%	2.4%	1.2%	5.25	4.28	+0.1
FULL	26	MLB A+C	SF	—	—	11	46	20	17	2	—	—	44.0%	37.0%	7.1%	3.4%	14.23	5.94	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	SF	66	0	70	295	73	24	7	0%	1.1	24.7%	8.1%	16.6%	2.5%	3.80	3.78	+0.7
2028	28	MLB MLE	SF	64	0	68	286	70	24	7	0%	1.1	24.5%	8.3%	16.2%	2.6%	3.88	3.90	+0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	SF	62	0	65	273	65	23	8	0%	1.0	23.8%	8.6%	15.3%	2.8%	4.01	4.08	+0.4
2027	27	MLB CTX	SF	63	0	66	279	69	22	6	0%	1.0	24.7%	8.1%	16.6%	2.3%	3.70	3.68	+0.6
2028	28	MLB CTX	SF	61	0	64	270	66	22	7	0%	1.0	24.5%	8.3%	16.2%	2.4%	3.77	3.79	+0.5
2029	29	MLB CTX	SF	58	0	61	258	61	22	7	0%	1.1	23.8%	8.6%	15.3%	2.6%	3.90	3.97	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		273	0	289	1244	282	100	25	0%	1.1	22.6%	8.1%	14.6%	2.0%	3.89	3.32	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		188	0	200	860	195	69	17	0%	1.1	22.6%	8.1%	14.6%	2.0%	3.89	3.32	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		199	35	298	1320	213	157	19	18%	1.5	16.1%	11.9%	4.2%	1.4%	3.72	4.04	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		134	24	200	887	143	106	13	18%	1.5	16.1%	11.9%	4.2%	1.4%	3.72	4.04	+2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gregory Santos (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.56	26.4%	7.5%	2.5%	—	3.92	24.4%	16.0%	202	+0.36	—	—	—
Sam Wolff R 2017 · 3.40 FIP	26	SU	3.40	26.6%	8.0%	2.8%	.291	2.98	24.1%	13.3%	63	-0.42	2.66	178	76
Neil Ramírez R 2015 · 3.21 FIP	26	SU	3.21	25.0%	10.0%	1.7%	.289	4.75	28.3%	17.6%	151	+1.54	3.21	220	74
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	74
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	73
Jonathan Aro R 2017 · 3.72 FIP	26	SU	3.72	25.3%	6.9%	3.4%	.252	3.56	14.6%	8.1%	108	-0.16	2.57	323	73
Scott Oberg R 2016 · 3.19 FIP	26	SU	3.19	22.9%	9.1%	1.6%	.260	2.92	23.8%	16.4%	188	-0.27	2.54	302	72
Kyle Winkler R 2016 · 3.70 FIP	26	SU	3.70	23.1%	8.7%	2.6%	.234	3.53	18.4%	8.3%	43	-0.17	2.97	114	72
Simon Castro R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	26.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.320	3.58	26.0%	17.6%	128	+0.30	3.01	185	72
Michael Dimock R 2016 · 3.91 FIP	26	SU	3.91	26.8%	9.8%	3.3%	.289	3.79	20.9%	11.9%	66	-0.12	3.08	166	72
Matt Ramsey R 2017 · 3.25 FIP	27	SU	3.25	24.2%	9.6%	1.8%	.330	3.21	23.6%	14.6%	81	-0.04	2.42	125	71
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	71
Trevin Michael R 2023 · 2.66 FIP	25	SU	2.66	23.2%	8.3%	0.9%	.330	3.83	23.4%	12.9%	159	+1.17	2.66	198	71
Zac Leigh R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	28.1%	11.7%	3.0%	.282	4.58	19.9%	3.7%	131	+0.74	3.70	201	71
Alex Hoppe R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	24	SU	4.21	23.7%	9.2%	3.5%	.371	3.94	20.7%	8.7%	184	-0.27	3.13	233	71
Cory Mazzoni R 2015 · 2.62 FIP	25	SU	2.62	24.9%	8.5%	1.0%	.374	3.01	23.4%	18.7%	59	+0.39	0.78	101	71
Jhan Mariñez R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	26	SU	3.50	23.1%	9.3%	2.1%	.244	3.70	18.9%	11.1%	168	+0.20	3.16	253	71
Alex Powers R 2018 · 2.99 FIP	26	SU	2.99	25.8%	6.4%	2.3%	.257	3.55	26.5%	16.8%	98	+0.56	2.82	264	71
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.42	20.8%	10.2%	92	+0.11	3.89	168	71
Kaleb Fleck R 2015 · 2.68 FIP	26	SU	2.68	25.8%	9.8%	0.9%	.331	3.88	21.8%	13.2%	125	+1.20	2.68	177	70
Zach McAllister R 2015 · 2.82 FIP	27	SU	2.82	28.1%	6.4%	2.4%	.333	3.88	23.5%	16.0%	159	+1.06	2.82	363	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	68	24.9%	8.1%	1.00	3.83
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63