Gregory Santos
P
Sacramento River Cats
+1.2
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'3" / 236 lbs
AAA
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 1.0 · 2026
ERA3.78
FIP4.03
xFIP7.89
SIERA8.35
K%23.3%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%15.0%
IP66
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2026
K†6060
FB Velo
p8897.2
Whiff%
p8030.0%
K%
p5322.8%
xwOBA vs
p850.278
SI (22%)
SL (61%)
FB-1.6 (39%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 16 | ROK | DSL Red Sox 2 | 16 | 10 | 41 | 188 | 25 | 26 | 1 | 9.0% | 17.3% | 0.7% | 4.17 | 4.93 | +0.0 |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | DSL Giants | 12 | 12 | 49 | 206 | 41 | 20 | 2 | 13.5% | 12.1% | 1.4% | 1.29 | 4.24 | +0.4 |
| 2019 | 19 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 8 | 8 | 35 | 143 | 26 | 9 | 4 | 13.5% | 7.4% | 3.3% | 2.86 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 21 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 17 | 0 | 18 | 86 | 18 | 11 | 4 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.5% | 7.13 | 4.04 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 22 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 37 | 2 | 39 | 173 | 39 | 23 | 4 | 20.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | 4.66 | 4.84 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 23 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 60 | 0 | 66 | 289 | 66 | 16 | 2 | 22.8% | 5.5% | 0.7% | 3.39 | 2.24 | +2.1 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 16 | 0 | 15 | 62 | 14 | 8 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.07 | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 14 | 0 | 12 | 62 | 5 | 15 | 0 | — | — | — | 5.25 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 4 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 3 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.29 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | SF | 12 | 12 | 66 | 280 | 72 | 23 | 7 | 25.9% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 3.67 | 3.69 | +1.0 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | SF | — | — | 73 | 306 | 75 | 26 | 7 | 24.7% | 8.5% | 2.3% | 3.44 | 3.34 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SF | 12 | 12 | 66 | 278 | 71 | 23 | 7 | 25.7% | 8.3% | 2.5% | 3.75 | 3.76 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SF | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 70 | 23 | 7 | 25.4% | 8.5% | 2.6% | 3.81 | 3.83 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | SF | 12 | 12 | 63 | 267 | 66 | 23 | 7 | 24.9% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 3.89 | 3.93 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | SF | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 63 | 23 | 7 | 24.3% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 3.97 | 4.03 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | SF | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 59 | 22 | 7 | 23.7% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.07 | 4.13 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | SF | 57 | — | 57 | 240 | 55 | 22 | 7 | 23.0% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.25 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | SF | 54 | — | 54 | 229 | 51 | 21 | 7 | 22.4% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.38 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | SF | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 47 | 20 | 7 | 21.7% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.52 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | SF | 49 | — | 49 | 205 | 43 | 20 | 7 | 20.9% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.57 | 4.67 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | SF | 45 | — | 45 | 192 | 39 | 19 | 6 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.73 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 184 | 32 | 281 | 1235 | 203 | 146 | 17 | 16.4% | 11.8% | 1.4% | 3.49 | 3.98 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 131 | 23 | 200 | 879 | 144 | 104 | 12 | 16.4% | 11.8% | 1.4% | 3.49 | 3.98 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Gregory Santos (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.69 | 25.9% | 8.2% | 2.5% | — | 3.84 | 25.3% | 16.9% | 194 | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| Sam Wolff R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.36 | 26.6% | 8.0% | 2.7% | .291 | 2.98 | 24.1% | 13.3% | 63 | -0.38 | 2.67 | 178 | 76 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2028 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 75 |
| Neil Ramírez R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.10 | 25.0% | 10.0% | 1.5% | .289 | 4.77 | 28.3% | 17.6% | 151 | +1.67 | 3.10 | 220 | 75 |
| Tucker Healy R 2026 · 2.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 2.83 | 30.4% | 10.5% | 1.8% | .294 | 4.61 | 16.9% | 5.8% | 67 | +1.78 | 2.83 | 174 | 74 |
| Simon Castro R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.26 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .320 | 3.48 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.22 | 3.07 | 185 | 74 |
| Zach McAllister R 2027 · 2.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 2.83 | 28.1% | 6.4% | 2.4% | .333 | 3.89 | 23.5% | 16.0% | 159 | +1.06 | 2.83 | 363 | 73 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.86 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .242 | 2.97 | 25.1% | 15.7% | 62 | -0.89 | 2.97 | 167 | 73 |
| Scott Oberg R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.24 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .260 | 2.93 | 23.8% | 16.4% | 188 | -0.31 | 2.59 | 302 | 72 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 2.39 FIP | 26 | SW | 2.39 | 24.8% | 6.2% | 1.1% | .297 | 4.37 | 21.6% | 11.8% | 153 | +1.98 | 2.39 | 676 | 72 |
| Kaleb Fleck R 2026 · 2.68 FIP | 26 | SW | 2.68 | 25.8% | 9.8% | 0.9% | .331 | 3.89 | 21.8% | 13.2% | 125 | +1.21 | 2.68 | 177 | 72 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 72 |
| Jaden Hill R 2025 · 2.56 FIP | 25 | SU | 2.56 | 28.4% | 7.7% | 1.6% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 129 | 72 |
| Jonathan Aro R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.71 | 25.3% | 6.9% | 3.4% | .252 | 3.57 | 14.6% | 8.1% | 108 | -0.14 | 2.57 | 323 | 71 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 71 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.52 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .244 | 3.73 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.21 | 3.18 | 253 | 71 |
| Ben Heller R 2025 · 2.93 FIP | 25 | SW | 2.93 | 32.4% | 9.4% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 246 | 71 |
| Alex Powers R 2026 · 2.95 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.95 | 25.8% | 6.4% | 2.2% | .257 | 3.54 | 26.5% | 16.8% | 98 | +0.59 | 2.81 | 264 | 71 |
| C.C. Lee R 2028 · 2.58 FIP | 28 | SW | 2.58 | 23.9% | 7.0% | 1.1% | .323 | 3.07 | 30.9% | 21.5% | 63 | +0.49 | 2.58 | 121 | 71 |
| James Farris R 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.73 | 24.4% | 6.6% | 3.4% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 170 | 71 |
| Brandon Maurer R 2026 · 2.98 FIP | 26 | SW | 2.98 | 24.0% | 6.0% | 2.1% | .286 | 4.28 | 21.0% | 11.4% | 114 | +1.30 | 2.98 | 234 | 71 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-1
MLB Debut 2023
Service 3.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2028
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $0.1M | +1.0 | $8M | +$8M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $5M | +0.9 | $4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $7M | +0.9 | $4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $8M | $16M | +$8M | ||